Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Kyrgyzstan’s Energy Emergency Opens the Door to Russian Nuclear Influence
Facing chronic electricity shortages due to over‑reliance on hydropower, Kyrgyzstan is considering a Russian‑built small modular reactor (SMR). President Putin pledged Moscow’s readiness to construct the plant, which could deliver 110‑440 MW of baseload power. The deal would require deep regulatory, financial and technological integration with Russia, raising concerns about long‑term strategic dependence. Analysts warn the project could cement Russian influence in Central Asia while reshaping regional water‑energy dynamics.
Now That Trump's Tariffs Have Been Ruled Illegal, Will Tech Prices Lower?
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6‑3 that most Trump‑era tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were unlawful, effectively eliminating the 25 % flat tariffs on goods from Canada, China and Mexico while leaving steel and aluminum duties intact....
World Bank Chief's Role on Trump-Led Board of Peace Prompts Questions
World Bank President Ajay Banga joined President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza reconstruction, igniting debate over the lender’s political neutrality. Critics warn his involvement could blur the Bank’s traditionally apolitical stance, while supporters argue his presence may temper...
NATO Needs to Define the Substance of Its 1.5 Percent Pledge
At the 2025 NATO Summit in The Hague, allies committed to raising defense‑related spending to 1.5 percent of GDP by 2030, adding roughly $825 billion across the Alliance. The communiqué, however, offers no clear definition of which expenditures count toward this figure,...
US Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump’s Tariffs: Early Analysis From Chatham House Experts
The U.S. Supreme Court issued a 6‑3 decision striking down President Donald Trump’s global tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, finding the administration exceeded its authority. The ruling blocks the baseline 10% "Liberation Day" tariff and related...
Accounting Rules Reveal Shutdown’s Massive Real GDP Loss
A fun(?) 🧵 on how nerdy government accounting rules had a big impact on Q4 GDP. And how they reflect how wasteful the 43-day government shutdown was. TL;DR: Small reduction in nominal federal spending in Q4. But a big decline in...
Supreme
Here is my write up of all the data and the Supreme Court ruling on tariff legality. https://kpmg.com/us/en/articles/2026/december-2025-pce-and-gdp.html
Tariff Slapdown: What the Markets Say
The U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s IEEPA tariffs, sending U.S. equities up about 0.7% and lifting the 10‑year Treasury yield back to roughly 4.10%. The decision removes a source of tariff‑derived revenue, reviving fiscal‑deficit concerns and creating upside...
First Quantum Pegs Argentina Copper Mine’s Value at $5.9B
First Quantum Minerals announced that its Taca Taca copper‑gold project in northwest Argentina now carries an after‑tax net present value of $5.92 billion and a 19.3% internal rate of return, more than double the 2021 estimate. Updated reserves rose 13%, adding...
Ocean Carrier On-Time Arrivals Tumbled in January: Xeneta
Ocean carrier schedule reliability plunged in January 2026 as congestion at Asian hubs and severe North Atlantic weather disrupted liner networks. Rate‑benchmarking platform Xeneta reports a sharp decline in on‑time arrivals across most carriers, with only non‑alliance services showing modest...
Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump’s IEEPA Tariffs: What Procurement Leaders Must Do Next
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6‑3 that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize the president to impose broad tariffs, overturning Trump’s IEEPA tariff regime. The decision opens a path for importers to seek refunds, but claims must...
Supreme Court Strikes Down Tariffs
The Supreme Court, in a 6‑3 ruling, invalidated the sweeping tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump, finding that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not grant the president authority to levy tariffs. The justices applied the major...
NRF Responds to Tariff Ruling by the Supreme Court
The U.S. Supreme Court issued a ruling limiting the Trump administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs, providing clearer legal boundaries for trade measures. The National Retail Federation welcomed the decision, saying it delivers much‑needed...
Trump to Impose 10% Global Tariff After Supreme Court Rebuke
President Donald Trump announced a 10% global tariff lasting 150 days, invoking Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act after the Supreme Court struck down his broader IEEPA‑based duties. The new measure can be applied to any country facing “large and...
Inflation‑Adjusted Dollar Down 10% Yet Remains Strong
The inflation adjusted dollar is only down ~ 10% v its q4 2024 high (it was driven up by the initial Trump trade). The inflation adjusted dollar is more or less back where it was in 2023 and...
Jobless Boom Creates a Fire‑and‑ice Economy Despite Slowing Growth
My write up coming soon of GDP, inflation, employment and the Supreme court ruling IEEPA tariffs illegal. Curb your enthusiasm. Refunds are not guaranteed & the logistics to quote the Court are a “mess.” Moreover, the admiration has other levers to...
