Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Sixth Straight Week of Decline: Container Rates Fall as Pre-Lunar New Year Surge Fails to Materialize
Global container shipping rates slipped another 1% to $1,919 per 40‑foot container, marking a sixth consecutive weekly decline. The expected pre‑Lunar New Year cargo surge failed to materialise, leaving both carriers and shippers with excess capacity. Transpacific lanes saw spot rates dip, while carriers announced 31 blank sailings for the week, and Asia‑Europe routes added eight more. Overall, 63 blank sailings are scheduled for February, intensifying downward pressure on freight rates.
America Faces a ‘Debt Crisis’ a Lot Like the 1980s when a ‘Private Pact’ Brokered by Ronald Reagan Did the...
The United States now carries a public debt exceeding $38 trillion—about 101% of GDP—and projections show it could reach 120% within a decade. Rising interest obligations threaten to crowd out vital programs, notably Social Security, which the Congressional Budget Office warns...
Temnycky in Forbes on Europe’s Move to Phase Out Russian LNG in 2026
Mark Temnycky, a non‑resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, wrote in Forbes that the European Union will fully phase out Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) by the end of 2026. The move is framed as a step toward greater energy...
India-EU FTA to Open New Avenues for Trade, Investment: PM Modi, Greek Counterpart
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis affirmed that the recently concluded India‑EU Free Trade Agreement will unlock fresh trade and investment opportunities between India and the European Union. The leaders discussed expanding cooperation under the India‑Middle East‑Europe...
US, China and Russia Dominate Europe’s Ecommerce Top 10
ECDB’s Global E‑commerce Compass 2026 reveals that U.S., Chinese and Russian platforms dominate Europe’s ecommerce landscape. Amazon leads with a 2025 GMV just under $232 billion, almost equal to the combined GMV of the next nine players. Russian marketplaces Ozon and...
Maersk to Upsize India-USEC Capacity to Tap Post-Trade Deal Cargo Growth
Maersk announced a significant upsizing of its West India‑US East Coast (MECL) service to add incremental westbound container capacity. The move follows the United States’ reduction of tariffs on Indian‑made goods from 50% to 25%, with a further cut to...
‘The Days of the Single Black Swan Are Gone’
At the JSE SA Trade Connect conference, market leaders warned that volatility is no longer a rare "black swan" but a persistent flock of shocks. Alicia Greenwood highlighted the exchange’s push to fuse disparate data sources, enabling faster interpretation and...
Meloni's Ethiopia Visit Firms up Italy's Africa Plans
Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni visited Ethiopia to cement Italy’s renewed Africa strategy, highlighting the operational rollout of the Mattei Plan. The plan aims to turn Italy into an energy hub by building pipelines that export gas and hydrogen from...
Inside the Trump Trade Strategy with USTR’s Jamieson Greer
In a February 2026 Atlantic Council podcast, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer revisited the Trump administration’s aggressive trade agenda, focusing on the looming United States‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement (USMCA) review. Greer confirmed that a full U.S. withdrawal from the pact remains "on...
Philippine Central Bank Cuts Rates in Latest Bid to Support Growth
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) lowered its overnight repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, marking the ninth cut since August 2024. Inflation remains modest at 2%, comfortably within the 2‑4% target band, while the peso rallied to...
Congo Offers Rebel-Held Rubaya Tantalum Mine to US in Minerals Deal
The Democratic Republic of Congo has placed the rebel‑held Rubaya coltan mine on a shortlist of strategic assets offered to the United States under a new minerals‑cooperation framework. Rubaya, which supplies roughly 15% of the world’s coltan, requires between $50 million...
Iran's Infrastructure Attacks Raise Oil Risk Beyond Market Assumptions
Truth from @ClydeCommods 👇 The Iran risk premium assumes a deal or a contained strike that leaves flows intact What if Iran stops playing by the “keep oil flowing” rule & targets infrastructure to force political outcomes? That tail risk is higher than...
Comesa Probes Meta for Locking Rival Chatbots Out of WhatsApp
The COMESA Competition and Consumer Commission (CCCC) has opened an investigation into Meta Platforms Ireland Ltd for allegedly abusing its dominant position by amending WhatsApp Business Solution Terms in October 2025 to block rival AI chatbot providers. The probe follows...
UK Manufacturing Still Beset by Low Orders and Price Pressure, Says CBI
The CBI’s industrial trends survey shows British manufacturers recorded order books well below their long‑term average in February. Despite the weak order flow, most firms plan to raise prices over the next three months. The survey also indicates that output...
Subprime Demand Drives US Loan Growth to New Heights
Subprime borrowers propelled U.S. unsecured loan balances to a record $276 bn, a 10% increase year‑over‑year, with 26.4 million consumers holding such loans. Credit‑card issuers expanded lending to lower‑income customers, pushing total balances 4% higher to $1.15 trillion, but responded by trimming initial...
