Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
World Hit by Worst Oil Shock Since the 1970s
Oil prices surged dramatically on Monday, with Brent crude jumping 27% to $117.58 per barrel and U.S. crude climbing 28% to $116.51, marking the steepest daily gain since at least 1988. The spike follows heightened tensions in the Middle East, including Iran’s leadership change and ongoing hostilities that have stalled tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Asian equity markets plunged, led by a 7% drop in Japan’s Nikkei, while investors fled to the U.S. dollar amid fears of rising inflation and tighter monetary policy. Analysts warn the shock could persist for weeks or months, testing Washington’s response and global energy security.
Transformative Central Banker: Bank of Korea Governor Chang Yong Rhee
Bank of Korea Governor Chang Yong Rhee, appointed in April 2022, argues that central banks must broaden their remit beyond pure monetary policy. He has transformed the BoK into a more public‑facing institution, adding video studios, visualizations, staff media training...
Open Forum, Week of March 9
Rare earth shortages, especially yttrium and scandium, are tightening for U.S. aerospace and semiconductor manufacturers as Chinese export controls drive prices up to 69 times higher. China still dominates the global rare‑earth value chain, controlling roughly 70% of mining, over...
Rising Mortgage Interest Rates Cause Selloff in Apartment Market
Rising mortgage rates in Vietnam have surged to 13‑15 % and even 15‑16 % for floating loans, doubling many borrowers' monthly payments and prompting a wave of forced apartment sales. Sellers are slashing prices by 10‑15 % as buyer inquiries fell 20‑28 % month‑on‑month,...
SARB MPC Schedules Five Additional 2026 Meetings
𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗗𝗲𝗰𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 🇿🇦 The SARB’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet 𝐅𝐈𝐕𝐄 more times in 2026. Bookmark these dates 🔻 🇿🇦2̶9̶t̶h̶ ̶J̶a̶n̶u̶a̶r̶y̶ ( Unchanged ) ✅ 🇿🇦26th March 🇿🇦28th May 🇿🇦23rd July 🇿🇦23rd September 🇿🇦19th November
Vietnam Plans Oil Tax Cut on Escalating US–Iran War
Vietnam's finance ministry announced a proposal to cut the most‑favoured‑nation (MFN) import tariff on selected petroleum products to 0 % effective until 30 April 2026. The move aims to broaden the supplier base and secure crude volumes as the US‑Iran war has disrupted...
SARB Rules Out Rate Cuts, Hikes Possible Amid Tensions
South Africa is an oil-importing economy. The South African Reserve Bank is indirectly telling you that interest rate cuts are now off the table, and that if the tension in the Middle East continues, then interest rate hikes can’t be...
Strait of Hormuz Shutdown Sparks Worst Energy Crisis Since 1970s
Closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered the worst global energy crisis since the 1970s Who’s to blame for this?
Market View: How High Can Oil Go? Winners and Possible Losers Amongst Defense Stocks and SG Agri Counters
The episode examines how the recent escalation of the Iran‑Israel‑U.S. conflict is pushing oil above $100 per barrel, creating inflationary pressure and market volatility across Asia and the U.S. It highlights the mixed impact on Singapore‑listed agricultural stocks, where upstream...
LEI for South Korea Increased in January
South Korea’s Leading Economic Index rose 0.9 % in January to 114.8, driven by a stock‑price rally and stronger private construction orders. The Coincident Economic Index slipped 0.1 % to 109.4, indicating current activity is barely expanding. Over the past six months...
Price Controls Arrive: South Korea, Taiwan Impose Fuel Price Cap
South Korean President Lee Jae‑Myung announced the first fuel‑price cap in three decades as Brent crude breached $100 a barrel amid the Middle East conflict. Taiwan’s government simultaneously introduced a weekly cap limiting gasoline price hikes to roughly 5%, far...
Oil Prices Soar Past $110 While Dow Futures Sink 1,000 Points as Iran War Spirals Into Worst-Case Fears and U.S....
Oil futures surged past $113 a barrel and Brent topped $114 as the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran escalated, pushing the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed. The sharp rally in crude sent gasoline price forecasts above $4 per gallon, while Dow...
UK Has Just TWO DAYS' Worth of Natural Gas Stored - Sparking Fears of a Supply Shortage as Iran Shuts...
The United Kingdom’s gas storage has plunged to roughly two days of supply, with reserves falling from 18,000 GWh last year to about 6,700 GWh today. A similar volume of liquefied natural gas (LNG) sits in storage, but the overall buffer is...
Geopolitical Risk Is Crashing Equities
The article warns that rising geopolitical risk, highlighted by President Trump’s actions and a surge in crude oil prices, is driving equities lower. Higher oil prices are pushing the VIX up and causing a bear‑steepening of the yield curve, signaling...
Stocks Post Largest Dip in History
Vietnam’s benchmark VN‑Index closed 115 points lower on March 9, marking the steepest one‑day decline in its history. The plunge, driven by margin calls and panic selling, saw all 30 VN‑30 constituents fall, with 24 hitting floor prices. Foreign investors exited...
