Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
When Is the Spring Statement and What Might Be in It?
Chancellor Rachel Reeves will deliver the UK Spring Statement on 3 March 2026, presenting the latest Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) economic forecasts. The OBR outlook on growth, inflation, unemployment and public finances will be published after the speech via the gov.uk platform. No major tax or spending reforms are expected, as the government saves substantive policy changes for the annual autumn Budget. Current figures show modest GDP growth, cooling yet still elevated inflation, and a rising unemployment rate, highlighting fiscal pressures ahead.
Waller Says March Rate Move Hinges on Feb Payroll
Fed governor Chris Waller conditions his support for a March cut (or hold) on the February payroll data due for release on March 6. “As things stand today, I rate these two possible outcomes as close to a coin flip.” https://t.co/8ompstwgY9 If...
Australians Are Stuck in a Low Income Growth Trap
The OECD’s latest cross‑country data for Q3 2025 shows Australia posting the smallest rise in real per‑capita household disposable income among major English‑speaking economies over the past ten years. While other nations such as the United States, United Kingdom and Canada...
European Dominance in Global Container Shipping Market
European container carriers now control 55.5% of capacity among the top 30 operators, according to Alphaliner’s latest data for week 08 of 2026. This share eclipses the combined 38.6% held by carriers based in Asia and the Middle East. The...
Global Buyout Firms Face Exit Challenges in China
Major private‑equity firms such as KKR, Blackstone and CVC reported no publicly disclosed full exits from mainland Chinese portfolio companies in 2025. The exit drought reflects strained liquidity, higher interest rates and depressed valuations that have throttled deal activity. While...
Indian DAP Stocks Fall Again in January
Indian DAP stocks slipped to just under 1.9 million tonnes in January, marking the fourth consecutive monthly draw. Imports plunged to 70,000 t while domestic production held steady at 342,000 t, and sales rose to 535,000 t, outpacing the three‑year average. Despite the short‑term...
EU: ‘TRIPP Could Be 25% Faster than BTK’ and Help Secure Raw Materials
An EU report says the proposed Trans‑Caucasus Railway (TRIPP) corridor through southern Armenia could be up to 25 % faster than the existing Baku‑Tbilisi‑Kars (BTK) line. The project would create a US‑backed, long‑term lease railway linking Azerbaijan and its Nakhchivan exclave...
Uganda to Link New Railway Line to Tanzania, Opening up New Export Route
Uganda announced plans to connect its new standard gauge railway to Tanzania’s under‑construction rail network. The line would run from the Tanzania border through southwestern Uganda to Mpondwe on the DRC frontier, linking mineral‑rich regions to the port of Dar...
De Minimis Still Shelved After Supreme Court’s Tariff Ruling
The U.S. de minimis exemption, which let shipments under $800 enter duty‑free, remains suspended after President Trump’s executive order, despite a Supreme Court ruling that declared IEEPA‑based tariffs unconstitutional. The Court’s decision did not directly address the exemption, leaving its legal...
Analysts Overstate Global Copper Supply by Ignoring Strategic Reserves
I am seeing many market analysts include the accumulated copper stockpiles in the US in their global balance of copper stockpiles and therefore conclude that there are >1 million tonnes of available copper in global stockpiles today. I am not...
Dollar's Dominance Will Persist Despite Trumpian Challenges
Former ECBer, Vitor Constancio, thinks the dollar debasement narrative is overstated. He says, yes, Trumpian policies are challenging the international monetary order, but they are not, as yet, leading it to crumble: "the dollar will continue to dominate for decades ahead". His...
Seattle-Tacoma and the Pacific Pivot
Seattle‑Tacoma International Airport (SEA) logged a record‑high 460,062 metric tonnes of cargo in 2024, a 10.3% year‑over‑year increase. The surge is powered by high‑value aerospace, electronics and tech exports that command premium freight rates, as well as robust domestic e‑commerce...
The Global Week Ahead
The Mexican army killed CJNG boss "El Mencho" near Puerto Vallarta, triggering fierce gun battles and an unprecedented U.S. military task‑force partnership. President Trump announced a new 15% tariff regime under Section 122, but it can only stay in effect for...
New Data Shows Mid-Market Fashion Outpacing Luxury in Sector Growth
Lectra’s Retviews data shows mid‑market fashion brands raised prices up to 50% in Europe for FW25 and doubled them in the US, overtaking luxury as the sector’s growth engine. Price gains span denim, winter footwear, coats, jackets, handbags and accessories,...
Gold Volatility Surge Signals Looming Stock Market Reversal
Gold Volatility Could Trickle Up to Stocks - Gold's highest 180-day volatility since 2009, juxtaposed with the lowest for the Nasdaq-100 index (NDX) since 2018, forms a crocodile-jaw pattern ripe to bite. My graphic highlights what might be the top...
Waller's March Cut Unlikely; FOMC Odds Near Zero
March cut may be a coin flip for Waller based on Feb payrolls, but it's not for the FOMC. Cut odds close to zero
Armenia’s Not Getting Off the Struggle Bus Just Yet
Armenia’s aging Soviet‑era nuclear reactor leaves the country on the brink of an energy crisis, and Moscow’s dwindling support after the Ukraine war has removed its traditional security backstop. U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance recently signed a nuclear cooperation deal...
