Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Diamond Slump Pushes Botswana to Broaden Mining Base
A deep slump in diamond prices is forcing Botswana, the world’s top diamond producer by value, to broaden its mining portfolio. The government announced plans to explore copper, cobalt and other critical minerals, noting that only about 30% of its territory has been surveyed. A new state‑owned exploration company will improve geological data to attract investors and reduce reliance on diamonds, which generate roughly one‑third of national revenue. Minister Bogolo Joy Kenewendo highlighted early talks with the United States on joint mining projects.
Next US-China Trade Talks Tipped in Advance of Trump-Xi Summit as Fragile Truce Holds
High‑level US‑China trade talks are being staged ahead of President Donald Trump’s April summit with Xi Jinping, as Treasury officials led by Scott Bessent met Vice‑Premier He Lifeng in Beijing. The delegations aim to keep the fragile tariff truce intact...
Indonesia Turns to Digital Finance to Reach Unbanked Population
Indonesia, home to one of the world’s largest unbanked populations, is accelerating digital finance to boost inclusion. The Financial Services Authority outlined three policy priorities—sector resilience, a contributive ecosystem, and sustainable finance—to guide the effort. PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI)...
The Market Brief
The episode reviews the S&P 500’s pause just short of record highs as investors await upcoming U.S. economic data, starting with retail sales. It highlights that technology stocks led the recent rally, buoyed by AI news from OpenAI, and that...
Indonesia Eyes China Partnerships to Build Industry and Tech ‘Better than the EU Standard’
Indonesia’s sovereign wealth fund Danantara is pursuing Chinese partnerships to accelerate waste‑to‑energy, smart‑grid and data‑centre projects, aiming to exceed European Union environmental standards. The fund highlighted the role of patient capital at the China Conference and the World Economic Forum,...
Mining Corridors as Catalysts: Building on the Lobito Model
In December 2025 the United States and the Democratic Republic of Congo signed a strategic partnership that gives Washington preferential access to Congolese mineral deposits. The article argues that the next step is building logistics corridors, using the Lobito Corridor—linking...
Dollar vs EM Hits New Low, Signaling Further Weakness
The Dollar versus EM today is down to a new low, which is below its level 2 weeks ago at the height of Greenland headlines. It's the Dollar versus EM you want to watch for future direction. The signal it's...
Dollar Stabilizes, Still Strong vs G10; Yen Diverges
Greenback Consolidates after Yesterday's Shellacking: After yesterday’s sharp losses, the US dollar is mostly consolidating with a firmer bias against the G10 currencies. The yen is the exception. The unexpected post-election gains have been extended… https://t.co/s4awtQJ5o7 https://t.co/Xlf89Ydd1E
BP Steps up Cost Cutting as Profits Slide
BP reported 2025 earnings of $7.5 bn, a 15% drop from the previous year, as crude prices fell roughly 20%. The oil major lifted its cost‑saving goal to $5.5‑$6.5 bn by the end of 2027, up from a $5 bn ceiling, and halted...
AI Cheapens Services, Cutting Vendor Profits, Boosting Productivity
That little market freakout is a real mechanism: if AI makes it cheap to do what a vendor used to sell you, the vendor’s future profits fall—even as the rest of us get more productive. https://t.co/HE7npk5km7
Gold Surges Past $5,000 Amid Debt Monetization Fears
Gold is back above $5,000. The rise in gold is one manifestation of the debasement trade, which is about markets seeking safe havens from debt monetization. Big thanks to @DavidWestin from @BloombergTV for all the right questions and a great...
Welcome to 2036: What the World Could Look Like in Ten Years, According to Nearly 450 Experts
An Atlantic Council survey of 447 experts from 72 nations paints a bleak picture of the world in 2036. Most respondents expect China to become the top economic power, while the United States retains military superiority, creating a bipolar or...
Dollar Steadies, Yen Rebounds; US 10‑yr Dips Below
The greenback is a little firmer against the G10 currencies but the yen as it consolidates yesterday's sharp losses. JGB yields are softer. Meanwhile this could be only the 2nd session since mid-Jan that the US 10-year yield...
Cosco Debuts Beibu Gulf and Middle East Car Carrier Service
Cosco Shipping Car Carriers has launched a monthly ro‑ro liner linking the Beibu Gulf ports of Qinzhou and Nansha with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. The service, operated by the vessel Cosco Shengshi, will transport roughly 2,000 commercial vehicles...
Commercial Lending in the U.S. Surges 30 Percent in Late 2025
U.S. commercial real‑estate lending jumped 30% in Q4 2025, driven largely by banks as interest‑rate volatility eased. Originations rose 25% sequentially, with office loans nearly doubling year‑over‑year and overall 2025 originations up 40% from 2024. Depository institutions led the surge,...
French Finance Minister Urges Caution as Paris Agency Proposes 30% China Tariff
France’s finance minister Roland Lescure warned against a blanket 30% tariff on Chinese imports, urging a targeted approach instead. A government planning commission has recommended a sweeping duty or a euro‑yuan depreciation to shield European industry. Lescure highlighted China’s unsustainable...