The Macro-Antifragility Framework: Navigating Southeast Asia’s Risk Landscape in 2026
In 2026 Southeast Asian founders confront a macro‑antifragility dilemma, balancing rapid scaling, unit‑economic profitability, and supply‑chain stability amid rising techno‑nationalism. High‑interest‑rate environments in the West have tightened investor expectations, while ASEAN’s robust GDP growth is tempered by sovereign AI regulations...
Oil Prices Soar as Iran Conflict Threatens Middle East Supply
Oil markets spiked dramatically as Brent crude briefly touched $119.50 per barrel, driven by heightened geopolitical risk from the Iran‑related conflict in the Middle East. Prices later eased to $107.20 for Brent and $103.18 for WTI after reports that G7...
Beijing's Choice: Strategic Counter or Patient Wait
The only question that matters in the next few weeks is whether Beijing concludes that the Iran escalation cutting off 40% of Chinese oil imports was deliberate and therefore demands a strategic response, or concludes that it was reckless and...
Emerging-Market Stocks Eye Correction, Currencies Erase YTD Gain
Emerging‑market equities suffered a sharp sell‑off on March 9, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index sliding 3.4% and edging toward a technical correction defined by a 10% pullback from recent highs. Two‑thirds of the index’s constituents posted losses, pushing the benchmark...
Asia Faces Deep Shock as Energy Prices Surge
We discussed on the impact of the crisis on Asia and it is a big negative shock for the region as we are very oil and gas dependent & we are importers of that from the Middle East. Price higher =...
Why China’s Critical Mineral Dominance Is Still Disrupting US Supply Chains
American companies continue to wrestle with critical mineral shortages even after China temporarily lifted its export ban on gallium, germanium and antimony. China still controls the bulk of heavy rare earths and other essential raw materials, creating bottlenecks for U.S....
To Penalize Iran, Azerbaijan Could Interdict Its Caspian Sea Trade
Iran’s president pledged to cease attacks unless provoked, after the IRGC launched an Arash‑2 drone strike on Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan airport that injured civilians. Azerbaijan responded by sealing its land border with Iran and hinted it could extend restrictions to Iranian...
Strait of Hormuz: Global Economy’s Vital Artery at Risk
If you want to understand global oil trade think of this as the world's circulatory system. Pinching the Strait of Hormuz is like closing a major artery. It will cause damage the longer it is closed and if not careful, you either...
How Exposed Is the Australian Sheepmeat Trade to the Conflict in Iran?
Australian sheepmeat exports to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) represent about $4.3 billion, or 23 % of total export value. Tasmania is the most exposed state, sending roughly 70 % of its sheepmeat to the region, while Victoria and Western Australia...
2026-03-09: Iran Conflict: Regional Attacks, Economic Impact, and Oil Market Turmoil
The Iran conflict has escalated from direct military exchanges to sustained attacks on critical infrastructure, including oil storage facilities, airports and desalination plants across Iran and neighboring Gulf states. These strikes, combined with ongoing constraints on commercial traffic through the...
Don't Chase Brent Spike; Hormuz Closure Unlikely to Worsen
Brent is $106 and markets are in full panic mode. They were slow to price the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but at this point the Strait isn't going to get any more closed. If anything, it'll...
Seems Plausible: Recession in 2026
Polymarket’s recession contract defines a U.S. recession as an NBER declaration for any quarter in 2025 or 2026, issued before the BEA releases its Q4 2026 advance estimate. Because the NBER typically confirms recessions with a lag, the contract’s definition lowers...
Historic Oil Supply Loss Doubles Suez Crisis, No Spare Capacity
Compared to the last maximum disruption during the 1956-1957 Suez Crisis (as a percentage of total liquids demand), this represents the largest oil supply loss in history, by a factor of two. Worse, unlike in past crises, there's zero spare capacity...
EU Urged to Leverage Market for Concessions From Fragile China
1/6 SCMP: "The European Union has been urged by the EU’s official think tank to weaponise its giant market to draw concessions from China, whose economic fragility is making it increasingly reliant on rich export markets." https://t.co/haMEakKlUZ via @scmpnews
What Regional Data Tell Us About the Euro Area Phillips Curve
A new ECB research bulletin exploits regional data from 168 NUTS‑2 areas across 11 euro‑area countries (1999‑2023) to re‑estimate the Phillips curve. Controlling for region and time fixed effects yields a slope of –0.19, far steeper than the –0.01 found...
March 9, 2009: Market Bottom Marks 17-Year Recovery
Today is March 9th. Do you remember March 9th, 2009. That day the equity markets bottomed out after the Global Financial Crisis. Happy Anniversary.