Colombia, Chile, South Korea Lead 2026 Emerging Market Inflows
What are the hottest EMs in 2026? There are a handful of EMs that have monthly BoP flows. Those show a big rise in foreign investor inflows for Colombia (red), Chile (blue) and South Korea (purple). India (green) and Mexico...
Waller Open to Steady Rates in March if Labor Stabilizes
Waller, a Fed governor who dissented against January's rate cut pause, said he is open to holding rates steady in March if the labor market continues to stabilize. He also doesn't expect the Supreme Court ruling to impact his rate...
The Long Telegram Just Turned 80. Our Times Demand a New One.
The Atlantic Council’s Frederick Kempe marks the 80th anniversary of George Kennan’s Long Telegram, arguing that today’s geopolitical turbulence demands a comparable strategic blueprint. He highlights a simultaneous great‑power contest involving Russia’s war in Ukraine, China’s assertiveness around Taiwan, and an...
US Policy Shifts Risk Turning Economy Into Petrostate
The US risk drifting toward petrostate economics. Regulatory rollbacks and clean energy policy U-turns aren’t just about climate — they affect jobs, industrial competitiveness, health and investment certainty. https://t.co/6Jn5YrWN68
Short‑term Tariffs Won’t Drive Multi‑year Investment
A tariff that expires in 150 days isn’t a long-run industrial policy. Firms invest on multi-year horizons. If the policy is temporary, the investment response will be, too: mostly none. (This was recorded when the tariff rate was 10%; it's...
Policy Paper: Charter for Budget Responsibility: Autumn 2025
The UK government published an updated Charter for Budget Responsibility (Autumn 2025) on 26 January 2026, with a final version laid in Parliament on 23 February 2026. The revision makes small technical changes to operationalise the Budget 2025 pledge for an annual fiscal‑rules assessment, dovetailing with...
1970s Balance‑of‑Payments Deficit Returns Under Trump
Back to the 1970s again. History, Trump, the law and the balance of payments. Can the bofp be in deficit? Did a chartbook in response to the fascinating exchange between @Brad_Setser & @PhilWMagness https://t.co/ryYY7Z9OBm https://t.co/zySJwiEZN7
Local Content Rules Halve EV Subsidy Effectiveness
New @nberpubs: "Industrial Policies for Multi-Stage Production: The Battle for Battery-Powered Vehicles" https://t.co/DX6XB7e1R0 "local content requirements... drive up costs and reduce subsidy uptake, undoing more than half of the EV adoption stimulus coming from pure buyer subsidies" 😲
Côte D’Azur Airports Are Key Economic Generators for Region
Nice Côte d’Azur and Cannes Mandelieu airports now generate €2.8 billion in regional GDP and support 40,800 full‑time equivalent jobs, marking a 31% and 8% rise respectively since the 2019 study. Passenger traffic grew modestly by 3%, yet the economic impact...
Waller Speaks as US Activity and Orders Dip
Economic calendar for Mon. Feb 23. 8:00am - Fed’s Waller speaks 8:30 - Chicago National Activity Index for December: Expected -0.08; Prior -0.04 10:00 - Factory orders m/m for December: Expected -0.6%; Prior 2.7%
Live on Fox Business: Market & Tariff Outlook
I'll be on @FoxBusiness this morning with @MariaBartiromo today at 7:10 am EST, talking markets, recent tariff developments & what's in store
Airports of Thailand Increase Passenger Departure Tax To THB 1,120 From June 20, 2026
Airports of Thailand (AOT) announced that the international passenger service charge will rise from THB 730 to THB 1,120 per departing passenger, effective June 20, 2026. The domestic charge remains at THB 130. AOT projects the hike will generate roughly...
Dollar Holds Despite Weak GDP, Falters in Asia
When All is Said and Done in FX, Little has been Done: The US dollar was fairly resilient in the face of the softer than expected Q4 GDP reading and the Supreme Court’s tariff decision. However, it came under pressure...
Armenia’s Landlocked Neighbors Limit Post‑Soviet Choices
Armenia’s landlocked position between Turkey, Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran has left Yerevan with few good options in the post-Soviet world. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/ZWXi1Pbh4h #armenia #geopolitics https://t.co/un8RUyVDaW
The Man Who Would Be King of Saudi Arabia (with Karen Elliott House)
In this episode, Russ Roberts talks with journalist Karen Elliott House about her new book on Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, examining the Saudi leader’s drive to modernize the kingdom while consolidating political power. House outlines MBS’s motivations—economic diversification, geopolitical influence, and...
Stocks Sell Off as Traders Wake up to the Realization that Trump Has ‘Highly Punitive’ Options for New Trade Tariffs
Stocks in Asia and Europe fell as investors digested the U.S. Supreme Court’s tariff ruling and President Trump’s threat of new 10‑15 percent duties. Goldman Sachs’ Risk Appetite Indicator slipped, and gold jumped 1.81 % toward a record high. While the S&P 500...
