Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Orbán–Zelensky Clash Deepens After Cash Seizure, Pipeline Dispute, and Kremlin Interference Fears
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky publicly threatened Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán after Budapest blocked the EU's €90 bn loan package for Kyiv. The dispute escalated over the shutdown of the Soviet‑era Druzhba oil pipeline, which Hungary claims Kyiv is withholding for political reasons, while the EU sanctions package against Russia remains stalled. Orbán’s recent meeting with Vladimir Putin and the detention of seven Ukrainian cash‑transport workers by Hungarian security forces have further inflamed tensions. The clash comes ahead of Hungary’s April 12 election, the most competitive in Orbán’s 16‑year tenure.
Labor Market Risk Outweighs Inflation Concerns This Cycle
There is a lot of chat about whether this will be "as bad" as 2022. From inflationary pov, unlikely. And CBs shouldn't be too worried about wage-price spirals, despite the endless overshoot. But my worry is that it tips labour...
$100 Oil Is Back
The episode examines the sudden surge of oil prices above $100 a barrel, driven by escalating attacks on Persian Gulf infrastructure amid the Iran‑Israel‑U.S. conflict. Journalists Luke Vargas and Joe Wallace explain how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz,...
Government Borrowing Costs Mount on Fears of Inflation Spike
Government gilt yields spiked on Monday as oil prices surged nearly 30%, reigniting fears of higher inflation and prolonged interest‑rate hikes. The 10‑year gilt rose 14 basis points, while the two‑year jumped over 23 basis points, reflecting market expectations that...
UK Businesses Urged to Prepare for EU Agri-Food Trade Reset
The UK government is urging food and farming firms to ready themselves for a new Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) agreement with the EU, slated to cut paperwork and inspections that have hampered trade since Brexit. Ministers say the deal could...
Tariffs Hurt Consumers: Trade Deficits Aren’t Bad
"I find myself repeating over and over again the arguments that Smith first made 250 years ago: Trade deficits are not inherently bad; imports are the source of real benefits to consumers; and trade expands the division of labor, raising...
Oil Prices Could Push Canadian Grocery Inflation Higher
Oil prices have breached $90 a barrel and could climb toward $100, reviving a pattern where energy spikes precede grocery inflation in Canada by six to nine months. Historical data shows each major oil surge lifts food price inflation by...
After Taking a Breather, Why Japan Stocks Could Keep Rising
Japan’s equity market has paused as the Iran‑Israel conflict lifts oil and gas prices, pulling TOPIX and the Nikkei down about 4% after strong YTD gains. Analysts argue the market remains fairly valued, with forward earnings multiples around 17.5×, and...
The Market Brief
Higher oil prices are increasingly aligning with rising interest rates, intensifying inflation pressures and prompting risk‑off sentiment across equity markets. Geopolitical shocks that push oil spikes tend to depress risk assets, though the effect fades once oil stabilises. The latest...
Iran Conflict Disrupts Agricultural Commodity Flows; South American Soymeal Washouts Reported
The Iran‑Israel‑US conflict has forced the cancellation of several South American soymeal and soybean cargoes destined for Iran, prompting exporters to consider washouts or rerouting. Soymeal premiums are under pressure as freight rates spike, especially on Atlantic routes, while Brazil’s...
Iran War and Oil Surge Amplify US Labor Market Risks
FYI, my latest article in the Financial Times discusses how the war in Iran and skyrocketing oil prices can compound the spillovers from an uncertain US labor market and financial strains in three market sectors. https://www.ft.com/content/418455bc-e177-46a4-8e25-44c837f49038 #economy #markets #oil #middleeastwar @financialtimes
European NATO Nations Reduce Reliance on US Arms Imports: SIPRI Data
European NATO members reduced the United States' share of major arms imports to 58% in the 2021‑2025 period, down from 64% in the previous five years. The decline coincides with a three‑fold increase in overall European defense spending after Russia’s...
Eurozone March Sentix Investor Confidence -3.1 vs -5.0 Expected
Eurozone Sentix investor confidence slipped to -3.1 in March, missing the -5.0 forecast but confirming a sharp reversal from the prior 4.2 reading. The expectations index collapsed to 3.5 from 15.8, while the current‑situation gauge fell to -9.5. The decline...
EU Buys 100% of Russian Arctic LNG Just 9 Months Before Planned Gas Ban
In February 2026 the European Union purchased every cargo from Russia’s Yamal LNG project, amounting to 1.54 million tonnes across 21 shipments, the first full‑yearly capture since 2018. The purchases came just nine months before the EU’s scheduled ban on Russian...
India's Shrimp Exports Surge Past Rs 50k Crore Amidst US Tariff Challenges
India’s shrimp exports are projected to exceed Rs 50,000 crore this fiscal, marking a 13‑15 % year‑on‑year rise after three years of stagnation. While shipments to the United States fell 15 %, the sector offset the loss by expanding into Vietnam, the EU and...
