Today's Global Economy Pulse

Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
The Mineral Imperative: How and Why China Became a Metals and Minerals Superpower
The episode traces how China transformed from a post‑1949 poverty-stricken nation into the world’s dominant metals and minerals superpower through a deliberate, century‑long strategy that placed mining, processing, and heavy industry at the core of national sovereignty. It outlines three phases: Mao’s state‑led build‑out of a basic mining and steel skeleton; Deng’s market‑oriented expansion that layered private and foreign capital onto that foundation while institutionalising resource licensing; and Xi’s push for value‑chain sovereignty, dual circulation, and Belt‑and‑Road corridors that secure raw material flows and embed Chinese standards globally. The host highlights the role of infant‑industry protection, massive human‑capital development, and strategic consolidation—especially in rare‑earths—showing how these policies turned China’s raw‑material sector into a geopolitical lever.
NEC Director Predicts Slightly Lower Jobs, NFP May Miss Forecast
https://t.co/k2T7oPbMh8 In an interview with CNBC on Monday (February 9, 2026), Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council, advised markets to expect "slightly smaller job numbers" in the coming months. These remarks, have led many to speculate that the January...

Moldova. EU – Yes; CIS – No; Unirea – Not This Time
Moldova announced its formal exit from the Commonwealth of Independent States, signaling a decisive break from a key Russian‑linked institution. At the same time, Chişinău is accelerating its integration with the European Union under President Maia Sandu’s pro‑Western agenda. Public...

We’re in a Trade-Down Economy, and Ulta Is Winning
Consumer confidence has fallen to a decade low, prompting a trade‑down in spending as Americans cut big‑ticket indulgences and shift toward essentials. Even high‑income households are frequenting discount retailers like Walmart and Costco, reflecting broader budget pressure. Ulta Beauty’s hybrid...

Job Jitters
The episode examines the current economic turbulence on Main Street, highlighting widespread layoffs and soft retail sales, while contrasting this with TSMC's explosive growth in the tech sector. It also explores the impact of a new AI-driven tax‑management tool that...

What's Driving Northern Ireland's Falling Fuel Prices?
Petrol prices in Northern Ireland have fallen to 124.2 pence per litre, the lowest level in five years, while diesel holds steady at 131.9 pence. The decline follows a global oil oversupply and easing geopolitical tensions after the 2022 price spike triggered...
Jobs Report Day Shows Record Forecast Divergence
Good morning and welcome to Jobs Report Day in the US. The consensus forecasts are for a monthly employment gain of 65,000, an unemployment rate of 4.4%, and a 3.7% annual increase in average hourly earnings. As we head into this release,...

Emerging Economies Drive 80% of Electricity Growth
A new report shows that global electricity demand will increase at an average annual rate of 3.6% between 2026 and 2030. Emerging economies will account for nearly 80% of additional electricity consumption through 2030. More here: https://t.co/ZtTGSlWOMx https://t.co/dw82OPRKGw

Xi’s Broken Heart: Why China’s Markets Are Bleeding Out
The episode examines the growing divergence between China’s onshore stock markets and Hong Kong’s offshore market, arguing that this split reflects a deepening mistrust of Xi Jinping’s political control over finance. While mainland indices appear stable, the offshore market is...
An FTA No One Is Talking About Can Give India a Strategic Edge
The India‑Chile free trade negotiations are moving toward a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement that explicitly includes critical minerals such as lithium, copper, and cobalt. Chile’s abundant reserves could supply India’s “Make in India” and clean‑energy ambitions, while recent moves by...

