Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Walmart’s Sam’s Club Cracks China Market Formula Even as Foreign Retailers Shut Shop
Walmart‑owned Sam’s Club is expanding in China by deepening localisation, offering China‑specific products such as ginseng, copper‑gourd ornaments, and right‑sized private‑label packs. The chain opened ten new stores in 2025, bringing its footprint to 63 locations and shifting focus to lower‑tier cities as first‑tier markets near saturation. These moves have generated double‑digit transaction growth, outpacing Walmart’s broader hypermarket segment, which continues to contract. Meanwhile, the retailer is boosting its quality‑control budget after recent food‑safety incidents.
JICA Mulls Resuming ODA Loans to Pakistan After Decadelong Hiatus
Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) is weighing a restart of official development assistance (ODA) loans to Pakistan after a ten‑year hiatus. The move reflects improving macro‑economic indicators, including steadier growth and reduced fiscal stress. JICA’s decision will be coordinated with...
The Housing Inflection Point
The episode examines the current U.S. housing market inflection point, highlighting softened builder confidence, persistently tight resale inventory, and the potential impact of a credible rate‑cut cycle on margins and incentives. It discusses policy initiatives aimed at streamlining permitting and...
Real vs Technical Inflation: Which Should Guide Monetary Policy in Nigeria?
Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics rebased its Consumer Price Index to a 2024 base year, pulling headline inflation down from 24.48% in January 2025 to 15.15% by December 2025. Critics argue the technical decline masks persistent real inflation, with food prices still...
What Nigeria’s Economy Optimises for — Without Admitting It
Nigeria’s economy is structured to reward navigating bureaucratic friction rather than boosting productivity, efficiency, or innovation. World Bank data shows firms spend over 40% more time on regulations than the regional average, creating a thriving informal ecosystem of brokers, fixers...
Uganda’s Ports Crippled by Encroachment and Neglect
Uganda’s eight lake ports, managed by state‑owned Uganda Railways Corporation, are crippled by illegal land encroachments, military occupations, and climate‑related water level shifts. Key facilities such as Port Bell and Lambu Port face stalled redevelopment despite an African Development Bank...
India's Textile and Apparel Exports Down by 3.75% in January, Outlook Improves Now with India US Interim Deal
India's textile and apparel exports fell 3.75% in January 2026, dropping to $3.27 billion from $3.40 billion a year earlier, primarily due to U.S. tariffs that remained until February 7. Cotton yarn, fabrics and handloom products declined over 4%, while carpet and jute...
U.S. Treasury Rates Weekly Update for February 13, 2026
U.S. Treasury rates slipped across the curve in the week ending February 13, 2026. The 30‑year yield fell 0.16%, while the benchmark 10‑year dropped 0.18% to 4.04%. The 3‑year note settled at 3.43%. The declines reflect modest easing in market...
Quick Take: Thermal Coal Prices Rising
In this brief episode, the host highlights a recent surge in API2 (Northwest Europe) thermal coal futures for March delivery, which have risen roughly $5 per metric tonne over five trading sessions, briefly breaching $108/mt before settling near $107.50/mt. The...
New Zealand’s Housing Crash Restores Affordability
New Zealand’s housing market has entered a sharp correction, with the REINZ house‑price index falling 0.6% month‑on‑month and 16.2% from its early‑2022 peak, equating to a 30% real‑terms loss since 2019. Mortgage rates have dropped to pre‑pandemic levels after the...
Stocks to Buy in 2026 for Long Term: IGL, Siemens Energy Among 5 Stocks that Could Give 10-40% Return
Brokerage houses have highlighted five Indian equities that could deliver 10‑40% returns by 2026. Motilal Oswal sees Indraprastha Gas (IGL) rising 41% to ₹235 and Siemens Energy up 31% to ₹3,600. Citi maintains a Buy on Lupin with a 15% upside,...
