Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
The Ultra Bull Case for Lithium (YJ Lee)
In this episode, YJ Lee, founder of the Arcane Green Metal Fund, explains why the July 2024 lithium price dip was a prime buying window and projects a conservative 4.6 Mt lithium demand by 2030, driven by a 33% annual growth rate and China's push to dominate EV supply chains. He also details the rapid rise of silver, highlighting Discovery Silver’s 10‑bagger performance, and forecasts a battery energy storage systems (BESS) boom to 1.5 TWh by 2030. Lee discusses Pilbara Minerals’ restart strategy, the potential for automated mines, and broader implications for other metal markets.
Ukraine Poised to Earn Billions From Wartime Arms Exports
“Ukraine could export several billion dollars of military goods and services this year after authorising its first wartime foreign sales and is considering introducing a tax on those exports, a senior Ukrainian defence official said. Earlier this month, the state commission...
Philippine Fast-Moving Consumer Goods Spending Growth Seen Slowing in 2026—Study
The Worldpanel by Numerator report projects Philippine FMCG spending to grow only 3‑4% in 2026, a sharp deceleration from last year’s 5.2% rise. The slowdown reflects weaker GDP growth, now seen at 5.3% versus an earlier 6% estimate, and higher...
Iran and the Gulf: Why Hedging Is No Longer Enough
The episode examines how Gulf states are moving beyond a hedging strategy toward Iran, recognizing that Iran’s internal turmoil now directly threatens their security and economic interests. It argues that reliance on crisis avoidance and U.S. guarantees is insufficient, and...
US-India Trade Marathon Eyes April Finish Line
India and the United States are moving toward an interim trade agreement that is expected to be signed in April, Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal announced. Negotiators will convene in Washington from Feb 23 to finalize the legal text, converting a...
FX Daily: EUR/USD Can Fall to 1.16 on Further Iran Escalation
Rising US‑Iran tensions are boosting the dollar as oil prices climb, reviving its safe‑haven appeal. The market now assigns a 60% probability to a US strike on Iran, which could lift Brent to $75‑76 and push EUR/USD down toward 1.16....
Economic Factors and Themes to Be Mindful Of
Investors face heightened global volatility in 2026 as leading central banks diverge—while the Fed and BoE continue rate cuts, the ECB sits near neutral and the BoJ tightens. Geopolitical flashpoints around the United States add safe‑haven demand, further weakening the...
Danang Positioned as Crucial Economic Hub for Central Vietnam
Danang’s 2045 master plan re‑imagines the city as a megacity and international financial centre, integrating coastal, mountainous and border zones. The Danang International Financial Centre (IFC) began operations in early 2026, focusing on digital finance, asset tokenisation and green‑finance solutions....
Dollar Firm as Iran Tensions Lift Oil, Markets Turn Cautious
The U.S. dollar stayed firm in quiet Asian markets while heightened Iran‑U.S. tensions pushed WTI crude above $67, its highest level since last August. Gold and silver edged higher but lacked sustained buying, reflecting selective hedging. Meanwhile, the UK reported...
Trump’s Maritime Golden Age Could Prove Costly for Shipping
The Trump administration unveiled its Maritime Action Plan, introducing a universal port fee on all foreign‑built vessels that would be calculated on import cargo weight rather than net tonnage. Revenue projections range from $66 billion to $1.5 trillion over ten years, while...
Central Bank of Ireland Calls for Stronger Economic Initiatives and Strategic Investments in 2026
Ireland’s central bank warned that the country must deepen economic resilience as it enters 2026, despite current strength. Governor Gabriel Makhlouf and Deputy Governor Vasileios Madouros outlined five domestic priorities, including targeted infrastructure, stronger indigenous businesses, fiscal buffers, household market...
Southeast Asia Braces for 'Increasing Divergence' After Mixed 2025 Growth
2025 saw Southeast Asia split between export‑driven growth and contraction. Vietnam and Singapore recorded strong export gains despite U.S. tariff volatility, while the Philippines and Thailand were battered by severe weather events and political instability, dragging their economies down. The...