Luis De Guindos: Interview with Econostream Media
ECB Vice‑President Luis de Guindos told Econostream that inflation has fallen to 1.7% headline and core inflation is edging toward the 2% target, while the euro‑area economy is proving more resilient than expected. He highlighted downside risks from geopolitical flashpoints and...
Scale of Australia’s Dec Chickpea, Lentil Exports Surprises
Australian legume exporters posted a dramatic December surge, shipping 588,122 tonnes of chickpeas and 410,805 tonnes of lentils, up 57% and more than double respectively from November. India dominated demand, taking 63% of chickpeas and 39% of lentils, while Bangladesh and Pakistan...
The Digital Yuan and the New Geography of Monetary Power
The episode examines how China’s digital yuan (e‑yuan) reshapes the internationalization of the renminbi by focusing on usage rather than ownership. It explains that traditional barriers were convertibility and capital controls, which limited the ability to sell or move RMB...
EM Debt Strength Holds as DM Policy Noise Grows>
VanEck’s Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMBX) posted a 5.56% 30‑day yield and outperformed both its benchmark and U.S. Treasuries in January 2026, driven by strong local‑currency exposure and carry. The fund’s portfolio now holds 48% hard‑currency sovereigns, with notable additions...
Macron Urges EU to Adopt Eurobonds Now
Emmanuel Macron: « Now is the time for the EU to launch a joint borrowing capacity, through eurobonds. » https://t.co/NqqbjjecXk
CATL, Cornex, SolaX and Other Chinese Energy Storage Players in Multi-GWh International Agreements
Chinese energy‑storage giants are signing multi‑GWh deals worldwide, signalling a rapid international expansion in 2026. Cornex will deliver 5.5 GWh to Saudi Arabia, while CATL, together with Schroders Greencoat and Lochpine Capital, targets up to 10 GWh of European battery‑storage projects. Tianneng...
Markets Could Slip If Data Undermines Fed Cut Hopes
Stock markets may sour if this week’s US economic data casts doubt on Fed rate cut speculation. #stockmarkets #Fed #Economy #InterestRates #USD #Macro #trading https://t.co/ZEfchApMC0
U.S. Treasury Rates Weekly Update for February 6, 2026
U.S. Treasury yields slipped across the board for the week ending February 6, 2026. The benchmark 30‑year rate fell 0.02 percentage points, while the 10‑year yield dropped 0.04 points to 4.22 %. The 3‑year Treasury rate settled at 3.57 %, reflecting a modest broad‑based decline. These...
AI's Real Divide: Users vs Non‑users of Machines
AI anxiety often misses the key margin: it’s not “humans vs machines,” it’s “humans who use machines vs humans who don’t.” The tech shifts who’s productive—and who gets paid. Remember, you don't need to outrun the bear. https://t.co/jULdqTdCrU
US Grain Storage Capacity Growth Has Stopped
US grain storage capacity expanded steadily from 2000 to 2019, adding roughly 350 million bushels per year, but growth has essentially stopped after 2020. Meanwhile, crop production kept rising, pushing the surplus capacity margin down to just 5 % in 2025. On‑farm...
Elevra, Mangrove Lithium Ink Offtake MoU for NAL Project in Quebec
Elevra Lithium has signed a non‑binding MOU with Canada’s Mangrove Lithium to off‑take up to 144,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate per year from the North American Lithium (NAL) project in Quebec. The supply would begin in 2028, scaling to full...
How 2025’s US Tariff Shocks Can Give Way to Constructive Reforms in 2026
The Trump administration’s 2025 trade strategy oscillated between aggressive, unpredictable tariff threats and a quieter push for long‑standing trade objectives. While high tariffs and threats destabilized markets, the administration began issuing exemptions and rolled back many threats, stabilizing tariff levels...
Dollar Index Plummets; Trade‑Weighted vs Equal‑Weighted Diverge
The $DXY has dropped sharply today. A big picture look at the trade-weighted Dollar index vs an equally-weighted variant: https://t.co/sqTvcv4ihu
Gold Surges Past $5,000 Amid Reckless Fiscal Policy
Gold is back above $5,000. The rally in precious metals is reckless and crazy, but so is global fiscal policy. At some point over the past 20 years, policy makers who believe in keeping public debt stable stopped existing. Makes...
Takaichi’s Landslide Victory
Japan’s first female prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, called a snap election that delivered a historic super‑majority for the Liberal Democratic Party, winning 316 of 465 lower‑house seats. The result gives the LDP unprecedented legislative power to push Takaichi’s agenda without...
Seven Firms Command 35% of SPX Investment Dollars
Employment in S&P 500 companies is 18% of total US employment, but 35 cents of every dollar that goes into the SPX goes to 7 companies. This is a market structure problem and a major issue with our 401k system.
End of an Era: Sec. 201 Tariffs on Imported Solar Panels Expire
Imported solar panels are no longer subject to Section 201 tariffs after they expired on February 6, 2026, ending an eight‑year protection regime that began under the Trump administration. The tariffs, which started at 30 % and gradually declined to 14 % by 2025, were...
