Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Export Bans that Weren't Really Bans: How Russia Kept Importing Military Goods
EU export bans targeting military‑relevant goods after Russia’s invasion were initially narrow, covering only specific product variants. Transaction‑level customs data show three evasion channels: partially sanctioned variants, transit shipments declared en route, and rerouting through third‑country hubs such as Turkey. While partially banned goods accounted for the largest share, rerouted flows peaked at $36 million per month in 2023, and the overall trade‑cost impact was a 19 % increase. Strengthening comprehensive bans and targeting intermediary hubs sharply reduced these flows by 2024.
Kazakhstan Managing Uncertainty over Oil Exports
Kazakhstan’s oil export pathway is under heightened risk as Ukrainian drone attacks cripple the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) loading facilities in Novorossiysk, cutting December shipments by roughly 22 percent. The CPC pipeline, which moves over 80 percent of Kazakhstan’s oil,...
The Sixth Jamaican 25-Basis Point Central Bank Interest Rate Cut Since August 2024
The Bank of Jamaica cut its policy rate to 5.50% from 5.75%, its sixth 25‑basis‑point reduction since August 2024 and the first cut in nine months. The move was driven by a milder‑than‑expected inflation impact from Hurricane Melissa, improved agricultural supply,...
Crypto Expands Access to Inflation‑proof Assets for the Poor
Inflation is a regressive tax on the poorest people in society, since they only hold cash. Once people have wealth, they can afford and get access to inflation-resistant asset classes (stocks, bitcoin, real estate, etc). Expanding financial access and opportunities globally to...
World Markets Watchlist: February 23, 2026
Global equity indexes show mixed year‑to‑date performance as of February 23 2026. Japan’s Nikkei 225 leads with a 12.9% rise, followed by the UK’s FTSE 100 (+7.6%) and Canada’s TSX (+6.5%). In contrast, India’s BSE SENSEX records the largest decline at –2.3%. The watchlist also...
Anthropic Says DeepSeek, Moonshot, and MiniMax Used 24,000 Fake Accounts to Rip Off Claude
Anthropic disclosed that three Chinese AI labs—DeepSeek, Moonshot AI and MiniMax—used roughly 24,000 fraudulent accounts to conduct over 16 million interactions with its Claude models, targeting reasoning, coding and tool‑use capabilities. The coordinated distillation attacks extracted large‑scale training data, effectively stealing...
Trump Denies Top US Officer Warned of Iran Strike Risks
President Donald Trump dismissed reports that Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Dan Caine warned against a war with Iran, insisting any conflict would be easily won. Trump posted on Truth Social that Caine never opposed military action and would...
BofA Survey Turns Ultra‑Bearish on Dollar, Go Long
The BofA fund manager survey has never been this bearish on the dollar. It is time to bite your lip and start being a lonely dollar long. I have a sample size of one here, arguably a sample size of...
Tariff Uncertainty Weighs on U.S. Stocks and Business Leaders
The episode examines how renewed U.S. tariff uncertainty, sparked by President Trump's recent statements and a Supreme Court ruling, is rattling markets and leaving business leaders scrambling for clarity on refunds, consumer reactions, and legal strategies. It highlights the contrast...
Mortgage Rates Dip as AI Job Fears Rise
Mortgage rates dropped into the 5s today because everyone is finally realizing the robots are going to take our jobs. Bittersweet.
CN Index Remains in High Pressure Territory as Market Gradually Cools
The CN Index slipped to 512 this week, keeping global container shipping in the high‑pressure zone while showing incremental easing. Freight rates on major Asia‑US and Asia‑Europe corridors fell, reflecting improved capacity and a more balanced demand environment. Geopolitical tensions,...
India’s Carbon Capture Moment Has Arrived
India’s 2026‑27 Union Budget earmarked roughly $2.4 billion (₹20,000 crore) for a national carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) programme targeting steel, cement and other heavy‑industry emitters. The funding marks a shift from research‑only projects to a full‑scale industrial strategy, driven by...
Are the US and Iran Moving Closer to War?
U.S. forces are assembling their largest deployment since the 2003 Iraq invasion as diplomatic overtures continue with Iran. Both sides have scheduled talks for Thursday, while Tehran declares openness to dialogue but also readiness for war. President Donald Trump's mixed...
RBA Holds Quarterly Trimmed Mean, Shorten AUD Duration
RBA probes monthly inflation gauges but sticks to quarterly trimmed mean; policy shift distant, volatile. Risk: noisy swings. Trade: shorten AUD duration until monthly series confirms trend. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
From Which Countries Did the US Import Solar Panels in 2025?
U.S. solar projects continued heavy reliance on imported silicon panels and cells in 2025, with 33 GW of panels and 21 GW of cells entering the market. Imports shifted toward Southeast Asian suppliers, led by Indonesia, Laos and India, while Ethiopia and...
