Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
State Firms Told to Avoid Borrowing when Investing
Thailand's finance ministry has instructed state‑owned enterprises to fund new investments primarily from internal revenues, limiting reliance on borrowing that is classified as public debt. The policy follows a backdrop where public debt stands at 66.1% of GDP, close to the 70% statutory ceiling, and SOE‑related debt totals 1.2 trillion baht. For fiscal 2026, the government plans 1.3 trillion baht of borrowing, with 33% already executed in the first quarter. The medium‑term fiscal framework aims to keep deficits below 3% of GDP and debt under the ceiling through 2030.
Economy Has 'Left ICU', Says Finance Chief
Thailand’s economy posted a surprising 2.5% GDP expansion in Q4 2025, outpacing the finance ministry’s 1.8% forecast and the NESDC’s 0.3% estimate. The stronger performance lifted full‑year 2025 growth to 2.4%, above the 2% target, and the finance chief now aims...
'We Do Not Do Illegal Things': Inside a U.S.-sanctioned Stablecoin Issuer's Race to Build a Crypto Giant
A7A5, a Kyrgyzstan‑incorporated ruble‑pegged stablecoin, added roughly $90 billion to its circulating supply last year, outpacing USDT and USDC. The issuer’s affiliates and reserve‑bank partner are listed on the U.S. sanctions list, yet the firm claims full KYC/AML compliance and positions...
AUD/USD Flat Amid US Dollar Strength, RBA Minutes Eyed
The Australian dollar held near 0.7072 against the U.S. dollar on Monday as a firmer greenback limited upside. The pair slipped from three‑year highs of 0.7147 after U.S. CPI showed inflation easing to 2.4% and unemployment edging down to 4.3%,...
India’s Rooftop Solar Goals Slowed by Loan Delays
India’s PM Surya Ghar rooftop solar scheme, launched in February 2024 with up to 40% subsidies, has installed only 2.36 million panels, far short of the 4 million target for March. Loan approvals are delayed or rejected for roughly 60% of applications, and many...
Threats to New US-Canada Bridge
Canada is caught between a U.S. trade war and its own USMCA renewal, while seeking to expand its automotive sector with Asian partners. President Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Canadian goods and warned he could block the Gordie Howe International...
Dangote Drives Nigeria’s Domestic Fuel Supply Above 57% as Imports Retreat
Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery reached full 650,000 bpd capacity in January 2026, processing a record 40.1 million litres of crude per day and supplying 57 % of the nation’s fuel. Domestic output now provides 62 % of premium motor spirit, overtaking imports for the first...
The Promise and Peril of Trump’s Board of Peace
President Donald Trump’s newly created Board of Peace will hold its inaugural meeting on Feb. 19, promising to release $5 billion in humanitarian and reconstruction aid for Gaza. The board, established under UN Security Council Resolution 2803, will operate as a donor‑led, international...
Why Chevron Is Betting Big on Venezuela’s Heavy Crude
Chevron is aggressively expanding its Venezuelan heavy‑crude production to feed its complex Gulf Coast refineries, which are optimized for dense, sulfur‑rich oil. Global supplies of such crude have tightened as Mexican exports fall, Russian barrels are sanctioned, and Canadian logistics...
China 2026: A Quiet Reset in a Shifting Global Order
The episode reflects on the start of the Lunar New Year as a moment to pause and look ahead at China’s evolving role in a shifting global order. Using Wang Wei’s poem, the host argues that while major structures and...
Niger Stockpiled 1,000t of Yellowcake at Military Base: FT
Niger's military government moved roughly 1,000 tonnes of uranium concentrate, known as yellowcake, to Air Base 101 near Niamey after seizing the Orano‑run mine. The stockpile remains unsold, with potential buyers from Russia, China, the United States and the UAE...