AI Productivity Gains Pave Way for Fed Rate Cut
The combination of decent economic data (see last week’s employment data) and the softer inflation report might be anecdotal evidence that the promise of an AI-driven productivity boom (which would lift the economy’s non-inflationary speed limit) is becoming a reality....
Earnings and Dividends Now Power Half of Market Gains
One positive aspect of the evolution of this market cycle has been how the market has become less reliant on multiple expansion. Earnings and dividends now comprise almost half of the cumulative gains since October 2022, with the P/E expansion...
Investors Unfazed by Uncertainties Around Tariffs in Med Tech
Investors remain steady in the med‑tech sector despite lingering tariff uncertainties, signaling confidence in long‑term growth. At the same time, research updates highlight the SCAN circuit as a core driver of Parkinson’s disease, TL1A overexpression in hidradenitis suppurativa, and an...
High North Workshop Report Released
On December 10, 2025, the Northern Europe Office and Sweden’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs hosted a High North workshop to assess the Arctic’s evolving security landscape. Participants from Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark and Greenland examined great‑power rivalry, Nordic defence cooperation,...
Bipartisan Push for 3% GDP Deficit Cap Gains Momentum
I Love and Endorse the Bipartisan 3 % of GDP Budget Deficit Solution In the House of Representatives there is now a bipartisan bill in the works to enact, and a growing agreement that we need, a 3% cap on the budget...
Trump Wants US Energy Dominance. Global Markets May Not Agree
President Trump’s energy dominance agenda has boosted US fossil fuel output, with oil production reaching record levels and LNG exports rising over 20 percent. The administration has kept five coal‑fired plants operating through regulatory rollbacks and secured Pentagon contracts, while...
Is Trump Jeopardizing Nonproliferation Efforts to Get A Nuclear Cooperation Deal with Saudi Arabia? A Report To Congress Suggests He...
The Trump administration announced a U.S.–Saudi nuclear cooperation framework in November 2025, but a newly obtained report to Congress reveals the draft 123 agreement omits key non‑proliferation safeguards. The proposal would permit Saudi Arabia to pursue a limited uranium enrichment...
Redistribution Has Actually Grown, Contrary to Stingy Myths
One of the responses I got to my AI and the human touch piece was to claim it was absurd to imagine the government would redistribute more in the event of worse outcomes for some because the US is so...
Walmart CEO: Tariffs Gone, Wages Drive Pricing
"If you refer to those Walmart earnings. The CEO saying that tariffs are no longer an issue when it comes to pricing, but rather wages and income…" https://t.co/0OABeT0az6 #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #kevinwarsh #economy #schwab https://t.co/VX4my3zpe8
EU-Backed Minerals Projects in Africa Move From Policy to Proof
The European Commission has granted strategic status to four African mineral projects—two in South Africa and Zambia, plus sites in Malawi and Madagascar—under the Critical Raw Materials Act, with decisions due in Q2 2026. The Zandkopsdrift rare‑earth operation in South Africa...
Jobless Claims Stay Low, Equilibrium Unchanged
Jobless claims update: Another week of low initial claims and stable continuing claims, suggesting no change in the low-hire, low-fire equilibrium. https://t.co/umbJshwxL5
30‑Year TIPS Auction Pressures Long‑End Breakevens
Long-end breakevens have been under pressure with a brand new 30y TIPS ($9B) up for auction later today. This will be it for the long end though. Rest of the month is front (2s) and belly (5s &...
World Briefs | Rwanda Hikes Lending Rate on Higher Inflation
Rwanda’s central bank raised its key lending rate by 50 basis points to 7.25% on Thursday, reacting to a jump in consumer price inflation to 8.9% year‑on‑year in January. The move aims to bring inflation back within the bank’s 2‑8%...
Miran Says Stronger Labor, Goods Inflation May Raise 2026 Dot
Stephen Miran, long viewed as the Fed’s arch dove, tells The Peg that firm labour data and a pickup in goods inflation could justify revising his 2026 dot higher. https://t.co/qevsjpOlwA
Iran Strike Could Spike Oil Above $90, Duration Key
Iran risk is unpriceable, writes Rabobank's Joe DeLaura. No strike and oil fades to the low $60s. A strike and $90+ is immediate. What matters isn’t the spike, it’s how long the disruption lasts. #OilMarkets #Iran #Hormuz #Geopolitics #EnergySecurity https://t.co/L6wTlG3QZf
Trump Says Iran Has ‘Probably 10 Days’ to Reach Nuclear Deal
President Donald Trump warned Iran it has roughly ten days to reach a "meaningful" nuclear agreement, hinting that "bad things" could follow. He said negotiations were progressing but insisted Tehran must abandon enrichment and missile programs. The warning coincides with...
Venezuela's Oil Revival Is Overhyped, Still Decayed
Venezuela’s oil “revival” is being wildly oversold. It’s a salvage operation. Rusted pipes, polluted lakes, broken upgraders, and legal risk everywhere. You can’t fix 20 years of decay with a few rigs & a pep talk. https://t.co/tmf2KANGJr #OilMarkets #Venezuela #EnergyReality #Sanctions #crudeoil
German ECB Critics Exit Over Fiscal‑Support Shift
Only actions matter, not words. The actions: Germans who stand for separation of monetary and fiscal policies (Jens Weidmann, Axel Weber, Jürgen Starck) left the ECB due to its drift into fiscal support for high-debt countries. The ECB is losing...
