Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
International Business Briefs | Saudi Arabia Joins Neighbours in Cutting Oil Output
Saudi Aramco has begun curbing output at two fields as the Strait of Hormuz bottleneck from the US‑Israeli war with Iran rattles global oil supplies. Meanwhile, Roche’s breast‑cancer drug giredestrant failed a late‑stage trial, sending its shares down more than 5%, and Nigel Farage secured a 6% stake in Bitcoin‑focused Stack BTC. Glencore is weighing an ASX listing to broaden its investor base, while South Korea discusses investing in a U.S. nuclear project, and soaring oil prices are pressuring airline profitability.
War's Oil Surge Mirrors $50 Carbon Tax Estimate
fun fact: at $90/barrel, the impact of the war is equivalent to a ~$50/ton carbon tax, right where the biden administration estimated the social cost of carbon
Rising Oil Prices Set to Push US CPI Above 3%
Lower energy prices were keeping US inflation rates from rising. But that tailwind will turn into a headwind in March with prices spiking on a YoY basis. We could easily see CPI rise above 3% if Crude Oil stays above...
Europe Shouldn’t Fear Trade War with China, EU Agency Says
The EU Institute for Security Studies recommends an “escalate to de‑escalate” approach toward China, urging faster use of the Anti‑Coercion Instrument (ACI), the bloc’s most powerful trade‑defence tool. The report notes China’s growing trade surplus of €359.3 billion and its leverage...
Any Attack on Innocent Seafarers Unacceptable: IMO Secretary-General
International Maritime Organization Secretary‑General Arsenio Domínguez condemned a series of attacks on merchant vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, noting at least seven seafarer deaths and multiple injuries. He highlighted the missile strike on the tug Mussafah 2, which killed four...
A Decade to Forget for Australian Households
Australian Bureau of Statistics data shows real per‑capita household disposable income remained 3.9% below its COVID‑19 peak in 2025, with annual growth averaging just 0.6% this decade. This represents the slowest decade‑average increase since the late 1950s. The stagnant income...
Artificial Intelligence and Aggregate Productivity
Recent speeches by Federal Reserve officials highlight artificial intelligence as a key driver of future productivity growth. They differentiate labor productivity—real GDP per hour worked—from total factor productivity (TFP), both illustrated in a FRED series covering 1988‑2024. Economists contend AI...
Oil Prices Soar to $120 a Barrel as Iran Names New Supreme Leader
Oil prices surged to near $120 a barrel as Iran’s conflict intensified following the appointment of a new supreme leader, then retreated to about $106 for Brent and $103 for WTI. The fighting threatens production and shipping in the Persian...
Closed Hormuz Strait Shifts Oil Risk to Reopening
The Strait of Hormuz is closed. It's not going to get more closed than it already is. All the risk is now on the other side, i.e. when and to what extent it opens. You can bet Trump is very...
Air Cargo Turns to Trucks as Middle East Disruption Sends Rates Soaring
Air cargo networks across the Gulf are crippled by flight cancellations and airspace closures, prompting forwarders to reroute freight by truck, especially through Saudi Arabia. Freight rates have surged, with southern‑Asia to North America lanes up 36% and Asia‑Europe lanes...
Buy Gold Above $5200 as Dollar Strength Persists
Macro: USD & yields up; oil spike lifts risk‑off. Key: $5000 sup, $5150–$5200 res. Risks: Middle East safe‑haven vs dollar strength. Trade: Buy on decisive close >$5200. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Stagnant Jobs and Oil Spike Signal Recession, Defense Favored
Recent employment trends combined with the oil price spike suggest recession risk is rising, and this was not on the market's bingo card this year... Though February job losses were skewed by one-time effects, the weakness is nonetheless part of...
Taiwan's February Exports Rise for 28th Straight Month, Hit New High
Taiwan’s February exports surged 20.6% year‑on‑year to US$49.8 billion, marking the 28th consecutive month of growth and pushing the trade surplus to US$12.77 billion. The first two months of 2026 recorded US$115.57 billion in exports, up 44.5% – the strongest bi‑annual performance in...
Fertilizer Prices Are Skyrocketing, Are Food Prices Next?
Fertilizer prices are soaring as the United States, Israel and Iran become entangled in a new geopolitical conflict, disrupting key Middle‑East supply chains. The spike mirrors the 2022 commodity shock triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which sent grain, fertilizer...
Iran Conflict Could Halt Grain Surplus Recovery
Commodity Price Pumps and Iran vs. Russia's Ukraine Invasion - The US exports about 25% of its grain production, and prices have been declining on the back of the 2022 spikes, which incentivized more supply -- notably from Brazil. Russia's...
