Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Kyodo News Digest: Feb. 16, 2026
Japan's economy posted a modest 0.2% annualized growth in Q4 2025, its first expansion in two quarters, as consumer spending rose slightly while exports fell under U.S. tariff pressure. TEPCO began trial electricity transmission from unit 6 at the Kashiwazaki‑Kariwa nuclear plant, marking the first nuclear power output in 14 years. The government halted advance deportation notices to foreign lawyers, discussed monetary policy with BOJ chief Kazuo Ueda after a landslide election, and signaled a possible upgrade to its Indo‑Pacific strategy amid heightened security tensions. Meanwhile, a rare Pokémon Illustrator card fetched a record $16.49 million at auction and Japanese skier Ikuma Horishima earned a dual moguls silver at the Winter Olympics.
Republicans and Democrats Unite to Condemn Trump’s Attacks on Allies
At the Munich Security Conference, both Republicans and Democrats openly condemned President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda, unpredictable foreign‑policy moves, and his claim over Greenland. High‑profile figures such as Hillary Clinton, Governor Gavin Newsom, Senator Elissa Slotkin and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez...
Analyst Highlights Focus of IEW Event
The International Energy Week (IEW) in London highlighted the clash between geopolitics and a projected global oil surplus for 2026. SEB commodities analyst Bjarne Schieldrop warned that OPEC+ will likely trim production by roughly three million barrels per day to...
China's Russian Oil Imports to Hit New Record in February as India Cuts Back
China’s independent refiners boosted Russian oil imports to a record roughly 2.08 million barrels per day in February, overtaking the 1.7 million bpd seen in January. The surge follows India’s sharp cutback to about 1.16 million bpd, leaving China as Moscow’s top seaborne...
Forex Today: Japanese GDP Data Underwhelms
Japan’s Q4 GDP expanded only 0.1% YoY, well below the 0.4% consensus, nudging the economy away from a technical recession but dampening reflation hopes. The weak data erased much of the yen’s recent 3% rally sparked by the new government’s...
Nearshoring and Logistics Upgrades Position the Caribbean as a New Regional Hub
The Caribbean is repositioning as a regional supply‑chain hub as nearshoring gains traction and governments fund logistics upgrades. High logistics costs—16 to 25 percent of GDP—have spurred port expansions in the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Guyana and Belize, backed by investors such as DP World...
Fitch, Afreximbank, and Africa's Development Sovereignty
Afreximbank terminated its credit rating relationship with Fitch after the agency reclassified the bank as high‑risk for providing debt relief to Ghana. Fitch argued the support indicated a lack of preferred‑creditor status, a claim the bank disputes, citing treaty‑based protections...
Startup Nation: What It Really Takes to Build a Resilient Innovation Hub
Governments are seeking ways to build startup ecosystems that can grow even during geopolitical shocks, supply‑chain disruptions, and economic volatility. The article argues that resilience—not branding or isolated reforms—is the key, using Silicon Valley’s ability to compress, recalibrate, and accelerate...
Japan's Economy Barely Grows in Oct-Dec Quarter as Exports Slow
Japan’s economy grew a modest 0.2 percent annualised in the October‑December quarter, just enough to avoid a technical recession after a 0.7 percent contraction in the prior quarter. Private consumption rose 0.4 percent, but a 1.1 percent drop in exports dragged overall growth. The...
India's Wholesale Inflation Rises to 1.81% in January
India’s wholesale price index (WPI) accelerated to 1.81% year‑on‑year in January, up sharply from 0.53% in December. The rise was led by higher food prices, while falling fuel costs provided a modest offset. Although the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)...
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization in the Middle East: A Conversation with Eva Seiwert
In this episode, host Jonathan Fulton talks with Dr. Eva Seiwert about the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s expanding role in the Middle East, noting Iran’s recent full membership and the region’s growing list of dialogue partners. Seiwert explains the SCO’s dual nature—as...
