Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
The Inside Story of How France Clinched the EU’s New Customs Authority
France secured Lille as the headquarters of the EU’s new Customs Authority after a three‑round vote, clinching exactly 36 votes in the final round. The agency, staffed by 250 officials, will coordinate customs enforcement across the bloc’s 27 member states to manage the exploding volume of e‑commerce parcels. France’s success stemmed from an early‑bird bid, extensive diplomatic lobbying by President Macron and trade ministers, and a polished multilingual dossier. The authority is slated to become fully operational by 2028, reinforcing EU trade security.
UK Leads 35‑Nation Virtual Talks to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
"UK to host talks with 35 countries on reopening Strait of Hormuz," @Reuters https://t.co/Hp8s7zc1T7 British foreign minister Yvette Cooper will chair the virtual meeting of about 35 countries including France, Germany, Italy, Canada and the United Arab Emirates around midday in...
Russia Bans Gasoline Exports as More Refineries Hit
Russia announced a full ban on gasoline exports from April 2 through July 31, expanding earlier limits to include all producers, including refineries. The decision follows a string of refinery outages that have shaved roughly 10% off domestic fuel output. By halting...
Immediate Reopening of Strait of Hormuz Demanded at 40-Nation Talks
British Foreign Minister Yvette Cooper led a UK‑coordinated gathering of roughly 40 nations that called for the immediate, unconditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The meeting reiterated demand for freedom of navigation after the strait has been virtually shut...
Fertilizer Traders Cash in on War Profits, Farmers Pay the Price
American fertilizer traders are re‑exporting over 100,000 short tons of phosphate fertilizer after the Iran war created a price gap between U.S. spot markets and overseas demand. Domestic prices linger around $700 per short ton while farmers cut back on...
10‑Year Yield
Another big development last week was that the 10-year Treasury yield rose sharply to 4.48%. The chart below shows that the yield has continued to coil in a large triangle, and could be on the verge of a break-out. Meanwhile,...
Iran Conflict Set to Ripple Through U.S. Supply Chains
The supply chain impacts from the war in Iran are starting to build up. Americans will likely feel the ripples.
Iran Drafts Protocol with Oman for Strait of Hormuz Traffic
Iran’s deputy foreign minister confirmed a draft protocol with Oman to monitor traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing safety rather than restrictions. The agreement, described as post‑war housekeeping, includes plans to levy tolls on transiting vessels. Tehran frames the...
China to Curb Gas Power, Replace LNG with Coal, Renewables
China’s exposure to the loss of Middle East LNG China will likely reduce its liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports in response to the loss of supplies from the Middle East and higher spot prices mostly by curbing gas-fired power generation and...
Fed's Logan: I Wasn't Convinced Inflation Was Easing Enough Even Before the War Started
Dallas Fed President Logan said he remains unconvinced that inflation is easing sufficiently, even before the Ukraine war escalated. He highlighted the difficulty of forecasting amid geopolitical uncertainty, but noted that a swift war resolution could limit economic damage. Logan stressed...
Asian Buyers Remain Wary of Iran Oil Sanctions Waiver
The Trump administration issued a 30‑day waiver that temporarily allows Iranian crude to be sold at sea, aiming to ease global oil market pressure. Two weeks after the announcement, Asian buyers remain hesitant, citing heightened compliance and reputational risks. The...
Negotiation Hints Ease Dollar Safe‑Haven Demand
Geopolitical Relief: Markets reacted positively to hints of potential negotiations in the West Asia conflict, which slightly cooled the "safe-haven" demand for the US dollar, despite ongoing volatility in crude oil prices.
Ortec Finance: Macro Hedging for US Pension Stability
Ortec Finance released a whitepaper titled “From Volatility to Stability,” highlighting how declining interest rates expose U.S. pension funds to balance‑sheet risk. The paper uses a stylised case study to show that strategic interest‑rate hedging can materially reduce downside risk....
Dallas Fed Chief Defends Ample‑reserves, Rejects Tiered Quotas
In a speech this morning, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan delivers a clear defense of the ample-reserves framework at a moment when others (Warsh/Bessent) have implied a course correction would be desirable. In the speech and a far more detailed...
US Crude Tops US$110, Wall Street Falls After Trump Vows More Iran Attacks
U.S. crude oil spiked to $111.92 a barrel, up nearly 12% after President Trump pledged continued strikes on Iran for the next two to three weeks. The aggressive rhetoric sent the S&P 500 down 1.1%, the Dow off 1.2% and the...
CCIL Imposes Volatility Margin on Dollar-Rupee Forwards Amid Market Swings
The Clearing Corporation of India (CCIL) has imposed a 20 % volatility margin on dollar‑rupee forward contracts, effective immediately. The move follows sharp market swings after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) tightened arbitrage restrictions, pushing the 1‑year implied USD‑INR yield...
Trump Is Preparing 100% Tariffs on some Drugmakers, Documents Show
President Donald Trump is preparing to announce 100% tariffs on select pharmaceutical products, according to a draft memo obtained by Endpoints News. The tariffs would apply to a limited group of drugmakers, targeting high‑priced brand‑name drugs rather than the entire...
