Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Asia’s Outlook Under Higher Oil Prices
Asia can currently absorb the recent oil‑price surge, but the region’s heavy reliance on imported energy makes it vulnerable if prices stay high. Japan and the Philippines source almost 90% of their oil from the Middle East, while China and India import roughly 40‑50%. A 10% price increase could shave 40‑60 basis points off current‑account balances and trigger currency depreciation in the Thai baht, Korean won, Philippine peso and Indian rupee. Subsidies in Indonesia, Thailand and India provide limited buffers, but the overall trade‑balance strain could pressure inflation and monetary policy.
Central Asia’s ‘Soft Confederation’ Has a Hard Limit
Central Asia’s five states (C5) have coalesced around a sovereignty‑first coordination model, dubbed a “soft confederation,” that emphasizes consensus and minimal delegation. Recent C5+ diplomatic rounds—an EU summit in Samarkand, a U.S. White House meeting, and Germany’s C5+1 foreign‑minister talks—have...
Indian Govt Assures Fuel Availability, Affordability Amid Iran-Israel Tensions
India’s Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas reviewed crude, LPG and petroleum product supplies as Iran‑Israel tensions heightened global energy volatility. Brent crude surged to roughly $82 a barrel, prompting concerns over the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint that carries about...
US Strike on Iran Could End Low‑oil Price Relief
Low oil prices for much of the past year have helped cool inflation & given Trump license to tout more affordable prices at the pump. But if there was one scenario most likely to upset that trend, it was a...
3 Stocks With the Most to Gain From Tariff Relief
The U.S. Supreme Court invalidated the IEEPA‑based tariffs, cutting the effective import duty to 9.1% and replacing them with temporary 10% Section 122 tariffs. The modest rate reduction muted market reaction but creates clear tailwinds for firms previously hit hard by...
Chinese Debates on a Fragmenting Global Order | Sinification: February 2026
The February Sinification digest captures a widening debate within China over how to navigate a fragmenting global order. Analysts propose a shift from free‑trade to “managed trade” frameworks, while others call for crystal‑clear economic red lines comparable to Taiwan policy....
Myers Predicts Strikes, Reveals Markets' Critical Blind Spot
The strikes happened. Charles Myers laid out exactly what was coming — and now he’s the person to tell you what markets are still getting wrong. Steven Ehrlich sat with him hours before it happened. His full breakdown of what...
ISM Miss Could Cool Yields, Boost Growth Stocks
March 2, 2026 Economic Events : 0945 – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb): Exp 51.2 | Prior 51.2 1000 – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb): Exp 51.7 | Prior 52.6 1000 – ISM Manufacturing Prices: Exp 60.6 | Prior 59.0 1130 – ATL Fed GDPNow (Q1):...
Geopolitical Shock Meet Macro Pressures
February proved the year’s second‑worst market month as AI‑related anxieties and rising private‑credit loan‑loss fears weighed on equities. The Producer Price Index jumped 0.5% month‑over‑month and 2.9% year‑to‑date, pushing expectations of near‑term Federal Reserve rate cuts lower. Over the weekend,...
Middle East Headlines Dominate Market over Weekly Data
🚨 TRADERS ALERT 🚨 📊 What to Watch This Week 🗓️ Mon: Iran war fallout + ISM Manufacturing 🗓️ Tue: Fed speakers 🗓️ Wed: ADP + ISM Services 🗓️ Thu: Jobless Claims 🗓️ Fri: NFP + Retail Sales + more Fed speak But make no mistake -...
RBA Reveals the Number of Australians Who’d Be Out of Work if It Just Focused on Lowering Inflation
The Reserve Bank of Australia disclosed that a more aggressive rate‑hiking path would have added roughly 200,000 unemployed workers and pushed mortgage repayments up by about $500 a month on a $600,000 loan. Chief economist Sarah Hunter’s internal modelling shows...
Africa Reckons with Oil Price Spike as Iran War Widens
The United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran, triggering a sharp rise in global oil prices. Brent crude surged 13% before settling 8.5% higher, marking its biggest daily jump in nearly three years. The conflict has halted...
Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief
Corn, soybeans and wheat opened the month with firm trade but moved to mixed pricing as the night session progressed. Market focus shifted to geopolitics after the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran, prompting risk‑led buying and sharp...
China Slashes Anti-Dumping Tariff on Canadian Canola Seed
Chinese authorities announced a dramatic cut to the anti‑dumping duty on Canadian canola seed, lowering it to 5.9% from the 75.8% rate imposed in August 2025. Including China’s standard 9% import levy, the effective tariff becomes 14.9%, a figure the...
How Iran’s Missile Barrage Struck at the Heart of Global Trade
Iran’s recent missile barrage over the Persian Gulf resulted in debris striking Jebel Ali, the world’s busiest container port, igniting a fire that forced a temporary shutdown. The incident halted more than 10% of global container throughput, disrupting supply chains that...
Textile Export to Be Hit because of West Asia Conflict
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz will force Indian garment exporters to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 20‑25 days to transit times. Higher freight costs and longer shipping windows threaten the tight seasonal calendars of...
