Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Changing Narratives on China-MENA
A wave of think‑tank discussions in early 2025 highlighted a shift in how experts view China’s role in the Middle East. After a period of heightened activity—dubbed “peak China‑MENA” between Xi’s 2022 Saudi visit and the October 2023 Hamas attack—analysts now see Beijing’s influence as limited, especially in security and diplomatic arenas. While Chinese trade, energy, and technology investments continue to expand, the United States remains the primary stabilizing force in the region. The narrative has moved from a maximalist to a minimalist assessment of China’s power.
China’s 2026 Policy Loosening Boosts Steel, Non‑Ferrous Demand
China signals looser policy and faster green transition for 2026, supporting steel and non-ferrous demand. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/02/china-2026-economic-policy-direction.html
SPX Skew Steepens to 1Y High as Tariff Uncertainty Rises
Cboe’s Macro Volatility Digest shows SPX 1‑month options skew climbing to its highest level in a year. The steepening reflects heightened uncertainty from evolving U.S. tariff policy, geopolitical tensions and lingering AI concerns, while oil volatility spiked to 52%. Equity...
SPX Skew Steepens to 1Y High as Tariff Uncertainty Rises
The Cboe report shows the S&P 500 1‑month skew surged to a one‑year high, reflecting heightened demand for downside protection as tariff policy uncertainty intensifies. Oil implied volatility spiked to 52% after fears of a US‑Iran conflict, while equity and rates...
EPU: A Beneficiary Of Peru's Solid GDP Growth And High Commodity Prices
The iShares MSCI Peru and Global Exposure ETF (EPU) has delivered double‑digit returns in 2026, extending the strong performance it posted in 2025. Its trailing price‑to‑earnings ratio sits at 20.83×, still cheaper than the S&P 500, reflecting a higher cyclical tilt....
South Korea Passes, Most Fail: Inside Trump’s New Hierarchy of “Model Allies” Even In Post-SCOTUS Ruling
The U.S. Supreme Court’s 6‑3 decision invalidating Trump’s IEEPA‑based tariffs did not dismantle the president’s emerging hierarchy of “model allies.” Trump’s administration continues to press allies to meet three benchmarks: 5% of GDP defense spending, sizable U.S. arms purchases...
SPX Near Record High Amid Soaring Stock Volatility
As of Fri's close, the SPX sat just 0.99% below its Jan 28 all-time high (~6,978.6). Yet everyone's screaming "chaos & uncertainty"? Blue = mkt-cap wgted avg "VIX" of the 500 constituents (now 38) Orange = standard 30-day VIX (17.6) Green =...
Cartel Boss Killing Jolts US-Mexico Freight Corridors
The confirmed killing of Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as El Mencho, sparked immediate cartel retaliation across western Mexico. Road blockades, vehicle burnings and armed clashes disrupted key highways and temporarily halted operations at the Port of...
Markets Punish India for Defying US, History Shows
The Gift Nifty fools think India will get some special deal You try to dishonor a deal with the US and see what happens. That will surely get you the lower circuit in Gift futures overnight. The stupidity of markets. I am not saying...
Trump Serves as His Own China Desk and USTR
Trump is his own China desk (and his own USTR) Brilliant reporting from @dimi of the FT (Strikes me as a very fair summary of the inside DC debate on China) 1/ https://t.co/SYfGL5iROn
The USD Has Continued Its Slide in Asia Trade. USD/JPY Is Down a Big Figure.
Asian currency markets saw the U.S. dollar dominate trade as a fresh tariff dispute intensified cross‑border transactions. The pressure translated into a sharp decline in USD/JPY, with the yen appreciating against the greenback. Trading was further constrained by a public...
Liquidity Signals Business Cycle End in 2‑3 Years
Interesting read, certainly something to consider. Even somewhat aligns with the business cycle views I expressed here: https://t.co/Ao19CL9d25 I think there is a reason to believe the current business cycle will end within the next 2-3 years from a liquidity point of...
China’s Overlapping Industries Amplify Industrial Policy Impact
Kyle Chan: "China’s strength across multiple overlapping industries creates a compounding effect for its industrial policy efforts." https://t.co/1Z2o8dcRWq
E-Commerce Stocks Rally as Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump Tariffs
The episode examines the Supreme Court's 6-3 decision that invalidated most of former President Trump's global tariffs, a move that instantly lifted e‑commerce stocks such as Amazon, Wayfair, Etsy, Shopify, eBay and Pinduoduo. The hosts explain how the tariffs, imposed...
Syria's Oil Output Slashed To
Syria's oil production is a zero-rounding error @NoamRaydan Current levels are roughly 100–120 kb/d. Max production before the Civil War was 400 kb/d. As you note, its heavy, sour crude must be exported to Greece or Italy b/c it has no complex...