Pauses Without Peace: What Last Year’s Ceasefires Reveal About Global Conflict Management
In this episode Gopi Krishna Bhamidipati examines how the Trump administration’s diplomatic interventions in 2025‑2026 produced ceasefires across Gaza, the Israel‑Iran clash, India‑Pakistan tensions, the Thailand‑Cambodia border dispute, and Ukraine‑Russia, but stopped short of achieving lasting political settlements. The host...
India Plans to Lift Bank FDI Cap, Boosting Lending
India’s government is considering raising the foreign direct investment (FDI) cap for banks from 20% to 49%. SMART MOVE. MORE FDI = MORE BANK CAPITAL = MORE LENDING CAPACITY https://t.co/agaPK9vbzO

China Lets Yuan Rise to Strongest Level in Years as De-Dollarisation Trend Grows
China’s central bank set the yuan’s daily fixing at 6.9438 per dollar, the strongest level in 33 months, as the currency continued to appreciate. Offshore trading pushed the yuan to 6.909 per dollar, reflecting a broader rotation out of US...

Nigeria's Inflation Surge Linked to Excess Money Supply
Nigeria’s inflation rate is DOUBLE NGA’s inflation target at 15.29%/yr. Nigeria’s money supply is growing at 15.19%/yr, ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of ~11.83%-14.83%/yr, a rate consistent with Nigeria’s 6%-9%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/367h7H4ytf

HMM Stays in the Black in Q4
South Korean carrier HMM posted a Q4 2025 net profit of KRW 364 billion, a 59.9% plunge from the prior period, while revenues fell 14.2% to KRW 2.71 trillion. The full‑year results showed a 50.3% profit drop to KRW 1.88 trillion as container freight rates slumped 49%...

Time Called on Happy Hour as French Wine and Spirit Sales Sour in Mainland China, US
French wine and spirit exporters recorded their steepest decline since the pandemic, with total sales falling 7.9% to €14.3 billion in 2025. Wine shipments slipped 4.1% while spirits plunged 17.4%, driven by a 23.8% collapse in cognac exports. The downturn reflects...
How Federal Reserve’s Decentralised Structure Produced New Ideas on Banking Policy
Recent research by Michael Bordo and Edward Prescott shows that the Federal Reserve’s decentralized structure generated fresh banking‑policy ideas in the 1950s and 1960s. In response to industry consolidation and legal reforms, the Board and regional Reserve Banks hired industrial‑organization...
Markets Await Jobs Data to Gauge Fed Cut Prospects
Will stock markets find enough to like in US jobs data? It’s all about Fed interest rate cut expectations. #Jobs #NFP #StockMarket #Dollar #Fed #Macro #Trading https://t.co/UBCpyuHxhZ

Chinese Traders Amplified Gold Volatility
The episode examines how Chinese traders, long recognized for aggressive speculation, sparked a dramatic swing in gold prices—from a surge to $5,600 in late January to a plunge to $4,423 within days. The host recounts a December report predicting this...

Forecast: Tariff Policies Will Weaken Container Imports in First Half of 2026
The NRF and Hackett Associates’ Global Port Tracker predicts U.S. container imports will fall in the first half of 2026, with a 2 percent year‑over‑year decline to 12.27 million TEUs. Full‑year volume is projected at 25.4 million TEUs, a 0.4 percent drop from 2024....

Markets Are Now a Beauty Contest on Steroids
The article revisits Keynes’s beauty‑contest analogy, arguing that human psychology still drives markets, but the information age has accelerated opinion‑chasing. It uses the recent silver frenzy—spurred by geopolitical tension, AI‑related demand, and massive leverage—to illustrate how social media and bots...
:max_bytes(150000):strip_icc():format(jpeg)/GettyImages-22113258881-f6461155210747d09aa8a6f5ea26c0cd.jpg)
Trump Expects An Economic Miracle From The New Fed Chair
President Donald Trump urged his Fed chair pick, Kevin Warsh, to deliver 15% annual GDP growth, a target rarely achieved outside wartime. The president’s demand follows criticism of current chair Jerome Powell and calls for aggressive rate cuts. Economists note...

Beyond Blocs
The article argues that the world is moving beyond bloc politics toward issue‑based cooperation, with Europe seeking strategic autonomy while engaging China on a case‑by‑case basis. Recent high‑level visits to Beijing by European and other leaders underscore this shift. Trade...