Non-Tariff Measures Costing Industry Billions: GA
Grains Australia’s new report quantifies non‑tariff measures (NTMs) as a 20.4% tariff‑equivalent on Australian grain exports, costing the sector about $4.6 billion in forgone revenue each year. The analysis, built on ABARES research and ANU‑led econometric modelling, is the most detailed...
The End of the Boozy Chinese Banquet Hits Australia’s Largest Winemaker
Treasury Wine Estates’ push back into China has been derailed by a government crackdown on extravagant banquets and tighter grey‑market controls. The winemaker announced it will pull 400,000 cases from China and 500,000 from the United States to regain pricing...
What Keeps Singapore’s Retail Growth Resilient?
Singapore’s retail sector has quietly outperformed expectations, delivering a 12.3% inflation‑adjusted sales increase over the past decade while the population grew 10.4%. Excluding automotive sales, non‑auto retail rose 11.8% since 2019, translating to a healthy 0.7% annual per‑capita gain. Mall...
Australia Exports 2.29Mt Wheat in Dec in New-Crop Surge
Australia’s wheat exports jumped to 2,288,487 tonnes in December 2025, more than double November’s volume and slightly above the 2.13 Mt shipped a year earlier. The surge reflects the arrival of new‑crop wheat from southern ports, marking the start of the...
Myanmar Junta Expels Timor-Leste’s Top Diplomat Over War Crimes Case
Myanmar's military junta expelled Timor‑Leste's top diplomat after Dili opened war‑crimes proceedings. The case, filed by the Chin Human Rights Organization, accuses senior general Min Aung Hlaing of rape, murder and attacks in Chin State. The junta called the move a breach...
Money and Me: What Singapore Investors Need to Know About Budget 2026 and Brewing Billions in China's Market
In this episode, host Michelle Martin breaks down Singapore's Budget 2026, highlighting Prime Minister Lawrence Wong's AI‑centric growth plan and its implications for local equities and AI‑infrastructure stocks. She then shifts focus to China, evaluating the prospects of EV leaders...
Institutional Cash at Historic Low Triggers Global Sell Signal
🚨Global equities 'SELL SIGNAL' was triggered for the 7th month STRAIGHT: Institutional investors' cash as a share of assets fell to 3.2% in January, the lowest EVER. Cash allocations at or below 4% indicate a SELL SIGNAL for world stocks.👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-stocks-ended-the-week-mixed-after-a-powerful-rebound-on-friday-weekly-market-recap-trading-week-0
Bears Dominate Oil Market Narrative After Energy Week
COLUMN: In the oil market, the bears control the narrative — at least for now. (My summary after last week's International Energy Week, the oil trading industry's annual jamboree in London) @Opinion https://t.co/Y3OHEhD4k5
Millennials and Gen Z Will Drive Travel Spending in 2026: Klook
Klook’s Travel Pulse 2026 report reveals that 88% of global travelers intend to keep or increase their travel budgets despite economic headwinds, with Asia‑Pacific travelers 50% more likely to boost spending than their Western counterparts. The survey of 11,000 Klook...
Macro Risk Memo Extends Beyond Crypto After BTC Drop
In January, we outlined a late-cycle restrictive regime and leaned cautious on risk. Since then, BTC has declined materially and leadership has narrowed. The February Macro Risk Memo expands the framework beyond crypto into broader macro. Now live: https://t.co/QKQMRbbeKi https://t.co/b0h9q5CS5C
This Week's Macro Calendar Promises Major Market Volatility
🚨 KEY MACRO EVENTS TO WATCH THIS WEEK: Monday – U.S. markets closed for Presidents Day Wednesday – December Durable Goods Orders release and FOMC Meeting Minutes. Friday – December PCE Inflation data is released and 15% of S&P 500 companies are reporting...
Q-Day: Bank Quantum Attack Could Cost US Economy Trillions, Warns Citi
Citi warns that quantum computers could break public‑key encryption within the next decade, estimating a 19‑34% probability of a widespread breach by 2034 and 60‑82% by 2044. A successful quantum attack on a major U.S. bank could generate $2‑3.3 trillion in...
