Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
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Defense & Aerospace Report Podcast [Feb 22 ’26 Business Report]
The Defense & Aerospace Report podcast highlighted a Supreme Court ruling that struck down several of former President Trump’s tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Analysts discussed the fate of roughly $200 billion in tariff revenue and the administration’s plan to replace them with new duties under alternative statutes. The roundtable also covered major procurement moves, including India’s expanded Rafale order, Canada’s new National Defense Strategy, and a U.S. threat of retaliation if Europe pivots to domestic weapons. Additional topics were Northrop Grumman’s partnership with Embraer to market the KC‑390, Leonardo’s C‑27 production after Saudi orders, Airbus earnings challenges with Pratt & Whitney, and BAE Systems’ investor pressure.
DHS Funding Gap Pauses Global Entry, Sparks Airline Buy
Macro: DHS funding lapse prompted policy reversals. Key: TSA PreCheck remains; Global Entry paused. Risk: service uncertainty may boost travel volatility. Trade: buy select airline stocks. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Japanese Life Insurers Face $86B Bond Losses
⚠️WHAT IS HAPPENING IN JAPAN? The 4 largest Japanese life insurers, Nippon Life, Dai-ichi Life, Sumitomo Life, and Meiji Yasuda, had a combined ¥13.2 trillion ($86 billion) in unrealized losses on government bonds at the end of 2025. Losses have risen over...
The Maghreb’s New Architecture: Beyond the Myth of the Algerian Pillar
A U.S.-led meeting in Madrid on Feb. 8, 2026 signaled the formal end of Algeria’s long‑standing claim as the indispensable security pillar of the Maghreb. Washington is now backing a Tunis‑Rabat axis that promises energy sovereignty, a phosphate cartel and broader economic...
AI Not Needed to Prevent US Bankruptcy, Model Shows
Early invite to my network, as I am going live in an hour to debunk what Elon Musk says: The U.S. is 1000% heading for bankruptcy without AI. I ran the model. Then I ran it again with correct accounting. The doom loop...
Mexico's 0.8% Growth Lags US, Marks EM Failure
In 2024 and 2025, Mexico grew at an annualized pace of 0.8%, even as the US grew at an annualized pace of 2.3% in those two years. Mexico's growth stagnation, which - outside of COVID - has now lasted since...
India Pauses Its Trade Team Visit to Evaluate US Supreme Court Tariff Ruling
India has postponed its scheduled trade delegation visit to Washington after the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated the reciprocal tariffs imposed by President Trump. The court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act did not authorize the tariffs, prompting Trump...
Argentina's Dollar Peg Has Never Delivered Stability
For as long as I can remember, Argentina has tried to become credible and stable by pegging the Peso to the Dollar. The success rate of this strategy - in all the years it's been tried - is exactly ZERO....
DRC, Belgium, and KoBold Metals in Dispute Over Colonial Mineral Archives
A dispute has emerged between the Democratic Republic of Congo, Belgium, and U.S. firm KoBold Metals over access to colonial-era geological archives housed at Belgium’s AfricaMuseum. The DRC wants to partner with KoBold to digitize data on cobalt, lithium and...
Federal Reserve Born From Private Politicians' Secret Meeting
The Creature from Jekyll Island is a must read book. It helps you understand the creation of the federal reserve banking system in the states. The truth is that, The U.S. central banking system was conceived in private by a...
Economists Hide Real Risks of U.S. Bond Dumping
Everyone's worried about foreign countries dumping U.S. bonds, but here's what mainstream economists won't tell you about government finances. The link to the complete presentation is in the comments.
Lula Urges Equal Treatment Ahead of Trump Talks
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva used a New Delhi press conference to signal Brazil’s preference for a balanced, non‑confrontational relationship with the United States. By urging the Trump administration to treat all nations equally, he framed the upcoming Washington talks as a platform...
Strong US Data Now Weakens, Not Strengthens, the Dollar
The Dollar used to rally on strong data, but that's no longer true. Recent examples are strong payrolls on Feb 11 or hot core PCE inflation on Feb 20. We're in the early stages of a regime change for USD,...
Interview with Arigato Investor ありがとう投資家 04.02.2026
In this episode, The Macro Butler interviews the Arigato Investors to explore why gold remains a safe‑haven asset during market turbulence and how its appeal is evolving. They discuss the shifting financial centre of gravity toward Asia, highlighting Hong Kong and...
UN Agency Urges Investment to Boost Youth Employment
The UN Economic Commission for Africa warned that Africa’s massive youth cohort can become a global growth engine if investment is better linked to bankable projects. While capital exists, investors demand scale, security and market access, which the continent must...
EU-India FTA to Unlock Trade Growth, AI Collaboration and Resilient Supply Chains: Austrian Official
The European Union and India have reached a landmark free‑trade agreement that will slash tariffs on the vast majority of bilateral trade, covering 96.6% of EU exports to India and 99.5% of Indian exports to the EU. Austrian State Secretary...
