Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Fed Minutes Suggest Willingness To Hike If Inflation Not Tamed
The Federal Reserve’s February 2026 FOMC minutes reveal that most participants remain uneasy about inflation, which is still above the central bank’s 2% target. The minutes signal a willingness to raise rates again if price pressures are not curbed, underscoring a more hawkish tilt than previously hinted. The release also revisits the 1940s‑1950s Treasury‑Fed accord, noting how yield‑curve control once lowered borrowing costs but fueled double‑digit inflation. Analysts view the historical parallel as a cautionary backdrop for today’s policy calculus.
Fed Minutes Reveal Larger Faction Demanding Higher Cut Threshold
Minutes from the Fed's Jan. 27-28 meeting laid bare a lingering divide over where to set the bar for further rate cuts. In Fed speak, "some" is larger than "several" which means the group of "some" officials that includes those with...
How to Build Inflation-Proof Real Estate Strategies with Jose Pellicer, Co-Founder and Partner at Evonite
In this episode, hosts Aaron Cameron and Adam Powadiuk discuss how geopolitical turbulence is reshaping commercial real estate, with insights from Evonite co‑founder Jose Pellicer. Pellicer outlines a resilience‑focused, inflation‑protective investment thesis, emphasizing the strength of necessity‑based retail and food‑anchored...
World Order Collapses: Entering Stage 6 of Global Disorder
It’s official: The current world order has broken down. In my parlance, we are in the Stage 6 part of the Big Cycle in which there is great disorder arising from being in a period in which there are no rules,...
Op-Ed: How Canada and Mexico Can Align a Critical Minerals Strategy
Canada and Mexico are drafting a joint action plan on critical minerals, infrastructure and supply chains, slated for release in the second half of 2026. The framework targets non‑geological bottlenecks such as permitting, transport corridors, power supply, processing capacity and...
Putin Sees Prolonged War as Leverage, Feels Victorious
“President Vladimir V. Putin believes he is winning, military and intelligence officials from several Western countries said in recent days. And he is convinced that even if it takes 18 months to two years to complete his hold on the...
Scope Ratings Seeks Distinction by Incorporating Europe's Differences
Scope Ratings became the first European rating agency approved under the ECB's Eurosystem Credit Assessment Framework, allowing its ratings to be used as collateral in monetary‑policy operations. The firm differentiates itself by embedding the EU’s fragmented legal and market environments...
Mega‑Cap Weakness Could Drag Entire S&P Down
The reason this is important (even though it’s only a few stocks) is that the Mag 7 is so big that if they should fall they could well take the S&P 500 (cap-weighted) index with it. History shows (below) that...
TC Energy Forecasts Natural Gas Demand Surge Equivalent to Entire European Market
TC Energy projects North American natural‑gas demand will rise by 45 Bcf/d by 2035, a volume comparable to the entire European market. The surge is attributed to accelerating LNG exports, expanding power‑generation capacity, and heightened reliability requirements for distribution utilities. Midwest...
Multiple Crises, Stalled Talks, White House Impatience Signal Change
two conflicts. two stalled negotiations. one impatient white house. the next few weeks could look very different from today. @gzeromedia
S&P Adds $500B, Gold Climbs; PCE Inflation Watch
WHAT A DAY, the S&P 500 has gained around $500 BILLION in market cap, up 0.8%. The index is now up 0.3% YTD 📈 Gold is also trading higher, back above $5,000/oz, as global tensions start to escalate 😳 Mark your calendars...
‘No Landing’ Is Back In A Big Way
‘No landing’ has emerged as the prevailing global macro outlook, suggesting the economy will remain in a state of indefinite uncertainty rather than a clear recession or recovery. The author points to persistent inflation, aggressive AI investment, and AI‑induced job...
History’s Empire Cycle Reveals Today’s Global Power Shift
Empires rise. Empires peak. Empires fall. Medieval thinkers understood the structural forces behind power, decline, and transition. Those same cycles are shaping the world today. Understand the pattern. Know what comes next. Read more at davidmurrin.co.uk #Geopolitics #EmpireCycles #History #Strategy #GlobalPower
Geopolitical Tension Drives Gold Surge—Position Now
Gold is on the move🔥 As tensions in the Middle East rise and Iran escalates, markets are reacting and gold is back in focus When uncertainty rises, gold shines ✨ Big moves could be ahead. The question is… are you positioned? Trade Gold with...
CMA CGM Inks Order for Six Dual-Fuel LNG Ships with India Yard
CMA CGM has placed an order with India’s Cochin Shipyard for six 1,700‑TEU dual‑fuel LNG container vessels. The deal was announced during a New Delhi visit that also included a pledge to recruit an additional 1,500 seafarers, bringing the total Indian crew...
De-Dollarization Undermines US Military Financing Power
De-Dollarization Threatens US Military Power The dollar’s role in global trade is shrinking. As it loses value, I see us losing influence and even military strength, because our military depends on financing powered by the dollar. The markets are already showing...