Hormuz Closure Threatens India's Energy Supply
A 33 km waterway which is 3000 km away from you can decide how much you must pay for petrol, cylinder etc. A 33 km waterway between Iran–Oman called the Strait of Hormuz. 20% of global crude oil passes through this route,...
House Leadership Files Fuel Excise Tax Suspension Bill; Public Hearing Set Tuesday
House leaders filed HB 8292, allowing the Philippine President to suspend or reduce fuel excise taxes during national or global emergencies, triggered by soaring oil prices linked to Middle East tensions. The bill sets a concrete threshold—Dubai crude at $80 per...
Taiwan's Economic Gauge Stays 'Red' For 2nd Straight Month in January
Taiwan’s National Development Council reported its composite economic gauge at 39 in January, keeping the index in the red zone for a second straight month and signaling an overheating economy. The money‑supply sub‑index (M1B) improved to a green light, while...
Finding the Floor
The Middle East conflict triggered the biggest one‑week jump in oil prices on record, pushing WTI crude above $92 a barrel. At the same time, U.S. economic data revealed the worst monthly job loss since the pandemic, with 92,000 positions...
Markets Price Rate Hikes as Central Banks Stay Hawkish
On central banks: Judging from the shift in market probabilities of interest rate actions, the markets now believe that single-mandate central banks (that is, price stability), such as the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, are in no mood...
The Iran Oil Shock Could Fuel This Contrarian Bet
Rising tensions with Iran are driving Brent crude above $100 a barrel, sparking fears of a prolonged oil shock. The iShares MSCI Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA), heavily weighted toward oil and financials, has slipped to near five‑year lows despite the...
Gavin Newsom Take A Jibe At Trump As Crude Oil Soar Past $100 For First Time In 4 Years: 'We...
Crude oil breached $100 per barrel on March 8, its first four‑year high, driven by tighter inventories, OPEC+ output cuts, and Middle East tensions. The price surge coincided with a political jab from California Governor Gavin Newsom, who mocked former...
Why Gas Prices Rise Today for Oil Bought Weeks Ago
Philippine fuel retailers set pump prices based on the cost of the next shipment rather than the price they paid weeks ago, using a replacement‑cost accounting model tied to the Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS) benchmark. A mandatory 15‑ to...
Gulf's Power Tied to U.S. Defense, Not Independence
The Gulf countries are just as strong as the USA because it is the US that agreed to DEFEND them…. So, all of them combined just fall under the US…. Iran is already fighting their protector, so it can literally...
Iran Conflict May Cement China’s Energy Dominance
How the Iran War Could Consolidate China’s Energy Dominance - Amid global oil and gas disruptions, China stands prepared for the electrostate era. https://t.co/XjVHuN91u9
Why China Won’t Hit Back over Indonesia’s US Trade Deal
Indonesia and the United States signed the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) on Feb. 19, imposing a 19% tariff ceiling and a clause to mirror U.S. restrictions on third parties, primarily aimed at curbing Chinese trans‑shipments. Beijing responded with its usual...
Japan Lifts YCC; Iran Targets UST Market Vulnerability
10y UST yield (blue, RS1) USDJPY * oil (red, LS) USDCNY * oil (green, RS2) Since Japan lifted YCC on 10y JGBs 👇 "Iran doesn't have to beat the US military; it just has to beat the UST market" -Title of 3/3/26...
Trump’s Rare‑Earth Bank Leaves China Dependence Unchanged
The Bank Trump Is Relying On for Rare-Earth Minerals Impact so far on dependence on China? Zero.... https://t.co/Ux4lLRcEqv via @NYTimes
West Asia Tensions Pose Twin Challenges for Indian Paper Industry
West Asian geopolitical tensions are creating a dual challenge for India’s paper sector by driving up energy costs and threatening key export markets. In FY24‑25, the industry shipped $980 million of paper and paperboard, with roughly $290 million (30%) destined for West...
Energy Crunch at Hormuz Threatens Global Supply Chains
Chinese WSJ: Severe energy crisis with limited shipping thru the Strait of Hormuz. What kind of crisis will it bring to global logistics and supply chains? Fuel for transporting goods for manufacturing and retail. Businesses and consumers.
Iran War Doubles Oil Moves, Halves Dollar Impact
Compared to the 2022 Russia-Ukraine invasion, this Iran war has produced 2x the move in oil, but only 1/2 the move in DXY. This is exactly what I'm talking about playing out - the dollar is structurally challenged. https://t.co/H1VIqKNbr7
The Oil Shock Arrives
Oil futures surged nearly 20% on Monday, with Brent touching $111 and WTI $106, the highest levels since 2022. The spike follows the abrupt closure of the Strait of Hormuz, cutting roughly 20% of global oil and gas shipments. Asian...