Kazakh Journalists Are Being Fined for Surveying Public Opinion on the Upcoming Referendum
Kazakh authorities have fined journalists and a media outlet for conducting online polls about the March 15 constitutional referendum, citing violations of the country’s referendum‑survey law. The Prosecutor General’s Office requires pre‑approval for any poll, a rule that has blocked...
Trump’s Cuba Policy Is Backing Mexico Into a Corner
President Donald Trump issued an executive order declaring a national emergency over Cuba and threatening tariffs on any nation that continues supplying oil, effectively targeting Mexico, Cuba’s primary oil source. In response, Mexico halted its daily oil shipments to Cuba,...
Chinese Stocks And The FXI After The Supreme Court Ruling On U.S. Tariffs
The U.S. Supreme Court struck down the Trump administration’s tariffs, sparking a rally in Chinese equities and the iShares China Large‑Cap ETF (FXI). FXI now trades at a blended P/E of 13.27 and a 2.37% yield, well below the S&P...
Buy VITL on Weakness: Target $44‑$50
Macro: VITL hits 52‑wk low $25.47; -22% Y/Y, -47% 6m. Fundamentals: LTM profit; analyst PTs $44–60. Risks: demand, ERP, guidance cuts. Trade: buy weakness to $44–50. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
With Three Contestants, the Globe’s New Great Game Is On
Analysts label today’s geopolitical rivalry a "New Great Game" pitting the United States against a China‑Russia alliance. The contest spans Central Asia, the Middle East, the Arctic and the Indo‑Pacific, driven by competition for fossil fuels, rare‑earth minerals and strategic...
Soaring Tanker Costs Force West African Oil Price Cuts
West African crude traders are slashing discounts as freight rates to Asia surge to a five‑year peak and the Brent‑Dubai exchange‑for‑swaps (EFS) spread widens to about $2 per barrel. The higher shipping costs and broader EFS premium have pushed West...
Green Tech Production Quadruples, Outpaces All Consumer Goods
Technology production (green) * ~50 in 2000 * ~190 today Nearly a 4x increase over 25 years This is the only category with powerful long-term structural growth. It recovered strongly after 2008 and exploded again post-2020. Everything else? Mostly flat. Industrial Production: Consumer Goods (2017...
Kazakhstan to Supply Fresh Uranium to India Under New Deal to Fuel Nuclear Power Plants
Kazakhstan’s state‑controlled miner Kazatomprom announced a new contract to supply fresh uranium to India, reinforcing the latter’s nuclear fuel pipeline. The deal follows earlier agreements that delivered 2,100 tonnes in 2009 and 5,000 tonnes between 2015‑19. While exact volumes were...
First Indian Diesel Cargo Arrives in Europe After New Russian Sanctions Take Effect
A tanker chartered by Reliance delivered about 100,000 tons of diesel to Rotterdam, marking the first Indian petroleum fuel cargo to reach the Amsterdam‑Rotterdam‑Antwerp hub since the EU imposed sanctions on Russian‑crude derived products. The vessel, Proteus Bohemia, loaded in India’s...
Effective Taxes on Carbon: An International View
The OECD’s "Effective Carbon Rates 2025" report surveys 79 countries and compares three carbon‑pricing tools: fuel taxes, explicit carbon taxes, and emissions‑trading systems. By weighting tax level against the share of emissions covered, the analysis shows fuel taxes remain the...
USDA Reports a Big Week for U.S. Corn Export Inspections
The USDA reported a record week of U.S. corn export inspections, with more than 2 million tons shipped out of ports during the week ending Feb 19. Japan, South Korea and Mexico accounted for the bulk of the shipments, underscoring strong Asian...
US Pulling Non-Essential Staff From Embassy in Beirut Amid Iran Tensions
The U.S. State Department is withdrawing non‑essential personnel and their families from the embassy in Beirut as tensions with Iran rise. Roughly 50 staff members have been evacuated, though a core diplomatic team remains on site to maintain operations. The...
World Bank Plans to Pump $10bn Into Mozambique
The World Bank announced a $10 bn financing package for Mozambique, including $6 bn of mostly concessional public‑investment funding and an additional $4 bn earmarked for private‑sector projects. A $921 m grant from the International Development Association’s 21st replenishment is also part of the...
June 13 2026 Deadline Ends Tariff Refund Protests
The key deadline your company needs to be aware of to make sure you're eligible for tariff refunds is June 13, 2026. After that date you will not be able to file protests for entries filed on February 4th,...
Britain’s Chagos Choice Signals Resolve to China
Britain’s decision on the Chagos Islands is more than politics. It shapes how strategic rivals — especially China — interpret UK resolve, alliances and influence. This analysis explains why this matters in the context of great-power competition and what it reveals about...
Most US Ferts Cleared Under New Import Policy
The Trump administration announced a 10% import tariff effective Feb 24, but most fertilizers remain exempt, including urea, ammonium nitrate, UAN, DAP, MAP and other key products. The exemption does not cover sulfur, sulfuric acid and ammonia unless they enter through...
