Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
How Trump and Erdoğan Can Turn US LNG Energy Dominance Into Black Sea Stability
U.S. President Donald Trump is positioning a three‑party deal with Turkey and Ukraine at the June NATO summit to allow large‑scale U.S. LNG shipments through the Bosporus. Current Turkish regulations bar vessels over 200 m, preventing most U.S. LNG carriers from reaching the Black Sea. By unlocking this route, Washington could supply Ukraine’s 32 bcm gas storage, bolster its energy resilience, and create a U.S.‑protected maritime corridor that pressures Russia’s war‑financing. Turkey would gain lucrative LNG infrastructure contracts, turning a political hurdle into a strategic asset.
Adjusted Q4 GDP Shows Stronger Growth, Q1 Rebound Expected
Real GDP rose at a 1.4% annual rate in Q4. But the "truth" is better because shutdown-induced real Federal spending cut subtracted 1.15pp. Expect much of that to be added back in Q1. Consumer spending (+2.4%) and business fixed investment (+3.7%)...
Australia and Timor-Leste: A New Partnership for a New Era
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Timor‑Leste Prime Minister Xanana Gusmão signed the Parseria Foun ba Era Foun declaration, establishing a new partnership built on three pillars – peace and regional integration, prosperity and resilience, and people‑to‑people links. The accord expands cooperation in security,...
Weak US Data, Traders Brace for Geopolitical Risk
US GDP, PCE comes in weaker, why no market reaction? Stocks remain lower. Gold is pushing higher. The dollar remains firm. Problem is - Traders are pricing in risk. With growing fears of a potential conflict over the weekend, positions are being...
Core PCE Inflation Ends Year Elevated, Near 3%
A strong finish to the year for core PCE inflation. And not "strong" in a good way. Annual growth rates. 1 month: 4.3% 3 months: 3.1% 6 months: 2.9% 12 months: 3.0%
To Bridge the Transatlantic Productivity Divide, Europe Needs Structural Reforms—And AI
Europe’s productivity lags far behind the United States, with EU real‑GDP growth averaging 1.3% since 2000 versus 2.4% in the US. The gap is driven by weak diffusion of IT and AI advances, which account for 25% of US growth...
Historic Uncertainty Spurs Opportunities in AI and Energy Stocks
Thoughts? The World Uncertainty Index has surged to historic levels—exceeding Iraq War, COVID, and 9/11—and identify five stocks positioned to perform well under these geopolitical conditions: Palantir (AI battlefield intelligence), ExxonMobil and Cameco/CCJ (energy security), and NVIDIA (AI defense technology),...
Where Do India and Pakistan Stand in Kazakhstan’s Southward Connectivity Push?
Kazakhstan is accelerating a southward connectivity push to secure Arabian Sea access, reducing reliance on Iran’s Chabahar and Bandar Abbas ports. President Tokayev’s recent visit to Islamabad underscored a partnership focused on the Kazakhstan‑Turkmenistan‑Afghanistan‑Pakistan (KTAP) rail corridor and a broader...
Government Dysfunction Torpedoes US Economic Growth
The U.S. economy grew at a 1.4% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2025, roughly half of analysts' expectations. This marks a sharp deceleration from the 4.4% surge recorded in the preceding quarter and is the slowest expansion since...
Retail Sales Decrease in December: Statistics Canada
Retail sales in Canada slipped 0.4% to $70 billion in December, marking the first monthly decline of the year. The drop was driven by a 1.6% fall in motor vehicle and parts dealers, while gasoline stations and fuel vendors posted a...
Jim Cramer's Top 10 Things to Watch in the Stock Market Friday
Jim Cramer highlighted ten market catalysts for Friday, Feb 20, ranging from macro data to individual stocks. Weak Q4 GDP growth at 1.4% pushed futures lower, while Texas Roadhouse rallied over 3% on a strong Q1 outlook. GE Aerospace received a...
‘Targeted Injection of Capacity’ Into Vietnam, Thailand Reshapes Ocean Networks
Ocean Alliance is injecting targeted capacity into Vietnam and Thailand in its Day 10 network update, turning ports like Haiphong and Laem Chabang into core deep‑sea origins. The shift adds four trans‑Pacific services to Haiphong and doubles West‑Coast sailings from Laem Chabang, while...
Copper: Imminent Supercycle or Mostly Hype?
In this episode, Doomberg examines the recent surge of interest in copper, dissecting whether the metal is on the brink of a genuine supercycle driven by supply constraints and booming demand, or if the hype is largely speculative. He outlines...
India Grants One-Month Extension to Russian Marine Insurers
India extended permission for four Russian marine insurers for one month, allowing them to continue covering tankers calling at Indian ports. The extension comes as India remains the top buyer of Russian seaborne crude in 2025, while facing U.S. pressure...
Geopolitical Union: Europe’s Attempt to Take Back Control of Technology Regulation
The European Commission is repositioning itself as a “Geopolitical Commission,” aiming to reclaim control over technology regulation. The strategy, outlined in Benjamin Farrand’s book *Geopolitical Union*, targets standards, micro‑chip access, online platform oversight, industrial data, and artificial intelligence. By blending...