Borderlands Mexico: Violent Cargo Theft Grips Mexican Truckers, Overhaul Report Finds
Overhaul’s 2025 Annual Cargo Theft Report shows that 82% of cargo theft incidents targeting Mexican truckers involved violence, with armed interceptions and driver assaults commonplace. While the central region remains the hotspot, the West’s share of thefts rose 7% in...
U.S. Sanctions Unintentionally Power Cuba’s Solar Independence
Cuba has been cut off from oil, and solar power is saving Cuba. The irony here is the U.S. is making Cuba actually energy independent, which is likely the opposite desired effect Trump is seeking to have.
US Supreme Court Ruling on Tariffs: Why Emkay Sees India as Beneficiary Amid Trump's Flip-Flops
The U.S. Supreme Court nullified President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, prompting the administration to replace them with a blanket 15% tariff under Section 122. This shift lowers the average U.S. tariff rate to about...
Oil Glut Myth Debunked: Sanctions Tighten Real Supply
The oil glut narrative is dying or dead A market rallying 18% YTD isn’t drowning in supply. Yes, barrels exist on paper But sanctions, disruptions, inventories & geopolitics mean they’re not available where prices are set. These views are from the @BloombergNRG article. I agree...
Indonesia Faces Record Share Sales to Meet Free-Float Goal
Indonesia must orchestrate a record‑size share sale to lift the free‑float of 267 listed firms to at least 15%, up from the current 7.5% floor. The Indonesia Stock Exchange estimates the required issuance will total about 187 trillion rupiah (approximately S$14 billion),...
Tour Operator Sets Aside $72m for Lodges Expansion
SafariCo Group is allocating $72 million to expand and refurbish its Tanzanian lodges, backed by a $50 million International Finance Corporation loan. The plan adds 184 rooms, pushing the portfolio beyond 1,000 keys across the Elewana, Explorer and Sopa brands. Tanzania’s tourism...
Gold, US Indices, Bitcoin: This Week's Key Trade
Weekly Market Analysis , Macro Update & Trade ideas on Gold , US indexes & Bitcoin https://youtu.be/HNcStxTfQSg?si=D3pxln2A4J1VbDYV
Iran War Risk Surge Threatens Oil Markets
🔴 IRAN WAR RISK IS ESCALATING FAST Military buildup. Failing diplomacy. Rising oil volatility. Subscribers have been tracking the escalation path and the market consequences before the headlines. Know what comes next. ⚠️Subscribe now on website⚠️ #Iran #Geopolitics #WarRisk #Oil #GlobalRisk
Europe in the Shadow of Hybrid War. What Does Russian Systemic Pressure Look Like?
SAB’s annual report warns that Russia now frames relations with the West as an existential conflict, deploying a systematic hybrid toolkit that blends military, informational, cyber, legal and economic levers. The Kremlin’s distorted threat perception fuels a perception spiral, making...
Questioning US Balance‑of‑Payments Deficit Under Section 122
So does the US have a balance of payments deficit for purposes of section 122 of the trade law (and thus the basis for imposing a 15% tariff). It is an interesting question 1/ many https://t.co/JidbJk37vw
Trump Trade Deals Uncertain, Investors May Have Misjudged
Were the trade deals with Trump approved by the Senate? Did the Supreme Court void them? What is Trump’s end game? Supply chain uncertainty reigns.
US Tariffs on India Reset to 15% After Supreme Court Ruling: How Did Duties Swing From 26% to 50% and...
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act cannot be used to impose sweeping global tariffs, forcing the Trump administration to abandon the IEEPA‑based duties on India. Hours later, President Trump invoked Section 122 of the Trade...
Discussing Economy, Trade, and Central Bank Independence
I had a good discussion with @MargBrennan of @FaceTheNation about the economy, trade, central bank independence and other topics. https://t.co/7S39jwcldt
Trump’s China Deal Unclear Amid Tariff Reversal Chaos
What is the standing of Trump’s China deal? Congressional approval? What is his end game after Liberation Day tariffs struck down? What circle of hell will supply chains and logistics be in?
Capitalising Africa's Youth Dividend
At the Africa Business Forum 2026 in Addis Ababa, leaders launched the Jobs Wall Commitment Tracker to record public and private sector job promises. The gathering emphasized that Africa’s youthful demographic demands risk‑tolerant, long‑term capital focused on research, innovation, and...
Trump’s Escalating Tariffs Threaten UK and Global Supply Chains
Is the UK the biggest loser after Trump’s tariffs are struck down? He will not stop at 15% he announced. That is only good for 150 days. Smoot-Hawley and up to 50% tariff seems more to his liking. Can Trump...
Xi Holds the Leverage as Trump’s Tariff Threats Backfire
When it comes to Trump's tariff threats on China, it's clear that chairman Xi holds all the cards. TRUMP’S TARIFFS = BACKFIRE. https://t.co/ACGdxKxjr0
India’s GDP Growth to Moderate to 7.2% in Q3FY26: ICRA
ICRA projects India’s year‑on‑year GDP growth to ease to 7.2% in Q3 FY 2025‑26, down from 8.2% in the prior quarter. The slowdown is driven by weaker services (+7.8% versus +9.2%) and agriculture (+3.0% versus +3.5%) growth, even as industrial output...
