Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
China Introduces 30-Day Visa Waiver for UK and Canadian Nationals
China will allow UK and Canadian passport holders to enter visa‑free for up to 30 days. The waiver runs from 17 February to 31 December 2026 and covers business, tourism, family visits, exchanges and transit. It is expected to speed up project development, trade‑show attendance and cultural‑tourism collaborations in the visitor‑attractions sector. The policy signals Beijing’s intent to deepen cross‑border cultural and commercial ties with the UK and Canada.
Amundi Lists an ETF Dedicated to European Strategic Autonomy on Xetra
Amundi has launched a Luxembourg‑domiciled ETF that tracks the Euronext European Strategic Autonomy index, focusing on ten sectors deemed critical for Europe’s self‑sufficiency. The fund, listed on Xetra and also available in Paris, carries a 0.40% annualised total expense ratio...
USD/JPY Is Looking for Direction Around 153.00 with Key US Data in Focus
USD/JPY is hovering around the 153.00 level as traders await key US data. The pair was rejected at the 153.70 resistance, found support near 152.70, and settled back near 153.00. Weak Japanese Q4 GDP, which fell short of forecasts, kept...
Global Fiat Fears Boost Gold and USD Stablecoins
Wrong. Vast majority of gold buyers have been non Americans that are more worried that their own fiat currencies will lose value than they are about the USD losing value. And while foreign CBs purchased around $100B of gold...
South Africa’s Unemployment Rate Eases to 31.4%
South Africa's overall unemployment rate slipped to 31.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025, down from 31.9% in the prior quarter and marking a second consecutive decline after a peak of 33.2% a year earlier. Employment rose by 44,000, reaching...
India Seeks New Steel Export Markets in Middle East and Asia to Offset EU Carbon Tax Impact: Report
India, the world’s second‑largest crude‑steel producer, is pivoting toward the Middle East and Asian markets to cushion the impact of the European Union’s new carbon border adjustment tax. Roughly two‑thirds of its steel exports currently flow to Europe, where the...
Fund Managers Alarmed over Corporate Spending Even as Optimism at Five-Year High
Fund managers are at a five‑year high of bullishness, yet a record share warn that corporate America is overspending on capital expenditures amid uncertain returns. In Bank of America’s February survey of 162 managers, cash balances rose in February, signaling...
Equal‑Weight S&P Outperforms Only Amid Major Market Shifts
Fascinating study from Bloomberg: S&P Equal Weight outperformance was extremely rare historically: 1999-2002 Dotcom 2009 Post GFC 2020-2021 Covid “Those cases accompanied major shifts in the market.” “Equal-weight S&P managed to maintain some outperformance 250 days later.” “The big question: whether this is the start of an...
UK Funds Remain Unloved Despite Impressive Year for FTSE 100
The FTSE 100 delivered a strong performance this year, climbing roughly 12% despite lingering macro uncertainties. Yet UK equity funds continued to see net outflows, with investors pulling about 15% less capital compared to the previous year. The reluctance stems...
Sovereignty-First ITSM: How Geopolitical Risk Is Reshaping Service Management in 2026
In 2026 enterprises are treating data location as a strategic risk rather than a compliance checkbox, prompting a shift toward sovereignty‑first IT service management (ITSM). Traditional cloud‑based ITSM platforms that store data in foreign jurisdictions expose organizations to sudden geopolitical...
EU's 70% Local EV Rule Risks Higher Costs, Trade Friction
The EU plans to force 70% of EVs sold in Europe to be built there Good luck requiring China to accept higher labor costs & regulatory burden. Success case: higher EV costs, slower rollout & more trade friction. Good plan https://t.co/rHXHgNgJyN #EU #EVs #industrialpolicy #protectionism...
Iran's Hormuz Drills Raise Risk Premium, Shrink Deal Space
Iran launched naval drills in the Strait of Hormuz “Maximum pressure” cuts both ways. Iran wants nuclear-only talk, while the US wants missiles and proxies too The “deal space” is small and the risk premium stays high. https://t.co/Gs9viHRneW #oil #Brent #Hormuz #Iran #geopolitics #energysecurity #OPEC...