Japanese Market 'More Dynamic' Than London, Says Apollo CEO
Apollo Global Management’s CEO Marc Rowan told Nikkei that Japan’s corporate finance market is becoming more dynamic than London’s, prompting Apollo to expand its private‑credit platform in the country. He highlighted the need for long‑dated funding to support infrastructure, energy...
COMMENT: Myanmar’s Fragile Post‑election Balancing Act
Myanmar’s December‑January 2025‑26 election was conducted solely in areas under junta control, cementing the military’s claim to power while excluding large swaths of the population. The vote did little to curb the civil war, as resistance forces—including the People’s Defence...
Splash Wrap: ZIM Sale Tops the Agenda
A $4.2 bn transaction will see Germany’s Hapag‑Lloyd acquire Israeli carrier ZIM, then spin off its Israeli operations into a new entity controlled by FIMI. The deal, which preserves 16 vessels for direct Israeli routes, triggered protests and a strike as...
All Global Experiences Useful for Vietnam S International Financial Hub
Vietnam aims to build an international financial centre by drawing on global precedents such as Dubai’s DIFC, China’s Shenzhen and Hangzhou, and Kazakhstan’s AIFC. Experts stress that independent, long‑term regulation, niche specialization in digital and green finance, and adaptive legal...
Raised Ties Reaffirm Strategic Trust
Vietnam and the United Kingdom have upgraded their relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership, the highest tier in Vietnam’s foreign‑policy framework. The deal follows Party General Secretary To Lam’s October visit to Britain and opens cooperation in politics, security, trade, education...
India Sets ₹25,000 Crore Export Engine in Motion as Goyal Launches Plan
India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal launched the ₹25,060‑crore Export Promotion Mission (EPM), a six‑year programme designed to boost outbound shipments and simplify export processes. The initiative consolidates multiple support schemes into a single, digitally driven framework aimed at micro, small...
Navios Lines up $134m Capesize Duo
Navios Maritime Partners announced two long‑term bareboat‑in contracts for Japanese‑built capesize vessels, with purchase options valued at roughly $134.3 million and an effective 6% interest rate. The ships, fitted with scrubbers, are slated to join the fleet in late 2028 and...
Fed Governor Reveals Hidden Dollar Liquidity and Stablecoin Strategies
THREAD 🧵I know everyone is very excited about aliens this morning, but I ask you, is it really as exciting as super wonky insights on dollar liquidity plumbing, Federal Reserve balance sheet policy, and stablecoin statecraft? I think not. I...
Five Things to Know to Start Your Day
Nigeria's federal government ordered ministries to defer 70% of the 2025 capital budget to 2026, limiting new projects to prioritize existing ones amid weak revenues. The Independent Corrupt Practices Commission raided former Kaduna governor Nasir El‑Rufai’s Abuja home as he remains...
Strong Manufacturing Growth Lifts Flash PMI to Three-Month High of 59.3 in Feb
India’s flash Composite PMI rose to 59.3 in February, its strongest level in three months, driven by a surge in manufacturing activity. Total new orders grew at the fastest pace since November, pushing output to a four‑month high, while services...
China, Afghanistan, and Critical Minerals: Options for U.S. Strategic Competition Below the Threshold of War
Afghanistan has re‑emerged as a venue for great‑power competition below the threshold of war, with China pursuing cautious economic engagement focused on mineral extraction and limited infrastructure projects. U.S. analysis shows Chinese contracts have underperformed and remain exploratory, leaving a...
Africa Needs Patient Capital for the Long Term
Africa’s growth potential is hampered by a $350 billion SME financing gap and annual infrastructure needs of $130‑170 billion, far exceeding current investment. While the continent’s population tops 1.5 billion and GDP surpasses $3 trillion, capital flows remain fragmented and short‑term. The article argues...