New Customs Rules for Imported Parcels
The EU Council approved new customs rules that will end the duty‑free exemption for parcels up to €150, imposing a flat €3 charge per item category starting July 1. Last year, 5.8 billion low‑cost e‑commerce parcels entered the bloc, a 26 % rise...
Letters to the Editor Dated February 16, 2026
The Hindu BusinessLine letters highlight three regulatory concerns. First, they argue that the credit‑deposit ratio alone cannot gauge bank health and call for abolishing the Cash Reserve Ratio to improve deposit mobilisation amid RBI’s new risk‑based insurance premiums. Second, they...
Keir Starmer Urges Faster Defence Spending Push Amid Russia Threat
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer urged a faster acceleration of defence spending, citing the growing Russian threat. Britain currently spends 2.3% of GDP on defence, above NATO’s 2% guideline, and plans to reach 2.5% by 2027 and 3% by the...
Exporters Upbeat on Growth This Year
The Philippine Exporters Confederation (Philexport) is confident that export growth will accelerate this year, buoyed by the active Philippines‑South Korea free‑trade agreement and several pending deals. Preliminary data show 2025 merchandise exports reached $84.41 billion, a 15.2% increase over 2024 and...
The Quiet Architect of Trump’s Global Trade War
Jamieson Greer, a low‑key lawyer turned U.S. Trade Representative, has become the chief architect of President Trump’s renewed global trade war. Since his appointment in early 2025, Greer has designed aggressive tariff structures and led negotiations with major trading partners,...
US Manufacturing Pipeline Grows, Firms Plan $1B in New Factories
A wave of new manufacturing projects across the United States is driving roughly $1 billion in capital spending, spanning heavy equipment, advanced electronics, automation and industrial components. Companies such as John Deere, Rockwell Automation, and Applied Optoelectronics are breaking ground on...
Munich Security Conference. What Was Said About Russia?
The Munich Security Conference highlighted growing diplomatic leverage for Russia, with EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas warning that Moscow may gain more at the negotiating table than on the battlefield. U.S. Senator Marco Rubio expressed uncertainty about Russia’s willingness...
How Long Can Kyrgyzstan’s Economic Boom Keep Booming?
Kyrgyzstan’s economy surged, posting 11% GDP growth in 2025 after a 9% rise in 2024, driven by a logistics boom that rerouted Chinese goods northward following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The surge is reinforced by soaring gold exports, higher remittances...
EUREP Expansion and the Euro – Going Global
The European Central Bank announced that, from the third quarter of 2026, it will expand its EUREP euro repo facility to a global €50 billion line available to any central bank that meets AML and sanctions criteria. The repo offers euro...
Exports Rise 0.61% to $36.56 Billion in January
India's merchandise exports rose modestly by 0.61% to $36.56 billion in January, according to Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal. Imports, however, jumped 19.2% to $71.24 billion, widening the monthly trade deficit to $34.68 billion. The fiscal‑year outlook remains positive, with total exports of goods...
Tamil Nadu’s $1-Trillion Economy Goal Could Be Delayed by a Year to 2031: Economic Survey
Tamil Nadu’s Economic Survey 2025‑26 projects its $1 trillion GDP ambition could slip from 2030 to 2031 if the rupee weakens faster than expected. The state posted a 16% nominal growth rate in 2024‑25, with manufacturing expanding 14.74% real and exports doubling...
Booking.com De-Lists Two German Hilton Hotels For Ties To Iran Regime, Cancels Reservations
Booking.com has removed two Hilton properties in the Frankfurt region from its platform, cancelling several hundred existing reservations. The hotels – Hilton Frankfurt City Centre and Hilton Frankfurt Gravenbruch – are owned by the Mashali family, linked to Iranian banker...
India, UK Making Genuine Effort to See if FTA Can Be Operationalised in April: Commerce Secy
India and the United Kingdom are pushing to operationalise their Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) by April, aiming to grant duty‑free access to 99 percent of Indian exports. The pact still requires approval from the UK Parliament before it can...
