Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Dollar Leads as Markets Seek Guidance From Fed Minutes
The U.S. dollar edged higher as markets awaited the Fed’s January minutes, looking for signals on the timing of the next rate cut. In the United Kingdom, CPI eased to 3.0% year‑on‑year, reinforcing expectations of a BoE rate reduction in March, while the RBNZ kept its policy rate unchanged but projected a slightly higher path. Speculation about ECB President Lagarde’s possible departure added political risk to euro‑area policy. Meanwhile, US durable‑goods orders slipped and Japan’s exports surged, highlighting divergent global economic trends.
India Keen to Diversify Crude Oil, Coking Coal Sources; Eyes High-Quality US Supplies: Piyush Goyal
India’s commerce minister Piyush Goyal said New Delhi will diversify crude oil and coking‑coal supplies, targeting high‑quality U.S. coal to reduce reliance on a few geographies. He highlighted a $100 billion aircraft demand from the United States over the next five...
Isabel Schnabel: Made in Europe
In a February 2026 lecture, ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel argued that Europe’s narrative of decline is misleading. She highlighted the continent’s high quality of life, strong institutions, and social protections as foundations for future growth. Schnabel emphasized that...
Morning Market Brief
In this Morning Market Brief, Lawrence Fuller notes that markets steadied after a sharp morning dip, buoyed by positive news on Iran nuclear negotiations, reducing geopolitical risk. He highlights the pervasive impact of AI-driven disruption across sectors, especially retail, where...
Ground View: How Industry Leaders Are Shaping Pakistan’s Mining Future
The Pakistan Mineral Investment Forum (PMIF) will gather industry leaders in Islamabad to spotlight the country’s world‑class copper, gold, and critical mineral deposits, most notably the revived Reko Diq project. While the geology is undisputed, the article argues that mining...
4 Trends That Will Define the Commercial Real Estate Industry in 2026
The commercial real estate (CRE) sector is pivoting toward integrated digital, wellbeing, resilience, and sustainability strategies in 2026. Owners will shift from reactive management to continuous, data‑driven optimization of HVAC, energy, and space utilization. Tenant experience becomes a core differentiator,...
China Gives Lithuania Punishing Silent Treatment over Taiwan
In 2021 Lithuania permitted a Taiwanese representative office to use the name "Taiwan" rather than "Taipei," directly challenging Beijing's One‑China policy. China answered not with public sanctions but with a silent diplomatic freeze, withdrawing embassy staff and removing Lithuania from...
AD Ports Joins Cameroon’s Douala New Dry Bulk Terminal Concession
UAE‑based AD Ports Group has entered a 30‑year concession with Africa Ports Development to design, build and operate a new dry‑bulk terminal at Cameroon’s Port of Douala. The partnership gives AD Ports an effective 51% economic stake and commits roughly...
Navigating Liquidity Traps in a Fragmented World
The episode examines how "trapped cash" has evolved from a balance‑sheet inefficiency into a geopolitical risk as capital controls, ESG mandates, and tax treaty changes fragment global liquidity. It outlines the macro drivers—FX shortages, regulatory black‑lists, and new cross‑border pooling...
China Quietly Amasses Dollar Reserves Despite Official Narrative
Anyone who trusts official Chinese reserve data is a fool. The blind spot in the official narrative about China "dropping the dollar" is China's continued SHADOW dollar reserve accumulation, which looks like the below chart👇 The big January increase in state banks'...
Costamare Locks in $940m with 12 Forward Charters
Costamare secured nearly $1 bn of fresh contracted revenue by forward‑chartering 12 containerships, generating about $940 m in incremental revenue. The deals lift fleet employment to 96% for 2026 and 92% for 2027, expanding the company’s contracted revenue backlog to roughly $3.4 bn...
Asia Daily: February 18, 2026
The episode reviews key developments across Asia, highlighting China's 2026 economic agenda focused on domestic demand and tech self‑reliance, U.S. accusations of a secret Chinese nuclear test, and the PLA's push to overhaul English training. It also covers political shifts...
