Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
USD Gains on Strong US Data Unlikely to Last; Policy Uncertainty, Political Risks to Cap
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny says the U.S. dollar’s recent rally, sparked by stronger‑than‑expected durable‑goods, housing and industrial production data and hawkish Fed minutes, is unlikely to be sustained. While the minutes hinted at a cautious stance on further rate cuts, Halpenny warns that political uncertainty under President Trump and potential challenges to Federal Reserve independence could keep dollar sentiment fragile. He points to White House criticism of a New York Fed tariff analysis as a signal of possible interference. Consequently, MUFG expects continued volatility and limited upside for the greenback.
Aussie Flash PMI Cools, RBA Still Hot
Australia’s flash PMI for February showed a deceleration, with output and new orders slipping across manufacturing and services after a vigorous start to the year. Despite the slowdown, business sentiment stayed upbeat, and employment rose sharply as firms added staff...
Shares of Local Oil Explorers Surge on Supply Disruption Fears
Shares of Indian upstream explorers jumped as Brent crude breached $71 per barrel amid renewed US‑Iran tensions and temporary Strait of Hormuz closures. Oil India rose 5.2% and ONGC gained 3.6%, while downstream marketers HPCL and BPCL slipped nearly 5%...
IMF Warns Venezuela’s Economy and Humanitarian Situation Is ‘Quite Fragile’
The IMF warned that Venezuela’s economy and humanitarian situation remain “quite fragile,” citing triple‑digit inflation, a sharply depreciating currency and public debt at roughly 180 percent of GDP. The country has seen massive emigration, with about 8 million people leaving since 2014,...
US Stock Market Hits Record Concentration: Top 10 Own 40%
🚨US market concentration BUBBLE in one chart: The top 10 US stocks make up a record 40% of the S&P 500 market value. At the same time, the weight of the largest stock in the S&P 500 relative to the 75th percentile...
Japan Inflation Slows to 1.5% in January, Core Measures Ease. What Will the BoJ Think?
Japan’s consumer price index slowed sharply in January, with headline inflation dropping to 1.5% year‑over‑year, the lowest level since March 2022 and below expectations. Core inflation excluding fresh food eased to 2.0% YoY, while the core‑core measure fell to 2.6%,...
HSBC Cuts US DCM, Shifts Focus to Asian Banks
Macro: HSBC trims ~10% of US DCM in broader $1.8bn cost overhaul and pivot to Asia/Middle East. Key factors: management cuts, M&A/ECM pullback. Risk: execution/credit cycles. Trade: favor Asian bank equities. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Rising PMI Could Spark Market Melt‑Down, Delay Fed Cuts
Will the stock market melt down if the US economy heats up, banishing traders' hopes for Fed rate cuts? All eyes turn to PMI data to find out. #stockmarkets #USD #fed #pmi #economy #interestrates #macro #trading https://t.co/fgEbuQrjnq
Civil War-Torn Sudan Sits On Unexplored Mineral Riches Worth Billions
Sudan, despite a civil war that began in 2023, is courting foreign investors to develop its largely untapped mineral portfolio that includes gold, copper, uranium and rare‑earth elements. Gold production set a new record of 70 tonnes in 2025, generating...
Strategic Partnership Shouldn't Just Be German Production in China
Hope the "strategic partnership" is more than allowing German companies to produce in China for the German (and European) market ...
Trump's Tariffs Fail, Trade Deficit Widens to $70 B
Pres. Trump promised his steep tariffs would narrow the trade deficit and spark a manufacturing revival. New federal data show the U.S. trade deficit widened to –$70.3B in December 2025. So much for Trump's trade spin. https://t.co/NIGIRs4sQt
Administered Price Inflation Continues to Run Wild
Government and regulatory decisions have driven administered prices—electricity, water, gas, council rates and public transport fares—up 7.55% in the last calendar year. This rise is roughly double the overall CPI inflation rate. Because administered prices are largely insulated from monetary...
South Korea, Turkey, Thailand Lead YTD Market Gains
Best performing stock markets in the world (local currency) year-to-date. 1. S Korea +34.7% 2. Turkey +24.1% 3. Thailand +18.6% In Asia only Indonesia, India negative. Malaysia is up only 4.3%.
Trump’s Energy Dominance Clashes with Soaring Bills at Home
U.S. LNG exports are set to climb from 15 Bcf/d last year to 18.1 Bcf/d by 2027, driving record natural‑gas production. The surge in feed‑gas demand and AI‑powered data‑center growth is tightening domestic supply, pushing residential and wholesale electricity prices higher. While...
Buy Newmont on Pullbacks as Gold Rises
Macro: gold up on rate‑cut hopes & geopolitics. Key: Newmont beat as realized $4,216/oz offset 24% output drop. Risk: output erosion, volatility. Trade: buy Newmont on pullbacks. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
The Closer – Doves Fly, Breadth Disconnect, Repo – 2/19/26
The latest Bespoke Institutional "Closer" highlights a shift in Federal Reserve rhetoric, suggesting a softer stance on monetary policy. It also points to a widening disconnect between market breadth and price performance, while flagging renewed stress in the repo market....