Thai Banks’ Bad Loans Dip Slightly
Thai banks’ non‑performing loan ratio slipped to 2.84% at December, down from 2.94% in September. Bank lending fell 1.1% in Q4 2025, marking the sixth straight quarter of contraction, driven by tighter credit to SMEs and consumers. Household debt remains...
Foreign Investment Steady, US Stocks Slightly Lagging
Balanced take from Bob. While the headline may be different than my "get out" thesis. The meat says the same. Flows suggest marginally weaker dollar and relative underperformance of U.S. stocks vs ROW. Don't panic out...
Ongoing War Stifles Ukraine’s Grain Exports
Ukraine’s grain exports have slumped dramatically as Russian shelling intensifies attacks on Black Sea ports and energy infrastructure, cutting monthly shipments from 3.6 Mt to 2.5 Mt. Year‑to‑date volumes are 28.5% lower and export value down 18%, eroding billions of foreign‑currency earnings...
Almi Marine Back in Newbuild Arena with Ultramax Pair
Greek dry‑bulk carrier Almi Marine has re‑entered the new‑building market after a four‑year hiatus, signing a contract for two next‑generation 64,000 dwt ultramax vessels with Nantong Cosco KHI Ship Engineering (NACKS). The ships, slated for delivery in the second quarter of...
Philip R Lane: Bulgaria and the Euro
Philip R. Lane praised Bulgaria’s smooth euro cash changeover, noting that euros now represent 70 percent of cash in circulation as the dual‑lev/euro period ends on 31 January 2026. The speech highlighted Bulgaria’s new seat at the ECB Governing Council, giving the country a...
Christine Lagarde: Preparing for Geoeconomic Fragmentation
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned that deepening supply‑chain interdependence now poses a security risk, prompting Europe to shift toward strategic autonomy. She outlined three policy levers—diversification, indispensability and independence—to reduce reliance on distant suppliers, especially in electronics, chemicals...
Indian Veg Oil Buyers Await Clarity on US Trade Deal
Indian vegetable‑oil importers are waiting for concrete details on the pending U.S.–India trade pact that could lower tariffs on U.S. soybean oil. The framework hints at a 0‑15% duty cut and a tariff‑rate quota of roughly 200,000‑250,000 tonnes, but exact...
India’s Next Big Power Move Is Set to Unfold in the Bay of Bengal
India’s National Green Tribunal has approved the Rs 90,000‑crore Great Nicobar mega‑infrastructure project, clearing the way for a new International Container Transshipment Port at Galethea Bay. The first phase, slated for 2028, will handle over 4 million TEUs annually, with full capacity...
Olaf Sleijpen: Repairing the Vending Machine - How the Savings and Investment Union Is Key to Europe's Future
Olaf Sleijpen, governor of De Nederlandsche Bank, highlighted Europe’s €10 trillion of low‑yield household deposits and the need to channel them into productive capital markets through the Savings and Investment Union. He warned that fragmented insolvency regimes and national rules act...
Will Indonesia’s US$762 Million Ramadan Stimulus Be a ‘Positive’ Boost for the Economy?
Indonesia has unveiled a US$762 million, 12.83 trillion‑rupiah stimulus aimed at bolstering Ramadan consumption. The package includes transport fare discounts of up to 30%, full‑fare ferry rides, and food parcels for low‑income families. Officials hope the measures will sustain mobility and purchasing...
Piero Cipollone: The Digital Euro - Strengthening Europe's Payments Ecosystem
In a speech in Nicosia, ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone presented the digital euro as a cornerstone for Europe’s payment autonomy, security and competitiveness. He emphasized the ECB’s readiness to issue retail central‑bank digital money while maintaining wholesale settlement...