A Turning Point Is Inevitable—Just Waiting for Timing
It seems like we're all waiting for a climax on this chart. Whether it might be the end of the tarrifs. Whether it might be a deal between Iran and the US. Something will turn this around, it's not a matter of...
30‑Year Mortgage Falls Below 6%, Boosting Spring Buying
A nice little market selloff creates a flight to safety. And gets the 30-year fixed below that stubborn 6% threshold, finally. The key will be staying sub-6% to allow human psychology to work its magic during the spring home buying...
U.S. and Brazil Soybean Competitiveness: Farm-Level Costs and Returns
A recent Purdue Ag Economy Barometer survey shows 80% of U.S. soybean growers are concerned about Brazil’s growing export advantage. Farm‑level data from 2020‑2024 reveal Brazilian soybean operations in Mato Grosso have lower total costs per ton than Iowa farms, despite...
Trump's Tariff War Sparks Court Battles, Supply‑Chain Uncertainty
Trump tariff vendetta picking up. Will all this go to the courts? Supply chain uncertainty.
Trump’s 15% Tariff Set to Expire, Supply Chains Uncertain
US House not likely to codify Trump’s 15% tariff. So the tariff will expire after 150 days. What will Trump do then? More Trump unpredictability for supply chains?
Sanctions, Seizures, and the Limits of Maritime Visibility
In late 2025 and early 2026 the U.S. Coast Guard and allied forces seized three oil tankers—M/T Skipper, M/T Centuries and Bella 1—after months of multi‑source intelligence proved they were moving sanctioned cargo. The operation underscores a new enforcement paradigm: governments...
Severe Unemployment & Stock Crash Trigger Major Fiscal Response
If the unemployment rate hits 6% with stocks down 25-30% (roughly the thresholds when we got TARP/CARES Act), we’ll get a big fiscal policy response. But it won’t be actual TARP or CARES, it depends on what the crisis looks...
S&P’s Calm Mask Hides Software Slump, Rising Defaults
The S&P 500 looks calm, but look under the hood. Software stocks are DOWN ~30%. Defaults are CLIMBING. Private credit is AT RISK. https://t.co/qJPf95n11Z
Iran's Inflation Hits 79.1%, World’s Second‑Highest
#IranWatch🇮🇷: Today, I measure Iran’s inflation at a PUNISHING 79.1%/yr. That's the world's SECOND HIGHEST INFLATION RATE. I remain the only reliable source of inflationary measures in Iran. https://t.co/Z869QfIwJT
Gold Tops Global Reserves, Outshines All Assets
Gold is officially the most popular reserve asset in the world. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/A7A3qj1YGx
Global Imbalances Drive International Payments Problems
A bit more on section 122 -- Adam Tooze noted that the simplest read of "international payments problems" is a problem of global imbalances manifest by large surpluses and large (U.S.) deficits 1/ https://t.co/86nmn36jP7
CBO Update Shows No Near-Term Deficit Solution
This month the CBO released their first updated budget projection since January 2025. In short, there is no solution in sight to reduce the fiscal deficit. https://t.co/r8ycIrViqQ
Chinese Investors Surge Gold ETF Holdings by 52%
The Chinese are buying gold ETFs like HOT CAKES. According to the World Gold Council, China’s gold ETF holdings rose from 188.8 tonnes at the end of August 2025 to 286.3 tonnes by the end of January, a 52% increase. BUY GOLD,...
Energy Firms Ramp up Lobbying for Venezuela Opportunities
👀 #Energy-related companies' interest in opportunities in #Venezuela is starting to show up in lobbying reports. Expect to see more of this K Street action, as we reported in this morning's @axios Future of Energy newsletter. #OOTT (1/3)
Rupee's Fall Fuels 349% Surge in Gold Imports
The WEAKENING Indian rupee is triggering a GOLD RUSH. The rupee is DOWN 5.6% against the USD since the start of last year. In response, India’s gold imports has surged 349% during the past year. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/iGjJpyGh1p
Honored with Volcker Lifetime Award for Economic Policy
I’m honoured to receive the Paul A. Volcker Lifetime Achievement Award for Economic Policy. Paul Volcker’s personal conviction reshaped the trajectory of central banking in the US and around the world. Read my speech https://t.co/YcIx8y210A https://t.co/w1EZ0DOmzW
Mortgage Rates
5-handle The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 5.99% Same day last year: 6.89% ---------------------- 10-year treasury yield today: 4.03% Spread today: 196 bps
AI Panic Ignored as Markets Remain Near Peaks
It's kind of amazing there is so much worry about AI doom with the S&P 500 w/in 2% of all-time highs and the unemployment rate at 4.3% Have we ever had an enormous risk like this play out with everyone worried...
Tariff Shifts Offer Rule‑of‑law Gains, Little Immediate Relief
The economic impact of tariff changes. Me on @cnni with @jimsciutto - a bit of good news on rule of law, not much immediate relief. See @PIIE for more analysis https://t.co/bbkP6I3455