Energy and Materials Surge as Tech Falters in 2026
This is a pretty cool chart to show your investment committee. A classic stock price-to-corporate profits image that reveals extended conditions reminiscent of the turn of the century. If this chart has any prescience, we should remember that the leaders...
Tongaat Hulett Collapse Looms
Tongaat Hulett, South Africa's leading sugar producer, is heading for provisional liquidation after its business rescue plan collapsed. The Vision Group's acquisition of lender claims and a debt‑to‑equity swap failed, leaving the rescue unimplementable. Cosatu warns the collapse will trigger...
SB Energy Tapped for Proposed 9.2‑GW Ohio Gas Power Plant in First Tranche of $550B U.S.–Japan Deal: What We Know
The Trump administration announced that SoftBank’s U.S. affiliate SB Energy will develop a proposed 9.2‑GW, $33 billion natural‑gas power complex near Portsmouth, Ohio. The project is the flagship of a $36 billion first tranche of a $550 billion U.S.–Japan strategic investment framework that...
30-Year TIPS Auction Gets Real Yield of 2.473%, Second Highest in 16 Years
The U.S. Treasury’s latest 30‑year Treasury Inflation‑Protected Securities (TIPS) auction posted a real yield of 2.473%, the second‑highest level in the past 16 years and the highest since the series was relaunched in February 2010. Demand was strong, with the...
UK Heavy Goods Vehicle Sales Dipped in 2025; ZEVs at 1.4% Share
UK heavy goods vehicle registrations fell 10% in 2025, with 40,504 new trucks added, marking a contraction across every quarter. The decline was most pronounced in box vans (-28.1%) and curtain‑sided trucks (-26.2%), while tractor units slipped 4.4% but rebounded...
Why This International Dividend ETF Is Outperforming in 2026
The Franklin International Dividend Booster ETF (XIDV) posted an 8.95% year‑to‑date return, slightly outpacing the iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF (IEFA) at 8.75%. XIDV follows VettaFi’s rules‑based dividend‑optimization index, targeting yields two to three times its parent benchmark without using...
LGBTQ Tourism Shifts Away From the United States as New Global Winners Emerge
The global LGBTQ travel market, now worth hundreds of billions and projected to exceed $500 billion by 2032, is rapidly rebalancing away from the United States. New data from the Spartacus Gay Travel Index shows the U.S. slipping to 48th place,...
Federal Reserve Board Announces It Will Hold a Hybrid Public Outreach Meeting on Thursday, March 26, as Part of Its...
The Federal Reserve Board announced a hybrid public outreach meeting for Thursday, March 26, 2026, as part of its ten‑year review mandated by the Economic Growth and Regulatory Paperwork Reduction Act (EGRPRA). The session will allow stakeholders to comment on a...
Why Trump Is Not to Blame for Europe’s Predicament | George Friedman
George Friedman argues that the United States should not be blamed for Europe’s security dilemma, emphasizing that both sides feel betrayed. He notes that Europe, a patchwork of nearly 50 nations, has the economic capacity to defend itself but lacks...
China's December Short‑term US Deposits Signal Backdoor Intervention
The China story in the TIC data isn't the slide in China's long-term holdings in US custodians -- it is the rise in China's bills and short-term deposits in December. That hints that some of the December surge in...
House E15 Council Eyes More US Biofuel Quota Waivers
The House Republican‑led E15 Rural Domestic Energy Council has revised its biofuel exemption plan, raising the annual cap from 450 million to 550 million Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits. The proposal also authorizes year‑round sales of 15% ethanol gasoline (E15) and expands...
Trump’s Iran Deal Risks Mirror Obama, Favor Equity Shorts
Trump is going to have some explaining to do if he goes through all of this commotion and expensive military build up only to walk away with a deal not too dissimilar from Obama's. Oil is up over 6% since...
BONUS In Brief: Vibes Out of Munich
The episode dissects the 62nd Munich Security Conference, highlighting Europe’s push for strategic autonomy, lingering reliance on the U.S., and a shared sense that the post‑World War II liberal order is eroding. Guests note France’s view that autonomy is a strategic...
Developed Economies May Take Gold in Milan but Emerging Markets Are Winning Advisors
Emerging‑market equities have outpaced U.S. and European stocks in 2026, with the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF up more than 11% year‑to‑date and 37% over the past twelve months. Wealth‑management firms are responding by raising EM exposure to roughly 10‑12%...
Canada Not a ‘Dumping Ground or Transshipment Hub;’ Section 232 Tariffs Unjustified: CSPA
The Canadian Steel Producers Association (CSPA) argues that the U.S. Section 232 steel tariffs are unjustified, noting Canada is not a dumping ground or transshipment hub. Since the tariffs took effect, Canada has lost roughly 2 million metric tons of steel...