For a Country that Owns Ethiopia Airlines, EAC Is but a Sick Joke
The opinion piece argues that Ethiopia should be wary of joining the East African Community (EAC), citing systemic failures among current members. It highlights that several states have missed subscription payments, lack airspace integration, and prioritize arms spending over regional...
India’s New GDP Series to Dig Deeper Into District Economies
India’s statistical system is overhauling district‑level GDP measurement, shifting from a top‑down allocation model to a bottom‑up approach that uses granular data. The change, driven by the National Statistical Office and state directorates of economics and statistics, will incorporate new...
Rand Under Severe Pressure
The South African rand weakened to below R16.90 per US dollar, its lowest level since mid‑December, as oil prices surged more than 25% amid the expanding US‑Israeli conflict with Iran. Higher crude costs and heightened global risk aversion pressured the...
Iran's Strategic Oil Island Thrust Into the Spotlight as Middle East Conflict Escalates
Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export hub, handles roughly 90% of the country's crude and can load about 7 million barrels per day. As the U.S.-Israel war on Iran intensifies, the island remains untouched, but analysts warn President Trump may contemplate...
Oil Spikes: How High Is the Price of War?
Oil prices have surged sharply as the Middle East conflict intensifies, highlighted by Iran’s appointment of a new supreme leader. The spike has prompted an emergency G7 finance ministers meeting to discuss coordinated responses. In the UK, Prime Minister Sir...
Strategic Oil Bets May Outperform in Current Geopolitical Crisis: Mark Matthews
Oil prices have surged past $100 per barrel, reigniting market volatility amid heightened geopolitical tensions. Julius Baer strategist Mark Matthews says markets are already pricing in the shock, with Asian equities showing mixed reactions and India’s exposure mitigated by improved oil...
Africa Boasts the World’s Four Fastest‑growing Container Lanes
Container Trade Statistics shows Africa dominates the four fastest‑growing container lanes worldwide, driven by strong import and export growth across all regions. MSC’s strategic redeployment of its largest vessels from Asia‑Europe to the burgeoning Asia‑West Africa route lifted average ship...
French Govt Says Releasing Strategic Oil Reserves Among Options
The French government announced that releasing its strategic oil reserves will be on the agenda of a virtual G‑7 finance ministers meeting on March 9. France, holding the rotating G‑7 presidency, will lead the discussion on how to mitigate the...
Iran Conflict Could Increase Challenges for Emerging Market Sovereigns: Fitch
Fitch Ratings warns that the ongoing Iran‑Israel conflict could create new credit risks for emerging‑market sovereigns. Disruptions to Gulf oil supplies may push energy import costs higher, strengthening the US dollar and tightening debt markets, especially for speculative‑grade issuers. Countries...
German Industrial Production Unexpectedly Drops, Orders Fall
German industrial output contracted 0.5% in January, following a revised 1% decline in December. Factory orders fell alongside production, contradicting Bloomberg economists’ forecast of a 1% increase. The unexpected downturn dampens expectations for a rapid manufacturing rebound in Europe’s largest...
Traders Boost ECB Rate Bets, Fully Price Two ECB Hikes
Traders have sharply increased bets that the European Central Bank will deliver two full 25‑basis‑point rate hikes before year‑end, up from a single hike priced on Friday. The shift follows a recent spike in energy prices that has reignited fears...
German Industrial Production Still Struggles to Gain Positive Momentum
German industrial production slipped 0.5% month‑on‑month in January, leaving output 1.2% lower than a year ago, with the metal and pharmaceuticals sectors bearing the brunt. New industrial orders collapsed by more than 10% MoM, reflecting a reversal of the bulk‑order...
India's Finished Steel Exports Jump 36.6% in April-February
India's finished steel exports rose 36.6% year‑on‑year to 6.02 million metric tonnes in the April‑February period, while imports fell 37.4% to 5.6 million tonnes. Crude‑steel production increased 11.2% to 153.61 million tonnes, outpacing domestic consumption, which grew 7.2% to 147.7 million tonnes. The surplus...
US Gold Revaluation Could Wipe Out 70% of Budget Deficit Amid West Asia Conflict
A new SBI Research report suggests that revaluing the United States’ gold reserves at current market prices could eliminate roughly 70% of the federal budget deficit. The reserves are still recorded at 1973 valuation levels, creating a massive accounting gap....
Germany January Industrial Orders -11.1% vs -4.5% M/M Expected
German industrial orders plunged 11.1% in January, far worse than the -4.5% forecast, highlighting a sharp contraction in manufacturing activity. When large orders are stripped out, the overall decline eases to a modest 0.4% month‑on‑month, and a three‑month view shows...
Australia’s Iron Ore Machine Faces a Structural Test
Australia’s iron‑ore sector produced 967.8 million tonnes in 2025, a 1.4% YoY rise, maintaining a 36.8% share of global output. Prices softened to an average $100.2 per dry metric tonne, down 8.4% as Chinese steel demand cooled and supply grew. While...
