Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Sweeping Tariffs Gone but Trump's 10% Global Tariffs On. What to Expect From Markets on Monday?
The U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s sweeping Section 232 tariffs, removing the 18% duty on many Indian exports. Hours later Trump announced a 10% global tariff on all imports, effective immediately. Indian exporters in gems, textiles, pharma and auto see a sentiment boost, though the new levy still applies. Wall Street closed higher, reflecting optimism tempered by the fresh global tariff.
Supreme Court Says IEEPA Can't Authorize Presidential Tariffs
The Supreme Court Ruling In a 6–3 decision (Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump), the Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977 does not give the President the authority to impose tariffs.
Interview with Andrew Maguire of Kinesis
In this episode, Alasdair Macleod and Andrew Maguire of Kinesis dissect the ongoing silver squeeze, highlighting how massive short positions in China and robust physical demand are forcing paper markets to the brink. They explain the eastward shift of price...
The Rail Ahead: As High-Speed Lines Saturate China, How Far Can Their Global Reach Extend?
China’s railway giants are turning outward as domestic high‑speed lines saturate, seeking overseas contracts in Southeast and Central Asia. Projects already under way include Thailand’s 610 km line, Malaysia’s 665 km east‑west railway, and Indonesia’s Jakarta‑Bandung service that has moved 12 million passengers....
Russia Weakened but Still Dangerous After the Ukraine War
The Ukraine war has exposed Russia’s structural vulnerabilities, including demographic decline, waning energy leverage over Europe, and growing reliance on China. Simultaneously, Moscow has adapted its military doctrine, emphasizing drones, electronic warfare, and attritional tactics, while sanctions have not collapsed...
Gold Reclaims $5,100 Amid Geopolitical and Rate‑Cut Pressures
GOLD ( XAUUSD ) : 5100 Has Been Reclaimed. Exactly as shared ahead of time. Technical break of market structure , Rising Geopolitical concerns , Tariffs uncertainty , Stagflation concerns , Rate cuts pricing = Higher Gold.
British Chamber Welcomes Easing of Interest Rates
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas trimmed its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, marking a cumulative 225‑basis‑point reduction since August 2024. The British Chamber of Commerce Philippines welcomed the move, arguing it will help revive economic growth and...
From Courtroom to Capital Markets: Why US Tariff Instability Matters
The Supreme Court narrowed presidential tariff authority, prompting the administration to rely on alternative statutes and refusing refunds for collected duties. This creates a new layer of substitution and retroactivity risk that markets now price into trade‑policy expectations. For capital‑intensive...
Quote of the Day: ‘Benefits of Tariffs Are…’ — What Milton Friedman Said on Protectionism
Milton Friedman’s 1980 warning that tariffs show visible benefits but hide widespread costs resonates amid recent US‑China trade frictions, where higher import duties have pushed up consumer prices and strained global supply chains. At the same time, India and Brazil...
Prioritize Understanding Over Constant Market Openings
We should stop asking for stock markets to be open for every economic announcement so that traders can hedge their risks. Imagine if our market was open when these new tariffs were announced and old ones scapped- 12 hours later people...
RBI Likely to Go for a Prolonged Policy Rate Pause: ICICI Bank Report
The Reserve Bank of India kept its policy repo rate steady at 5.25% on February 6, signalling a neutral stance. ICICI Bank Global Markets expects this will translate into a prolonged pause through 2026‑27 as core inflation stays benign and oil‑price...
US Does Not Want Anyone Buying Russian Oil, Says Ambassador Sergio Gor
US Ambassador Sergio Gor told reporters in New Delhi that Washington does not want any country buying Russian oil as part of its effort to end the Ukraine war. He praised India’s recent diversification of crude supplies but reiterated the...
US: Landmark Supreme Court Decision Holds IEEPA Tariffs Invalid
On February 20, 2026 the U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6‑3 that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not give the President authority to impose tariffs, invalidating the IEEPA tariffs enacted by President Trump. The majority applied the major questions...
Weekly Recap (2/20/2026)
The episode reviews the week’s market data and focuses on the Supreme Court’s decision that President Trump cannot use the Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs, prompting him to invoke Section 122 for a temporary 10% tariff that expires...
India Can Freely Import Russian Oil After Tariff Ruling
Re. the US SC tariff decision: As IEEPA was also the basis for the 25% addl punitive tariffs Trump imposed on India for buying Russian oil, it no longer holds. While Trump scrapped those tariffs Feb 6 under an interim...
Gold and Silver Surge Amid Iran Tensions, CNY Break Ends
Gold back over $5100 USD and Silver over $84 USD. We have a potential Iran conflict, and the end of the CNY break next week. https://t.co/Eac6sG80np
Historic Supreme Court Decision Ends Trump’s Tariffs
The U.S. Supreme Court issued a 6‑3 ruling on February 20, 2026, striking down President Trump’s sweeping global tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The decision, authored by Chief Justice John Roberts, holds that the Constitution reserves...