KPMG UK Shares Insights on Cooling Wages and Stabilizing Jobs Market Potentially Leading to March Rate Cut
KPMG UK analysts say the latest labour market data show wage growth slowing to 4.2% and unemployment edging up to 5.2%, signalling a cooling jobs market. The firm forecasts pay growth will dip to around 3% by year‑end and expects...
Google Bigger than India GDP? Sanjeev Bikhchandani Exposes the Flaw in that Viral Claim
A viral post claimed Google’s $4 trillion market capitalisation exceeds India’s GDP, prompting entrepreneur Sanjeev Bikhchandani to debunk the analogy. He explained that market cap is a stock measure reflecting investor expectations, while GDP is a flow metric tracking annual economic...
Could Medical Care Help Cure China’s Services Trade Deficit?
China’s medical tourism is gaining traction as foreign patients praise rapid, affordable care in megacities like Shanghai and Beijing. While the absolute number of inbound patients remains modest, industry insiders see a growing pipeline driven by visa‑free entry, expanding international...
Why Global Capital Is Looking at India Differently This Year
India’s economy is gaining traction through robust digital public infrastructure and maturing regulatory frameworks, positioning it as a distinct asset class for global investors. The latest Union Budget underscores this shift by offering a 20‑year tax holiday and a flat...
US Market | Credit Concerns Mount: Blue Owl Shake-Up Weighs on US Financial Stocks
Blue Owl Capital announced the sale of $1.4 billion of assets across three credit funds and permanently halted redemptions in one fund to return capital and reduce leverage. The announcement triggered a broad sell‑off in listed alternative‑asset managers such as Apollo,...
Interview with BFM 89.9 Malaysia 20.02.2026
In this emergency interview on BFM 89.9 Malaysia, The Macro Butler warned that a combination of rising oil prices and increasing unemployment could derail the Federal Reserve’s planned rate cuts in 2026, bolster the US dollar, and pressure retail stocks...
RSBT ETF: It's A Directional Bet, Not A Diversification Vehicle
The Return Stacked Bonds & Managed Futures ETF (RSBT) posted a 12.25% year‑over‑year price gain after a tough 2022‑23 inflation cycle. The fund allocates capital between the AGG bond ETF and a suite of trend‑following managed‑futures strategies, positioning it as...
Rupee Declines 27 Paise to 90.95 Against US Dollar in Early Trade
The Indian rupee slipped to 90.95 per U.S. dollar in early Friday trade, down 27 paise from its previous close. The decline was driven by a firmer dollar, higher Brent crude at $71.77 a barrel, and escalating U.S.-Iran tensions. Domestic...
Pakistani PM Holds Talks with Rubio After Washington Summit
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif met U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington on Feb 19, focusing on cooperation in critical minerals, energy, counter‑terrorism and potential American investment. The discussion also highlighted Pakistan’s backing of President Donald Trump’s Gaza peace plan...
Global Market | Japan’s Tightening Cycle Could Redraw the Map of Global Market Liquidity
The Bank of Japan has ended its ultra‑easy stance, pushing policy rates to the highest level in decades and pricing in another hike. Higher domestic yields are likely to trigger repatriation of Japanese savings, cutting the flow of low‑cost funding...
Infra Sector Outlook Cautious as Weak Q3 Performance Leads to 4% YoY Contraction: Nuvama Research
India's infrastructure sector posted a 4% year‑on‑year revenue contraction in Q3 FY26, driven by eroding order books, payment delays, prolonged monsoons and construction bans. Average EBITDA margin slipped 40 basis points to 10.1%, while adjusted PAT margin fell to 5.2%....
Structural Conditions Set Stage for Multi-Year Energy Bull
The STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS are right for a multi-year bull energy market, says @ericnuttall That doesn't mean it's started or that it will be a straight line back to $90-$100 oil prices. Prices will remain volatile, cyclical, and politically distorted — even...