The Macro Implications of Chipflation
AI‑driven data‑center expansion and heightened defense spending have pushed semiconductor prices sharply higher, with DRAM costs rising roughly 17‑fold over the past year. This demand surge is concentrated in developed Asian economies—Japan, South Korea and Taiwan—where advanced chip production fuels a...
What the Iran War Could Mean for Stocks, Bonds and Growth
The ongoing Iran‑Gulf conflict is already weighing on global markets, with oil supply disruptions driving higher energy prices. Investor sentiment swings between brief equity rallies sparked by President Trump’s optimistic remarks and swift pullbacks as fighting persists. Analysts warn that...
US Trade Deficit Widens in February As Imports Offset Record Exports
The U.S. trade deficit widened 4.9% in February, reaching $57.3 billion as a 4.3% jump in imports offset a record‑high $314.8 billion export total. Imports were buoyed by AI‑related capital equipment, while goods exports surged 5.9% to an all‑time high. The goods...
India Approaches Fertilizer Producers as Iran War Curbs Supplies
India is actively courting major nitrogen and phosphatic fertilizer producers to secure direct imports as the Iran‑related conflict disrupts traditional supply routes. Officials have opened talks with Russia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Algeria and Egypt, while also seeking urea from China....
![[Guest Post] The WTO's Tale of Two Dispute Systems](/cdn-cgi/image/width=1200,quality=75,format=auto,fit=cover/https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7d71XcfP8iFrV-RMw2J8MiC0Vs2mxwAOaiPUF9QJKj5LgZCzGYl2eNGMiUPOB1KRT9aZcMspFCOiXu3LKymeJvd8FzpherV8q5-F6Uwc4TYEqCdWLhdc-pxiUZwTFIGhZVHQDBGrgcRbFToK8vpsIQV_X9yACN_h0opOhq2Kbty1maO5rMR0dwA/s72-c/A%20cat%20outside%20the%20World%20Trade%20Organization%20on%20a%20su.png)
[Guest Post] The WTO's Tale of Two Dispute Systems
The WTO’s 14th Ministerial Conference in Yaoundé downplayed dispute‑settlement reform, leaving the Multi‑Party Interim Appeal Arbitration Arrangement (MPIA) as the de‑facto appellate mechanism. Since the Appellate Body stalled in 2019, the MPIA has delivered two arbitration awards, including a landmark...
Total Nonfarm Payrolls for March 2026 Are Projected to Rise By 60,000
The median forecast for March 2026 non‑farm payrolls predicts a gain of 60,000 jobs, a sharp rebound after February’s 92,000‑job decline. This estimate far exceeds the 12‑month average increase of 13,000, indicating a potential turnaround in hiring momentum. Unemployment is expected...
Australia Turns to Less-Established Urea Origins
Australia’s urea importers are scrambling for new sources after the Strait of Hormuz closure halted the Gulf region, which normally supplies about two‑thirds of the country’s fertilizer needs. Importers have turned to Egypt and Nigeria, but both face Australian Quarantine...
Singapore Bunker Supply Continues to Run Down as Middle East War Drags On
Singapore, the world’s largest bunkering hub, sold 56.2 million metric tons of bunker fuel in 2025, a 3.2% increase year‑over‑year. Over half of its fuel imports travel through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed since the Middle East...
Interview with Turkiye's Diplomacy 02.04.2026
In this episode of Turkey's Diplomacy, financial consultant Laurent Lecoe explains that the ongoing Iran war, dubbed Operation Epic Fury, is pushing the global economy into stagflation, with rising inflation and stagnant growth. He highlights how oil supply disruptions are...
Shift From GDP to Statecraft for Better Forecasts
This YouTube video in 45 minutes explains the bigger picture of the world right now. It makes a lot of sense. You can have your own political opinions, but what is unfolding globally follows a clear logic. Michael Every has actually forecasted many...
Sovereign Spreads Lag Behind FX in Pricing Fundamentals
also interesting that sovereign spreads have widened—you’ve seen terms of trade differentiation in FX but sov debt has been slower to price differing country-by-country macro fundamentals
Extremely Hard Indeed
Asian equity markets slumped after President Trump’s hard‑line remarks on Iran, with the Korean market leading losses while India posted a modest gain. Mainland Chinese investors poured roughly $1.1 billion into the Hong Kong Tracker ETF via Southbound Stock Connect, bringing...
Markets Hold Steady Amid Iran-Oman Hormuz Protocol
IRAN: DRAFTING PROTOCOL WITH OMAN FOR HORMUZ STRAIT TRAFFIC Interesting that the stock market holding steady today after yesterday's address by President Trump. When stocks stop going down on bad news, worth paying attention.