Italy Says It Stands Ready to Train Police in Gaza
Italy announced it is prepared to train new police forces in Gaza and the wider Palestinian territories, signaling a proactive diplomatic stance in the region. Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani emphasized readiness to build a Gaza police unit and support Palestinian...
Iran Says US 'More Realistic' On Nuclear Issue, as Guards Begin Drills in Hormuz Strait
Iran’s foreign ministry said the United States has moved to a more realistic stance on Tehran’s nuclear programme ahead of a second round of indirect talks in Geneva, mediated by Oman. The Revolutionary Guard Corps launched naval drills in the...
For the Right Investor, This Week’s 30-Year TIPS Auction Will Have Appeal
The Treasury will auction a 30‑year Treasury Inflation‑Protected Security (TIPS) this week, offering a real‑yield that could attract investors seeking long‑term inflation hedges. Analysts note that redeeming early‑year I Bonds can generate an unexpected tax liability, complicating cash‑flow planning. Recent CPI...
Britons Feeling ‘Dismal’ About Finances Amid Mounting Debts, Survey Finds
A new S&P Global survey shows UK consumer confidence slipping to a 44.8 reading in February, the lowest level in two years. Households are adding debt at the fastest pace since July, with the sharpest increase among 18‑ to 24‑year‑olds,...
US Growth Decouples From Jobs, Entering Uncharted Territory
Via the Financial Times: My thoughts on why US "jobless growth" may have entered uncharted territory. The decoupling of US growth from employment looks more persistent—and consequential—than the three previous episodes we've seen over the last 40 years: https://www.ft.com/content/298a38bb-4cc1-44f3-bd62-6aff25d58b94 #economy #jobs #employment #unemployment #growth...
No Question of Ethanol Inclusion in India-US Deal: ISMA’s Deepak Ballani
India’s sugar and ethanol sectors remain outside the India‑US trade talks, with ISMA Director General Deepak Ballani confirming that ethanol is explicitly excluded and sugar export quotas have been modestly raised to 20 LT for 2025‑26. He warns that the limited quota‑based...
Treasuries Prefer Higher Inflation Over Low Rates for Revenue
One of the under-reported stories in DM fiscal discourse is that for all the talk about how treasuries in the UK, US, France etc 'want' lower rates, they also want, and desperately, need high(er) inflation and the nominal tax revenue...
Eurogroup Sets 2026 Priorities, Boosts Euro’s Global Role
Back in Brussels today for the #Eurogroup meeting, where we discussed: 🔹 euro area policy priorities for 2026 🔹 the international role of the euro https://t.co/FAa7OvZiMt
SPTS: January Job Cuts, Limited CPI Gives Space For Growth Mandate Focus And Cuts
State Street’s SPDR Portfolio Short Term Treasury ETF (SPTS) is gaining attention as its 1.85‑year duration aligns with a lower‑inflation environment, allowing a growth‑focused mandate. The ETF’s exposure to short‑term rate moves helps it sidestep risks tied to long‑term USD...
Semiconductors Shift From Volume to ASP‑Driven Value
Modeled a range of scenarios, but showing mid-bull to make a key point. For the first time in semiconductor industry history, value creation is primarily an ASP story not a volume story. https://t.co/IoHFb65Gmq
Investors Buy Protection Despite Record VIX Short Positions
Does anyone have a good explanation for why equity skew shows investors are paying up for downside protection but also VIX futures are at near record shorts? Those seem to be contradictory. https://t.co/IWYZ9IHTYl
New System Sees Truck Queues Build at Nhava Sheva Terminal
Hauliers at Mumbai’s Nhava Sheva (JNPA) terminal report truck queues of 25‑30 hours after a new slot‑allocation system was introduced at Gateway Terminals India (GTI). The bottleneck has left vehicles cleared by customs stuck for 3‑4 days, prompting the Nhava Sheva Container Operators’ Welfare...