Sheinbaum Halts Cuba Oil to Evade Trump Tariffs
Mexico's Sheinbaum is stopping oil flow to Cuba to dodge Trump’s tariff threat It risks backlash inside Morena’s pro-Cuba wing--her own party. https://t.co/A4rwOfLqHy #Mexico #Sheinbaum #Cuba #Morena #geopolitics #oil #sanctions #trade #tariffs #latam
California's Gasoline Costs Rise From Bahamas Imports
California has to import US gasoline via Bahamas Refinery closures + no Gulf-to-CA pipelines + the Jones Act = a logistics tax https://t.co/3dGBI24oXI #gasoline #California #energy #refining #JonesAct #shipping #supplychain #oil #inflation #markets
The Fed's New Target: Part II
In Part II, the podcast examines how the ongoing "Great Compression" of money‑market rates is pushing the Federal Reserve to replace its traditional overnight Fed Funds target with a new benchmark. It explains that overnight Fed Funds volume has collapsed...
A Lot of Bull: As STI Breaches 5,000, What More Can We Call For?
The Straits Times Index broke the 5,000‑point barrier on Feb 12 as Finance Minister Lawrence Wong presented Budget 2026, confirming JPMorgan’s bullish target from last year. The milestone follows a series of equity‑market reforms, including a S$1.5 billion top‑up to the Financial Sector...
MEGA PROJECTS AND A CLEAR STRATEGY DRIVE EGYPT'S TOURISM BOOM
Egypt’s tourism rebounded dramatically in 2025, welcoming 19 million international visitors—a 21% year‑over‑year increase—and generating $18‑$24 billion in revenue. The surge is driven by flagship investments such as the Grand Egyptian Museum, which opened in November 2025, and ambitious Red Sea coastal...
FOMC Minutes May Spark Q1 Market Shift
dailyanalysts 🚨 WEEK AHEAD ALERT: Feb 16-21 🚨 Three catalysts could define your portfolio's Q1. Markets closed Monday for Presidents' Day, but Tuesday through Friday is packed with market-moving data. S&P 500 is flat YTD. Nasdaq down 3%. Consumer confidence at DECADE LOWS. Here's...
DEEP DIVE: 10 Reasons To Remain Optimistic About The US Economy
The Treasury estimates average tax refunds will rise to about $4,000 this year, driven by the retroactive tax cuts of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Higher refunds boost disposable income, reigniting consumer spending after a recent flattening. Meanwhile, Baby...
Hapag-Lloyd’s Plan to Acquire Zim Would Deepen Shipping Oligopoly
Hapag-Lloyd announced a $3.5 billion plan to acquire Israel’s Zim Integrated Shipping Services, pending regulator sign‑off. The transaction would add roughly 704,000 TEUs, pushing Hapag-Lloyd’s capacity above 3 million TEUs and placing it among the world’s five largest container lines. The deal...
US Employment Costs Rise 0.7%, Lowest Since 2021
US employment costs rose 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025, just under forecasts of 0.8%, and the lowest level since Q2 2021.
Tech Pressure Rises, Defensives Gain Amid Market Crossroads
Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: 1. Tech stocks (particularly software) remain under pressure. 2. Investor exposure to tech is at historically elevated levels. 3. Surging tech capex is coming at the cost of buybacks. 4. Private equity stocks are also coming under...
Monday: Aussie Dollar Riding High on RBA Hike
In this episode, ANZ Research analysts discuss the recent surge in the Australian dollar following the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) interest rate hike. They explain how the tighter monetary policy has strengthened the currency, the impact on inflation and...
US‑China Gap Lies Beyond Financialization Share of GDP
Whatever the difference between the US and China may be and however you evaluate it, it isn’t in “financialization”, at least not as measured by the share of finance in GDP (h/t twitter account of devarbol for this graph). More...