Supreme Court Strikes Down Most Trump Tariffs
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6‑3 that the president lacks authority to impose broad tariffs without congressional approval, striking down the 10% baseline tariffs Trump enacted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The decision leaves intact steel and aluminum...
Supreme Court Strikes Down Majority of Trump’s Tariffs
The U.S. Supreme Court issued a 6‑3 ruling that President Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, invalidating most of the administration’s reciprocal tariffs. The decision overturns the 34% tariff on China and the 10% baseline...
Markets Cheer ₹80,000-Crore Divestment Target
The Indian government has set an ₹80,000‑crore dis‑investment target for the next fiscal, sparking a rally in public‑sector undertaking (PSU) stocks and lifting equity markets. The plan combines strategic stake sales and asset monetisation to generate fiscal inflows while unlocking...
Yield Curve Inverted 43 Months, Recession Still Unseen
The yield curve inverted 43 mos ago ... still no recession Nearly everyone told us a recession was coming. If you didn't, you were mocked and told it was Quad Four People say the NFC winning the Super Bowl being good for...
How CPOs Can Protect Their Supply Chains Against Tariff Risk—Without Overreacting
Chief Procurement Officers (CPOs) are shifting from headline tariff figures to category‑level exposure mapping, allowing precise risk assessment and targeted mitigation. By integrating total cost of ownership into tariff response, they avoid costly over‑reactions and focus on long‑term spend efficiency....
Supreme Court Blocks Key Tariff Components, Administration Must Seek Alternatives
Update on US tariffs: The Supreme Court has ruled 6-3 against components of the administration's tariff policy. The ball is now in the administration’s court—specifically the willingness and ability to impose tariffs under alternative legal authorities. #economy #tariffs #markets
Court Blocks Trump Tariffs, Military Eyes Iran: Brace for Volatility
US Supreme Court Ruling Against Trump Tariffs + US Military preparing for an operation in Iran. Well , that's going to be a crazy end to the week. Embrace yourself for volatility.
Pakistan’s New Special Security Unit Underscores China’s Hold on the Country
Pakistan announced a dedicated special security unit in January 2026 to protect Chinese citizens and projects, a move prompted by a spike in militant attacks on Chinese interests. The unit signals Islamabad’s desperation to retain China’s $62 billion investment amid deteriorating...
Kroenig Interviewed on CBS News on US Strategy in Iran and the Board of Peace
Atlantic Council senior director Matthew Kroenig appeared on CBS News on February 19 to discuss Washington’s options regarding a potential strike on Iran. He warned that a rushed military action could destabilize the region and emphasized the need for a...
Capital Shifts From Tech to Real Assets Amid Deglobalization
This is what happens when export $ recycling slows in a world that is deglobalizing. I.E. When the movement from Capital to Labor shifts, the flow of equity flow moves from digital to real things, from software to hardware, trade...
Surging Oil Tanker Rates Tipped to Go Even Higher
Oil supertanker charter rates have surged, with VLCC earnings on the Middle East‑to‑China lane reaching $151,208 per day, the highest since 2020. The spike is driven by heightened geopolitical risk from a potential US‑Iran conflict and a tightening supply of available...
Inflation’s Back In America. Not That It Ever Left
The Federal Reserve’s January FOMC minutes confirm that inflation remains entrenched in the United States, contrary to earlier optimism. Core consumer‑price index rose 0.3% month‑over‑month, keeping annual inflation above the Fed’s 2% target. The minutes show policymakers acknowledging persistent price...
US Q4 Growth Stalls at 1.4% Amid Shutdown
The US econ grew less than expected in the fourth quarter, weighed down by a record-long govt shutdown, weaker consumer spending, and softer trade. GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 1.4% in Q4, down sharply from 4.4% in Q3....
Quarterly Services Survey
The U.S. Census Bureau announced an updated release calendar to address a recent lapse in federal funding, postponing the next Quarterly Services Survey (QSS) revisions and benchmark releases. The delay affects historical corrections, new seasonal factors, and data from the...
How North Korea Is Ranking Southeast Asian Countries
North Korea is stratifying its diplomatic outreach in Southeast Asia, placing Vietnam and Laos at the top tier because of entrenched party‑to‑party links, while Indonesia sits in a middle tier with limited ideological affinity. Malaysia’s relations were severed in 2021...
How Trump and Erdoğan Can Turn US LNG Energy Dominance Into Black Sea Stability
U.S. President Donald Trump is positioning a three‑party deal with Turkey and Ukraine at the June NATO summit to allow large‑scale U.S. LNG shipments through the Bosporus. Current Turkish regulations bar vessels over 200 m, preventing most U.S. LNG carriers from...