61% of Americans Anticipate Recession Within Year
The latest Ipsos Consumer Tracker finds that 61% of Americans expect a recession within the next 12 months. While recession storm clouds are gathering, a slowdown is BAKED IN THE CAKE. https://t.co/uijU8le8FD
IMF Says US Fed Has Little Scope for Rate Cuts This Year
The International Monetary Fund’s latest Article IV review finds U.S. inflation on track to meet the Federal Reserve’s 2 % target in early 2027, but signals minimal room for rate cuts this year. IMF staff project only a single policy rate reduction...
Core Truflation Below Headline Signals Consumer Spending Cut
"If you look at Truflation, you are seeing core Truflation running below headline, it is telling you that consumers are already cutting back on discretionary purchase." https://t.co/AZWaQ8HgmF #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #economy https://t.co/3Qh0AXdqub
Markets Overreact, Then Calm After Political Shocks
Trump knows the market stops overreacting given enough time to digest Happened with the tarrifs too - as 'Liberation Day' grew 4+ weeks old... the market became indifferent and started going up anyway So far, it's happening again with the Iran War
Big Hedge Funds Post Mixed Q1 Returns as Geopolitical Turmoil Hits Markets
In the first quarter, hedge funds delivered uneven results: Balyasny Asset Management fell 3.8% year‑to‑date, while Schonfeld Strategic Advisors posted a modest 0.9% gain. The divergence reflects heightened market stress from the Iran‑Israel war, rising oil prices and a sharp...
Europe Gas Rises on Middle East Risks; US Prices Fall
European natural gas prices (TTF) are up 6% to about $17/mmbtu on fears that a prolonged disruption in the Middle East will curb supply 🇪🇺 US gas prices (Henry Hub) are down nearly 1% to $2.8/mmbtu as shale production keeps...
Trump's Trade War Threatens Universal Tech Standards
"The global trade war that Donald Trump launched one year ago didn’t just temporarily raise tariffs. It may have also broken the global system that lets technologies like Bluetooth work everywhere." https://t.co/NbTovpYALy
Post‑
This is the best retrospective analysis of Liberation Day-vintage tariff price effect estimates versus reality that I've seen. Post-Liberation Day policy changes, trade exceptions/loopholes, and passthrough uncertainty have been key.
Iran War and Hormuz Blockade: A Marathon, Not Sprint
"Pace yourself. The Iran War and Hormuz closure is a marathon, not a sprint." https://t.co/BU5JGk7A7w
Iran War Prep, UK Drift, China Gains: US Crisis
Devastating frontpage for America. 1/ Iran preparing for prolonged war 2/ UK leaning away from US alliance 3/ strength in China's bond market due to the Iran war What a disaster. https://t.co/XMURlfO7uv
Detroit Fears Chinese Low‑cost High‑tech Cars Entering US
Detroit automakers fear an onslaught of low-cost, high-tech Chinese cars if Trump allows them to be built in the US. Not/not "cheap"....affordable... https://t.co/RL6s942EcW
JPMorgan Says US Must Reopen Hormuz, Doubts Iran's Credibility
JP Morgan’s chief strategist is on CNBC saying the Strait of Hormuz has to be reopened by the US because it’s unthinkable for that not to happen. It’s a ‘temporary oil issue.’ They still don’t believe Iran has any credibility. Amazing.
US Trade Deficit Grows in February Despite Record Exports
US Trade Deficit Widens in February As Imports Offset Record Exports. Capital goods. AI. Will the Iran war affect March? https://t.co/DKavl92Fdl
Iran Turns Hormuz Passage Into Paid ‘Peace’ Toll
Iran’s ‘Tollbooth’ Tightens Grip on Hormuz as Ships Offered Safe Passage—For a Price. Will this be the “peace” of the war? https://t.co/cD3EleDx1i
Missed BoE Chief Economist's Speech—Another Insightful Cracker
sad I missed this speech from the BoE's chief economist. Looks like another cracker https://t.co/Gu7E2vcUmX
Erdoğan Warns War Extension Could Spark Regional Conflict
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: President Erdoğan warned prolonging the war risks triggering a broader regional conflict, saying any new fronts would serve Israel’s “bloody strategy,” and vowed Turkey will act “without hesitation” to ensure peace. https://t.co/dy6Disl4Q7
War's Continuation Could Keep 10‑Year Rate Near 5
Thoughts? Certainly could happen but 10 yr could also be close to 5% if this war still rages
Manila, Hanoi, Putrajaya Pursue Separate Iran Energy Deals
Manila, Hanoi, and Putrajaya all seeking separate deals with Iran on energy access in the last few days …
Furman Downplays China's WTO Entry with Flimsy Arguments
Jason Furman does cheap tricks in his NYT column to claim China's admission to the WTO was not a big deal https://t.co/FNZax2GwwE Here's the deal https://t.co/0MyKWLtnWe
Trump’s Policies Engineered Massive Oil Spike and Recession
To @anasalhajji ‘s point, you’d be hard pressed to engineer a more perfect recipe for a major sustained spike in crude & products, with accompanying global recession and market crash, than what Trump’s crew has unleashed. The 12-D chess of...