European Central Bank Analysis Highlights Stabilizing Euro Area Property Investment Amid Mixed Drivers
The European Central Bank’s latest focus piece finds euro‑area property investment has likely bottomed out in late 2024, with a brief, modest rebound in early 2025 that quickly faded. After a sharp decline that began in 2022, housing investment remains about 7 %...
Weekend Reading and MB Media Appearances
The MacroBusiness weekend briefing spotlights a series of global and domestic macro developments. In the United States, the Federal Reserve injected $18.5 billion of liquidity, complied with a White House‑requested rate check, and saw sub‑prime unsecured loan balances hit record levels...
Despite U.S. Mortgage Rates Falling to 6 Percent, Homebuyers Remain Hesitant
Pending home sales in January 2026 fell 0.8% month‑over‑month, despite mortgage rates slipping to a six‑year low of 6.01% for the 30‑year fixed loan. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun notes that the rate drop makes 5.5 million households newly mortgage‑eligible, yet...
Protecting Domestic EVs Requires Tariffs or Local Content Rules
Very good Rhodium piece on the cost advantage of Chinese EVs: “In practice, countries seeking to protect domestic industries have two broad options. One is to impose very high tariffs that account not only for subsidies but also for structural...
Commodity Boom Helps to Drive JSE Confidence
South Africa’s commodity surge—gold up 65% and platinum 125%—is fueling a boom on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, with mining firms delivering double‑digit returns. The JSE’s recent rule changes, cutting shareholder approval thresholds from 75% to 50% and aligning disclosure standards,...
Gold's Parabolic Surge May Be Overheated, Reversion Likely
The Rock May Be Too Hot - Gold vs. Commodities - Inflation is notably absent from gold's parabolic rally, which may suggest a too-hot rock if history is a guide. From a base of 100 in 1964, gold in terms...
Core PCE Near Target; Fed Cuts Still Unlikely
Q4/Q4 core PCE inflation was 2.9% last year (vs. 3.0% in 2024). Trump's statement on the GDP report includes a parenthetical jab at the Fed chair, but there's not much of anything in this report that tells the Fed it...
Hapag-Lloyd, WiseTech Global in Container Visibility Initiative
WiseTech Global and Hapag-Lloyd have launched a trial that equips the carrier’s more than two million containers with IoT smart devices, delivering real‑time location updates to WiseTech’s CargoWise platforms. The pilot processes millions of data points daily and introduces a...
2025 GDP Volatile, PDFP Shows Steady Growth
Did 2025 feel like a wild ride? GDP feels your pain. The quarterly swings were big and short-lived. PDFP, which focuses on consumption and private fixed investment, showed more even, solid gains. https://t.co/LlVwQ7yna5
US Underlying Domestic Demand Grew 2.4% in Q4
US GDP: A gauge of underlying domestic demand—real final sales to private domestic purchasers (GDP less inventory change, net exports, and government spending)—grew at a 2.4% annualized rate in Q4 https://t.co/XefZvVp18v
Tariffs Ineffective Against US Trade Deficit? & Family Feud Over Reese’s Recipe
Neal and Toby examine why the U.S. trade deficit continues to grow despite the Trump administration's aggressive tariff policy, highlighting the limited impact of tariffs on the broader balance of payments. They then shift to a family dispute over the...
Inflation Surges, Growth Slumps: White House Economist Stumbles
Higher than expected inflation and lower than expected growth. what an ugly day for white house chief economist hassett and Trump narrative. Do not worry, CPI is out next week and that's easier to manipulate.
Trump’s 5.4% GDP Claim Was Just a Model
Remember when Trump was bragging about Q4 GDP growth, quoting a 5.4% rate? That was the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, not the actual. Now we have the actual: 1.4%. Moral: Don't take GDP "trackers" or anyone citing them, remotely seriously....
Why MAGA Fears Europe
President Donald Trump and his MAGA allies continue to cast the European Union as weak and misguided, a theme echoed at both Davos and the Munich Security Conference. The article counters this narrative, highlighting the EU’s social‑market model and its...
Q4 GDP Misses, Core Inflation Surges Above Forecast
Q4 GDP prints at 1.4% vs expected 3% - Previously 4.4% December Core PCE at 3.0% vs Expected 2.9% - Previously 2.8% y/y Core PCE 0.4% m/m vs Expected 0.3% - Previously 0.2%
Strong US Payrolls Can Depress Dollar, Boost Euro
On Aug. 3, 2012, Goldman put out a trade recommendation to go long Euro. The next day was US payrolls, which were stronger than expected. That caused Euro to jump and USD to fall. An example that strong US data...
Lithium Battery Fires Put the Heat on P&I Clubs
P&I clubs have recorded a ten‑year peak in marine liability claims, resulting in a $98 million underwriting loss over the past three years. The surge is driven primarily by lithium‑ion battery fires on vessels carrying electric vehicles and other battery‑powered cargo,...