TRANSCRIPT: Fed Governor Stephen Miran Talks Rates, Stablecoins and AI
Fed Governor Stephen Miran praised the appointment of Kevin Warsh, noting his hawkish reputation could give the Fed more credibility and make larger rate cuts easier. He highlighted systematic biases in inflation measurement—particularly portfolio‑management services and lagged shelter data—that have...
Rates Dip to 2022 Lows, Sales Still Lagging
Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater: “Mortgage rates dropped again this week, now down to their lowest level since September of 2022.” The 30-year fixed averaged 6.01% this week, down from 6.09% last week. Meanwhile, pending home sales are DOWN after existing...
91 Days, Two Rate Calls, Then Warsh Takes Over
Only 91 days and two more rate decisions (Mar 18 and Apr 29) before Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chair ends (May 15th). Then it is the Warsh era...
Stocks Slide as Traders Assess Walmart Earnings, Potential Iran Conflict: Live Updates
U.S. stock futures were largely flat on Wednesday night after the major indexes posted gains, with the Dow down 0.09%, the S&P 500 down 0.09% and the Nasdaq down 0.1%. Investors focused on Walmart’s upcoming fourth‑quarter earnings, a widely watched...
Fed‑Treasury Coordination Must Be Transparent, Not Secret
Fed independence was a 20th century virtue. Fed inter-dependence is a 21st century necessity. The question was never whether the Fed and Treasury coordinate-it's whether that coordination happens in the dark or in the light The American people deserve monetary transparency...
Grey Swan Risks Amid Busy Global Macro Calendar
While I will keep an eye out for grey swans catalyzing (Iran and Supreme Court's decision on tariffs principally), the global macro docket picks up through Friday. Top event risk includes: Japan CPI; February PMIs; Mexico and Canada retail sales; US...
China Overtakes Germany as Leading Car Exporter, Threatening German Industry
Good piece "For not only has China’s market begun to dry up for Germany, big chunks of German industry now regard China as a direct threat to their interests" Great chart China is a much bigger net exporter (of cars) now than Germany...
AUD/USD Rally Pauses Near 2023 High, Streak Threatened
Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Rally Stalls Near 2023 High – Four-Week Streak at Risk https://t.co/srtBKcRq3k $AUDUSD Weekly Chart https://t.co/oGQK6Jc1uV
AI Data Centers Drain Power of 100k Homes
According to a report from the International Energy Agency, an average AI datacenter consumes as much electricity as 100,000 households. AI = HIGHER ELECTRICITY PRICES = AN AFFORDABILITY PROBLEM. https://t.co/65QNfr2y4U
Copper Prices Jump 44% Year‑Over‑Year
Copper prices have surged to an average of $13,012/mt in January 2026 from $8,991/mt a year ago. That's a WHOPPING 44% INCREASE. BUY COPPER, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/FIhvIikhjQ
Midsize U.S. Firms See Tariffs Triple, Squeeze Cash
Tariffs paid by midsize US companies tripled last year, a JPMorganChase Institute study shows. Pass the cost on. Layoff employees. And/or take profit hit. Cash squeeze to pay duties and invoices. https://t.co/iPsMW2h5iP
Small‑cap Outlook Dim Amid Credit Crunch, AI Slowdown
Asking for a friend how small caps are going to perform after everyone piled in long behind the economic reacceleration trade while private credit implodes, the AI capex buffer declines and the Fed remains on hold...
US Strike Risk Adds Premium to Oil Market
Expectations of a possible US strike on Iran—currently oscillating between wait-and-see and watchful anticipation—have introduced a risk premium into an otherwise well-supplied oil market. My talk w/ @KellyCNBC @CNBCTheExchange https://t.co/XwyD5XmiRg
IMF Must Incorporate Lagged RMB in China Surplus Forecasts
A very important point The IMF needs a new methodology for forecasting China's external surplus, one that explicitly includes the RMB (with lags)
December Goods Deficit Rebounds to Fall‑2024 Levels
December goods deficit (ex oil) was back where it was in the fall of 2024, which seems like a fair read -- the October dip as a one off tied to reversing pharma front running a feared tariff and a...
FTSE100 Hits Record Highs Amid Earnings and Rate‑Cut Hopes
Another great discussion with @MrMBrown where we look at more record highs for the FTSE100, against a backdrop of decent earnings, and the prospect of a March rate cut from the BOE https://t.co/1QJd0kOMS5 via @PepperstoneFX @GoodMoneyGuide
Minor Rate Shift Not Truly Hawkish
in what world could revising up your dot which is ~100bps below OIS to ~50bps below OIS be considered “turning hawkish”?
Soft CPI at 2.4% Signals Declining Inflation Trend
Last week’s CPI report came in soft at 2.4%, which was understandably well received by the bond market. The Truflation index, which has plummeted to a 0.7% year-over-year rate of change, hinted at a softer turn for the CPI. https://t.co/ZsIPypfaNW
EUR/USD Tests Yearly Open Support, Decision Ahead
Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Slides into Yearly Open Support – Decision Time https://t.co/SHnGwyQMrX $EURUSD Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/2Uu9a1yink