Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
New Study Finds 6 Types of ‘Discouraged’ Workers in Australia – and Why They Stop Job-Hunting
A new Australian study using HILDA survey data and latent class analysis identified six distinct profiles of discouraged workers – people who want a job but have stopped looking. The groups range from young, low‑educated men to older, well‑educated women facing health, childcare or age‑bias barriers. Researchers argue that these hidden workers represent significant labour‑market slack that official unemployment figures miss. The findings call for nuanced policy responses rather than one‑size‑fits‑all activation programs.
West Asia Conflict May Spike Dal Prices; Rice Exports to Iran at Risk
The ongoing West Asia conflict is expected to push global pulse prices higher, threatening a rise in dal costs for Indian households. India imports roughly 5‑6 million tonnes of pulses from Myanmar, Canada and Africa, leaving the domestic market vulnerable to...
Middle East Conflict Threatens UAE Polymer Export Port
The escalating Middle East conflict sparked a fire at Jabel Ali port, the UAE hub that moves roughly 65 % of GCC polymer exports and 33 % of regional petrochemical cargo. The blaze, caused by debris from an aerial interception, resulted in no...
Hormuz Trade Slows to Trickle as Attacks Continue
The Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil conduit, has seen trade reduced to a trickle after a wave of escalatory attacks. U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, followed by Iranian reprisals triggered by the reported assassination of Supreme Leader...
Quick Iran Conflict Could Cap Gold and Oil Gains
US-Israel Invasion of Iran May Cap Crude and Gold - Gold and crude oil may show signs of peaking if the conflict is quick and infrastructure isn't impaired. Both were up about 20% in 2026 before Feb. 28. If typical swift...
Op-Ed: Gulf States Face a Strategic Choice After Iranian Attacks
Iranian drone attacks on Dubai and other Gulf cities followed the launch of Operation Epic Fury, immediately crippling air services and throttling ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, heavily dependent on imported food...
Germany's Merz Calls for Plan for 'Day After' In Iran
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz urged the United States and European allies to develop a coordinated "day after" strategy for Iran following recent U.S. and Israeli strikes that killed Iran’s supreme leader. He reaffirmed Germany’s support for Washington’s objective of ending Tehran’s...
Travellers Say some Iranians Held up at Turkish Land Border
Some Iranian citizens attempting to cross the Kapıköy land border into Turkey were stopped on March 1, days after the United States and Israel launched strikes that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader. Travelers reported 300‑400 people waiting on the Iranian side, while...
MUFG: Philippine Trade Costs to Fall After US Court Ruling
MUFG Bank expects U.S. tariffs on Philippine imports to decline following the Supreme Court’s decision that curbed the Trump administration’s emergency‑powers tariff authority. The bank notes that exemptions for high‑value semiconductors and key agricultural products should keep effective trade costs...
Gold Poised Near $6k Amid Iran‑Israel Conflict
Gold closed Friday at $5,278. The all-time high is $5,595. That's $317 away. The US and Israel just launched strikes on Iran. Tehran is retaliating. Iran vows to shut down the Strait of Hormuz. This is the biggest safe haven trigger since 2020. Fib extension...
ECB’s Nagel Says Doubts on Dollar’s Haven Status Have Risen
European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel warned that confidence in the U.S. dollar’s safe‑haven status is waning. He noted that recent market turbulence has led international investors to question the dollar’s reliability, contributing to its ongoing weakness. Nagel...
Chokepoints Under Pressure: When Geography and Conflict Strain the Arteries of Global Trade
The article highlights how simultaneous geopolitical tensions at the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and Pakistan’s Arabian Sea threaten global maritime trade. Iranian Revolutionary Guard warnings triggered tanker stand‑offs, navigation interference, and a surge in war‑risk insurance premiums, while...
Renewables Insulate You From Oil Market Chaos
Two different worlds entirely. With the Strait of Hormuz shut down, oil producers closing production and oil tanker insurance companies ceasing coverage in the middle east: Person with no solar & no EV: Congrats, your gas expense may soon double, your...
Proposed Saudi-U.S. Deal Could Allow Uranium Enrichment, Arms Control Experts Warn
U.S. officials are negotiating a nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia that could permit the kingdom to develop uranium enrichment capabilities. Congressional documents and the Arms Control Association warn the deal may create a pathway to a Saudi weapons program,...
Consumer Price Index Isn’t Properly Accounting For Healthcare Costs
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index (CPI) omits key out‑of‑pocket healthcare expenses, masking true inflation for many Americans. While the CPI shows a modest 3% rise since President Trump’s second inauguration, premiums on the ACA marketplace have...
PETER’S ASIAN BUSINESS & FINANCE BRIEFING – Monday 2 March 2026, 06:00 Hong Kong
Over the weekend, coordinated US and Israeli strikes hit Iran, prompting missile and drone retaliation that shut Dubai’s airport and threatened oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict pushed Brent crude toward $73 a barrel and heightened geopolitical...