China's CPI Surges, Deflationary Trend Reverses
1/6 China's deflationary environment continues to improve, with high-than-expected numbers in February. CPI inflation was 1.3% year on year and 1.0% month on month. Month-on-month inflation has been positive since December and mostly positive since July. https://t.co/gpaBJ53yli
Iran War Worsens BOJ’s Stagflation Dilemma, Postpones Rate Hike
The ongoing Iran war is intensifying the Bank of Japan’s stagflation dilemma, forcing a choice between raising rates or maintaining ultra‑low policy for longer. Core inflation excluding food and energy fell further below the BOJ’s 2% target in January, while...
China Refuses U.S.-style Role in Iran Partnership
.@ZichenWanghere: “China is not willing to play the same role for Iran that the United States has long assumed for its own partners. But that does not mean that China is feckless…Too many observers still measure every rising power against...
China Acknowledges Deflation Risk, Vows Positive Cost Growth
“Encouragingly, China now seems very alert to the threat of deflation…Li Qiang said the government will steer the cost of living ‘back into positive territory.’ That’s tougher language than last year…a welcome recognition that Beijing has a problem.” https://t.co/V270GGGAJB
Trump's Aggressive Foreign Policy Fuels Higher Oil Prices
Last month I wrote a column about whether Trump could take credit for low oil prices. Trump loves to talk about how much he wants/pushes for low prices, but I argued his aggressive foreign policy was a massive bullish driver of...
Risk‑off Defies Norms as Yields Stay Flat‑up
Puzzling. In risk-off market yields go down, but they're flat to up, globally (so not "sell-America"). Central banks seen as less likely to ease. True, until you get non-linearities and recessions (e.g. summer of 2008, oil up sharply and ECB...
China's CPI Jumps 1.3% in February, Outpacing Forecasts
China Consumer Inflation Beats Expectations on Holiday Boost—The consumer-price index rose 1.3% from a year earlier in February https://t.co/U4ziLySrnu https://t.co/U4ziLySrnu
Oil Surges Past $100, Inflation Data Gains Weight
Middle East tensions spike oil past $100 and shake inflation forecasts. This week's CPI and PCE data could pack extra punch as rate cut hopes fade. 🟢 Open https://t.co/dcFgI6Pdro
Brent Crude Jumps 25% Amid Middle East Conflict
*BRENT CRUDE OIL EXTENDS SURGE TO 25% ON MIDEAST WAR DISRUPTION In addition to rallying 25% today (Sunday night), May Brent Crude oil futures are up 56% since last Wednesday's low (March 4th). https://t.co/Afycm5leiS
Oil Surges, Gold Slides as Dollar Rallies
Oil spiking to $107 while gold falls. The dollar is strengthening as global markets panic. Both moves happening at once. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/Og6roiaoNd
Oil Price Spikes $40 in a Week; Panic Insufficient
People aren’t freaking out enough The situation is not under control Price of oil up 40 bucks in a week
Navigating Financial Stress in a War‑Stricken Economy
Beyond market dynamics. Financial stress and the way forward in a war stricken economy. https://t.co/LIopIEO6s7 https://t.co/BjcTLG016G
Taiwan Caps Weekly Oil Hikes, Likely Freezes Power Rates
Taiwan's government will set a weekly cap on oil price increases to help contain domestic inflation, local media reports 🇹🇼🛢️ Fuel prices to be adjusted overall by ~5% this week The likelihood of freezing electricity tariffs in April is high https://t.co/tTWfUV2wiI https://t.co/LgRs7ClOH7
Trump Admin Anticipates Prolonged Oil Disruptions Amid Russia‑Iran Ties
A sophisticated man like Bessent “unsanctioning” Russian oil as Russia is… 1. Openly supporting Iran 2. Reportedly helping Iran target US assets 3. Still fighting Ukraine …strongly suggests the Trump Admin knows these oil disruptions are going to be longer than expected.
Gulf War III Cuts Global Oil Supply by 20%
Yeeps: @Bob_McNally of @RapidanEnergy "Gulf War III has disrupted ~20% of global oil supply for nine days and counting – more than double the previous record set during the Suez Crisis of 1956-57, which disrupted just under 10%."
Hormuz Closure Triggers Sulfur Shortage, Sparks Demand Destruction
Negative supply shock will lead to price increases & the only way to correct that if supply doesn’t rise is, well, demand destruction. We are headed towards demand destruction if the conflict doesn’t end by Day 14. Today is Day 10....
Investors Shocked by Liberation Day, Split on Hormuz Risks
Liberation Day: Investors stunned, didn’t think he’d do it after Trump 1.0, tariffs universally hated among investors Strait of Hormuz situation: Investors more afraid of a TACO, Wall Street opinions about the Iran operation not as universally negative as Liberation Day
Low Reserves Raise Borrowing Costs and Default Risk
Isn't it likely that countries in fiscal distress find it hard to borrow, have to pay high default premia, and run down their reserves like everything else?
War Fuels Fertilizer Crisis, Threatens Asian Economies
The war’s not stopping because of some pain at the American pump. The implications for global fertilizer markets (ammonia, sulphur) are probably going to be as big of a deal as the energy disruptions in several months. Asian economies are in...