Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
EXCLUSIVE | Trump Pauses China Tech Curbs Ahead of Xi Summit
The Trump administration has temporarily shelved a suite of technology security measures targeting Chinese firms ahead of the April Trump‑Xi summit. The paused actions include a ban on China Telecom’s U.S. operations, restrictions on Chinese equipment in data centres, and proposed bans on TP‑Link routers and Chinese electric vehicles. The decision follows the October trade truce and reflects a strategic choice to avoid antagonising Beijing during high‑level talks. Critics argue the pause could leave U.S. data‑centre and AI infrastructure exposed to Chinese threats.
International Business Briefs | Ailing Thames Water Seeks Further £823m
Britain’s Thames Water announced that its creditors are reviewing an additional £823 million of funding, adding to the £1.43 billion already drawn from its super‑senior liquidity facility. In Nigeria, Dangote Petroleum’s refinery completed 72‑hour performance tests, confirming full‑capacity operation at 650,000 barrels...
Release: Market Participants Survey
On November 9 2026 the Bank of Canada published its quarterly Market Participants Survey, a systematic outreach to a broad cross‑section of financial‑market actors. The survey solicits expectations on key macro‑economic indicators such as inflation, growth, and exchange rates, as well as...
Publication: Summary of Deliberations
The Bank of Canada released a detailed Summary of Deliberations outlining the Governing Council’s discussion of the monetary‑policy decision announced two weeks earlier. The document highlights the Council’s assessment of inflation trends, labour‑market tightness, and the domestic growth outlook. It...
Publication: Summary of Deliberations
The Bank of Canada’s Governing Council released a detailed summary of its monetary‑policy deliberations for the decision announced two weeks ago. The Council kept the policy interest rate steady at 4.75%, citing modest progress toward its 2% inflation target. Officials...
Interest Rate Announcement
On December 9, 2026 the Bank of Canada will release its next overnight rate target, one of eight scheduled policy announcements each year. The press release will outline the economic factors shaping the decision, including inflation trends, labour market conditions, and global...
Limited Risk Disclosure Updates Despite Political and Economic Volatility
Deloitte and USC’s Peter Arkley Institute released its fifth‑year analysis of S&P 500 risk‑factor disclosures, finding that average page counts rose to 14.3 and risk‑factor totals to 32. Despite SEC reforms aimed at trimming disclosures, 56% of firms added pages and 37%...
Price Controls Trigger Chaotic, Uneven Resource Allocation
I'm super excited for my new paper with @ATabarrok and Mark Whitmeyer: "Chaos and Misallocation under Price Controls" During the 1973-74 gasoline crisis, the U.S. had about a 9 percent national shortfall. But that was far from evenly spread out. Over...
EU Parliament Backs Digital Euro to Curb US Payment Dominance
Post-Trump assault on Greenland, the EU parliament delivers a big win for the digital euro as it wins 420-158 backing in EU Parliament straw poll The digital euro couldn't have better timing as the EU looks to the digital euro...
Finally, CPI Inflation Has a New Base Year
India's Statistics Ministry has finally updated the consumer price index (CPI) base year, moving it from 2012 to 2024 using the 2023‑24 Household Consumption Expenditure Survey. The revision expands the index from six to twelve COICOP‑aligned divisions and introduces All‑India...
Rate Expectations
The episode dissects the impact of January's surprisingly strong jobs report, which undermined expectations of a weakening labor market and pushed anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts further into the future. It also examines a new Congressional Budget Office outlook that...
Europe Debates Future Ties with US: Decouple or Double Down?
Europe is split on its future relationship with the United States under President Trump. Eastern European NATO members such as Romania and Lithuania argue for tighter security cooperation and participation in the critical‑minerals ministerial, citing Russian aggression. In contrast, France,...
From Ore to Order: Why Understanding China Is a Precondition for Working in Mining Today
In this episode the host explores Jonathan D. T. Ward’s book *China’s Vision of Victory* and its implications for the mining sector, especially critical minerals like lithium, rare earths, and copper. Ward argues that the Chinese Communist Party’s long‑term goal...
Singapore Budget 2026: Key Highlights for HR Leaders, Employers, and Employees
Singapore’s 2026 Budget, delivered by Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, projects growth slowing to 2‑4% and introduces a suite of measures to keep the city‑state competitive. For employers, the budget raises the minimum qualifying salary for new Employment Passes to $6,000...
Air Canada’s Airbus A350 Order Signals Geopolitical Shift Away From Boeing as Trump Policies Reshape Global Aviation
Air Canada announced a firm order for eight Airbus A350‑1000 wide‑body jets, citing the aircraft’s 9,000‑nautical‑mile range and 25% lower fuel burn as key efficiency drivers. The purchase enables new nonstop routes to Southeast Asia, India and Australia. It arrives...
Could a BRICS Currency Work?
The article probes the feasibility of a shared BRICS currency aimed at challenging the US dollar’s global dominance. While mainstream economists have long dismissed the concept, the bloc is actively seeking new settlement rails to lessen dollar dependence. Structural hurdles—including...