US‑Led Regime Change Leaves Libya with 58.8% Inflation
#LibyaWatch🇱🇾: Thanks to US-led regime change operations in 2011, Libya is a failed state. Today, I measure Libya’s inflation at 58.8%/yr. LIBYA’S ECONOMY = IN THE TANK. https://t.co/5JVou6TFc3
IEEPA Cuts Trump Tariffs, Boost
🎩 ✍️ @nytimes 1. IEEPA = 1/4 of Trumpian tariffs; 2. Rates were coming down; exemptions expanding = Affordability TACO under way since summer 2025 https://t.co/OpllUV99nH
Supreme Court Tariff Ruling in Learning Resources, Inc. V. Trump: What Corporate Tax and Trade Teams Need to Know
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6‑3 that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not give the President authority to impose tariffs, invalidating both the targeted fentanyl duties and broader reciprocal tariffs. The decision could unlock up to $175 billion in...
Supreme Court Threatens Trump-Era Trade Deals Under IEEPA
Are Trumpian trade deals valid❓ ✍️ @nytimes”The fate of those deals is in doubt now with the Supreme Court decision, because many of the deals were premised on tariff rates under the IEEPA law” https://t.co/ltr9FW5Tl4
Sanctions Cripple Cuba's Grid, Wealth Fuels Private Power
Sanctions + fuel shortages broke the Cuban grid Those with dollars self-electrify while the rest sit in the dark. Energy desperation risks deepening inequality while the broader economy deteriorates. https://t.co/xOjVSt4Eep #EnergyCrisis #Cuba #Sanctions #Solar #GridFailure
Supreme Court Trump Tariff Decision Impact: What to Expect as Fight for Billions in Refunds Begins
The U.S. Supreme Court declared President Trump’s IEEPA‑based tariffs illegal, opening the door to massive refund claims. Estimates suggest importers could seek as much as $175 billion in reimbursements, though the Court did not specify how refunds will be administered. Treasury,...
Japan's Low Inflation Reflects Weak Money Supply Growth
Japan’s inflation rate comes in at 1.53%/yr in January, BELOW its 2%/yr target. JP’s money supply (M2) is growing at 1.56%/yr, WELL BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of~6.07%/yr, a rate consistent with JP’s 2%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY...
Section 122 Exemptions Enable Net Tariff Reduction
Important. Net effect of striking IEEPA/ reciprocal tariffs and doing the 122 with similar product exemptions should be a tariff reduction.
Trump Threatens 'Global' Tariff on Aluminum Scrap
President Donald Trump signaled a possible 10% tariff on U.S. aluminum scrap imports after the Supreme Court struck down his earlier country‑specific duties. He indicated the executive order would invoke Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, which permits duties...
US Sells Venezuelan Oil to India, Surprising Twist
Today, the US announced a plan to sell Venezuelan oil to India. Note who’s selling Venezuela’s oil to India. It’s Uncle Sam. AMAZING. https://t.co/SLitquccox
IEEPA Tariff Invalidated Threatens Existing Trade Deal Framework
JPMORGAN: “.. many trade deals negotiated to date have relied on IEEPA tariffs and have not yet been formalized as trade agreements. With the legal basis for these tariffs now invalidated, the fate of these deals is in question. These...
Europe Values Digital Euro at €1.3B Amid ECB Leadership Change Narrative Increase
The European Central Bank has earmarked €1.3 billion for the digital euro’s development and expects annual operating costs of €320 million from 2029. A pilot phase will begin with a call for expressions of interest in March 2026, running six weeks, followed by...
China’s Growth Needs Domestic Consumption, Not Exports
China’s economy has held up remarkably well against shocks like U.S. tariffs but continued resilience will need consumption to drive growth, rather than external demand, according to a report by the International Monetary Fund. @Tracyyyqu https://t.co/7pUUCZaEr2
SCOTUS Blocks Trump's Emergency Tariffs, Curbing Executive Overreach
SCOTUS just ruled Trump can’t use emergency powers to impose sweeping tariffs. Why? The Constitution gives tariff power to Congress, and IEEPA never authorized a president to tax imports. The Court rejected the power grab and the economic overreach. It’s...
Hutchison Makes Overtures to Panama for Negotiations Over Terminal Ops
Hong Kong‑based CK Hutchison has formally asked Panama to reopen talks on the concession to operate the Balboa and Cristóbal terminals that flank the Panama Canal. The request follows a Panama Supreme Court ruling that declared the law granting the...
Supply Chains Brace for Renewed Turbulence as Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump Tariffs
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6‑3 that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not give the president authority to impose the sweeping tariffs enacted under the Trump administration, effectively nullifying roughly $175 billion in duties. Ports and logistics firms are...