Austria: Persistent Spending Pressures Strain Fiscal Outlook
Austria’s AAA‑rated sovereign debt remains under pressure as fiscal deficits have widened to around 4 % of GDP, driven by ageing‑related expenditures, lingering inflation effects and higher defence outlays. A sizeable consolidation package has been introduced, yet it is unlikely to...
Traders Now See Chance BOE Will Hike Rates This Year
Traders have lifted the probability of a Bank of England rate hike this year to roughly 50%, up from near‑zero earlier in the month. The shift follows persistent inflation readings and tighter labour market data that suggest price pressures remain...
Food Prices in Ireland at Risk of Rising ‘Dramatically’ Due to War in Gulf, Minister Warns
Irish Minister of State Thomas Byrne warned that the war in the Gulf could cause food prices to rise dramatically, adding to already higher energy costs. He indicated the government will assess support measures within the next week, focusing on...
Current Geopolitical Threats Outpace Ukraine’s Economic Impact
There are perceived geopolitical risks and then REAL ones. Hormuz is Arrakis as far as we are all concerned. Ukraine war in 2022 was never as big of a risk to the global economy as what is now going on....
IEA Warns Surplus Could Turn Deficit Amid Middle East Turmoil
Latest from the IEA: - "Speaking with governments" and "closely monitoring" events in the Middle East. - Says global oil market has been "in significant surplus" since the start of 2025. However, "prolonged disruptions could flip the market into a deficit". - IEA...
Saudis Offer Crude on Spot Market as War Disrupts Supplies
Saudi Aramco has launched a rare series of spot tenders offering roughly 4.6 million barrels of crude, covering Arab Extra Light, Arab Heavy and Arab Light grades. The move comes as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz forces shipments...
Saudi Cuts Oil Output; Shipping Bottleneck, Not Supply
*SAUDI ARABIA STARTS OIL OUTPUT CUTS AS STORAGE FILLS UP We do not have a lack of supply of oil. We have a lack of supply of shipping
G7 Reserve Coordination Eases Market Shock, Dollar Firm
Reports G7 will discuss coordinated release of strategic reserves is helping to stem the worst of the markets' reaction to the weekend developments. Still, USD is mostly firmer, rates higher, and equities lower. See https://t.co/4OVnPnHNHB https://t.co/PN5lizMKsV
Iran War Adds 5% Inflation Risk to BoE
Bank of England hit by 5% inflation risk from the war in Iran https://t.co/MPiOtzZc9t via @tomelleryrees https://t.co/PH66hDSVno
Central Banks Miss Inflation Targets Five Years, War Delays Cuts
Central banks have overshot their inflation targets for FIVE YEARS. This war threatens to make that six. If you think they are just gonna cut rates anyway, I dunno what to tell you. Minimum - rate cuts are postponed.
Oil Spikes Signal Cycle End: Income Squeeze, Fed Reaction?
an old debate. Oil-price spikes have a nasty habit of marking the end of the cycle. But is that because of the income-squeeze, or the Fed's response? Or both? https://t.co/IE8tGIRy68
Qatar Delays LNG Expansion to 2027 After Drone Attack
Qatar is pushing back the start of its new LNG expansion project to 2027 🇶🇦⚠️ The move comes after the Ras Laffan facility was hit with an Iranian drone attack This threatens to further curb global gas supply and push back an...
ECB Must Lean on Fiscal Support in Crises
Another really important part of the ECB reaction function; fiscal support. I mean they can’t afford it … but that’s what emergencies are for.
IEA Emergency Oil Releases Have Surged, 2022 Tops History
History of IEA collective oil emergecy stockpiles releases (and size; note the size was volume offered): 1991: First Gulf War (~75 million) 2005: Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (~60 million) 2011: Libya civil war (~60 million) 2022: Russia-Ukraine (~180 million in two tranches)
Energy Prices Fuel Inflation; Efficiency and Renewables Needed
Rising energy prices are pushing up inflation, especially in economies dependent on imported fossil fuels. The durable solution is structural: improve efficiency, accelerate electrification and scale up renewables. Energy policy is economic policy. https://t.co/hmcAVJFLOT
Markets Overreact: Pricing Unlikely Rate Hikes Across Europe
Markets pricing in rate hikes from the ECB, the BoE... and the SNB. You gotta be kidding me.
Iranian Envoy Urges US, Israel to Leave Hormuz
U.S., Israel Should Withdraw From Strait of Hormuz Area, Says Iranian Envoy—Iran’s ambassador to China denounced the U.S. and Israel as sources of insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz and called on the two governments to withdraw from the area. @ByChunHan...
Bangladesh Shuts Universities to Curb Energy Demand Amid Crisis
Demand destruction as we speak, starting with Bangladesh. Thailand and China curbed exports of diesel and gas. Vietnam will do so next.
G7 Ministers Call Emergency Meeting, Consider Oil Reserve Release
G7 finance ministers to hold emergency conference call at 12.30pm London time to discuss the impact of the US- -Iran war, Paris said in a statement. According to the Financial Times, several G7 nations favour a release of their Strategic Petroleum...