Stocks Soar; Economy Avoids Recession for Years
Stocks have had one of their best three year runs in history and the economy hasn't sniffed a recession. https://t.co/hBhFjc8em2
Queensland Gov’t Trade Mission Targets Manufacturing and Resources Growth in East Asia
The Queensland Government announced a trade mission to South Korea and Japan, led by Minister Dale Last, to boost investment in the state’s mining, critical‑minerals and manufacturing sectors. The delegation will promote coal, gas, and the revived Queensland Train Manufacturing...
Europe’s Gas Crunch Stems From Storage Shortage, Not LNG Scarcity
Europe’s gas problem isn’t a lack of LNG — it’s a lack of buffer, writes @seb_kennedy With storage below 32%, even hypothetical risks like Hormuz move prices fast. #TTF #LNG #EnergySecurity #GasMarkets #Geopolitics
Tariff Tensions Rise as Markets Await Inflation and Fed Signals
Trump's tariff drama intensifies while markets await key inflation data and Fed signals. The plot thickens on every front this week. 🟢 Open https://t.co/8tpXkyVt89
North Atlantic Aviation: Forward Bookings and Fares Are Down for Peak Summer 2026
Forward bookings and average fares for July 2026 transatlantic flights are down, signalling a softer peak summer than 2025. Visitor numbers from Western Europe to the United States remained below pre‑pandemic levels, with seven of the ten largest origin markets...
German Firms Decry China's Unfair, Destabilising Trade Practices
Reuters: "German businesses warned of what they called destabilising and unfair global business practices by China, accusing Beijing of driving overcapacity, massive subsidies, distortive foreign-exchange policies and politically motivated export controls. https://t.co/701kYKGi2T
97% of Chinese Megacities Now Have High‑speed Rail
SCMP: "High-speed rail services are already accessible in 97 per cent of Chinese cities with populations of more than 500,000, the State Council said in December." https://t.co/bD3P6HUata
China Weekly Wrap: Markets, Macro & Tech
The episode reviews the Asian market landscape during the week of Feb 15‑20, 2026, highlighting that Mainland China’s Lunar New Year closure shifted price discovery offshore, with earnings-driven rotation favoring North Asian hardware stocks. Korea led the earnings surge thanks...
China‑Africa Trade Hits $348B, Chinese Exports Surge
According to the China Global South Project, in 2025, trade between China and Africa reached $348 billion, a 17.7% increase from 2024. Chinese exports to Africa rose 25.8% to $225 billion, while African exports to China rose 5.4% to $123 billion. https://t.co/RFFOLMKVsP
Flexport Simulator Updated, Awaiting 15% Tariff Change
The Flexport Tariff Simulator is up to date with the latest changes to the tariff code. For now we only have a 10% section 122 in place, awaiting official CFR update on the 15% change Trump announced. We made the...
Geopolitical Risk and Supply Chain Diversification
A new study of Japanese multinational corporations shows that rising geopolitical risk is prompting firms to diversify supply chains away from China toward ASEAN economies, rather than fully relocating production. Using the Caldara‑Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk index and firm‑level trade and...
AI Boosts Productivity, Unemployment Fears Misguided
Looks like a model of AI induced unemployment but complete nonsense. there’s AI actually augmenting labor productivity and some separate labor demand shock (even though labor demand is derived demand from productivity)
India Pivots to Brazil with $20B Mining Deal
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: India just signed a $20B mining and minerals pact with Brazil to secure iron ore and fuel steel expansion. US tariff threats push India away, and it pivots towards the global south. https://t.co/JvDQ3RVGy6
Trade Data Gaps Between China and Central Asian States Point to Pervasive Smuggling
A joint review of Chinese, Kazakh and Kyrgyz customs data reveals massive discrepancies in reported trade values, with China claiming $48.7 billion in exports to Kazakhstan and $27.2 billion to Kyrgyzstan in 2025, while the two neighbours report only $34.1 billion and $5 billion...
Trump's New Tariff Aids China, Brazil; Future Uncertain
Trump. New tariff. Boost for China and Brazil. Current tariff is for 150 days. Then what will Trump do next as to imports and revenue? Supply chain unpredictability.
The People's Bank of China Set Its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) Today - No Change Is Expected.
The People’s Bank of China left its benchmark Loan Prime Rates unchanged at 3.00% for the one‑year and 3.50% for the five‑year tenor, marking the ninth straight month of stability. Market participants had widely priced in a hold, reflecting the...
OVERNIGHT STAY TAX COULD WEAKEN UK TOURISM COMPETITIVENESS
The World Travel & Tourism Council warns that England’s new overnight stay tax could slow tourism recovery, reduce visitor spending and jeopardise jobs. The proposal lets local authorities levy £2‑£10 per person or a percentage of room rates on hotels,...
Vanguard Says: International Stocks Could Beat the U.S. for Years
Vanguard’s 2026 outlook projects international equities delivering 4.9%‑6.9% average annual returns over the next decade, outpacing the 4%‑5% forecast for U.S. stocks. The Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS) has already outperformed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq‑100, rising 9% year‑to‑date and...