Piero Cipollone: Europe and Monetary Sovereignty
In a February 2026 speech, ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone warned that Europe’s monetary sovereignty is threatened by growing dependencies on foreign payment systems and digital assets. He argued that control over the euro, both in cash and digital...
Suffocating an Island: What the U.S. Blockade Is Doing to Cuba
The United States has intensified its embargo on Cuba, cutting oil shipments and tightening sanctions under President Trump and Senator Rubio. The fuel shortage has reduced electricity to three‑to‑six hours a day and halted public transport, forcing Cubans onto bicycles...
Economics Has Failed on the Climate Crisis. This Complexity Scientist Has a Mind-Blowing Plan to Fix That
Complexity scientist Doyne Farmer proposes a $100 million global economic simulator that models every firm individually, starting with the energy sector’s 30,000 companies and 160,000 assets. By replacing perfect‑rationality and equilibrium assumptions with simple, adaptive agents, the model promises forecasts that...
Treasury’s Cash Boost Saves Debt, Costs SARB
The state accessed funds held in the Gold and Foreign Exchange Contingency Reserve Account (GFECRA). When Treasury spent the funds, liquidity surged through the banking system, forcing the SARB to manage (“sterilize”) the excess cash, so short-term rates didn’t fall below...
The Power of Water to Transform Africa's Future
Access to safe water remains a critical bottleneck in Sub‑Saharan Africa, with roughly one‑third of the population—and nearly half in rural areas—still lacking basic services. The African Union’s 2026 Year of Assuring Sustainable Water Availability and Safe Sanitation Systems, backed...
China’s Wingtech Faces Setback as Dutch Court Keeps Nexperia CEO Suspended, Orders Probe
A Dutch court upheld the suspension of Nexperia’s former CEO Zhang Xuezheng and ordered a six‑month governance investigation, signaling a setback for Chinese parent Wingtech. The ruling keeps a court‑appointed temporary director in place and maintains share control by a...
BlockFills Freezes Withdrawals as Crypto Volatility Spikes
First, you lose in a matter of weeks 50%% to 99% - depending on which shitcoin you were duped to invest in - and then they don’t even allow you to withdraw the remaining crumbs of your investments. Standard operating...
A Geopolitical State of Emergency?
The episode examines escalating geopolitical risks to Europe’s energy security, focusing on rising US‑Iran tensions, Russia’s renewed attacks on Ukrainian energy assets, and shifting US interest in Greenland. Experts from Eurasia Group, Aurora Energy Research, and Montel analyze how these...
Europe’s LNG Hunger Redirects Chinese Shipments to Europe
LNG demand in Europe is so strong that it's taking a shipment *FROM CHINA* ⚠️ An LNG tanker reloaded a shipment at a Chinese terminal and is heading to Europe (China is the world’s largest LNG Buyer) Europe's LNG imports have surged...
2025 Real GDP per Capita Rises, Energy Cuts Ease Inflation
Today's GDP figures show a much needed pickup in real GDP per capita - 2025 was the first year this measure grew for three years. In April, energy bill reductions from the 2025 Budget will come into effect, tackling inflation...
Trump Calls India-US Trade Deal ‘Historic’ as Tariff Cuts and Coal Exports Take Centre Stage
President Donald Trump called the newly concluded India‑US trade deal historic, highlighting its potential to expand American energy exports, especially coal. The interim agreement slashes U.S. duties on Indian goods to a uniform 18% across textiles, apparel, chemicals and more,...
FX Market Consolidates After Strong January Jobs Data
Consolidation Featured after Yesterday's Big FX Moves: The general tone in the foreign exchange market is one of consolidation after yesterday’s stronger than expected January jobs data injected volatility into dollar trading. The news stream is light… https://t.co/TEyGQAuZOx https://t.co/b9kn9ngrdN
Makhlouf Predicts ECB Could Cut or Raise Rates
Makhlouf says next ECB move could be interest-rate cut or hike https://t.co/A8bEIJQ2pB via @livfletcher_ https://t.co/Wq9tyTki8q
Fed Should ‘Aggressively’ Be Cutting Rates, Investor Says Amid Jobs Report Release
Anthony Pompliano, CEO of Professional Capital Management, argued on “Making Money” that the Federal Reserve should aggressively cut interest rates following the latest jobs report. He noted that the labor market remains solid but still offers room for monetary easing...
Asian Stocks Outpace US, Shifting Money Abroad
Perhaps the trade this year isn't so much "sell America," but rather something like: "spend a lot more money everywhere else" - at least so far this year. For example, Asian stocks have made their best start over US equities...
Dedollarisation Isn't Driving Yields Lower, Media Misleads
Is Dedollarisation driving bond yields lower or is social media pushing the wrong story? A deep dive into dollar strength, Fed policy, gold, and global trade dynamics. Full breakdown inside 👉️ : https://t.co/qdYNFtTIhV https://t.co/rMDnvdP14u
U.S. Warns Peru Is ‘Losing Sovereignty’ Over Chinese-Owned Chancay Port
The U.S. State Department warned that Peru is losing sovereignty over the Chinese‑owned Chancay port after a local judge ruled the facility exempt from state regulator oversight. The $1.3 billion port, built by Cosco Shipping Ports and inaugurated by President Xi...