US Dollar Positioning Hits Record Underweight in Bank of America Survey
Bank of America’s FX sentiment survey shows net US dollar exposure at a record underweight, the most negative level since the survey began in January 2012. Short positions have surged to extreme levels, surpassing the lows recorded in April 2023....
Market Quote of the Day by Sir John Templeton | “The Time of Maximum Pessimism Is the Best Time to...
Sir John Templeton’s adage that the best buying opportunities arise at peak pessimism is highlighted as a timeless investing principle. The article notes that widespread fear compresses valuations, allowing strong companies to be bought at discounts, while emphasizing the need...
BOJ Likely to Raise Rates 25bp April, Former Board Member Says. Gradual Move Toward 1.25%
Former Bank of Japan board member Seiji Adachi says the central bank is most likely to raise rates in April rather than March, waiting for clearer wage and inflation data. The BOJ’s December hike to 0.75% marked the first move...
Europe Still Buys Russian LNG and Uranium, Despite Criticism
🧐This is nonsense hype from the Center for the Study of Democracy. Yet CNN did not bother to check the validity of their claims or ask other researchers. Here's why: 💥Many European countries, including France, buy LNG from Russia. 💥The US and...
China Shifts Reserves to State Banks, Boosts Returns
Beijing really just outsourced its reserves to its state banks, and shifted out of US custodians High return on investment tho. Tons of folks swallow the fall in reported Treasury holdings hook, line and sinker https://t.co/MKw3EJlSuR
Indonesia Readies 1,000 Soldiers for Potential Deployment to Gaza in April
Indonesia may deploy 1,000 troops to Gaza as early as April, part of a UN‑mandated International Stabilization Force that could expand to 8,000 soldiers by June. The decision rests with President Prabowo Subianto, who is also set to attend President...
2025 Year-End Bonuses Shrink, Uneven Amid Economic Slowdown
1/2 SCMP: "Long viewed by Chinese employees as a barometer of corporate prospects, industry momentum and even the broader economy, the year-end bonus packages for 2025 have become smaller, rarer and far more unevenly distributed, amid slowing... https://t.co/MFbnMtmZdY
China's Hidden Bank Interventions Hit $800B Annual Record
The annualized measures of Chinese intervention over the last 3ms that capture backdoor intervention by the state banks are at all time highs in dollar terms -- over $200b a quarter/ over $800b annualized https://t.co/7vlh3tf4CX
China Hits Renewable Milestone, But Coal Isn’t Going Anywhere
China’s operating power capacity from non‑fossil sources surpassed fossil‑fuel capacity for the first time, reaching 52 % of the total in February 2026. The achievement reflects a decade of aggressive solar and wind deployment, backed by the world’s largest clean‑energy supply chain....
Sinokor's 120‑tanker Dominance Spikes Freight, Rattles Oil Markets
South Korean Sinokor now controls 120 oil tankers When one buyer controls the tradable fleet, charterers panic-book, freight spikes, and shocks bleeds into physical oil prices and spreads. https://t.co/Z2GsMyfbtl #oil #tankers #VLCC #shipping #freight #supplychain #sanctions #geopolitics #markets #energy
Falling Rates Could Quickly Revive Builder Margins
Sales are weak. Inventory is tight. Builder sentiment is soft. If rates fall, incentives drop — and margins can snap back fast. The setup in homebuilders isn’t getting enough attention. Read more: https://t.co/AJREG4myee
EU Weighs Sanctions on Georgia’s Kulevi Port over Suspected Russian Oil Links
The European Union is considering adding Georgia’s Black Sea port of Kulevi to its 20th sanctions package, accusing it of facilitating Russian crude shipments that fund the war in Ukraine. The draft targets four ports, marking the bloc’s first move...