Warsh May Threaten Fed Stability Despite Doubtful Capability
Good piece. Warsh would be a fundamental break from the Bernanke, Yellen, and Powell Feds if he carried out his views. Do I think he’s capable of pulling that off? Not really. Do I think he might try to and...
Seeking Causes Behind Hedge Funds' Rising Leverage Beyond
Are there any other explanations for the multi-year vertical ascent in hedge fund gross leverage aside from a reduction in front end interest rates / funding costs? https://t.co/WkIt1xAlmd
The Rain in Spain Falls Mainly on Your Supply Chain
The U.S. Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) has opened a public investigation that could overhaul how vessels call at Spanish ports and how Spanish‑flagged ships operate in foreign harbors. The probe follows Spain’s November 2024 decision to deny docking privileges to...
China's Surplus Doesn't Directly Boost US Treasury Holdings
Two things are simultaneously true -- a) China's surplus doesn't automatically flow into its fx reserves and then into Treasuries and Agencies b) China's large ongoing surplus (+ the increase in fx assets of the state banks) cautions against using the...
Foreign Central Banks Sell USTs Even as Dollar Weakens
One of a number of potentially important macro divergences that occurred in 2H25 is shown below. For the prior 10+ years, foreign Central Banks sold USTs when the USD rose and bought USTs when the USD fell. In 2H25, foreign CB’s sold...
Zhonggu Spreads Its Wings to Meet Manufacturing Shift
Zhonggu Logistics, China’s largest coastal container carrier, announced an order for six 6,000 TEU vessels, with options for two more, to support a strategic pivot toward intra‑Asia shipping as Chinese manufacturing relocates across the region. The mid‑size ships address port constraints...
IEA and OPEC Clash on Oil Outlook, Shaping 2024 Strategy
Why @IEA and @OPECSecretariat are split on what comes next for oil - and what it means for strategy this year https://t.co/FUAD5TlcG4 @TheNationalNews
Trading Week Signals Fed Cut Outlook for 2026
New trading week = big clues for rates 👀 Futures up, gold down, dollar strong… what is the market betting on for Fed cuts in 2026? Fed speakers, FOMC minutes, global data & a surprise risk event ahead Watch the video before you...
EU Commission to Attend Trump's Board of Peace Meeting as Observer
EU Commissioner for the Mediterranean Dubravka Suica will travel to Washington to attend the Board of Peace meeting convened by President Donald Trump as an observer. The EU Commission clarified it will not become a board member but will participate...
Euro's Neglect Highlights Geopolitical Weakness
We live in a beggar-thy-neighbor world. Everyone is trying to get their currencies down except for the Euro zone, another symptom of geopolitical weakness. While everyone else is managing their currencies down, the Euro is suffering from benign neglect... https://t.co/QpUo91Xcq2 https://t.co/7qByDtUMFN
Companies Resume Price Hikes After Tariff Surge
"The Break Is Over. Companies Are Jacking Up Prices Again." "Such new price increases follow last year’s wave of tariff-driven price hikes" https://t.co/onoN6WYPHy https://t.co/OjVUbYFXnM
India-US Trade Deal: Indian Chief Negotiator to Visit US Next Week to Finalise Legal Framework for BTA Deal
Indian chief negotiator Darpan Jain will lead a delegation to Washington next week to finalize the legal framework of the bilateral trade agreement (BTA) with the United States. The interim agreement announced on Feb 7 reduces U.S. tariffs on Indian exports...
Dollar Gains Strength Over G10 Amid Low FX Turnover
In subdued foreign exchange turnover, the dollar enjoys a firmer bias against most G10 currencies amid on broadly consolidative tone. https://t.co/cyTShaySWO
FX Steadies as JPY Slips on Weak Data
US and China's mainland markets are closed today. The FX market is calmer and most G10 currencies are little changed. $JPY is the notable exception as disappointing data weighs on it. See https://t.co/cyTShaySWO https://t.co/ZB9uMP7xUC