Energy Transition Underpins Dry Bulk Sector
Electric‑vehicle sales have surged nearly 700% this decade, driving a rapid rise in spodumene shipments from Australia to China and doubling bulk volumes since 2023. Panamax vessels now carry almost half of the 7 million tonnes of dry bulk moved last...
Equity Volatility Spike Defies Traditional Buying Signals
Good read on *market stress* from GS: “Our vol stress index closed the week registering 9 out of 10. Historically, readings of >9 have been buying opportunities, but this time ‘feels different’ as the increase in panic has not come with...
Critical Minerals and Energy Drive Global Economic Competitiveness
Very good meeting with 🇺🇸 US Assistant Secretary of State for Economic, Energy & Business Affairs @CalebOrr__ We discussed developments in global energy markets, the importance of critical minerals for energy & economic security and energy’s role in boosting competitiveness https://t.co/Z4YDq3jEJG
Glencore Doubles Down on Copper, Keeps M&A in Play
Glencore has secured a land‑access agreement with Gecamines that extends the Kamoto Copper Company’s mine life into the mid‑2040s and unlocks additional ore zones, enabling the asset to target 300,000 tonnes of copper annually. The deal is a cornerstone of...
Dollar Holds Firm Despite Weak Conviction and Recent Lows
US Dollar is Mostly Firmer, amid Weak Conviction: The US dollar was sold to new session lows against several currency pairs late in the North American afternoon yesterday, but there has been little follow-through today. The greenback is firmer against…...
Upcoming UST Auctions May Cool Rally, Create Opportunity
Busy UST auction schedule in the next eight days could finally slowdown the rally a bit and offer an opportunity. Brand new 20s ($16B) today, new 30y TIPS tomorrow ($9B), and regular size/schedule 2s, 5s and 7s next week.
S. Korea Seeks to Reinstate No-Fly Zone Under Suspended 2018 Inter-Korean Military Pact
South Korea announced it will seek to reinstate the no‑fly zone over the Demilitarized Zone that was established under the 2018 inter‑Korean military agreement. Unification Minister Chung Dong‑young disclosed the plan after earlier apologising for civilian‑operated drones that entered North...
2024 Forecast Missed: Iran Tensions Now Escalate
Some of my armchair geopolitical analysis from 2024 where I expected a cooling of tensions and no conflict with Iran. Circumstances are very different today.
USD Rebounds but Short‑term Conviction Remains Weak
$USD recovered from the late sell-off in North America yesterday. It is trading firmer against most G10 currencies, but short-term participants seem to lack much conviction. Key US data and SCOTUS still lie ahead. See https://t.co/Ax3iZrTLT7 https://t.co/01M5ylxWt7
DHT VLCC Clocks $90,000 a Day on One-Year Deal
DHT Holdings has secured a one‑year charter for its 2012‑built VLCC DHT Opal at $90,000 per day, starting this month. The rate underscores how tight the market has become for the world’s largest crude carriers, with Gulf‑China spot earnings now...
Markets Surge Higher After V‑Shape Recovery—Implications Ahead
The markets are extending higher after yesterday's V-shaped recovery - here's what it means 👇
ECB Yield Caps Mask Fiscal Fragility, Exit Bond Markets
ECB yield caps give the illusion of fiscal sustainability, but it's just an illusion. A real shock like Russia's invasion of Ukraine shows high-debt countries have no money to help Ukraine. For the sake of Europe, the ECB needs to...
Will Russia (and Iran) Be Forced to ‘Restore Order’ in the Caucasus? Part 2: The March to Central Asia
The article examines how Azerbaijan’s new rail, gas and power corridor through Armenia is reshaping the Caucasus‑Central Asia nexus, while the United States seeks a 74% stake in the infrastructure for five decades. Moscow and Tehran face pressure to intervene...