Philip N Jefferson: Economic Outlook and Supply-Side (Dis)inflation Dynamics
Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson said he is cautiously optimistic about the U.S. economy, noting a 4.4% annualized GDP surge in Q3 2025 and a modest 2.2% growth outlook for 2026. The labor market appears balanced with unemployment hovering near 4.4%...
Youth Unemployment at 11-Year High with 16% Out of Work
Youth unemployment in the UK surged to 16.1% in the October‑December 2025 quarter, the highest level since 2014 and now above the EU average of 14.9%. Overall unemployment rose to 5.2%, a five‑year peak, while pay‑rolled jobs slipped by 6,000,...
Kazuyuki Masu: Economic Activity, Prices, and Monetary Policy in Japan
Kazuyuki Masu, a Bank of Japan policy board member, highlighted that U.S. auto tariffs rose to 12.5% in 2025, pressuring Japanese car exporters. He noted that the yen’s depreciation has partially offset the earnings hit for automakers. Masu added that...
Ida Wolden Bache: Economic Perspectives
Ida Wolden Bache, governor of Norges Bank, delivered her annual address on 12 February 2026, warning that geopolitical power plays and rapid AI advances are reshaping the economic landscape. She cited Mark Carney’s view that economic integration is being used...
Modernising Brazilian Private International Law: Party Autonomy and Court Support for International Arbitration
Brazil’s Executive Branch has submitted a Draft General Law on Private International Law, aiming to modernize the country’s conflict‑of‑laws rules. The bill harmonises court and arbitration regimes by explicitly allowing parties to select the governing law of international contracts and...
Record Year for Seaborne Grains with Freight Boost Into 2026
Seaborne agricultural trade set a new high in 2025, moving 716.5 million tonnes – a modest 1% year‑on‑year gain that nonetheless broke the previous record. After a 6% slump in the first half, volumes rebounded 7% in the second half, lifting...
Cash Craze: Currency in Circulation Touches Record Rs 40 Lakh Crore
India's currency in circulation reached a record Rs 40 lakh crore in January 2026, up 11.1% year‑on‑year, while the cash‑to‑GDP ratio slipped to about 11.2%, down from a pandemic peak of 14.4%. Over the past decade, cash holdings have risen from Rs 11.8 lakh crore in...
Neoliberalism Crafts Rules to Shield Global Capitalism From Democracy
I just finished Quinn Slobodian's fascinating book on the parallel evolution of globalization and neoliberalism, with the former (according to the latter) requiring specific rules and institutions to "protect" global capitalism from democratic political pressures. While he focuses very heavily...
North Korean Won Plummets, Ranks Third Worst Globally
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the North Korean won ranks as the WORLD'S 3RD WORST currency. The won has depreciated by 41% against the USD over the past year. PLIGHT OF THE WON = ONE OF THE WORLD’S MOST UNREPORTED STORIES. https://t.co/7leiebPd5D
Overseas and E-Commerce Payments to Be Made Easier in Ethiopia
The National Bank of Ethiopia announced sweeping foreign‑exchange reforms, letting exporters retain 100% of their foreign‑currency earnings in designated accounts and permitting banks to issue payment cards linked to those accounts. The minimum $100 requirement for foreign‑exchange savings accounts has...
ECB Favors High-Debt Nations, Sidelining Low-Debt Germany
Low-debt countries like Germany are hopelessly outnumbered at the ECB. That's why ECB policy is inexorably drifting to help high-debt countries at the expense of low debt ones. So no surprise BuBa President Nagel supports Eurobonds. Going with the flow......
UK Unemployment Surge Drives Sterling Lower Amid Pay Stagnation
UK Unemployment Rises and Private Pay Increases Slow to Five-Year Lows, Pulling Sterling Lower: The US dollar is mixed against the G10 currencies. A healthy reception to Japan’s five-year bond auction helped extend the rally in JGBs, and despite the…...
Trump’s New Arms Rules Will Hit Southeast Asia
President Trump issued an executive order establishing an “America First” arms export strategy that rewards allies who invest in self‑defense, occupy critical geography, or contribute to U.S. economic security. The rubric pushes the Philippines, Singapore and Cambodia toward priority status...
