Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
‘We Have some Work to Do’: Nasdaq Stockholm’s President on Losing Klarna to New York
Nasdaq Stockholm’s president warned that the exchange must act after Klarna chose a New York listing, a move that underscores growing competition from U.S. markets. Last year Nasdaq Stockholm and its Nordic peers captured 60% of Europe’s equity capital‑market activity, raising about €7 bn through IPOs and follow‑ons. The loss of Klarna, a marquee fintech, highlights the fragility of the Nordic ecosystem’s ability to retain high‑profile tech listings. The president called for strategic reforms to keep future offerings on the region’s exchanges.
Turkey Launches Ramadan Food Price Crackdown as Inflation Anger Intensifies
Turkey’s government has banned chicken exports and launched a nationwide crackdown on "exorbitant" food prices as Ramadan begins. Trade inspectors are sweeping markets for hoarding and misleading practices, with fines up to TL 1.8 million for violations. Food inflation is running at...
Rising Capex May Curb Buybacks, Pressure Valuations
With credit spreads low and profit margins seemingly on the rise, valuations seem OK at current levels. These two variables are important drivers for the equity risk premium, which is currently at 4.0% according to my version of the DCF...
Euphoria Unwinds, Quality Assets Outshine Speculation
I have mentioned this chart a few times in the past, but it does really go to show just how extreme things got the last few years. The chart is SPX/(UNRATE^2)*USIRYY*USINTR Unravelling things after extreme euphoria is never an easy process. As things...
A Brief Illustrated History of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet: 1914-2026
The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has undergone dramatic swings since its 1914 inception, expanding modestly for decades before exploding after the 2008 financial crisis. Between 2008 and 2022 the sheet grew from roughly $0.9 trillion to over $9 trillion, driven by large‑scale...
90% of Govt Money Creation Neutralized by Bond Sales
I've been teaching this for decades, and now the data proves it: 90% of government money creation between 2000 and 2024 was cancelled out by secondary bond sales. The system we have actively destroys the money governments create. EconomicReform
GrainCorp Confident of Global Grain Market Rebalance
GrainCorp CEO Robert Spurway told shareholders that global wheat oversupply of 18 million tonnes is driving low prices and tighter margins for grain handlers. Growers are holding back grain, reducing market availability, but the company expects inventories to rebalance eventually, though...
How Did China’s Guangzhou Tee up a Surge in South Korean Tourists?
South Korean golfers are flocking to Guangzhou, with bookings rising over 300% year‑over‑year after China introduced a 30‑day visa‑free travel policy. The surge is evident at venues like Holiday Islands Golf Club, where Korean visitors jumped 81% while Chinese traffic...
Fed Minutes Omit 2% Inflation Target Date, Signaling Uncertainty
One more note on the Fed minutes: Sometimes it's interesting what they don't say. Last year at every meeting until December, the staff forecast called for inflation to return to 2% by 2027. In December, the forecast pushed this back to...
Job Creation Soft
The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that January 2026 saw a modest net increase of 18,000 jobs, with full‑time employment rising by 50,500 and part‑time employment falling by 32,700. Total employment reached 14,703,800 and monthly hours worked climbed to 2,013 million, while...
3 Southeast Asian Leaders Arrive in Washington for ‘Board of Peace’ Summit
U.S. President Donald Trump convened the inaugural Board of Peace summit in Washington, pledging over $5 billion for Gaza reconstruction and positioning the forum as a potential rival to the United Nations. Indonesia, Vietnam and Cambodia attended, each pursuing distinct economic...
Banker Calls for Peak Banker
National Australia Bank CEO Andrew Irvine warned that Australia has hit "peak Australia," signalling that without a productivity boost the economy will stagnate. Real wages fell for the first time in two years, underscoring the pressure on living standards. Irvine...
Citco Monthly Hedge Fund Update
Citco’s January 2026 hedge‑fund update shows a continued winning streak, with the group’s funds delivering a 0.9% weighted‑average return, marking ten consecutive positive months. Global Macro strategies posted the strongest performance at 6.5%, while smaller funds (<$200 m) outperformed larger peers....
Who Are Australia’s Top 5 Billionaires in 2026?
Australia’s wealthiest individuals added $11 billion in 2026, lifting the top‑five’s combined net worth to $94 billion – a 14 percent rise despite global uncertainty. Gina Rinehart stayed at the summit but saw her fortune dip 15 percent to $24.6 billion amid weaker iron‑ore prices....
Defensives Hit Dot‑Com Lows, Poised for Rally
Chart of the Week - Defensives With tech in trouble (+a number of macro risks lurking on the horizon), defensives are starting to look interesting… Defensives (i.e. an equal-weighted basket of: Utilities, Healthcare, Consumer Staples) are turning up vs the S&P500 —after...