Erdogan's 2021 Governor Dismissal Triggers Endless Lira Decline
The last truly independent central bank Governor in Turkey was fired in March 2021. That sent the Lira into a devaluation spiral from which it's never recovered. It doesn't matter who the economic team is now. If Erdogan did this...
Discussing Economic Outlook Live on Face the Nation
Live from 10:30 ET: I’ll be speaking with Margaret Brennan on @FaceTheNation @CBSNews. We’ll discuss the economic outlook and other topics. If you are in the US, follow the interview https://t.co/6JMj9WbdTi https://t.co/1uPSzrclkX
Trump Now Wants to Impose 15% Tariff After Supreme Court Decision
President Donald Trump announced a new 15% tariff on imports, raising the rate from the 10% he mentioned a day earlier. The increase follows a Supreme Court ruling that invalidated his earlier reciprocal and fentanyl‑related tariffs. Trump said the tariffs...
Tariff Uncertainty Clouds Supply Chains After Court Ruling
What comes after the Supreme Court’s striking down Trump’s tariffs and his using Section 122 surcharges expire after 150 days? And the trade deals with tariffs that exceed 15%? It is all curiouser and curiouser for supply chains. And logistics?
Rethink Supply Chains for Shifting US‑China Trade Landscape
Global trade trap. US tantrums. China bravado. How should your supply chain and its logistics change to adapt to a new trade?
Bitcoin Eyes $175B in Refund Liquidity as Supreme Court Nukes Trump Tariffs
The U.S. Supreme Court on Feb. 20 ruled 6‑3 that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize President Trump’s tariff program, nullifying roughly $133.5 billion in collected duties and raising the total overhang to about $175‑$179 billion. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent...
Iran's Survival Shift Fuels Chaos Amid China Metal Competition
Teheran now believes it's marked for death, writes @ctindale Once survival replaces strategy, restraint evaporates & chaos becomes leverage Anyone who thinks this isn’t about oil—specifically balancing China’s grip on metals—simply isn’t paying attention #Geopolitics #Iran #Deterrence #EnergySecurity #PowerPolitics #Risk #MiddleEast #StrategicStability
Western Media Misleads: Ukraine, Not Russia, Faces Crisis
Forget the Western propaganda about the economies of Russia and Ukraine. Contrary to Western media, Russia is not about ready to collapse. It's Ukraine that is in trouble. Don't forget Hanke's 95% Rule: 95% of what you read in the press is either wrong...
Iran Polymarket & Fed Odds
Polymarket’s prediction market shows a noticeable rise in the odds of a U.S. strike on Iran, signaling heightened geopolitical risk. At the same time, gold remains unusually flat, showing little enthusiasm despite the tension, while oil prices are edging higher....
Supreme Court Ruling Unlocks Government Tariff Refunds
Here's almost everything I know about tariffs in light of yesterday's Supreme Court ruling. Watch til the end to learn how to get your company's refund from the government. https://t.co/GFmQbceVox
Trump Uses Iran Threat as Energy Leverage, Not War
War with Iran & energy dominance are unrelated IMO @AsimRiaz1978 Trump knows an Iran strike risks an oil spike & voter blowback at the pump. That's why I think the buildup & a strike are coercive leverage, not a plan...
Petro's Policies Are Decimating Colombia's Natural Gas Industry
Colombia’s proven natural‑gas reserves have slumped to just over two trillion cubic feet, giving the country less than six years of production life. President Gustavo Petro’s policies—halting new exploration contracts and raising extractive taxes—have sharply curbed foreign investment and accelerated...
India Skips One‑Sided US Deal, Outpaces Indonesia
Thursday, Indonesia’s Pres. Prabowo signed a one-sided US-Indonesia trade deal. Indonesia was slammed with a 19% tariff, while nearly all IDN tariffs on the US were eliminated. In contrast, P.M. Modi has wisely not signed a U.S.–India deal. INDIA LEAVES INDONESIA IN...
Sachs: Trump's Tariffs Are Taxes on Americans, Not Aid
Distinguished Columbia Prof. Jeff Sachs on Trump’s tariffs: “Trump is charging taxes on Americans. [Yet] he fantasizes that [he's charging taxes on] other countries… and he somehow believes this is helping the US economy.” https://t.co/iWEXdB8QFT
Trump on the Supreme Court's Tariff Decision
In this episode, the host reviews President Donald Trump's reaction to the Supreme Court's ruling that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not permit tariff impositions. Trump lambasts the justices he deems disloyal, praises Justices Thomas, Alito, and Kavanaugh...
Admin Raises Section 122 Tariff
New tariffs levied - twice in less than 24 hours. Now Section 122 used to levy 15% across the board instead of 10%. That gets the effective tariff rate closer to what it was before the ruling by the Supreme...