Debt Restructuring Is Senegal’s Best Bet
Senegal’s public debt has surged to roughly 132% of GDP, placing the country in a severe fiscal bind. With limited access to cheap financing, the government faces a stark choice between costly debt service and a structured debt‑restructuring process. Analysts...
Asian Stocks Rally After Trump’s Supreme Court Tariffs Blow
The U.S. Supreme Court invalidated most of President Trump’s tariffs enacted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, delivering a sharp policy reversal. Asian equity markets responded positively, with technology and e‑commerce stocks leading gains and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up...
How Is Georgian Rail Freight Adapting to the Current Geopolitical Landscape?
Georgia’s rail freight accounts for about 10‑12% of national cargo volume but roughly 30% of transit flows, underscoring its strategic role in Eurasian connectivity. After the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, rail volumes surged 22% in 2022 and turnover jumped...
India Exchanges BRICS Ties for Lead Role in the American AI Cage
India is rapidly pivoting from its BRICS stance toward deeper integration with the West, highlighted by a landmark EU free‑trade agreement and its entry into the US‑led Pax Silica AI alliance. The India‑Middle‑East‑Europe Corridor (IMEC) is being repurposed from a logistics...
Dollar 2026 Decline: More Cyclical than Structural
The dollar’s recent slide is viewed as a cyclical correction rather than a structural collapse, with the real trade‑weighted index still well above its long‑term average. Hedging activity is rising, with buy‑side hedge ratios projected to reach roughly 74% by...
US Supreme Court Voids Trump Tariffs as Ports Warn of Uncertainty
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6‑3 that President Trump exceeded his authority by imposing global tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, effectively nullifying those duties. Trump immediately announced a new 10% worldwide tariff using a different statutory basis,...
How Ukraine’s Economy Has Defied the Odds
Ukraine’s economy has rebounded to near pre‑war GDP levels thanks to disciplined fiscal policy, heightened defense spending, and sustained international aid. Restored air and sea corridors revived export channels, while targeted infrastructure grants offset war‑induced fiscal gaps. The government’s focus...
Taiex Sees Gains Limited Amid Renewed Concerns over U.S. Tariff Policies
Taiwan's Taiex index closed modestly higher on Feb. 23, up 0.5% to 33,773 points, as investors weighed renewed U.S. tariff concerns following President Trump’s new global duties. The market’s early surge, driven by electronics, was trimmed by profit‑taking in TSMC,...
A 25-Basis-Point Decline in the Mortgage Rate Prices-In 1.42 Million Households
A 25‑basis‑point (0.25 percentage‑point) drop in mortgage rates could make monthly payments affordable for an estimated 1.42 million additional households, expanding the pool of qualified borrowers. Simultaneously, incorporating the lower operating costs of energy‑efficient homes into underwriting can deliver an equivalent 75‑basis‑point...
Geneva Dry Dialogues: European Energy Exchange
Geneva Dry 2026, the premier dry‑bulk shipping conference, is set for April 28‑29 in Lausanne with up to 900 delegates and 51 sponsors. European Energy Exchange (EEX) head Peter Blogg warned that geopolitical turbulence makes short‑term forecasts difficult, underscoring the...
Egypt's Bid to Anchor a Cairo to Cape Town African Trade Highway
In November 2025 Egypt’s deputy transport minister reported that roughly 80% of the Cairo‑to‑Cape Town trans‑African highway is finished, positioning Egypt as the north‑south anchor of the corridor. The project, part of the African Union’s Trans‑African Highway network, is funded...
Bibi Put Israel’s Partners in an Awkward Position With His Description of the “Hexagon”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a new “hexagon” of alliances that would link Israel with India, Arab states, African nations, Greece, Cyprus and unspecified Asian partners. He framed the network as a counter‑balance to an Iranian‑led “Resistance Axis” and...
What Now for Asia After Trump's Tariffs Struck Down?
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the majority of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump in 2025 were illegal, prompting the administration to replace them with a uniform 15% levy on all goods entering the United States. Customs officials halted...
Too Soon to Comment on US Tariff Change Impact on India, Says FM Sitharaman
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said it is too early for India to assess the impact of the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Trump‑era global tariffs, as the commerce ministry continues its review. She also urged banks to refocus on core...
Unpacking African Markets in the Era of Global Volatility
The Africa Markets Conference 2026 (AMC26) opened in Cape Town, hosted by Standard Bank, to examine how heightened global volatility—particularly U.S. Trump‑era tariffs—affects the continent. Organisers aim to channel private and sovereign capital into African infrastructure and growth sectors amid...
Changing Narratives on China-MENA
A wave of think‑tank discussions in early 2025 highlighted a shift in how experts view China’s role in the Middle East. After a period of heightened activity—dubbed “peak China‑MENA” between Xi’s 2022 Saudi visit and the October 2023 Hamas attack—analysts now...
Trump Serves as His Own China Desk and USTR
Trump is his own China desk (and his own USTR) Brilliant reporting from @dimi of the FT (Strikes me as a very fair summary of the inside DC debate on China) 1/ https://t.co/SYfGL5iROn