Week Ahead: Shockwaves From Iran
In this urgent episode of Reuters Morning Bid, hosts Carmel Crimmins and Amanda Cooper dissect the fallout from a wave of US and Israeli strikes that killed Iran’s supreme leader, sparking Iranian drone and missile retaliation. They highlight the immediate...
The Global Tourism War Economy Seen From Amazing Thailand
The escalating Gulf conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran is rippling through global tourism, prompting sentiment‑driven hesitation among long‑haul travelers while leaving Thailand largely insulated. Short‑term booking delays and modest fare increases are expected as airlines absorb higher...
Gulf Stocks Fall, Kuwait Halts Trading as Iran Targets GCC Countries After US-Israeli Strikes
Geopolitical tensions surged after coordinated US‑Israeli strikes on Iran, prompting Iranian missile and drone attacks across the Gulf. Kuwait’s Boursa Kuwait suspended all trading, while Saudi, Oman and Bahrain markets slipped 1‑2% despite Saudi Aramco’s 2.6% rally on rising oil...
Skuld P&I Cancels War Risk Cover in Mideast Gulf
Skuld P&I announced the cancellation of its war‑risk coverage for vessels operating in the Middle East Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, citing a deteriorating geopolitical climate after US and Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory actions. The notice...
UAE Fujairah Bunker Market Braced for Impact
Bunker traders in Fujairah, the Middle East’s largest marine fuels hub, are preparing for a sharp decline in demand after heightened Gulf tensions and unverified warnings of a Strait of Hormuz closure. Recent missile strikes near Fujairah and Jebel Ali have...
Borderlands Mexico: Canada, Mexico Draw Record Foreign Investment in 2025
Canada and Mexico posted record foreign direct investment in 2025, underscoring North America’s growing role as a manufacturing hub. Canada received $96.8 billion, the strongest inflow in 18 years, while Mexico attracted a historic $40.87 billion, a 10.8% year‑over‑year rise. U.S. investors...
Qatar March Sulphur Price Announcement Postponed
State‑owned QatarEnergy Marketing postponed its March Qatar Sulphur Price (QSP) announcement to 4 March, citing recent geopolitical developments. February’s QSP was set at $520 per tonne FOB, a modest $3 increase from January. The delay follows the US‑Israeli strike on Iran,...
Middle East Tensions Could Ripple Through Global Markets Next Week
Middle East Tensions Update & Possible impact on global financial markets going into the next week : https://youtu.be/XZvRoREIMoY?si=LIlBTBlEX3F68ljk
Crude Oil Prices to Cross $100? What Experts Predict After US, Israel Attack on Iran
Following US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran and the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, crude oil prices surged, with WTI at $67.29 and Brent at $72.87. Barclays raised its Brent forecast to $100 per barrel, citing heightened supply‑disruption risk...
AI: The Great Disruptor and Where Smart Money Is Moving
Artificial intelligence is moving from hype to tangible disruption, with AI‑driven code generation eroding the market value of traditional IT services firms such as IBM, which saw a 13% drop in market capitalisation. The technology is also bypassing established middlemen...
War-Driven Correction: Is India's Market Already Priced In?
Friday's closing correction was also on the basis of war. So, what do you think? How much will fall tomorrow? Or has the war's impact already been discounted in the Indian stock market?
Andaman Oil Exploration May Propel India Towards $20 Trillion Economy: Lt Governor Joshi
India’s Andaman Basin is seeing a major push in oil exploration after 63.5% of the 600,000‑sq‑km no‑go zone was cleared for drilling, a move Lieutenant Governor Admiral D.K. Joshi says could help lift the country from its current $4 trillion GDP...
Iran Leadership Change Fuels Heightened US‑Iran Tensions
1/ Update on middle east tensions & their market impact : - Iran's Supreme leader is dead , new leadership will take charge soon (likely today) - IRGC announced to hit America & Israel today in the most intense way - Trump responded...
Visa Targets North Africa Growth with New Egypt, Libya and Sudan Sub-Region
Visa announced a new sub‑regional structure covering Egypt, Libya and Sudan, part of its broader North Africa, Levant and Pakistan growth strategy. The reorganisation appoints Malak El Baba as country manager for the three markets and moves veteran Ahmed Mohey...
China's Treasury Sales Hit Lowest Since 2008
⚠️China is indeed DUMPING US Treasuries: China’s holdings of US government bonds dropped -$75.5 BILLION in 2025, to $683.5 billion, the lowest since September 2008, the Financial Crisis. Since the 2013 peak, holdings have fallen -$633.2 BILLION.👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/china-sold-a-significant-amount-of-us-treasuries-in-2025
Erdoğan Blames Netanyahu for US‑Israeli Strikes, Calls Ceasefire
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: President Erdoğan said Netanyahu’s “provocations” triggered the US–Israeli strikes on Iran. Erdoğan said that Israel is “poisoning the process,” and urged an immediate ceasefire to prevent a wider regional war. https://t.co/y2YtJLqeUy
China Calls for End to Strikes on Iran, UN Says the Hostilities “Undermine International Peace and Security”
China’s foreign ministry called for an immediate cessation of Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran, urging both parties to respect Iran’s sovereignty and resume dialogue. The statement followed unverified reports that Beijing may offer to mediate between Tehran and the...