Buy RFI: Yield Boost and Discount Recovery
RFI preferred: similar REIT CEFs face a lower-rates tailwind; RFI shows larger mean-reversion upside vs RQI. Risk: rate/timing, leverage. Trade: buy RFI for yield + discount recovery 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Brazil Strengthens Agricultural Partnership with the Philippines at WOFEX Drinks and Bakes 2026
Brazil deepened its agricultural partnership with the Philippines at WOFEX Drinks and Bakes 2026, showcasing five firms that offer value‑added beverages, superfoods, and coffee products. The Brazil Pavilion highlighted innovative, sustainability‑focused offerings such as Amazon‑sourced craft gin, açaí bowls, and...
A Brief History of Bank Notes in the United States and some Lessons for Stablecoins
Mark Carlson’s Federal Reserve note examines the era before the Fed when U.S. commercial banks issued their own paper money, backed by a mix of bank assets and government bonds. The piece highlights how those privately‑issued notes depended on a...
The New Critical Minerals Race – Why the US-China Rivalry Will Be Decided in the Global South
Critical minerals have become the centerpiece of the U.S.-China rivalry, but the contest is playing out in Africa, Southeast Asia and Latin America. While China dominates mid‑stream processing of rare earths and battery materials, Washington is building "friend‑shoring" partnerships to...
Book Review: India’s High-Tech Leap
Sunil Mani’s new book India’s High‑Tech Leap reviews the rise of six high‑tech sectors—pharmaceuticals, software services, COVID‑19 vaccines, wind turbines, solar photovoltaics and electric vehicles—under India’s Make‑in‑India and Atmanirbhar Bharat initiatives. He credits government intervention and public‑private collaboration for early successes but flags...
India's Cumulative Exports Rise to $720.76 Billion in Apr-Jan 2025-26, up 6.15%
India’s cumulative exports reached $720.76 billion in April‑January 2025‑26, a 6.15% increase over the same period last year. Services exports surged 10.57% to $354.13 billion, while merchandise categories such as electronics and pharmaceuticals posted broad‑based gains. Defence exports hit a record Rs 23,622 crore,...
Merz Is Wrong: Why Hard Work Won’t Beat China
German politician Merz blamed low productivity for China’s competitive edge, arguing Germans must work harder. The article counters that China’s advantage stems from systemic factors—an undervalued yuan, extensive subsidies and strategic industrial policy—that create a 40‑60% price gap despite higher...
Russia Analyst Flags Defense Industry Slowdown
Former deputy energy minister Vladimir Milov’s open‑source analysis shows Russia’s defense‑industrial output, which surged in 2023‑24, is now decelerating sharply. Production of weapons, electronics and combat vehicles fell to roughly half of prior-year levels by late 2025, with some categories...
South Africa’s Move to Greener Energy Is Creating New Jobs, but Benefits Aren’t Evenly Spread
South Africa’s green transition is boosting employment, with green jobs rising from 12.4% of the labour force in 2022 to 14.8% in 2024. Growth is concentrated in utilities, mining, construction and finance, driven by government procurement and sustainable‑finance policies. However,...
Middle East Tensions Likely Push Rand Lower, Fuel Costs Up
Prolonged tension in the Middle East. Rising oil prices, if sustained, and a weaker Rand. Add the increased fuel levies announced in the budget speech on top of macro concerns, and taking the governor’s conservative nature and the new 3% inflation...
Russian Arctic LNG Tankers Keep Red Sea Route Despite Middle East Turmoil
Russia’s Arctic LNG shadow fleet continues to transit the Red Sea corridor despite heightened Middle‑East tensions, using the shortcut to reach Asian markets. At least seven ice‑class and conventional carriers have been tracked moving through the Bab el‑Mandeb and Suez...
Buy SPX Dips Near 6800 Amid Oil‑driven Volatility
Elevated volatility as oil spikes and heavy Treasury settlements. S&P gamma at 6800; VIX resists ~20. Risk: higher oil, weaker productivity → yields up. Trade: buy SPX dips near 6800. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Hedge Funds Ramped up Oil Longs Ahead of Iran Attack
Hedge funds significantly increased long positions in crude oil as tensions between Iran and Israel escalated, anticipating a potential supply shock. Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows a roughly 15% rise in net long exposure, equivalent to about...
For Oil Prices, It’s The Fear Not The Barrels
The death of Iran’s supreme leader and subsequent missile exchanges have raised alarms about a possible Straits of Hormuz shutdown, which could cut 10‑20 million barrels per day from global supply. Analysts debate the price impact, with some warning that panic...
Oil Threat Spurs Metals Surge, Gold Hits $5,400
After Iran’s strike on a Saudi Aramco refinery, capital is rotating aggressively into metals. Gold has reclaimed $5,400, up 2.22%, adding roughly $1 trillion in market value in just 6 hours. Silver has surged to $96, up 4.32%, adding $250 billion in...
Iran Strikes Spotlight Chances for North Korea to Resume Nuclear Talks with Trump
U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, which killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have sharpened North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's perception of nuclear deterrence, experts say. The attacks could push Pyongyang to reconsider resuming nuclear talks with President Donald...