Average Homeowner Tenure Rises To 8.6 Years (Americans Aren’t Moving Much)
The average U.S. homeowner now stays in a property for 8.6 years, the longest stretch since the early 2000s. Rising home prices and persistently high mortgage rates are forcing owners to hold onto homes longer, while the share of Americans...
Hapag-Lloyd Dodges Red Ink in Q4
Hapag‑Lloyd posted a Q4 2025 EBIT of $200 million, a 75% drop from the same quarter a year earlier, yet still managed a full‑year profit of $1.1 billion despite plunging spot rates. Container volumes rose modestly, adding 200,000 TEU in Q4 and...
Christine Lagarde: European Parliament Plenary Debate on the ECB Annual Report
In a February 9, 2026 speech to the European Parliament, ECB President Christine Lagarde reaffirmed the central bank’s independence while emphasizing its accountability to elected officials. She reported that headline inflation has fallen to 1.7% in January and is expected...
India and the US Rewire Trade in the Indo-Pacific
The episode examines the interim U.S.-India trade deal announced in February 2026, which cuts U.S. tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18% and obliges India to cease Russian oil imports in favor of U.S. energy supplies. It traces the...
Does Sheinbaum Really Care About Cuba? And How Likely Are US Military Strikes in Mexico?
The episode examines the increasingly fraught relationship between Mexico’s President‑elect Claudia Sheinbaum and former U.S. President Donald Trump, focusing on five intersecting issues: Mexico’s humanitarian aid and oil shipments to Cuba, alleged ties between Venezuela’s Maduro regime and Mexico’s Morena...
Mining without Rules: The Risky US Bet on the Deep Sea
In April 2025 President Trump issued an executive order authorizing U.S. companies to mine critical minerals in international waters, directly contravening the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The move aims to secure rare‑earth supplies amid...
Russian Oil Sector Under Siege as EU Ramps up Pressure and India Winds Down Imports
The European Union announced plans to replace its $44.10‑per‑barrel Russian oil price cap with a comprehensive ban on maritime services for Russian crude, pending member‑state approval. The ban would block hull, machinery, and insurance services, pushing Russia toward the uninsured...
Financial Crises: New Insights
Professor Eric Hilt’s 2026 paper traces the evolution of financial crises over two centuries, highlighting how regulatory regimes and banking structures shaped their frequency and character. Early crises were often sparked by banking panics, while the post‑World War II regulatory era...
Talk Your Book: The Three A’s of the U.S. Economy
The latest "Talk Your Book" episode breaks down the three A’s shaping the U.S. economy—asset prices, artificial intelligence, and the affluent consumer. It highlights a widening market breadth and offers a framework for valuing the world’s largest firms. The discussion...
US Backs Altona’s Mozambique Rare Earths Project
Altona Rare Earths announced that the U.S. Trade & Development Agency will support its Monte Muambe project in Mozambique, prompting a 76% surge in the company's London‑listed shares. The backing aims to map technical and financial routes for extracting rare‑earth...
China Debt Ratio Exceeds 300 Percent of GDP Mark
The episode explains that China’s official macro debt ratio hit a record 302.3% of GDP in 2025, driven primarily by government borrowing while household and private company debt fell. It highlights the real‑estate crisis as the catalyst that halted household...
Deterrence Won’t Fail in the Taiwan Strait — It Will Be Bypassed
In this episode J. William DeMarco argues that recent Chinese military activities around Taiwan are less about rehearsing an invasion and more about a strategy of paralysis—using encirclement, law‑enforcement vessels, and limited rocket fire to create economic and political pressure...
UFLPA Enforcement: When a “Red Light” Turns Yellow
The Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, enacted in 2021, created a rebuttable presumption that Xinjiang‑origin goods are barred from the U.S. market. U.S. Customs data show a sharp drop in UFLPA‑related detentions, from roughly $1.58 billion in 2023 and $1.40 billion in...
ASEAN Inc.: One Portfolio, Seven Markets — and a Clear Test of Southeast Asia’s Investment Story
The episode breaks down the ASEAN Inc. portfolio—a $1 million, equally weighted allocation across seven U.S.-listed ETFs covering Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, and a regional ASEAN‑40 fund—and shows it delivered a 21.3% annualized total return through February 2026, beating...
Container Lines’ Red Sea Mixed Messages Confuse Shippers
Shippers are grappling with mixed signals from carriers about returning to the Suez Canal route. Maersk said peace in the Middle East is required, yet announced two services will resume via the Red Sea with military escort. CMA CGM has shifted...
Which of the 132 Chinese EV Automakers Will Enter Canada?
Chinese electric‑vehicle makers are eyeing Canada as a strategic foothold into North America, with a government‑approved quota of 49,000 units annually – roughly 3.8% of the market. BYD is projected to dominate the allocation, taking about 30% of the quota,...
Anutin’s Bhumjaithai Upsets the Odds: Surprise Thai Election Win Reshapes Southeast Asia’s Geopolitical Chessboard
The episode dissects Thailand’s surprise February 8, 2026 election, where Anutin Charnvirakul’s Bhumjaithai party captured nearly 200 seats, shifting the country’s foreign policy toward deeper engagement with China while prompting a tougher U.S. response. It highlights the immediate implications for...