Indonesia Leads Malaysia in Palm Oil and Economic Growth
What do Indonesia and Malaysia have in common? They are the two biggest palm oil exporters in the world. Since 2008, Indonesia’s economy has outperformed Malaysia’s. https://t.co/mTUct95oZv
Thai Capital Market Aligns with Climate Vows
Thailand’s leading capital‑market players – the Government Pension Fund, the Association of Investment Management Companies and the Stock Exchange of Thailand – have launched a coordinated strategy to align listed firms with the country’s nationally determined contributions under the Paris...
North Korea's Inflation Soars to 74.6%, World’s Third Highest
#NKWatch🇰🇵: Today, I measure North Korea’s inflation at 74.6%/yr — that’s the THIRD HIGHEST IN THE WORLD. Kim’s rockets fly, but inflation is what’s truly SKYROCKETING. https://t.co/EbYJ0oBnAW
Korea's Index Slides Below Historical Average After 150% Surge
It’s wild how Korea’s stock index is trading below its historical average following a nearly 150% price rally https://t.co/TyCTVuO5pW
Uzbekistan and United States Create Foundation for Systematic Economic Cooperation
Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev visited Washington on February 18, signing a suite of agreements that lay the groundwork for systematic economic cooperation with the United States. The deals target expanded U.S. investment in Uzbek critical minerals, petrochemicals, energy, agriculture, water‑resource management...
US Iran Strike Would Spark Prolonged, Global Fallout
If the US strikes Iran, it won’t be a weekend event, writes @TheMichaelEvery Retaliation risks include terror cells in Europe The broader Middle East is flammable Energy markets are rightly pricing tail risk—but the real question is duration, not ignition #OilMarkets #Iran #Geopolitics...
IMF: China's Export Growth Harms Its Trading Partners
The latest IMF analysis of China (The staff report/ Article IV) highlights that China's export driven growth has come at the expense of its trading partners. That is welcome, and very necessary message 1/many https://t.co/RTYAzRkFAv
Geopolitical Analysis: U.S. Space Strategy in Africa Facing Chinese Competition
The Atlantic Council’s 2026 strategic analysis warns that the United States must overhaul its commercial partnership model with African nations to counter China’s accelerating foothold in the continent’s space economy. China’s 2025 handover of a telemetry, tracking and command station...
China Buys US LNG, Redirects It to Europe
China hasn’t stopped buying U.S. LNG It’s just not burning it at home. Long-term contracts still bind the two systems Flexible LNG markets let China arbitrage politics by diverting cargoes to Europe. Does anyone on Team Trump know this? https://t.co/CacMbcaSMk #LNG #China #EnergyMarkets #Geopolitics #TradeWar #NaturalGas
Geopolitical Fears Add Incremental Risk Premium to Oil
Oil rallied on fear Iran headlines + Israel alerts = instant risk premium in a tight market But geopolitics don't matter. Except they do in small continuous increments that convert to a steady aggregate premium. https://t.co/6vQGj7YEmu #OilMarkets #Geopolitics #Iran #EnergySecurity #crudeoil
Trump Card Cap Adds to Clouds over US Consumer at Big Banks
U.S. banks posted robust Q4 consumer‑loan growth, but all warned that a proposed 10% credit‑card rate cap could restrict credit access and hurt borrowers. JPMorgan’s credit‑card revenue fell short of forecasts by 7.6% and the bank now expects card‑loan growth...
TLT Call Skew at 90th Percentile, Expect Shakeout
Yep- Skew on TLT (calls expensive to outs) like 1 month out is in the 90th%tile. Gonna get shaken out before yields go lower. Let’s talk about this tomorrow on @ForwardGuidance
Blue Owl Stops Redemptions, Highlighting Exit Liquidity Risk
BLUE OWL PERMANENTLY HALTS REDEMPTIONS AT PRIVATE CREDIT FUND AIMED AT RETAIL INVESTORS — FT Being long scarcity might lead to illiquidity, but being long illiquidity doesn’t necessarily mean you’re long scarcity You’re long exit liquidity
Driving Discussions: The Gasoline Glut - Markets Out of Balance
The episode analyzes the unexpected surge in global gasoline demand and price spreads in late 2025, attributing it to tight refinery capacity in Asia and the Middle East and seasonal factors. It examines how rising EV adoption, evolving blending mandates,...
Korean Reforms Spark Value Ups, Awaiting IBKR Access
I initially thought the Korean reforms would be ineffective. But on the ground, I’m seeing many companies come up with highly positive value up plans. And valuations remain a fraction of those in Japan. Once IBKR opens access, the focus...
Long‑duration Assets Like Bitcoin, Growth Stocks Lose Favor
Bitcoin's drop has coincided with a decline in the Russell 1000's Pure Growth P/E. What do they have in common? Both are long-duration, and are being shunned during the underlying rotation into shorter-duration (cyclical) securities (think value, dividend payers, Energy...
Olympics Boost Spending in Italy; UK Banks Push Visa, Mastercard Rival
U.K. banks, led by Barclays, are convening to fund a home‑grown payment network aimed at reducing reliance on Visa and Mastercard, which dominate 95% of the non‑cash market. Visa data shows the Milano‑Cortina 2026 Winter Olympics sparked a sharp surge...
