Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Warning Shots Off Yemen Underscore Ongoing Gulf of Aden Security Risks
A merchant vessel near Aden, Yemen, encountered armed skiffs that fired warning shots, later identified as a local militia rather than Houthi forces or pirates. The UK Maritime Trade Operations downgraded the event to suspicious activity after confirming no direct fire at the ship. The incident underscores persistent security volatility in the Gulf of Aden despite a recent lull in Red Sea attacks following a 2025 Houthi cease‑fire. Maritime authorities continue to advise heightened vigilance and adherence to Best Management Practices.
Fears that Basel III Regulations Could Penalise Africa
The Basel III regulatory package, delayed to a full 2027 rollout, tightens capital quality, leverage and liquidity requirements for banks worldwide. African banks risk higher capital costs because their sovereign debt is risk‑weighted more heavily, potentially limiting credit to the...
Mostly Holding Last Week's Impressive Gains
U.S. Treasury bonds extended last week’s rally by a few basis points in early domestic trading, though the advance faded later in the session. Market participants attribute part of the prior week’s rise to defensive positioning ahead of a three‑day...
Zambia’s Copper Industry Expands Amid Rising Global Demand and Investment
Global demand for copper, driven by AI, renewable energy and electric vehicles, is spurring a rapid expansion of Zambia’s mining sector. Since 2022, more than $12 billion has been poured into the industry, lifting 2024 output by roughly eight percent to...
Business Inflation Expectations Return to Pre‑Pandemic Levels
Two different measures of business inflation expectations have essentially returned to pre-pandemic levels. The Atlanta Fed survey (dark line), which asks businesses how much they expect their own unit costs to change, is back at 2%—right where it was in 2019....
UK Unemployment Hits Highest Level Since 2021 – Will Interest Rate Cuts Follow?
The UK's unemployment rate rose to 5.2% in the three months to December 2025, the highest level since 2021, while wage growth slowed to 4.2% and job vacancies remained flat. Morgan Stanley research shows AI is already reshaping the labour market,...
Sarbananda Sonowal Hails PM Modi’s Trade Push, Calls It Break From Congress Era
Union Minister Sarbananda Sonowal praised Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s trade agenda, saying it marks a decisive break from the Congress era of policy paralysis. He highlighted nine free‑trade agreements signed since 2014 that give India preferential access to 38 developed economies and...
Japan Sees the Writing on the Wall
Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party captured a two‑thirds majority in the lower house, giving Prime Minister Fumio Takahashi a strong personal mandate and near‑total legislative control. The win enables swift policy action, including the start of constitutional amendment proceedings to...
As Rwanda’s Mineral Exports Surge, Trade Deficit Narrows
Rwanda’s mineral exports jumped 46.2% in 2025, driven by soaring tin, tungsten and tantalum prices and increased mechanised mining. The surge helped narrow the country’s trade deficit from $3 billion to $2.7 billion, with raw tin even achieving a positive balance with...
Somalia Cleared to Adopt EAC E-Passport, Envoy Says
Somalia has been granted official authorization to adopt and print the East African Community (EAC) e‑Passport, a key step in its regional integration. The decision was handed to Somalia’s Minister of Internal Security and the Director‑General of Immigration in Dar...
Despite Reset in India–US Relations, New Delhi Retains Commitment to Strategic Hedging
India and the United States announced a trade deal that lowers Indian export tariffs from 25% to 18% and removes the extra 25% levy on Russian crude. In return, New Delhi has pledged to buy $500 billion worth of U.S. goods,...
SPY Poised to Break November Range Amid Key Data
Is it finally the week $SPY breaks this range? Stuck here since November. Reports scheduled this week: - U.S. Trade Deficit Report (Thu) - GDP (Fri) - Inflation Report (Fri) - Consumer Sentiment (Fri)
Guyana Gains as Venezuela's Maduro Falls, Boosting Investment
Guyana is the biggest winner from Maduro's ouster in Venezuela. "It removes the biggest barrier for foreign investment," said CSIS's Henry Ziemer Lower risk premium, faster development, higher upside. https://t.co/1Tpj1OK8dp #oil #Guyana #Exxon #geopolitics #energy
Mexico Tourism Hit All‑Time High in 2025
Mexico's tourism sector reached an all‑time high in 2025 with 98.2 million international visitors, a 13.6% rise over 2024 and the largest total ever recorded. Foreign‑exchange earnings climbed to $34.99 billion, while overnight stays increased 6.1% to 47.8 million. The record underscores strong...
TLT Seen as Lower High, Still Hating Treasuries
I think I might be the only person in the world who still hates US Treasuries here. $TLT is just another lower high imo until proven wrong.