Stablecoins Reveal New Gresham’s Law: Good Money, Bad Payments
Noelle is _always_ worth reading, but today is especially good Stablecoins and the new Gresham’s Law https://t.co/OPJ4BdgNVj "So, the US ended up with a system of good money, bad payments." https://t.co/B0xMfEdzHl
Productivity Gains Are the Real Driver of Inflation
Posted this thread two years ago on the enigmatic relationship between inflation and productivity, and more relevant now than ever—
US Budget Deficits: Spitting Into the Wind
The CBO’s 2026‑2036 outlook shows U.S. federal deficits as a percent of GDP climbing to levels not seen since the 2007‑09 recession. While the primary deficit is modestly declining, net interest costs are soaring, already surpassing defense spending and projected...
Trump’s Pipeline Push Could Cheapen Coal Rail Transport
🚂If President Trump is serious about increasing coal exports dramatically, and if he is serious about US energy dominance, he will build oil pipelines and prohibit rail transportation of oil. This will provide the US coal industry with the help...
USDCNH and USDHKD Show Strong Inverse Correlation
The correlation between the USDCNH and USDHKD is the most intense and consistent inverted I've seen since the former (theoretically) 'floated'. What's going on there? https://t.co/KsfLfKWwTf
Munis Mixed, UST Yields Rise Post-Jobs Report
Municipal bond prices were mixed on Wednesday as U.S. Treasury yields climbed following a stronger‑than‑expected jobs report, prompting market participants to reassess the timing of the Federal Reserve’s next rate cut. The two‑year muni‑UST spread slipped to 59% while longer‑dated...
Venezuela's Oil Shifts: Implications for Canada Discussed in Calgary
I’ll be in Calgary in early March for a discussion hosted by the Canadian Heavy Oil Association about what recent developments in Venezuela mean for Canada’s oil industry. Join us! And drop me a line if you want to grab a...
Refineries Drowning in Silver Scrap, Bearish Outlook
Why @BergMilton is bearish silver: refineries are OVERWHELMED with silver scrap, EVEN MORE than in 2011 (prior speculative peak). Well sourced from "largest smelter in New York" Apple🔊https://t.co/bNqmCOVqMV Spotify📽️https://t.co/mnN6Dn02hi https://t.co/ng04tObLMG
Stunning Resilience
The 10‑year Treasury yield slipped 8 basis points after a trio of surprisingly strong labor‑market releases, settling just below the 4.20% technical barrier. January’s payrolls added 130,000 jobs, far exceeding the 70,000 forecast, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%...
Argentine Peso Rallies, USDARS Breaks 100‑Day SMA Streak
In case you haven't been keeping tabs, the Argentine Peso has been gaining some traction recently. $USDARS has taken out some recent support and ended a 1,689 (trading) day streak above the 100-day SMA https://t.co/Vq0kH5UKHg
East Asia Dominates Global Goods Trade Surplus, Eclipsing Europe
Crazy how much of the global (goods) trade surplus is in East Asia now. Even with the "fake" Irish pharma surplus, the euro area is dwarfed 1/ https://t.co/eZjcgAlVqC
Why the Largest U.S. Auto Dealer Isn't Interested in Chinese Cars — for Now
Lithia Motors, the largest U.S. auto dealer, said it will not bring Chinese‑made vehicles to its domestic showrooms for now. CEO Bryan DeBoer cited the high cost of establishing new franchise infrastructure and uncertain return‑on‑investment, not politics or logistics, as...
US Grads Face Higher Unemployment; Eurozone More Educated Workforce
Very striking data these a. on US graduate unemployment and b. higher share of tertiary education in Eurozone labor force than in the US. Explore these economic insights in today's Chartbook Top Links. https://t.co/xNeFQVgZKf
NFP Beat Trims Fed Rate Cut Expectations by 8‑12bps
In the wake of this morning's NFPs beat and downtick in the unemployment, Fed Funds futures have shaved off ~8bps worth of expected cuts through 2026 - was as much as 12bps. Someone is going to be surprised if this continues:...
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What To Expect From Friday's Report On Inflation
Economists expect the January Consumer Price Index to rise 2.5% year‑over‑year, a dip from December’s 2.7% and the lowest headline inflation since May 2021. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, is also projected at 2.5%, matching the lowest...
Trump Urges Netanyahu to Pursue Iran Nuclear Deal
OIL MARKET: President Trump says he told Israeli Primer Minister Netanyahu that his preference is to cut a deal with Iran. “I insisted that negotiations with Iran continue to see whether or not a deal can be consummated.” https://t.co/VhkfL7QBHF
The UK Chagos Deal Is an 'Act of Great Stupidity'
The United Kingdom has announced a plan to transfer sovereignty over the Chagos Islands to an unrelated African nation, sparking alarm among security analysts. The islands host Diego Garcia, a joint U.S.–U.K. military base that underpins American power projection across...