Trump's Blockade Collapses Cuba's Tourism Industry
#CubaWatch🇨🇺: Thanks to Trump's blockade, Cuba's tourism industry has entirely collapsed. Major hotels and airlines have completely shut down. Stay tuned. https://t.co/BF6qoIAgu0
Dollar Holds Firm Amid Looming Tariff Decision and US Data
Tariff Decision Day?: The US dollar is trading mostly firmer but quietly in what could be a volatile North American session. It is not just about the US data, of which there is plenty—including the PCE deflator and the first...
Gold and Silver Recovering
The episode reviews a recent rally in gold and silver prices, noting modest gains in Europe and unusually low trading volumes on the U.S. Comex market due to a holiday. It highlights the scant speculative interest and low open interest...
Strong US Data Must Decouple to Trigger Dollar Decline
The US is outgrowing everyone else and that'll stay that way into this year's midterms. So, for the Dollar to fall, you need a correlation break whereby strong US data cause USD to fall. This is how the Dollar traded...
Oil Won’t Ride Super‑Cycle; Growth Slowdown Limits Prices
Beware of the "bull-run narrative" @Matalasdavid Oil's a risk asset unlike value commodities. It's unlikely to have a super-cycle trajectory. 👇 https://t.co/7PUYBWe4PR As economic growth slows, oil will slow. #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket
Shutdown Shadow
The episode examines the impact of the 43‑day government shutdown on U.S. GDP reporting, noting that growth is still projected to be robust despite the delay. It discusses emerging signs that higher‑income households are curbing discretionary spending and outlines what...
USD Firming Ahead of Data, SCOTUS Tariff Ruling
$USD enjoys a firmer tone ahead of US data and possible SCOTUS decision on POTUS use of emergency powers to levy broad tariffs. Mkt tensions over possible US-Iran conflict seems to have eased for the moment but have not...
Restaurants Challenged to Manage the Cost/Inflation Margin Squeeze in 2026
The U.S. restaurant sector enters 2026 facing a steep cost squeeze, with food and labor expenses 30% above 2019 levels. Operators have raised menu prices 31% since 2020, yet profit margins remain tight at just 3‑5%. Consumer demand is shifting...
Friedman on Immigration: Setting the Record Straight
Milton Friedman argued that free immigration clashes with a welfare state, but his stance was more nuanced: he viewed illegal immigration as beneficial because it limits immigrants' access to public benefits. The article notes that most U.S. immigrants are of...
Venezuelan Democracy Needs Action, Not Cheap Talk
U.S. President Donald Trump announced a Venezuela policy that puts oil reconstruction ahead of democratic elections. In a Fox News interview he pledged at least $100 billion from American oil firms to rebuild the country’s oil infrastructure, with the United States...
Research Review | 20 February 2026 | Forecasting Returns
Recent academic research sharpens the tools investors use to forecast long‑term returns and market risk. Rui Ma et al. show that a market‑cap‑weighted Component CAPE ratio aligns prices and earnings, delivering out‑of‑sample R² above 50 %. Javier Estrada confirms that valuation multiples...
A New Iranian Revolution?
Iran’s economy is spiraling under soaring inflation, unemployment and renewed U.S. sanctions, stoking widespread public discontent. The Islamic Republic faces a legitimacy crisis that could trigger either systemic reform or outright collapse. Analysts warn that without a shift toward moderate...
The British Stock Riding the SpaceX Boom
The episode examines why the UK stock market is outpacing the US in 2026, highlighting insider trades at Raspberry Pi and M&S, and a surprising AI prospect in a Japanese toilet firm. Charlene Young warns listeners about fake celebrity investment ads...
Recently Boring Nvidia Reports Next Week. Did We Just See German Green Shoots?
In this episode, Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy examines the stark divergence between the US equity market, which remains highly dispersed and volatile, and Europe’s rally driven by record inflows. He highlights the lingering uncertainty in...
Why Argentina Needs a Labour Market Reform
Argentina’s sweeping fiscal, monetary and regulatory reforms have lifted growth above 5% in 2025 and cut inflation to around 30%, while the budget has balanced for two years. Yet labour market rigidity—high severance costs, a steep tax wedge and pervasive...
Stories of the Week: Unemployment, Industry Consolidation, and Semi-Liquid Funds
This week’s investment roundup highlighted three interlinked themes: a resurgence in unemployment, accelerating consolidation among asset‑management firms, and a surge in semi‑liquid fund inflows. Unemployment edged to 5.2% in Q4 2025, prompting managers to boost cash buffers and reassess risk models....
UK Retail Sales Record Fastest Growth in 20 Months
UK retail sales begin the year with the fastest growth in 20 months https://t.co/GPGNaZk4Oa via @irinaanghel12 https://t.co/kAm5UcAWvQ
WDI May Benefit From Shifting Interest Rate Policy
Western Asset Diversified Income Fund (WDI) trades at a 3.04% discount to NAV and offers a 12.41% yield, positioning it as a high‑yield income vehicle. The fund’s portfolio is heavily weighted toward high‑yield corporate bonds and a sizable floating‑rate component,...