US-China Chip Trade Resumes, Heightening Nvidia, AMD Supply Risks
US-China chip trade restarts with tariffs and restrictions creating high-risk supply chain uncertainty for @nvidia and @AMD #ChipWar #AIChips #USChinaTrade #H200 #TSMC #ExportControls #AIOverwatchAct #ChipSupplyChain #Trump #BISRules #GeopoliticalRisk #TechTariffs #Huawei #LLMs
White House Maritime Action Plan Shows OMSA Leadership on Regulatory Reform
The White House released America’s Maritime Action Plan, a sweeping strategy to strengthen the U.S. maritime sector through regulatory reform, infrastructure investment, and workforce development. A central pillar targets the elimination of redundant, obsolete, or overly burdensome regulations, echoing Offshore...
125 International Companies Exit Pakistan Amid Corruption Claims
#PakWatch🇵🇰: 125 international companies are ceasing operations in Pakistan. PAK = CORRUPT = 3RD WORLD https://t.co/tmHXxbtj8I
Takaichi Warns of Japan’s Domestic Investment Shortfall
*TAKAICHI:THERE IS A DEARTH OF DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN JAPAN Takaichi dropping truth bombs. Starts of with the biggest
Goldman: Gold to Grind Higher to $5,400/Oz by End-2026 on Strong Demand
Goldman Sachs projects gold prices to climb to $5,400 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven primarily by renewed central‑bank buying and modest private‑investor inflows linked to Federal Reserve rate cuts. The forecast assumes a conservative base case with...
Busan Deal: US Sacrific
The impact of the "Busan" deal is now in the trade data -- the US clearly gave up a bit of tariff revenue (lowering the tariff on China) for a bit of supply chain peace, and the prospect of...
December PCE Inflation Hits Multi‑Year Highs
Forecasters expect PCE inflation (core and headline) was 0.37% in December (4.5% annualized rate). This would push up the core PCE index to 3.0% over 12 months, the highest since February 2025 Headline PCE is estimated at 2.9%, the highest since March...
NZD, AUD Fall as RBNZ Says Inflation Returning to Target, No Preset Path
The New Zealand and Australian dollars slipped in Asian trade after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand signaled that inflation is already back within its 2% target band and is expected to stay there for the next year. Governor Adrian Breman emphasized that...
IMF Estimates Chinese Yuan Undervalued by Roughly 19%
Just how undervalued is the Chinese yuan -- the IMF (via the Economist) just revised its estimate up to 19% (plus or minus 4%) 1/many https://t.co/IJ4Z1SmGIq
Iran Tells UN Chief It Will Respond 'Decisively' If Subjected to Military Aggression
Iran warned the United Nations that any military aggression against it would be met with decisive force, stating that bases, facilities and assets of the perceived hostile force would be considered legitimate targets. The warning was delivered in a letter...
Inside Hermès’ Strategy for Profitable Growth in a Slower China
Hermès reported record revenue of over €16 billion in 2025, a 9 % increase at constant exchange rates, and recurring operating income of €6.6 billion, lifting margins to 41 % of sales. Growth was driven by its leather‑goods division, which expanded 13.1 % and remains...
Exclude Pharma and Gold to Reveal True US Trade Trend
I think the best way to look at the underlying trend in the US trade data is strip out pharmaceuticals and gold (both were heavily influenced by the threat of tariffs, even though none were imposed on either category) 1/ https://t.co/7l20zR7CTr
Rising PMI Could Spark Market Melt‑Down, Delay Fed Cuts
Will the stock market melt down if the US economy heats up, banishing traders' hopes for Fed rate cuts? All eyes turn to PMI data to find out. #stockmarkets #USD #fed #pmi #economy #interestrates #macro #trading https://t.co/fgEbuQrjnq
USD Gains on Strong US Data Unlikely to Last; Policy Uncertainty, Political Risks to Cap
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny says the U.S. dollar’s recent rally, sparked by stronger‑than‑expected durable‑goods, housing and industrial production data and hawkish Fed minutes, is unlikely to be sustained. While the minutes hinted at a cautious stance on further rate cuts, Halpenny...