Russia Warns of Escalation as US-Iran Tensions Intensify
Russia warned of an unprecedented escalation around Iran as the United States completes a military buildup slated for mid‑March. A Russian corvette joined Iranian naval drills in the Gulf of Oman, underscoring Moscow’s support amid heightened US‑Iran tensions. Negotiations over...
Bears Outnumber Bulls as Jobless Claims Hit Year Low
More bears than bulls in the AAII poll, first time since the late November low. Also, initial jobless claims at the lowest level this year. Not the worst combo. https://t.co/eMyO6gjFm0
Weaponizing Tariffs Invites Expectations to Weaponize Energy
This is what happens when you weaponize tariffs and international alliances: people will assume you would also weaponize energy exports.
Pakistan’s Search for Strategic Flexibility in South Asia
Amid waning external security guarantees, Pakistan has begun exploratory talks with Turkey and Saudi Arabia to create a flexible, informal security platform separate from its 2025 Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement with Riyadh. The trilateral dialogue focuses on defense‑industrial cooperation, with...
Dollar Extends Rally on Strong Jobs, EUR/USD Breaks February Low
The U.S. dollar rallied after initial jobless claims fell to 206,000, well below expectations, reinforcing a labor‑market narrative of resilience. Hawkish Fed minutes further raised the prospect of delayed rate cuts, pushing the greenback higher against major currencies. EUR/USD slipped...
The Link Between Interest Rates and Exchange Rates : The Uncovered Interest Parity
The post examines how the 10‑year US‑German bond yield spread correlates with the USD/EUR exchange rate, showing that higher US yields usually coincide with dollar appreciation. A notable exception occurred after April 2 2025, when a sharp US yield rise was followed...
Global Markets Outperform S&P, Gap Widens in 2025
The ex-U.S. trade is finally working Every major country is outperforming the S&P 500 this year The gap since the start of 2025 is widening Germany & South Korea haveoutperformed over the past 5 yrs Will it last? https://t.co/WxrRxkwriN https://t.co/JKBVG5eT39
World Briefs | Nigeria’s Tinubu and Germany’s Merz Talk Security, Power Deal in Phone Call
Nigerian President Bola Tinubu and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz discussed reviving a stalled electricity transmission project with Siemens and the purchase of used German helicopters, highlighting deeper security and power cooperation. France’s audit office warned that the country must shift...
Morning Market Brief
Lawrence Fuller reviews recent economic data, highlighting a strong finish to the year in housing starts and building permits, though noting a four‑year decline trend. He points out a better‑than‑expected 0.7% rise in January industrial production, driven by consumer goods...
Robinhood Adds Dr. Naomi Boyd as Chief Economic Advisor
Robinhood Markets announced that Dr. Naomi Boyd, dean of the University of Denver’s Daniels College of Business, will serve as its Chief Economic Advisor. Boyd will spearhead research on derivatives market structure, capital markets, and investment dynamics to inform product...
Sudan's Pound Plummets 27%, Ranks 6th Worst
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Sudanese pound ranks as the WORLD'S 6TH WORST currency. The Sudanese pound has depreciated by over 27% against the USD in the past year. IT’S TIME TO DUMP THE SUDANESE POUND & REPLACE IT WITH THE US...
TMTB Morning Wrap
The episode opens with a market snapshot and escalating US‑Iran tensions before diving into earnings from DoorDash (DASH), Booking Holdings (BKNG), eBay (EBAY), Carvana (CVNA) and FIG. DoorDash reported strong 4Q25 growth in gross order value and EBITDA but missed...
Philadelphia Fed: Economic Activity Rises While Inflation Falls
Philly Fed survey just out. Activity UP, prices DOWN. Not too bad. See attached https://t.co/lodqOUkSnH
Advance Wholesale Inventories
The U.S. Census Bureau has postponed the Advance Economic Indicators Report, originally slated for January 28, 2026, to February 19, 2026 due to a recent lapse in federal funding. The report, which provides forward‑looking data on international trade, retail inventories,...
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services
The U.S. Census Bureau announced USA Trade Online: Reimagined, a modernized, login‑free platform that retains core trade data while offering a streamlined interface. A processing error in Exhibit 15 was corrected and the updated FT900 PDF and XLSX were posted on...
China’s Growth Model Shift Faces Deep Structural Hurdles
Now that there is a consensus on what has caused the imbalances and why they are so damaging to China and to the global economy, we have to begin to understand just why it will be so difficult for China...
India Bypasses US, Secures 114 French Rafale Jets
India isn’t waiting on Washington. It just signed a deal for 114 Rafale jets from France. This is more evidence that India is pivoting away from Trump’s threats from the US. https://t.co/kHtF1xgjEs