Wrapped Helps Spotify Add Users Despite Artists' Criticism over Fees
Spotify reported a surge in paid subscribers, adding 9 million to reach 290 million in the last quarter of 2025, driving net profit to €1.17 bn and total revenue to $4.5 bn. The company’s annual Wrapped campaign engaged over 300 million users and generated 630 million social...
Unemployment Rises to 4.5%, Signaling Market Underperformance
"So what does the job market data say to you?" "It says that we're underperforming right now... The thing that matters most to people's lives is the unemployment rate. Can you find work? And that was as low as...

Is a Dollar Vibe Shift Under Way?
The Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center podcast explores whether a sustained dollar depreciation is emerging. Host Dan McDowell explains how a weaker greenback could reshape U.S. trade balances, investment flows, and national‑security calculations. The discussion highlights potential benefits for exporters alongside higher...
Uranium Market Gathers Momentum in 2026: Sprott
Uranium spot prices surged above $100 per pound in January 2026, the first breach of that level in two years, signaling renewed market vigor. Sprott Asset Management, a major buyer, added 4 million lb to its fund this year, bringing total holdings...
US Antimony, Americas Gold to Jointly Build Idaho Plant
United States Antimony and Americas Gold have formed a 51-49 joint venture to construct a hydrometallurgical processing plant in Idaho’s Silver Valley. The facility will treat antimony feed from Americas Gold’s Galena complex and could handle additional sources, aiming to...
First Quantum Credit Outlook Improves on Cobre Panama Progress
S&P Global Ratings upgraded First Quantum Minerals' credit outlook to positive, citing tangible progress toward restarting the Cobre Panama copper mine. The agency now expects the mine to resume operations in the first half of 2026, with a production ramp‑up later...
Dollar Weakening as Diverging Policies Boost Global Assets
I keep playing through the potential outcomes over the coming months and I have a very difficult time painting a bull case for the dollar. I expect: 1. Monetary policy divergence widens (more dovish US vs RoW/Japan) 2. Capital flight risk as...
Detroit Bridge Owner Lobbies Hours Before Trump Critic
SCOOP: Detroit Billionaire Owner of Ambassador Bridge Lobbied Administration, Met With Howard Lutnick Monday, Hours Before Trump Lambasted New Detroit-Michigan Gordie Howe Bridge w/ @tylerpager #cdnpoli https://t.co/A1JpN7GgU0

U.S. Secretary Of State: Brazil & China To 'Trade In Own Currencies & Get Around The Dollar'
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio highlighted Brazil's new trade agreement with China that will use their own currencies instead of the U.S. dollar, signaling a shift toward a secondary, dollar‑independent global economy. He warned that as more nations transact...

Russia's Economy Outpaces UK Despite Sanctions
A dirty little secret that the Russiaphobes in London keep under the rug: RUSSIA’S ECONOMY IS OUTPACING THE UK’S. SANCTIONS = BACKFIRE = RARELY WORK. https://t.co/FLcUb0QXGw
US Political Will to Aid Venezuela Near Zero
Distinguished Columbia Univ. Professor Jeff Sachs on Venezuela: “The will to run Venezuela other than maybe in Marco Rubio's and Donald Trump's head is zero in the United States… a year from now, Venezuela is a forgotten issue in the United...

Which Latin American Leaders Will Be Forced From Power in 2026?
In this episode the host examines prediction‑market odds for Latin American leaders being ousted before the end of 2026, using data from Kalshi and Polymarket. He highlights Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador as the most volatile cases, while noting that...

Climax Top Signals Bear Market for Precious Metals
OUT NOW - @BergMilton on: - clear sign of "climax top" in gold & silver - why he expects a precious metals bear market - S&P 500, Bitcoin, Software + Korean stocks & more Apple🔊https://t.co/bNqmCOVqMV Spotify📽️https://t.co/mnN6Dn02hi 1/3 https://t.co/U3F0Pxojhy
New BLS Commissioner Signals Positive Economic Outlook Amid Trump
I'm trying something new: Video essays exploring recent economic developments. There's... a lot to talk about these days. Here's the first one: Thoughts on Trump, the BLS, and the new BLS Commissioner. Spoiler: This is a good news story. https://t.co/M4NltoNXJR

Dollar Look Past Soft US Data, 10-Year Yield Dips
The U.S. dollar stayed firm in early trade despite flat retail sales, while the 10‑year Treasury yield slipped back below 4.2%. Market participants are largely ignoring the consumption miss, focusing instead on tomorrow’s delayed non‑farm payrolls as the primary driver...