Libya Redirects Oil Payments From Russia to Western Traders
Libya is cutting Russia out of its oil trade Fuel imports are shifting away from Russia toward large Western traders Sanctions didn’t “punish” Libya into changing behavior. They reshaped who gets paid. https://t.co/pmKRlqgEK1 #OilMarkets #Libya #EnergyGeopolitics #Sanctions #OPEC #crudeoil
US Vaccine Policy Shift Boosts MRNA Stock Appeal
Macro: US vaccine-policy swing heightens regulatory risk; FDA will review Moderna’s flu shot. Key: public dispute, amended filing; decision by Aug 5. Risk: political oversight. Trade: Buy MRNA. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Toyota Union Lowers Annual Bonus Demand
Toyota Motor Corp's labor union lowered its annual bonus demand to 7.3 months' pay, a 0.3‑month reduction from last year’s record level, as the automaker faces higher U.S. tariffs. The union also called for wage hikes in the spring “shunto”...
Drawing Lines in the Sand
The equal‑weighted S&P 500 continues a well‑defined uptrend, indicating intermediate‑term bullish momentum. In contrast, the broader, cap‑weighted U.S. equity averages remain confined to tight trading ranges, reflecting short‑term indecision. Meanwhile, the VVIX—volatility of the VIX—has stayed above the 100 threshold, underscoring...
US Stock Premium at Risk as Tech Capex Rises
Although global markets have narrowed the gap with the US in recent weeks, US equities still trade at a roughly 40% valuation premium to the rest of the world. That premium could shrink further if big tech companies lose their...
Nasdaq Leads a Rocky Risk-On Rally: Stock Market Today
The Nasdaq Composite posted the strongest advance among U.S. indexes, rising 0.8% as risk‑on sentiment persisted amid solid earnings and encouraging economic data. Federal Reserve officials remain divided on rates, while housing starts jumped 6.2% to a five‑month high and...
Global Growth Slows, Rates Sticky; Shorten Treasury Duration
Macro: global growth slows; rates remain sticky. Key factors: US CPI, China demand, energy. Risks: policy missteps, inflation shocks. Trade: shorten duration in US Treasuries. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
2026 Global Bond Credit Outlook: Q&A
European investment‑grade credit remains resilient in early 2026 despite a 2% YoY dip in EBITDA growth and modest leverage creep. Interest‑coverage ratios have stabilised and rating upgrades in Spain and Italy bolster the sector’s outlook. Spreads have tightened to historic...
Data Centers Drive Growth as Fed Shows Internal Split
Today’s burst of economic data showed an economy still powered by the boom in data centers with some broader increases in vehicle orders (Dec) and production (Jan). Housing starts popped in December and were revised higher for November. Good...
ETF Inflows Double Historic Pace in First Six Weeks
Here's ETF flows for the first six weeks of the year historically. This year is off to the best start almost by double. One reason is growing depth of cash vacuum cleaners. VOO, SPYM hoovering as always but there's already...
Packed 24‑Hour Macro Calendar: Japan, US, China Data
The global macro docket for the next 24 hours of trade pics up. Japan has machinery orders, mfg activity survey, a 1-year and 20-year JGB auction, Jan CPI. Walmart and Alibaba report earnings. US and Canada trade balance. PBOC rate setting. Start...
Income Gaps Fuel Migration Across CARICOM Nations
Stark differences in income drive migration within CARICOM (and these are official data). More at today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/DaCnHTI3Wj
Tariffs Inflate Prices and Act Like Hidden Corporate Tax
A) Many studies have examined whether tariffs have been passed through to consumer prices, and they've found significant retail price increases B) Tariff burdens absorbed by US companies are an inefficient corporate tax, paid by Americans via lower wages or share...
Debt-Based Money Ensures Perpetual Debt, Devalues Assets
Bc of the interest component & exponential function of a debt based monetary system, there is never enough money to pay off the debt. And bc debts are always paid (either by lender or borrower), if they didn’t debase the...
Dalio Predicts US Will Print Money, Devalue Currency
Ray Dalio, founder of the world's LARGEST hedge fund, on the national debt: "When countries essentially go broke, what they do is... print money, devalue the currency, and create an artificially low interest rate...that is the way the [US] will do...
Lagarde’s Early Exit Fuels Concerns over ECB Politicization
The ECB should be apolitical. But now President Lagarde says she’s leaving early. According to people “familiar with her thinking,” this is so Macron can pick her successor before the French Presidential election in April 2027. Not very apolitical at...
Hawks Push Back, Hint at Two‑Sided Policy Language
FOMC minutes suggest that the hawks pushed back. "Several would support two-sided language" about policy direction and "several" noted that if inflation remains high, rate hikes might be necessary.
USD/CAD Nears Yearly High, Breakout Risk Rises
Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Advances Toward Yearly Open – Breakout Risk Builds https://t.co/LswuuI4iVW $USDCAD Weekly Chart https://t.co/AfSOwTDtR3