Aging Populations Strain Southern Europe; ECB Must Relinquish Yield Caps
Once you reach 60, your conditional life expectancy is another 20+ years. Problem in Southern Europe is that relatively few people work, so population aging becomes very expensive for the state. That only gets fixed if the ECB steps back...
US Energy Chief Declares Net‑Zero 2050 Impossible
Net-zero by 2050 has “zero point zero chance of happening,” says US Energy Secretary Chris Wright ahead of the biennial IEA ministerial meeting in Paris. (This ministerial meeting will mark a turning point in global energy policy making across industrialised...
Official Statistics: Forecasts for the UK Economy: February 2026
HM Treasury published its monthly "Forecasts for the UK economy" comparison on 18 February 2026. The 27‑page PDF presents short‑term forecasts for 2026‑27 and financial year 2025‑26/2026‑27, alongside medium‑term projections through 2030 and FY 2029‑30. The data reflect only the views of a selected...
ZEPA Launches Battery-Electric Container Handling Standards, Load Tool
The Zero Emission Port Alliance (ZEPA) introduced a load‑profile explorer, transition guide, and updated voluntary standards to accelerate battery‑electric container‑handling equipment adoption. The standards aim to reduce design fragmentation and improve interoperability, while total‑cost‑of‑ownership data shows electric gear remains pricier...
Heads Up: US Treasury to Release TIC Data Later Today
The US Treasury will publish its latest International Capital (TIC) data, showing foreign investors holding a record $9.36 trillion of Treasury securities. China’s holdings slipped to roughly $683 billion, the lowest level since 2008, while Japan remains the top holder with about...
Piero Cipollone: Digital Euro
ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone outlined the digital euro roadmap, confirming that the current preparation phase began in November 2025 and a pilot is slated for mid‑2027. The ECB aims for a first issuance in 2029, contingent on EU legislators...
ECB and ONCE Foundation Launch Collaboration to Ensure Digital Euro Is Accessible for Everyone
The European Central Bank has signed a collaboration agreement with Spain’s ONCE Foundation to make the digital euro app universally accessible, especially for people with disabilities, older adults, and those with limited digital skills. The foundation will provide technical advice,...
Egypt's M3 Surge Drives Inflation Beyond Target
Egypt's inflation rate is 11.9%/yr. Egypt's money supply (M3) is growing at 22.7%, ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate range from 13.1%/yr-17.1%/yr, consistent with hitting its inflation target range of 5%/yr-9%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/V2EApGpMCY
Alberto Naudon: Chile's Economic Outlook
Alberto Naudon, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Chile, highlighted that 2025 delivered stronger‑than‑expected growth, with non‑mining activity expanding close to 3% and gross fixed capital formation rising about 7% driven by mining and energy projects. Inflation accelerated early...
Defunding the Taliban without Starving the Afghan People
The U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee approved the bipartisan No Tax Dollars for Terrorists Act, aiming to prevent American taxpayer money from funding the Taliban or affiliated terrorist groups. The legislation follows a SIGAR report indicating that roughly $3.83 billion of...
Book Review: How Africa Works by Joe Studwell
Joe Studwell’s new book “How Africa Works” asks why the continent remains poor and outlines policies that could accelerate growth, emphasizing agriculture, demographics, and the “enclave effect” of resource extraction. He profiles four early‑movers—Botswana, Mauritius, Ethiopia, and Rwanda—showing how targeted...
Landlocked Zimbabwe Flags Fraud to IMO After Tanker’s Bogus Registry Link
Zimbabwe, a landlocked nation without a maritime authority, has reported a false flag registration for the aframax tanker Range Vale to the International Maritime Organization. The vessel, built in 2005, has cycled through bogus registries in Comoros, Zimbabwe and currently...
Managing Systemic Supply Chain Risk to the U.S. Economy From Trade Concentration and Geopolitical Conflict
The RAND report examines systemic supply‑chain risks facing the U.S. economy stemming from trade concentration and geopolitical conflict. It highlights how reliance on a narrow set of foreign suppliers can magnify disruption impacts. The analysis calls for coordinated public‑private strategies...