Iranian Rial Plummets, Becomes World's Second Worst Currency
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Iranian rial ranks as the WORLD'S 2ND WORST currency. The rial has depreciated by 44% against the USD over the past year. RIAL = THE GREAT DESTABILIZER. https://t.co/06OiclsaSq
2026 Macro Outlook: Resilient Momentum Amid Inflation Leaks
New episode 🎙️ Rob Haworth (U.S. Bank Asset Management) joins me to break down 2026 macro: resilient momentum, inflation + earnings “leaking” through the system, tariffs, geopolitics, Fed uncertainty, and what to watch if rates spike. https://t.co/OPTdLbcGgJ
Insights From Jeremy Grantham: Bubble Risks in Today’s Market
In this episode, Jeremy Grantham discusses the persistent risk of bubbles in today’s market, emphasizing that while transformative tech narratives—especially around AI—can be genuine, they often inflate valuations beyond realistic expectations. He warns that the real bubble may lie in...
Japan’s Nuclear Restarts Cut Costs, Boost Yen, Tame Inflation
Japan’s nuclear reactors continue to come back online. This is a major positive for consumers, businesses, and the environment, as it increases the supply of cheap energy, and reduces reliance on expensive imported fossil fuels. This dynamic should also support the...
ICYMI: China to Remove Tariffs on Imports From 53 African Nations From May 1
China will eliminate tariffs on imports from 53 African nations starting May 1, 2026, expanding the preferential regime beyond the continent’s least‑developed economies. The zero‑tariff policy applies to every African country that maintains diplomatic ties with Beijing and is paired with a...
Soft Landing Looks More Plausible, but the Fed Isn’t Ready to Call It Done.
U.S. macro data are aligning for a potential soft landing, with core CPI easing to 2.5% year‑over‑year and unemployment slipping to 4.3% in January. While inflation is moving toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal, the Fed’s preferred gauge remains near...
Asia Stocks Seen Muted on Holiday Trade, Oil Gains: Markets Wrap
Asian equities opened muted on Tuesday as holiday‑thin trading reduced volumes across the region. Futures indicated a slight rise for Australia and a modest dip for Japan, while the Euro Stoxx 600 remained flat. The yen slipped to around 153 per...
Suriname's Oil Boom Faces Economic Headwinds Despite Major Discovery
Suriname’s GranMorgu project, a $10.5 billion offshore development by TotalEnergies and APA, targets 760 million barrels and is projected to generate $26 billion in revenue. The field is slated for commissioning in 2028, roughly twice the timeline Guyana achieved for its Stabroek Block....
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CYRIL’S ARMY: Ramaphosa’s Decision to Deploy the SANDF Is Deeply Flawed. Here’s Why
President Cyril Ramaphosa announced the withdrawal of roughly 700 South African soldiers from the MONUSCO mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo, ending a 27‑year peace‑keeping presence. He simultaneously ordered the South African National Defence Force to support the police...
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MONETARY POLICY: Sarb Proposes Major Reform — Ditching Prime Lending Rate for Repo Rate
The South African Reserve Bank (Sarb) has released a consultation paper proposing to scrap the prime lending rate (PLR) and use the repo rate, known as the SARB policy rate (SPR), as the benchmark for loan pricing. The PLR currently...
Iran Launches Navy Drills To 'Control' Strait of Hormuz
On February 16, 2026, Iran announced a series of naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, framing them as a move to “control” the strategic waterway. The drills follow the U.S. Navy’s decision to station a second aircraft carrier in...
Is Canada Turning Into a Chinese Proxy?
Canada announced a multi‑billion‑dollar shift to fund domestic defense manufacturing, moving away from traditional purchases from U.S. defense firms. The policy signals a growing rift in the historically close Canada‑U.S. security partnership. Officials framed the move as a boost for...
Bitcoin No Longer Acting Like “Digital Gold” Because Its Correlation with Physical Gold, USD Collapsed
Bitcoin’s correlation with gold and the U.S. dollar has collapsed to near zero, while its link to the Nasdaq 100 has risen to +0.35‑0.6 in 2025‑early 2026. The asset now behaves more like a high‑beta tech risk factor than the...