Warren Targets Dimon for Help on Interest Rate Caps
Senator Elizabeth Warren wrote to JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon urging his public support for the Empowering States’ Rights to Protect Consumers Act, which would let states re‑impose credit‑card interest‑rate caps on national banks. The legislation seeks to restore the...
Isabel Schnabel: Fiscal Challenges Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty and Ageing Societies
Isabel Schnabel highlighted the euro area’s mounting fiscal pressures, noting that low debt levels often coincide with weak public investment. She examined Germany’s new defence and infrastructure package, showing it can lift GDP but also raise debt ratios under different...
India Takes on the Shadow Fleet (Bonus Video)
India's navy has begun seizing shadow‑fleet oil tankers within its exclusive economic zone, capturing three vessels since early February. The shadow fleet, a network of roughly 1,000 de‑commissioned tankers, moves 3‑4 million barrels of sanctioned crude daily from Russia, Iran...
Rates Spark: Pressures Rebuild for Long Dates
Equity volatility in the US is easing, opening the door for a near‑term rally in 10‑year euro swap rates that sit about 20 basis points below their January peak. Market participants expect a bear‑steepening move as the front end of...
France’s Very Low Inflation Rate Is a Major Challenge for Public Finances
France’s inflation fell to 0.3% year‑on‑year in January, the lowest level since 2016 and well below the euro‑area average of 1.7%. The drop, driven by falling manufactured‑goods and energy prices, leaves core inflation at just 0.7% and fuels criticism that...
Dow Jones Industrial Average Gains 200 Points as Fed Minutes Loom and Nvidia Rallies on Meta Deal
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 300 points, or 0.65%, as investors returned to equities ahead of the Federal Reserve’s January minutes. Nvidia surged over 2% after Meta announced an expanded AI‑chip partnership worth tens of billions, reinforcing Nvidia’s...
J.B. Hunt ‘a Little Bit More Positive’
J.B. Hunt’s CFO said demand is slightly stronger than early‑January expectations as truck capacity tightens, reflected in rising tender rejections and spot rates. Regulatory pressures on the driver pool and recent winter storms have limited supply, creating a modest but...
US Stocks: Trump Adviser Hassett Suggests New York Fed Researchers Be Punished for Tariffs Argument
Kevin Hassett, former Trump economic adviser, blasted a New York Fed research paper that argued tariffs mainly hurt American consumers, calling it "shoddy scholarship" and the worst paper in Fed history. He urged that the authors be disciplined for their...
Webinar: Why the Dollar’s 2026 Decline Will Be More Cyclical than Structural
Investors are questioning US asset allocations as the dollar begins 2026 on a weaker footing. A new ING webinar will examine whether the current sell‑off is driven by cyclical market dynamics rather than a deeper structural de‑dollarisation trend. Speakers will...
UNITE HERE Releases Report Showing Immigration Policies Are Devastating U.S. Tourism Industry
UNITE HERE’s new "Inhospitable" report links recent White House immigration crackdowns to a sharp downturn in U.S. tourism. The study documents more than 2.5 million fewer international visitors in 2025, a $1 billion drop in travel receipts, and 98,000 lost hospitality jobs....
Five US Policy Shifts Could Reshape Financial Markets
The Trump administration is advancing five domestic policy initiatives that touch credit, housing, monetary policy, corporate governance, and digital‑asset regulation. Proposed credit reforms would tighten loan underwriting, while housing changes could modify the mortgage interest deduction. Monetary officials hint at...
Equities Up, Trend Flattens Amid 4% Yield, Rotation
As for the markets, last week the Dow briefly reached the 50k milestone while the S&P 500 continued to hang out just below 7,000. The 10-year yield has been flirting with 4% again and the terminal rate for the Fed’s...
FOMC Minutes Reveal Split Views: Cut, Hold, or Hike
Key paragraph of the FOMC minutes from January. (I am honestly a bit confused by the 'minutes math.') The main takeaway is that there is considerable disagreement. Cut, hold, and (even possibly) hike all got a nod. https://t.co/eV9ldjldl1 https://t.co/K53g1yqKJ8
Mining Stocks Dominate TSXV’s Top Performers List
Metals and mining dominated the TSX Venture Exchange’s 2025 top‑performer list, with 48 of the 51 entries coming from the sector. Junior miners posted an average share‑price gain of 443% and a combined market capitalisation of $19.9 billion. Record liquidity supported...
FOMC Minutes Show Market‑Aligned Outlook, Fragile Jobs, Slowing Inflation
Few FOMC minutes takeaways: 1) Cmte basically in line with markets on major economic variables 2) Labor markets no longer outright weakening but remain fragile 3) Inflation decelerating as tariff passthru done, housing has downside (a misread on bad CPI method in Oct?) 1/...
Tariffs Fail: US Down to Five Aluminum Smelters
"U.S. import tariffs haven't been enough to stop the United States losing another aluminium smelter, leaving the country with just five primary metal production plants." 😲 https://t.co/T5U4nxglb0 https://t.co/EOQY3OwzE6
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Industrial Production
Industrial production rose 0.7% in January, outpacing the 0.4% forecast, and posted a 2.3% year‑over‑year gain. Utilities output surged 2.1% month‑over‑month, while mining slipped 0.2% and manufacturing climbed 0.6%. The index’s current level is at or below the start‑of‑recession threshold...