Hormuz Reopening Could Trigger Sharp Dollar Decline
The Dollar (blue) and rate differentials (black) are massively diverging. When the Strait of Hormuz reopens - even if only a little bit - we'll see a very large drop in the Dollar. We're still very much in a regime...
Moj
Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, became the third leader in the history of the Islamic Republic. The Venn diagram of what is acceptable to Israel and the United States, and what Khamenei can credibly offer, has no overlap...
A Slew of Negative News Has Anxious Clients Calling Their Advisors. Here Is How They Are Responding
Recent market turbulence—VIX up more than 50%, oil above $100, and a drop in February jobs—has pushed the S&P 500 down over 2% in a week. Wealth managers are fielding anxious client calls, emphasizing that diversification across sectors and asset classes...
Tariffs Linked to 240k Job Losses in Manufacturing and Transport
"Tariffs may have affected manufacturing employment, which declined by 119,000 in 2025. Likewise, the trade sensitive transportation and warehousing sector declined by 123,800." https://t.co/ed9bs6nNSn
Oil Supply Deletion Drives Prices, Volatility, and Market Stress
$WTI above $100. $VIX above 33. Nikkei down 5.4%. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. Zero tankers transiting. This isn't a supply disruption. It's a supply deletion. And the SPR is at 40-year lows. https://t.co/WaTisWuS4y
Rolls-Royce Shares Slide as FTSE 100 Plunges Amid Iran War
Rolls‑Royce shares slumped up to five per cent at the open, later stabilising at a three‑per‑cent loss, as the Iran‑Israel conflict sparked broader market anxiety. The FTSE 100 fell about 1.5 per cent, driven by concerns over disrupted air routes over Azerbaijan...
Iran's 70% Output Cut Predicts Oil Price Decline
Iran's oil production is down 70%, according to reports. When the fifth largest oil producing country in the world (at 5 million barrels a day) drops like this, we now know what the underlying asset price will do. https://t.co/jRLuiAK0xM
Western Economies Can't Afford Stagflation Amid Rising Deficits
Western economies cannot afford stagflation, particularly with current deficits. Before the "war" started. The Calligulino administration is composed of dimwits incapable of grasping the consequences of their actions. https://t.co/dtGLn9cwTw
How Energy Crises Begin: Lessons From Iran
My debut in @TheFP - This Is How an Energy Crisis Starts - by Ellen R. Wald https://t.co/8Isvg3TkzQ @ACGlobalEnergy #oil #iran #oott
Iran Conflict Disrupts Fed’s Economic Forecast Again
The war in Iran is scrambling the economic outlook for the Federal Reserve — again. https://t.co/TGmVeLOISN
Prolonged Hikes Risk Pushing Economy Into Recession
put it this way, if this situation last long enough for central banks to hike, they'll end up hiking into a recession
Pre‑emptive Oil Purchases Could Offset Iran Bombing Price Spike
I don't think you have to Nostradamus to figure that bombing Iran might raise oil prices. And it seems pretty obvious that buying oil in advance of causing an oil price spike might just save Americans a lot of...
Oil Shock Risk‑off Still Incomplete, Metrics Lag
"Historical risk-off moves after an oil shock have generally required at least one of: Large and sustained oil price spike...Hawkish policy response...Broader macro damage:" Deutsche Bank. We're "closer than a week ago, but on several metrics we aren’t quite there...
Discussing How to Bring Oil Below $100
I’ll be coming up on @BloombergTV in a few to discuss zooming #oil prices with @lisaabramowicz1 & @FerroTV Can anything be done to bring oil under $100 in the foreseeable future? @ACGlobalEnergy #oott #Iran https://t.co/hJJBdEoPvU
Italy Risks Iran Setback to Escape EU Scrutiny
Italy risks Iran setback in a bid to exit EU scrutiny, Scope says https://t.co/fGVWOIJe8n via @CraigStirling https://t.co/7T2WI2wmif
Oil Surpasses $100 Amid Middle East Conflict, Markets Unsettled
Capital Markets Remain Unsettled with Oil Above $100: The Middle East war continues to dominate the investment environment. The dollar is firm. Equities are lower. Yields are higher. The disruption of trade through the Strait of Hormuz is forcing oil…...
U.S. Becomes Net Energy Exporter, Yet Oil‑Price Sensitive
One of my higher conviction views: the US is now a net energy exporter (LNG more than oil) but it is best understood as an oil importer that is uniquely sensitive to oil price swings. 1/
Trump’s Policies Keep Taxing Americans: Tariffs and War
One year ago the Trump-Tariffs put a tax on all Americans. This year it's the Trump-Iran War adding to that tax. (his observation 👇) https://t.co/nF3KxY5qpw