Russia Rattled by America’s Nuclear Move in Armenia
The United States and Armenia signed a nuclear cooperation agreement on February 9, committing to American modular reactor technology for Armenia's next plant. Moscow responded with a public backlash, accusing the U.S. of untested designs and offering lucrative financial and infrastructure...
Unemployment Rate up a Tad to 5% in January, Higher Rise for Females
India’s unemployment rate ticked up to 5 % in January, a modest rise from 4.8 % in December. The increase was driven primarily by a sharper jump in female joblessness, which reached 5.6 % versus 4.8 % for men. Urban unemployment climbed to 7 %...
Govt Plans ‘Champion CPSEs’ for Viksit Bharat by 2047, NITI Aayog Roadmap Soon
India is preparing a roadmap to create ‘champion’ central public sector enterprises (CPSEs) that will drive economic growth and technological advancement toward a developed nation status by 2047. The plan, drafted by NITI Aayog in coordination with the finance ministry,...
Ireland Leads Charge Against Biggest EU Economies Forming Elite Club
Ireland’s finance minister warned that the newly‑formed “E6” club of Europe’s six biggest economies could sideline smaller states as it pushes ahead on financial‑market integration, euro promotion and defence spending. The E6 – Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and...
Hungary Seeks Croatian Help As Russian Oil Flows Via Ukraine Halted
Hungary and Slovakia have formally asked Croatia to permit Russian crude to flow through the Adria pipeline after the Ukrainian segment of the Druzhba pipeline was shut down following Russian strikes. The two countries cite an EU sanctions exemption that...
UK Bank Bosses Plan to Set up Visa and Mastercard Alternative Amid Trump Fears
UK bank leaders are convening to launch a sovereign payments network, DeliveryCo, as an alternative to Visa and Mastercard. The initiative, backed by City funders and the Bank of England, aims to mitigate risks from potential US political actions, such...
Gold Overtakes Major Currencies as Dollar Reserve Share Plummets
⚠️The US Dollar's role in global reserves is FALLING: USD share in global currency reserves dropped to ~40%, the lowest in at least 25 years. This is down from ~58% a decade ago. During the same period, gold’s share has risen from 16%...
Dalio's Stage 6: 5 Stocks for the New World Order
Ray Dalio says the world order has broken down. His “Stage 6” post went viral on X. What does that mean for markets? I mapped his framework to 5 stocks positioned for trade wars, tech controls, rearmament, energy shocks & gold. Here’s the playbook: https://t.co/FrP3YuOJA9
Lower Inflation Narrative Clashes with Digital Asset Community
"Seeing lower inflation is a narrative violation for many people in the digital asset space." @ramahluwalia https://t.co/mCyinRw3Uv
2025 Profitability Snapshot: Sector Returns & Excess Gains
In my sixth data update, I look at business profitability in 2025, across sectors, industries and regions, scaled to revenues (profit margins) and to invested capital (accounting returns). I use the latter to compute and compare excess returns. https://t.co/L3PDmph4VA
US Tech Dominance Fades as Global Rotation Shifts
This chart captures the 2 most important themes in the Stockmarket right now. 1. Global vs US rotation 2. Top in tech stocks For the past 17-years US Tech stocks have dominated global markets, but that is starting to change... https://t.co/6DhUXusR6C
Investors Shift From S&P 500 to Alternatives, Gains Accelerate
Rotation away from S&P500 (flat on the year) into other assets like foreign stocks, US value, etc up 10-15% seems to be accelerating...
Venezuelan Bolivar Plummets 87%, Becomes World’s Worst Currency
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by over 87% against the USD in the past year. IT’S TIME TO DUMP THE BOLIVAR AND REPLACE IT WITH THE US DOLLAR. https://t.co/dHtPzNew81
Trump's Presidency Keeps Oil Prices Higher, OPEC+ Cuts Production
The best—only?—argument that Trump is bearish for oil prices is that OPEC+ wouldn't have hiked crude production as aggressively last year in a world in which Harris was sitting in the White House.