Mania Depression: Elites Stagnate, Borrowers Slip Further
FWIW - The sentiment data suggests its not a "boomcession" we're experiencing but a "maniapression." Those at the top can't put enough into the markets, while those at the bottom fall further and further behind on their loans.
NYC Deficit Sparks Mayor's Risky Corporate and Property Tax Plan
New York City faces a fiscal crisis –– a $5.4B budget deficit. Mayor Mamdani’s plan: tax the most profitable corporations or INCREASE PROPERTY TAXES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN DECADES. MAMDANI’S PLAN = A PLAN TO KILL NEW YORK’S ECONOMY. https://t.co/HKJXzJh4Cu
The 'Ex-America' Trade Is Off to a Roaring Start in 2026
Global equities have surged ahead of the U.S. market in 2026, with the MSCI EAFE up roughly 8% and the MSCI ACWI ex‑U.S. gaining about 8.5% year‑to‑date, while the S&P 500 is down 0.5%. Goldman Sachs notes this is the widest...
US Investors Turn Bearish on France as Macron Exits
US investors are gloomy on France as Macron era approaches its end https://t.co/a4q0NEuH3I via @WHorobin https://t.co/vhSuc9Ovr6
China’s Outward FDI Surpasses Inward, Gap Widens
Since the 2010s and BRI, Chinese FDI has matched or exceeded inward FDI, but now a really big gap is opening up. More at today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/DcgBB3hzww
S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 1500 Breadth Models – Yields Spreads – Fed Policy
The TrendInvestorPro page titled “S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 1500 Breadth Models – Yields Spreads – Fed Policy” is restricted to subscribers, offering no publicly available data or analysis. The site prompts users to log in or join, indicating...
Gold Rallies 13% as Tech Stocks Stumble
While the Magnificent Seven tech stocks have SUFFERED in 2026, GOLD IS UP over 13%. It's time to turn away from SILLY VALLEY. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/PZTIJFhPOp
Sector Rotation Timing Yields Asset‑rich Returns
The Great Rotation: From Growth to Asset Rich Value My job is timing sector rotation & picking the best stocks long/short within it. That & sizing up macro event risk & market structure support. That's how I could time the...
Defence Giant BAE Hails Record Sales as Workers Remain on Strike
BAE Systems announced record 2025 results, with sales rising 10% to £30.7 billion and pre‑tax profit climbing to £2.6 billion. The company highlighted a historic order backlog as global defence budgets surge amid geopolitical tension. Meanwhile, Unite union members at the Lancashire...
Markets Mirror Trump’s Shifting Policy Narratives
You just have to respect markets and the games they play Trump first term: Public is all about long Energy, short Solar.... Solar stocks go on an epic run Trump 2nd term: Tariffs going to crush International economies.... International stocks just thrashing...
UK Inflation Hits 2025 Low, Strengthening BoE Rate‑Cut Case
UK inflation slowed to its weakest level since March 2025, bolstering the case for an interest rate cut when the Bank of England meets next month https://t.co/yJqzpiJ61p via @irinaanghel12 @PhilAldrick https://t.co/a5Mov7Jkhv
Europe Is Squandering Its Leverage Over China
Europe is losing bargaining power with China as the continent’s growth stalls while Beijing posts a record trade surplus. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s upcoming China visit underscores the urgency, with Germany’s 2025 GDP expanding only 0.2% versus a $1.19 trillion Chinese surplus....
ECB Study Finds Tariffs Sparked Minor China Trade Diversion
Tariffs caused just a small China trade diversion, ECB study shows https://t.co/2xTwmZXdG6 via @weberalexander https://t.co/NfggkusEyQ
Successor Must Be Independent, Pro‑Europe After Surprise Resignation
Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau says his successor must be independent and committed to Europe after his early resignation gave President Emmanuel Macron a surprise opportunity to pick the next central bank chief https://t.co/VVGP1D9Dj6 via @WHorobin https://t.co/rmqeTU4qJ7
Death Tax? Property Tax? Four Ideas that Could Offset Inheritance Inequality in Australia
Australia faces a projected $5.4 trillion intergenerational wealth transfer over the next two decades, prompting concerns about entrenched inequality and reduced productivity. Economists argue that the current progressive income‑tax system is ill‑suited to address wealth that accumulates outside labour markets. Four...
USD Coils Near Key Levels, Breakout Imminent
US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Coils Between Key Levels – Breakout Looms https://t.co/CxUMkIN5mg $DXY Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/ILpuVkkqnw
Russia's Pipeline Strike Sparks Absurd Diesel Bans
Russia: bombs Ukraine, damages an oil pipeline to Europe. The collaborator regimes in Hungary and Slovakia: banning diesel shipments to Ukraine because Russia damaged the pipeline. The level of inhuman grotesque borders on stupid comedy.