Chinese State Banks Boost FX Securities by $90B Monthly
Notable acceleration in the fx securities book of the Chinese state banks (And their reverse repo/ other funding of global financial institutions) in January -- consistent with the $90b monthly increase in the reported fx balance sheet https://t.co/PNDncW2w2s
Africa’s Trade Blocs Were Designed to Unite Continent: Four Reasons They Haven’t Delivered
The African Union’s 2019 African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) was built on eight regional economic communities, yet integration progress remains sluggish. A new analysis identifies four core obstacles: lingering colonial dependencies, the predominance of informal cross‑border trade, the tendency...
U.S. Corn Inspections Surpass Expectations, Soy Exports to China Strong
🇺🇸Last week's U.S. corn inspections easily beat all trade expectations (though they weren't a weekly record). FYI the previous week's corn volume was hiked significantly. Soy inspections were near the top end of estimates - 57% of the beans were...
Mistaking Short‑Term Labor Shortage for Full Employment Undermines Jobs
I disagree, but I don't think David is alone in this. To me, the biggest risk of confusing a temporary labor supply shortage that drives up inflation with full employment was that it would undermine actual full employment. We are...
French Urea Imports Surge in 2H 2025
France’s urea imports surged to 1.15 million tonnes in the July‑December 2025 period, up from 842,000 tonnes a year earlier, as buyers rushed to stock ahead of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). December shipments more than doubled the three‑year monthly...
IEA Paris Meeting Tests Net‑Zero Shift Against US Oil Priorities
For energy policy making, a key week in Paris as @IEA energy officials gather Feb 18-19 for a biennial ministerial meeting. The IEA’s drift toward net-zero advocacy and overtures to China will be tested as US officials push to a return...
Swiss Market Hits Record High as US Stocks Slide
Switzerland is hitting a new all-time high again today as U.S. stocks break down to new 6-month lows relative to European stocks. https://t.co/z6UH4K1Vfo
Indian Rice Exporter Seals 5,000-Tonne US Deal: IREF
A member of the Indian Rice Exporters Federation (IREF) has secured a contract to ship 5,000 tonnes of basmati rice to a United States buyer. The agreement arrives shortly after the India‑US trade pact lowered tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to...
Nowcast IQ Predicts US Growth Despite Market Pessimism
A few of our weekly inputs have come in for US growth. We continue to rebound hard cyclically. EURUSD down, US assets (soon) up, and ISM PMI towards 60 by summer. Our Nowcast IQ is telling a VERY contrarian story to...
Chinese AI Firms Double, Hitting $35B—West Should Follow
china’s two ai model company minimax and zai have grown 2x in public markets in the last month they’re now $30-35b companies surely that should prompt western labs to go public already
Low-Value Imports Upend E.U. Ecommerce
EU consumer demand for low‑value imports is reshaping the region’s ecommerce landscape. In 2025, 5.9 billion parcels valued at €150 or less entered the bloc, representing 98% of import volume but less than 5% of total value. Roughly one‑third of EU...
EURUSD Retreats to Fib Level as Longs Surge
$EURUSD has pulled back from its failed run on 1.20 a few weeks back - aligned to a 38.2% Fib of the 2008 to 2022 bear wave. Meanwhile, net speculative futures positioning has jumped this past week to its heaviest net-long...
Fed Rarely Cuts Rates During >8% Nominal Growth
"The Federal Reserve has cut rates only a handful of times when nominal growth was greater than 8 per cent and most of those instances were in the 1970s." Richard Bernstein @RBAdvisors in the FT https://t.co/vzNnkKmGpY
World Briefs | Putin Ally Warns European Powers over Seizure of Russian Vessels
Russia’s navy chief warned European powers of retaliation if Russian vessels are seized, underscoring heightened maritime tensions amid over 30,000 sanctions. Rosatom announced it has freed Siemens from the Hungarian Paks II nuclear contract and is scouting replacement equipment. Despite U.S....
Trump's Shadow Stalls Power Investment, Creating AI Bottleneck
As the dark shadow of Trump fell over the US power sector & the highly effective IRA, investment in power generation plateaued in 2024. Well-time to create a power bottleneck for AI. More on this in the Chartbook Top Link...
How Rising Costs Affect Home Affordability
Housing affordability remains a pressing concern, with 65% of U.S. households unable to afford a median-priced new home in 2026. Elevated mortgage rates amplify the impact of even modest home‑price increases, pushing more families out of the market. The National...
The Politics of Interpretation: Who Governs the Korean DMZ?
The United Nations Command (UNC) and South Korea are locked in a legal dispute over who can approve access to the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). While the 1953 Armistice assigns entry authority to the UNC commander, Seoul’s National Assembly is...
New Projections Quiet Bond Vigilantes, Ease Debt Fears
New US deficit and growth projections ""suggest a quiet period ahead for bond vigilantes and others who hand-wring over the unsustainable nature of the US debt and the inevitable market revolt – the Godot for which they have waited impatiently...
Five Ways AI Impacts Geopolitical Risk in Latin America
The episode outlines five ways AI will reshape geopolitical risk in Latin America: massive middle‑class job disruption as AI replaces outsourced service roles; a new extractive dependence on foreign data‑center investments that may boost the economy but keep profits abroad;...