US Iran Strike Could Redefine Market Risk Profile
I delayed - and rewrote a few times - my week ahead article. Finally posted up (and here are some of the charts that I speak to): Will US Strike on Iran Change the Market’s Risk Profile? https://t.co/UZu6CPkjrl https://t.co/1Kccta89jL
India Hedges Bets, Deepens Ties with EU, Japan, Brazil, Canada
By deepening ties with the EU, Japan, Brazil, and Canada, India is WISELY HEDGING ITS GEOPOLITICAL BETS. STRATEGIC AMBIGUITY PREVAILS AGAIN. https://t.co/TfGLoGF8lA
COMMENT: Modi’s Silence on Middle East Crisis Exposes His Lack of International Clout
Prime Minister Narendra Modi remained silent as missiles struck Iran, Israel and other Middle Eastern states, opting instead to post cricket highlights, investment news and birthday wishes on social media. His silence follows a high‑profile visit to Israel that suggested...
Oil Spike Threatens Stocks Like 1990s Gulf War
A sharp oil spike to those levels would likely result in a one-variable stock market like we initially saw during the 1990’s Persian Gulf War. Stocks under pressure until oil prices come back down. https://t.co/8DQZhDYXqo
Iran Declares Hormuz Open, IRGC Hints Otherwise
The Strait of Hormuz may be open according to the Iranian government, but the IRGC seems to have different machinations. https://t.co/cvL7jYvGoa
Oil Surge Boosts
The decision tree for tonight - when markets open - follows from oil. In 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, oil rose 40%, which drove the Brazilian Real and other commodity exporters in Latin America a lot stronger. It weighed on...
Small Business Owner Refunds Unlawful Tariffs, Calls Out White House
"This small business owner is already giving her customers a tariff refund" https://t.co/958bIzS0SL "if somebody charges you something and it's unlawful, they should give you your money back" Cc: The White House https://t.co/82Lv6OPwJw
US Weapon Supply Hinges on Chinese Components Despite Oil Strikes
"Amateurs talk tactics; professionals study logistics." -USMC Gen. Robert Barrow Many rightfully noting US hitting Chinese oil supplies; few noting that US cannot restock weapons without Chinese components. Left headline: Wednesday of last week Right headline: WSJ today https://t.co/N0oRvB87DA
Industrial Policy: Faith Over Coherent Strategy in Unknown Territory
"The Incoherence of Modest Industrial Policy" https://t.co/FC72XUqs6v "If policymakers admit they are operating in unknown territory, then the idea that they can steer society in a coherent direction becomes less a policy strategy and more an article of faith." https://t.co/pTa6RJfJnQ
Iran Conflict Will Expose Oil Market Fragility
IRAN WAR will test the vulnerability of oil markets - I got to write some thoughts in the Financial Times: https://t.co/L7TKTXxT7U
71% Blame Trump Tariffs for Higher Prices, War Distracts
Americans have SOURED on Pres. Trump. According to the latest Economist poll, 71% of Americans say that Trump’s tariffs increased the price they paid for goods and services. TO DISTRACT AMERICANS, TRUMP HAS JUST STARTED A WAR. https://t.co/WAh0999SVq
Thailand's Deflation Linked to Sub‑Golden Money Supply Growth
Thailand's January CPI is -0.6%/yr. That's the 10th consecutive month in DEFLATION. In the past 3 years, its Money Supply has grown BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 5.4-7.4%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting a 1-3%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = MONEY...
Hyperscaler Capex Slowing, Semis Set to Underperform
Market is forward looking. Hyperscaler capex rate of change decelerates from here. This plus extreme overcrowding is why semis will underperform going forward. https://t.co/uOhD8pfFUa
Korea and Taiwan Set for Massive Chip Surpluses
If there isn't a new energy shock (a big if), the surpluses of the chip exporting powers (Korea and Taiwan) are going to be absolutely stunning this year. 1/2 https://t.co/N2A7u4k1ai
Identify the Top Trade for a Middle East Conflict
What is the #1 trade you want to be holding when a Middle East war breaks out over the weekend? ⬇️
Dubai's Woes Ripple Into India’s $45 Bn Remittances
Problems in Dubai are not just for people staying there - it spills over to India - we get $45 bn of remittances from the Middle East each year.
China's 2025 Economy: Hot Sectors Stuck Amid Cooling
“The Chinese economy in 2025…is like a giant machine where large parts are beginning to cool down, while a considerable part remains at high temperature. But the temperature of this part is difficult to conduct to the cooling parts.” @ChinaFile https://t.co/oC1Pwzm8je