Adjusted Q4 GDP Shows Stronger Growth, Q1 Rebound Expected
Real GDP rose at a 1.4% annual rate in Q4. But the "truth" is better because shutdown-induced real Federal spending cut subtracted 1.15pp. Expect much of that to be added back in Q1. Consumer spending (+2.4%) and business fixed investment (+3.7%)...
IEEPA Threat Raises Tariff Ceiling, Shifts Negotiation Dynamics
While 15% is close to what many countries ended up negotiating with Trump, he invoked IEEPA to threaten much higher rates, providing powerful leverage. If 15% is an effective ceiling (outside 301/232 actions), that changes the bargaining dynamic.
NYT’s SCOTUS Tariff Blog Offers Live Global Coverage
The @nytimes #SCOTUS tariff decision blog is a thing to behold. Reporting and graphics from around the world --including, of course, Canada. Head over there for your live updates: https://t.co/fO09GrdVlu
Xi's Consolidation Will Prompt China to Seek Cheaper Imports
Once Xi shores up his political base at home, I expect China to go back to buying cheaper commodities elsewhere, as the U.S. is not the low-cost producer of grain and oilseeds. #oatt
US Has 12‑18‑month Window to Sell Commodities to China
The United States has a window of opportunity to sell commodities to China over the next 12 - 18 months while President Xi tries to shore up his support at home, while seeking favorable access to the U.S. consumer market...
China Pays Premium for US Grain to Leverage Trump
Only China had put retaliatory tariffs on U.S. grain and oilseeds, and China is now buying U.S. commodities at a higher prices than the alternatives (without the tariffs) to get more favorable treatment from Trump on other issues. #oatt
Expert Questions Reports of China, Russia Arming Iran
Geopolitics expert Alexander Mercouris on Chinese and Russian aid to Iran: “There are all kinds of rumors and reports ... that Iran is receiving important military aid from China and from Russia as it prepares for the conflict with the US.”...
IEEPA Tariff Ruling Limits Trump’s Broad Tariff Options
The Trump administration is sure to use other authorities (122 maybe, 232, 301) to raise tariffs now that the court has struck down the IEEPA tariffs. But striking down IEEPA still matters, particularly for China/other countries that aren't heavily hit by...
Geopolitical Shocks Spark Volatility,
With tensions high around Iran, here's an updated table of major geopolitical events and how the stock market did after. Yes, some of them definitely caused volatility, but the longer-term median returns are fairly normal. https://t.co/477EvHtgAn
Venezuela's Offshore Gas Stuck Under US Sanctions
Venezuela sits on vast offshore natural gas reserves that could be developed quickly. But NOTHING will happen as long as US sanctions are imposed on Venezuela. It's time to LIFT SANCTIONS. https://t.co/RrlrOxXGDy
Trump 2.0 Boosts Banks, Revives Citi’s Fortunes
We don’t talk about banks much any more, but Trump 2.0 has been good to them, notably Citi the principal casualty of 2008. More on this and other fascinating topics in the Chartbook Top links today. https://t.co/saPWxJgDju
Dollar Collapse Imminent; Diversify with Gold, Crypto, Land, Guns
We're fucked. Buy gold. Buy bitcoin. Buy land. Buy guns and ammo. The dollar is toast.
Falling CPI‑PCE Spread Signals Declining Inflation, Defying Q4 GDP
When the CPI-PCE spread heads lower (the spread is cyclical), it is because inflation is going lower. CPI is what matters.. End of discussion The economy is currently doing the opposite of that Q4 GDP report https://t.co/xBUcAxE1EP
Supreme Court Destroys Trump Tariffs, Supply Chains Reset
With the Supreme Court striking down Trump’s tariffs, how will supply chains and logistics reset?
SCOTUS Issues 6-3 Ruling Against Administration on Tariffs
1/ We have the #tariffs opinion from #SCOTUS. Bottom line: a 6-3 loss for the administration. LINK to opinion: https://t.co/ITOB5aymTt
Conservatives Embrace Carbon
Very interesting that Thomas, Alito, and Kav would sign up for carbon border adjustments under the President's emergency authority. Key question is whether the liberal wing can find space between tariffs and carbon border adjustments. https://t.co/TyTuDsECLC
Yield Curve Ste
USTs for now reacting to the loss of tariff revenue, but it remains to be seen how this plays out. Curve steepening https://t.co/ZMjLP2vbxi
U.S. Debt Surge Demands Immediate Fiscal Brake
While the U.S. private sector repaired its balance sheet after 2008, the government did not. Gov’t debt to GDP ratio has climbed from 40% in 2007 to almost 110% today. THE U.S. NEEDS A DEBT BRAKE. UNSUSTAINABLE DEBT = FISCAL CRISIS. https://t.co/38NJYDyJgP