Dalio Warns CBDCs Erase Privacy, Enable Political Control
As @RayDalio, founder of the world's LARGEST hedge fund told @TuckerCarlson on central bank digital currencies: "There will be no privacy... all transactions will be known... and if you're politically disfavored, you could be shut off." https://t.co/3H4Lcz4ysb
Critical Days Ahead: Watch Core Risk Signals
NEW POST: - RISKS. - Core signals to watch. - Volatility and Contagion. “The next few days will be absolutely critical to monitor…” 🔗Link in profile. https://t.co/qgBEZWrB8Z
International Business Briefs | Kennedy Wilson to Go Private in $1.5bn CEO-Led Deal
Kennedy Wilson agreed to a $1.5 bn CEO‑led buyout, offering a 10.2% premium and targeting a Q2 2026 close. Genuine Parts announced a split into two publicly traded entities—Automotive Parts Group and Industrial Parts Group—set to finalize in Q1 2027 after an activist‑driven settlement. Blackstone‑backed...
Breaking News: Canadian CPI Eases From 3-Month High, USD/CAD Extends Gain...
Canada’s annual CPI slipped to 2.3% in January 2026, easing from a three‑month peak of 2.4% and landing just below market forecasts. The trimmed‑mean core rate fell to 2.4%, the lowest level since April 2021, indicating waning underlying price pressure....
America Needs to Get Creative on Hong Kong
The United States condemned the 20‑year sentence handed to Hong Kong activist Jimmy Lai but its traditional punitive toolkit—sanctions and revoking Hong Kong’s special trade status—has done little to restore the city’s autonomy. Lawmakers are now proposing legislation that could...
US‑Iran Oil Talks Conclude Second Round, Third Round Pending
OIL MARKET: The 2nd round of US-Iran talks has concluded, and Iranian media says there would be a 3rd round of negotiations in the “near future” after both sides consult with their respective governments.
Rate Moves Aren’t Driven by Current Data, ADP Shows
Big mistake is assuming move in rates is about current economic data. Reaction to ADP a good example
GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Short-Term Trend Turns Negative Below 210.00 Handle
GBP/JPY slipped below the 210.00 psychological level, trading around 207.28 and marking a near two‑month low. The decline follows weaker UK labour‑market data that has pushed market consensus toward two Bank of England rate cuts this year, with the first...
Holiday Inn Owner IHG Hopes World Cup Can Kickstart US Recovery
InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) is counting on the 2026 FIFA World Cup to revive U.S. travel after three consecutive quarters of declining room revenues. U.S. RevPAR fell 2% in Q4, lagging rivals Hilton and Marriott, while growth in Europe, the...
Antofagasta Profit Rockets 52% as Record Copper Prices Offset Weaker Output
Chilean miner Antofagasta reported a 52% surge in 2025 core profit to $5.2 bn, driven by record copper prices that rose over 40% last year. Despite slightly lower output, the company lifted capital spending to $3.7 bn, mainly for the Centinela concentrator...
Iran and Russia Clash over China Oil Supply Rivalry
The oil ministers of Iran and Russia met today. Contrary to popular belief, Moscow and Tehran are now bitter rivals in the oil market as the size of the black market for crude shrinks. Both compete to supply China. (My earlier @Opinion...
Gulf Carriers Will Absorb Half of All New Air Cargo Capacity
Air cargo capacity is set to outpace demand in 2026, with Gulf carriers slated to absorb roughly half of the new wide‑body lift. Aevean forecasts about 1.7 million tonnes of fresh capacity for the Middle East and South Asia, dwarfing the...
Conflicting Policies, Confused Investors, and the Weak Dollar
The United States continues to dominate global growth, driven by an AI-fueled expansion, yet its flagship currency is unusually weak. Markets are now pricing U.S. policy uncertainty on par with economies that lack a reserve currency. Conflicting fiscal and monetary...
Baby Boomer Spending Helps Drive up Inflation
Australia’s Reserve Bank highlighted an unexpected surge in private demand, driven largely by heightened household spending from the baby‑boomer cohort. The increase in consumer‑durable price growth reinforced this trend, prompting the RBA to raise the official cash rate by 0.25%....
North Korean Won Plummets, Ranks Third Worst Globally
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the North Korean won ranks as the WORLD'S 3RD WORST currency. The won has depreciated by 41% against the USD over the past year. PLIGHT OF THE WON = ONE OF THE WORLD’S MOST UNREPORTED STORIES. https://t.co/7leiebPd5D
ECB Favors High-Debt Nations, Sidelining Low-Debt Germany
Low-debt countries like Germany are hopelessly outnumbered at the ECB. That's why ECB policy is inexorably drifting to help high-debt countries at the expense of low debt ones. So no surprise BuBa President Nagel supports Eurobonds. Going with the flow......