Volatility Rises, Liquidity Dips, US Premium Deflates
What's on tap for the week ahead? An increased frequency of volatility meets a holiday liquidity gap, while a run of event risk weighs in on the steadily deflating US premium. https://t.co/17IH2lFIn0 https://t.co/AlKhX25xxn
Zambia Comprehensive Comeback Belatedly Blesses Debt Framework
The episode reviews Zambia's overdue debt restructuring progress, highlighting a post‑default €3 billion Eurobond swap that now accounts for about a quarter of its external debt and a 95% debt‑to‑GDP ratio. It notes strong market rebounds with the kwacha up 15%...
Cuba's Power Generation Falls Below Half Demand.
ENERGY CRISIS IN CUBA: Granma, the mouthpiece of the Cuban regime, says that electricity generation in the island is covering less than half the expected demand. The island is suffering the largest energy shortages since the collapse of the Soviet...
Upcoming Week Packed with GDP, PCE, FOMC Insights
Get my newsletter Tuesday morning: https://t.co/dSU3TT2kZX Busy week coming with GDP, Core PCE, FOMC Minutes $PANW $ADI $WMT $DE https://t.co/7mNeUbi7R9
Bonds, Consumers Doubt BLS Jobs Narrative With GDP Due
The U.S. will release its Q4 2025 GDP figures this week, a data point that could reshape expectations for the nation’s growth trajectory. Meanwhile, bond markets are reacting to growing skepticism about the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ jobs narrative, with...
TIC Data Misses China’s Treasury Holdings Abroad
My periodic reminder that the US TIC data doesn't measure China's holdings of US Treasuries. It only measures China's holdings of Treasuries in US custodians. The real question is how many Treasuries Chinese entities hold in non US...
AI Hype Persists, yet Macro Data Shows No Productivity Boost
Three years after ChatGPT, AI is everywhere, except in macroeconomic data. If AI’s value is in productivity enhancement, it's still not showing up in the numbers. AI = LOTS OF HYPE. https://t.co/x96Abr0tD7
East Asia, Africa Match West; MENA, South Asia Lag
East Asia has labour-market gender gaps comparable to those in Europe and North America. Sub-Saharan Africa is also surprisingly similar (in the formal labour market). MENA and South Asia have massive gender segregation and LatAm and Carib are surprisingly in-between....
Stockpile Buffers Risk, Not Replaces Chinese Supply
A $12B rare earth stockpile is a step in the right direction, but buying from China on the open market isn’t independence; it’s a piggy bank with a very fragile supply chain. Until we build domestic processing, this is a...
U.S. Economy Near Soft Landing Amid Multiple Risks
This isn’t a victory lap, and it isn’t a doom story. The U.S. economy is closer to a soft landing than it’s been in some time, and there are real risks that could undo it from multiple directions. I try...
Lagarde: Incentives, Not Taxes, Keep Capital in Europe
ECB President Christine Lagarde says creating incentives for investments in Europe is a better approach to prevent capital outflows to other regions than imposing taxes https://t.co/ULSkU54mw5 via @Rauwald @mcnienaber https://t.co/KxLtLZqWrp
ECB Rate Hike Expected to Strengthen Euro, Says Capital Group
The ECB will raise interest rates at least once this year, significantly boosting the euro against the dollar, according to Capital Group, the $3.3 trillion asset manager https://t.co/CFxgbQlz0Q via @Sujata_markets https://t.co/6EBSHD6SYI
Eurasia Holds 81% of Trade‑Linked Jobs Globally
81 percent of employment worldwide that is linked to trade in goods and services is in Europe and Asia. Globalization is a eurasian story. Chartbook 433 just dropped. Check it out. https://t.co/jq1gYjLP4X https://t.co/I3iRrM8XEN
Consumption, Not Exports, Powers China's Growth
Why smart people say that exports “contribute” to China’s growth rather than “driving” it: almost all the time, growth in consumption is, in fact, a bigger contributor. More at today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/NNNTMiyj6N
Core Services Inflation Stays Tame, No Overheating Signs
There's lots of commentary that US inflation will overheat, but there's no sign of that. My proxy for core services inflation was very well behaved in all of 2025 (purple) and the Jan. '26 data point (pink) was much more...