Global Bonds Yield Under 5%, Delivering ~2% Real Return
Almost 90% of global public bonds trade at a yield lower than 5%: Apollo's Torsten Slok. "With inflation at close to 3%, this means that investors in public fixed income only get a 2% real return each year." https://t.co/oCUWfCIGpn
EU Resistance Threatens Effectiveness of New Russia Sanctions
EU countries’ resistance risks blunting latest Russia sanctions package https://t.co/ck1N8lGobr via @AlbertoNardelli @AfPalasciano @donatopmancini https://t.co/6LWNSkOoNN
China’s Digital Yuan and the Fight for Southeast Asia’s Financial Infrastructure
China is accelerating the rollout of its interest‑bearing digital yuan (e‑CNY) across Southeast Asia, launching cross‑border pilots such as the China‑Laos settlement system and expanding access through commercial banks. The People’s Bank of China’s new management framework aims to turn...
Weak UK Data, German Outlook Boost USD, Lift JPY
Disappointing UK jobs data and German ZEW expectations is helping the $USD extend its gains today. Robust reception to Japan's 5yr bond sales helped ignite JGB rally and lifted the $JPY. Softer US rates and heavier equities after US holiday....
Shareholders Trade Peak‑Demand Fear for Growth Appetite
Peak-demand fear is fading, and now shareholders want growth again. Which do you want? Returns or Growth? Can't have both. People in hell want ice water. https://t.co/NKcPuvbtxE #oil #energy #BigOil #Exxon #Chevron #Shell #BP #TotalEnergies #OPEC #reserves #MAndA #markets #investing #geopolitics
BofA Survey Flags Dollar Bearish Bets at over a Decade High. Here's What It Means for Bitcoin
Bank of America’s February survey shows investor exposure to the U.S. dollar is at its most bearish since early 2012, marking a record underweight stance. Historically, a weaker dollar has acted as a bullish tailwind for bitcoin, but since early...
38% Expect Warsh Chair to Push Yields Higher, Dollar Lower
"38% of FMS investors believe that, all else equal, the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair will likely lead to higher US Treasury yields and a lower US dollar." - BofA Global Fund Manager Survey https://t.co/5m0L3ZjRg1
Investors Urge CEOs to Curb Spending Amid Bullish Optimism
Wall Street is full of worried bulls. On one hand, investors are telling CEOs they're overinvesting. On the other, investors are feeling the best about the overall backdrop since June 2021, with "no landing" expectations at a record high: February...
Report: America’s $38 Trillion Debt Demands Bipartisan Action
A new report from the Committee for Economic Development warns that the United States’ national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, matching the size of the economy and rising rapidly. The report urges Congress to create a bipartisan fiscal commission to devise...
China’s $20T Paradox Defies Any Five‑year Plan
A short op on what’s going on under the hood in China’s $20 trn economic paradox with the 15th FYP due next month. No five-year plan will solve the paradox of China’s economy https://t.co/uCtAPYrW7A
Western Alliance Myths Unveiled: From Plato to MAGA
Reässessing the “West” from John Winthrop to Marco Rubio: **From Plato to NATO to MAGA: Marco Rubio’s Myths & the Real "Western Alliance”** 2026-02-16 Mo
Europe’s Next War
Europe faces heightened risk of a broader NATO‑Russia confrontation as the Ukraine war drags on. Over the past four years, NATO allies have poured hundreds of billions of dollars in military, economic, and humanitarian aid into Ukraine, while European nations...
The Dream Palace of the West
Finland’s President Alexander Stubb warns that the West’s last chance to shape a cooperative world order hinges on listening to the global South. He argues that Western sanctions on Russia and confrontational policies toward China alienate billions, eroding the West’s moral...
Cambodia's Payment System Outsourced Abroad Threatens Sovereignty
🇰🇭#Cambodia's payment infrastructure: Outsourced to overseas vendors, platforms and foreign-owned banks. How to maintain the country's sovereignity?