U.S. Stocks Under Pressure as SPX/VEU Hits Near Two‑Year Low
The 'sell America' trade pressure seems to be picking up again. The SPX-VEU (rest of world equity ETF) ratio is the lowest since April 22nd. A little further and it is a two year low. Adding the DXY Dollar Index in for...

UAE’s GDP per Capita Fell, Saudi Arabia Modestly Rose
The headlines from the UAE always scream “Hot Growth.” But when compared to its arch-rival, Saudi Arabia, the UAE looks dreadful. Since 2008, the UAE’s GDP per capita shrank while the Kingdom’s grew modestly. https://t.co/aXuH6QU5nj

Behind Putin’s $15 Billion Arms Revenue Claim
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that arms exports generated roughly $15 billion in foreign‑exchange earnings in 2025 and that more than 340 cooperation projects are slated for 2026‑2028. Independent analysts caution that Russia’s defence‑sector data are opaque, making the figure difficult...

AI Threatens S&P's Analytics, Not Its Core Ratings
About 65% of $SPGI's (down >20% over past month) pre-tax earnings come from ratings & indices. The potential challenge that AI poses to S&P's analytics/consulting/intel business is something I get. But I don't understand AI's bear case for ratings & indices,...

Mexico's Inflation On Target, Money Supply Within Golden Growth
Mexico’s inflation rate is ON TARGET at 3.65%/yr Mexico’s money supply (M4) is growing at 7.91%/yr, WITHIN Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of ~7.3%-9.3%/yr, a rate consistent with Mexico’s 2%-4%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/4w05Yr94Mz

Pacific Container Spot Rates Plunge Ahead of Contract Season
Spot rates on Pacific container lanes have slumped ahead of the annual contract season, with eastbound transpacific prices to the U.S. West Coast falling below $1,700 per FEU and some offers as low as $1,400. The slowdown follows a delayed...
Weak Retail, Slowing Wages Hint at Poor NFP
Bad retail sales, falling wage growth and now Hassett and Navarro comments implying bad NFP tomorrow...
US Stocks Look Strong, Yet Lag Global Peers
"The US stock market, while it looks strong, is actually much weaker than almost any other industrialized country.... So while we're doing well… everyone else is doing even better." https://t.co/7KavXe5LXh
Diamond Slump Pushes Botswana to Broaden Mining Base
A deep slump in diamond prices is forcing Botswana, the world’s top diamond producer by value, to broaden its mining portfolio. The government announced plans to explore copper, cobalt and other critical minerals, noting that only about 30% of its...

Next US-China Trade Talks Tipped in Advance of Trump-Xi Summit as Fragile Truce Holds
High‑level US‑China trade talks are being staged ahead of President Donald Trump’s April summit with Xi Jinping, as Treasury officials led by Scott Bessent met Vice‑Premier He Lifeng in Beijing. The delegations aim to keep the fragile tariff truce intact...

Dollar Stabilizes, Still Strong vs G10; Yen Diverges
Greenback Consolidates after Yesterday's Shellacking: After yesterday’s sharp losses, the US dollar is mostly consolidating with a firmer bias against the G10 currencies. The yen is the exception. The unexpected post-election gains have been extended… https://t.co/s4awtQJ5o7 https://t.co/Xlf89Ydd1E
AI Cheapens Services, Cutting Vendor Profits, Boosting Productivity
That little market freakout is a real mechanism: if AI makes it cheap to do what a vendor used to sell you, the vendor’s future profits fall—even as the rest of us get more productive. https://t.co/HE7npk5km7