Market Outlook for the Week of 2nd-6th March
The week of March 2‑6 is packed with macro releases, including Eurozone, UK and US manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone CPI flash estimates, Australian Q4 GDP, and a full slate of US labor market data. Analysts expect the ISM manufacturing PMI to dip...
Iranian Drone Strike Shuts Major Saudi Refinery, Raising Oil Risk
Saudi Arabia has reportedly shut down Ras Tanura, one of the world’s largest oil refineries, following an Iranian drone strike. This is not just a regional headline. Ras Tanura is a critical node in global energy supply. Any prolonged disruption could...
Dividends Dip, Payouts Surge as KWSP Assets Swell
The 2025 Employees' Provident Fund (KWSP) dividends experienced a slight decline to 6.15% for both conventional and syariah accounts. CEO Ahmad Zulqarnain Onn attributed this reduction to: 1. stagnant growth within the local stock market and the 2. strengthening of the...
Pound Drops, FTSE 100 to Fall as Investors Look to Havens
The British pound slipped to its lowest level this year as heightened geopolitical tension pushed oil prices above $80 a barrel. The decline triggered a sell‑off in the FTSE 100, with analysts forecasting a roughly 1% drop for the day....
Renewables Cut Fossil Dependence; Petrol Becomes Luxury
The Iranian conflict highlights another reason why Net Xero is critical. Ramping up renewables reduces our dependency on global fossil fuel markets. Pretty simple really. Petrol will become a luxury purchase
Iranian Conflict Expands, Fuels Oil Surge and Market Volatility
🚨 IRAN WAR DAY 2 — MONDAY MARKET OPEN 🚨 Day 2 confirms the war is widening, not containing. ~48 Iranian officials confirmed dead including Khamenei. Iran is retaliating across the Gulf — hitting Dubai, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and targeting...
VGIT: U.S. Force Projection Could Undermine Debasement Trade
The United States’ military escalation against Iran has triggered a rapid flight‑to‑quality, pushing U.S. Treasury prices up and yields down while simultaneously stoking inflation concerns via higher oil prices. This dual dynamic creates a paradox for intermediate‑term bond investors, as...
IG Japan Warns Traders of Market Fluctuations Due to Middle East Situation Deterioration
IG Japan has issued a market‑volatility warning as Middle East tensions intensify, causing rapid price swings across multiple asset classes. The broker expects continued fluctuations and may adjust margin requirements at short notice. Traders are advised to keep sufficient capital...
Foreign Investors Trigger Record South Korean Stock Selloff
🚨Has the South Korean market gone TOO FAR? Foreign investors dumped a record 6.8 trillion won ($4.7 billion) of South Korean stocks on Friday, the largest single-day selloff EVER.👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-stocks-dropped-amid-rising-ai-and-geopolitical-uncertainty-weekly-market-recap-trading-week-09-20
Post‑COVID Dreams of Roaring Twenties Meet 1970s Reality
Post-COVID, there was hope for an another roaring 20s. It’s been more like the 1970s.
Chinese Domestic Sulphur Prices Surge on Iran Crisis
Chinese domestic sulphur prices jumped to 4,250 yuan per tonne, about $531, marking a roughly 5% increase from late February levels. The rise follows heightened US‑Iran tensions, prompting sellers to lift offers to 4,300 yuan/t in both paper and spot markets. While...
March Cold Snap Won’t Significantly Raise Consumer Gas Prices
A cold spell in Europe in March would definitely put the cat among the pigeons, but worth remembering that it takes a while for gas prices to feed through to consumer prices, so "flash in the pan" shift won't matter,...
Strait of Hormuz Carries Significant LNG Alongside Oil
Very interesting > The Strait of Hormuz is not just oil - but also LNG. https://t.co/jlv7Hrp9LJ
Dollar Rally Hits All EM; Oil Ties Soon Diverge
The Dollar is rallying on risk-off price action, including against EM (black). Markets are not yet differentiating between oil exporters and oil importers, so everyone's getting hit in EM, but that'll soon give way to markets discerning between these two. https://t.co/AOkYSZgAuL...
War‑time Trade Lifts Commodities, S&P Teeters at 6785
Mostly red arrows around the world as weekend Middle East events have the “war time trade” in motion, with silver/gold/oil higher and $SPX futures -70. Key is whether $SPX holds 6780–6790 to keep the upper range intact, or if it...
War Fuels USD Rally, While Equities and Treasuries Falter
$USD rallied on the war. Equities slid. Gold and oil jump. US Treasuries are not the safe haven. With decapitation strike on Iran, which the US said it had destroyed its nuclear capability last June, the end...
Ukraine Urges UAE to Curb Russian Revenue, Shares Drone Tech
Ukraine could well ask that the UAE show some reciprocal good will by reducing its systemic enablement of Russian revenue generation.
China’s Two Sessions Reveal Economic Outlook Amid High Stakes
China’s ‘Two Sessions’ to Shed Light on What Lies Ahead for Economy—Beijing’s target-setting takes place against a high-stakes backdrop https://t.co/sxAHsLFpcV https://t.co/sxAHsLFpcV