New Econ on Top for the Week, Curve Steeper Friday on Tariffs (E251)
DoubleLine strategists Ryan Kimmel and Mark Kimbrough highlighted a sector rotation this week, with communications services, financials and industrials gaining while traditional “old economy” sectors such as utilities and real estate fell. In fixed income, investment‑grade yields edged higher, but...
Access to Credit and Employment Growth for MSMEs: Evidence From Latin America and the Caribbean
A new IDB Invest technical note analyzes 21,696 MSMEs across 30 Latin American and Caribbean economies, linking credit access to employment growth. The study finds that an extra US$1 million in financing generates roughly four permanent jobs per year. Effects vary:...
China’s Defense Surplus Funding Threatens US Corporate Influence
Sad to watch so many analysts and economists argue that it is a "win" to allow China to continue to deploy surpluses earned from making a significant % of the US military for us 👇into US equity stakes which China...
Dollar Stays King, No Signs of Dethronement
My take on the US dollar: "The DOLLAR IS KING, and it's going to REMAIN KING. It's hard to knock a king off his throne." https://t.co/txOJ9KZ8Qw
Traders Brace for Trump's New Tariff Plan, Possible Iran Attack and Nvidia Earnings
Wall Street is bracing for President Donald Trump’s announcement of a new 10% global tariff after the Supreme Court ruled his earlier IEEPA tariffs unlawful. The decision could spark lengthy refund litigation for importers and may give the Federal Reserve...
Korea Call Delivers Near‑double EWY Gains Since August
Since our bullish call on Korea last August… EWY +99.27% SPY +7.78% Money counting time. https://t.co/EKTw9HANNh
Supreme Court Overturns Trump's Tariffs, Warning of Ongoing Trade Battles
Trump's tariffs COST US BUSINESSES BILLIONS. Fortunately, today, the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s tariffs. But that won’t be the last act in the TARIFF TRAGEDY. https://t.co/BaPcQ0duJJ
Five Forces that May Reshape the African Continent in 2026
The African Union’s February summit highlighted a packed 2026 election calendar, with more than a dozen nations heading to the polls, from Uganda and Benin to Ethiopia and South Sudan. Parallel security concerns dominate the agenda, as the DRC’s fragile...
Investors Shift to Staples Amid Mag‑7 CAP‑Ex Weakness
In my weekly markets video for clients, I highlighted how investors have gone from “7 to Staples”. Usually, growing macro risks lead to Staples leadership. This time macro isn’t the issue, but it could be due to Mag 7’s idiosyncratic...
Argentina's 32% Inflation Fueled by Runaway Money Growth
Argentina’s inflation comes in at a RED HOT 32.4%/yr. NO SURPRISE. AR’s money supply (M3) is growing at 38.7%/yr. That's WELL ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 9.8%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its 5%/yr inflation target. INFLATION = PRES. MILEI'S ACHILLES HEEL....
Recommended Weekend Reads
This episode curates a set of recent reports on three major themes: U.S. trade policy after the Supreme Court blocked President Trump's use of the IEEPA, escalating U.S.-Iran military tensions and Iran’s domestic challenges, and broader geoeconomic issues such as...
Section 122 Tariffs Approaching Rapidly: Key Points
A couple of points on Section 122 tariffs -- as they seem to be coming quickly 1/ https://t.co/s9LF3ZMZ1q
IMF's 2025 Report Flawed Using Outdated
This illustrates the problems with the IMF's 2025 external sector report -- for one, it uses the 2024 current account surplus as its measure, and a lot has changed since then ... 1/2 https://t.co/uBaXFvSXhW
S&P 500 Rises, Dow Gains 200 Points After Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump Emergency Tariffs: Live Updates
The U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s emergency tariffs, sending the S&P 500 up 0.69% to 6,909 and the Dow up 230 points. The decision lifted a macro headwind for import‑dependent consumer‑discretionary firms, with Nike, Yeti and SharkNinja posting gains....
BMO Raises Gold Forecast to $6,500, Bull Peaks $6‑7k
The Bank of Montreal has followed my lead. It just UPGRADED its gold price forecast to $6,500/oz by year's end. I predict the GOLD BULL will PEAK at $6,000-$7,000/oz. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/69wgiprOrt
Canada Fears SCOTUS Loss Could Trigger Harsher Trump Tariffs
Canadian officials had told me they were concerned a SCOTUS loss might enable Trump to impose harsher tariffs on Canada, which currently has the lowest effective tariff rate together w Mexico. Whether they told the Trump Admin this, as the president...
Silver Near 10‑Month Streak Amid $2T Liquidations
$2 trillion in forced liquidation blamed on chinese traders, margin hikes & Warsh pick, silver is 33 cents away from completing its 10th consecutive monthly candle (if it were monthend) #forex #XAUUSD #XAGUSD https://t.co/SOjpd04sAO