Core PPI Spikes, Fed Sees Hotter Inflation, Oil Rallies
January PPI lands Friday. Core PPI already printed +0.7% MoM vs 0.2% expected — biggest monthly jump since July 2025. NY Fed puts underlying PCE trend at 2.83% by December, up from 2.55% in September. WTI crude +15.6% YTD. Rapidan...
EU Names Azerbaijan a Cornerstone of Europe’s Post-Russia Energy Map
The European Union has designated Azerbaijan as a cornerstone of its post‑Russia energy strategy, pledging to double gas imports to 20 bcm per year by 2027 through the Southern Gas Corridor. Azerbaijan’s gas exports to Europe surged 60% to 12.9 bcm in...
What Will Trump’s Latest Sweeping Tariffs Mean for the World?
President Donald Trump announced a sweeping 15 percent tariff on all imports, following a recent 10 percent levy introduced after a Supreme Court ruling struck down much of his earlier tariff regime. The across‑the‑board duty removes sector exemptions, injecting fresh uncertainty into...
US Blocks Sea Salt Imports From South Korean Salt Farm over Forced Labor Concerns – by Kim Tong-Hyung (Associated Press...
The United States Customs and Border Protection issued a withhold‑release order blocking imports of sea‑salt from South Korea’s Taepyung farm, citing reasonable indications of forced labor. Taepyung, the nation’s largest salt producer, accounts for roughly 6% of South Korea’s total...
Alliances, Ukraine, and China’s Growing Challenge
At the Munich Security Conference, former Defense official Evelyn Farkas warned that the transatlantic alliance’s cohesion is under strain as European partners grow distrustful of U.S. commitments. She urged a clear reaffirmation of American support for NATO and called for...
World Bank Must Demand Accountability
World Bank’s poverty‑reduction mission is compromised by weak oversight in many developing nations, where borrowed funds are often diverted into election‑timed projects and opaque schemes. The article highlights how political opportunism inflates contracts, disguises debt as generosity, and undermines public...
Tech Revolutions Cycle: Bubbles, Crashes, Inclusive Deployment Needed
If you want to read a piece that lays out the best bull/base case scenario, you should go read “Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital” by Perez. The book argues that every technological advancement follows the same framework as it relates to...
White House Persists with Unpopular Tariffs Despite Tax Backlash
What's fascinating is that tariffs are deeply unpopular --- as tax increases often are -- and the White House doubles, triples down on them.
This Week’s Top Stories: Canadian Real Estate’s Hard Landing, Phone Bills Distort Inflation
Canadian home prices slipped 0.4% in January, pulling the national average back to February 2021 levels and pushing the sales‑to‑new‑listings ratio to a buyer‑dominated 36.4%. CIBC warns that while prices are below trend in Ontario and British Columbia, they remain...
AI Could Be the First Non‑displacing Productivity Wave
L: Productivity miracle 1.0 - autos (white) replace horses (orange) in 10 yrs; horses never recover R: Productivity miracle 2.0 - China replaces US manufacturing workers; US mfg workers down ~35% in 10 yrs Productivity miracle 3.0 - AI v. white-collar jobs;...
Tariff Refunds: Near Impossible, Importers Left Stuck
Interesting. Will getting tariff refunds be like getting blood from a stone? What will importers do?
India-France Tax Shift Threatens P-Note Trade
India is poised to amend its treaty with France, stripping French investors of the capital‑gains exemption for holdings under 10% and raising dividend withholding to 15% for those stakes. The change would also halve the dividend tax to 5% for...
Lagarde Warns US Tariffs Could Destabilize EU Balance
Lagarde says US tariff moves risk upsetting equilibrium with the EU https://t.co/ode7ZBLduy via @weberalexander https://t.co/HemjTQHk5r
India Delays Trade Pact Amid US Tariff Uncertainty
India postpones trip to finalize trade pact. Global uncertainty on what Trump will do after his 15% for 150 days action is done because his tariffs were deemed not legal. What is ahead for supply chains?
Courting Global Tariffs as US GDP Takes a Hit
The episode surveys a week of global economic turbulence, highlighting AI’s expanding role in the Australian job market, rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East, and mixed central‑bank signals across major economies. Dr. Blair Chapman notes a surge in AI‑specific...
Asia Confirmed as Global Manufacturing Hub, ILO Shows
Asia as global manufacturing hub, shown by the ILO. More sources featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/bpfQbXlbHK
AI Thrives While Economy Crumbles in 2028
JUNE 2028. The S&P is down 38% from its highs. Unemployment just printed 10.2%. Private credit is unraveling. Prime mortgages are cracking. AI didn’t disappoint. It exceeded every expectation. What happened? https://t.co/JzzwCrbJgS