Elliott Wave Update of USDCAD – February 18th, 2026
USDCAD is climbing as Canada’s latest inflation data came in below expectations, reviving expectations of further Bank of Canada rate cuts. The softer CPI reading narrows the interest‑rate gap with the United States, making the U.S. dollar more attractive and...
Elliott Wave Update of USDJPY – February 18th, 2026
USD/JPY edged higher this week as traders anticipate the Bank of Japan’s continued policy normalization. The pair’s modest rise reflects expectations of incremental BOJ rate hikes and a narrowing US‑Japan interest‑rate gap. An Elliott Wave update highlights a key resistance...
Shadow Fleet Watchdog Publishes Treasure Trove of Tanker Intel
TankerTrackers.com, a leading open‑source monitor of the maritime shadow fleet, released a massive free dataset covering 1,469 active black‑listed tankers. The platform disclosed daily oil volumes on the four biggest trade lanes, led by Iran‑to‑China at 1.64 million barrels per day,...
Elliott Wave Update of EURUSD – February 18th, 2026
The EUR/USD pair slipped modestly this week as markets anticipate Friday's core PCE inflation report. Traders are closely watching the hourly chart, which now displays a nascent corrective Elliott Wave formation. The update suggests the pair could test near‑term support...
FTSE 100 Live: Inflation Falls to Near Year-Low; BAE Leads Stock Rally
UK inflation eased to a near‑year low, with the CPI falling to 3% year‑on‑year in January 2026, down from 3.4% in December. The slowdown, driven by lower petrol, airfares and food prices, has revived expectations that the Bank of England...
The Biggest Supply Chain Risks of 2026 (and How to Navigate Them)
2026 opens with heightened supply‑chain volatility as markets grapple with tight capacity, an early Chinese New Year, and the Red Sea’s tentative reopening. Geopolitical fragmentation, lingering trade‑policy uncertainty and economic instability force shippers to rethink tender timing and rate‑locking strategies....
How Japan Should Respond to Trump’s Project Vault
The Trump administration’s Project Vault earmarks about $12 billion to create a U.S. Strategic Critical Minerals Reserve, a public‑private partnership that purchases, stores and manages a diversified portfolio of essential raw materials. Japan’s current METI‑JOGMEC approach evaluates projects individually, which could...
Overseas Investors Tap Brakes on JGB Selling Post-Election
The Liberal Democratic Party’s landslide victory in Japan’s snap election has steadied the government‑bond market, halting a sharp rise in long‑term yields. Foreign institutional investors, who had been offloading JGBs, have paused sales and begun modest buying. Domestic investors are...
APSEZ Signs MoU with French Port to Deepen Cooperation on Trade Facilitation
Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with France’s Port of Marseille Fos to deepen cooperation on trade facilitation, port innovation and energy transition. The pact will create an IMEC Ports Club to coordinate the...
India–US Deal Under Fire as Kisan Bodies Call It ‘Anti-Farmer’, Urge President to Stop It
The Samyukt Kisan Morcha (SKM) has condemned the interim India‑US trade agreement, branding it anti‑farmer and urging President Droupadi Murmu to halt its signing. The coalition demanded the removal of the commerce minister and the IAS officer who signed a...
Seatrade Maritime Club Roundtable to Address Critical Industry Challenges at CMA Shipping 2026
The Seatrade Maritime Club will host an exclusive, closed‑door roundtable at CMA Shipping 2026, gathering senior maritime executives for candid discussions under the Chatham House Rule. The three sessions will address geopolitical trade disruptions, electronic navigation threats such as GPS spoofing,...
Markets Don't Care About the Middle East
The episode explains why global financial markets largely ignore Middle‑East geopolitical turmoil, despite oil price spikes of about 10% this year. It argues that diversified oil production outside the region and modest growth forecasts mean investors see limited macro‑economic impact...