Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Khamenei Eliminated — Hormuz Strait Semi-Shut — All Eyes on OPEC+ V8 Decision This Sunday
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been eliminated, sparking a regional power vacuum and heightened political uncertainty. The Strait of Hormuz is operating at reduced capacity, causing semi‑shutdown conditions that disrupt global oil shipments. Market participants are closely watching the OPEC+ V8 meeting scheduled for Sunday, where producers may adjust output to mitigate supply risks. The convergence of leadership turmoil, chokepoint constraints, and potential policy shifts could reshape oil price dynamics in the coming months.
China Home Prices Plunge, Property Slump Hits Growth
China new home prices fell at fastest pace in 3+ yrs (Feb). Macro: property slump drags growth. Key factors: weak demand, limited policy relief. Risks: wealth erosion, consumption hit. Trade: short Chinese property developers/RE ETFs 🔻 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD,...
IRGC Closes Strait of Hormuz, Threatening 20% Oil Flow
🚨 IRAN WAR UPDATE — MARCH 1, 2026 🚨 Khamenei is confirmed dead by Iranian state media. But the bigger story: the IRGC has formally closed the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping firms are instructing vessels to shelter in place. About 20%...
US Strikes on Iran Lead to Renewed Demands for War Powers Legislation
Democratic lawmakers condemned President Trump’s unilateral strikes on Iran, labeling them dangerous and unnecessary. They are pushing a Senate‑originated War Powers Resolution to require congressional approval before any further US military action against Iran. The effort has attracted bipartisan backing,...
Supply Chain Turmoil Continues: Tariff Wave Drives Uncertainty
Being a Demand Planner, I am trained to notice patterns, seasonality and cycles. To notice the root cause of those disrupting signals and what causes them, so I can get my forecasting model right and predict future events. Since January 20, 2025,...
Why the US‑Israel Strike on Iran Matters Now
the us and israel attacked iran. why now and what comes next? i break down the decision, the risks of escalation, and what to watch. with @ted
Exports Jump 29 Pct to Record Feb. High on Surging Chip Demand
South Korea’s exports surged 29% year‑over‑year in February, hitting a record high. The jump was driven primarily by a sharp rebound in semiconductor shipments as global chip demand accelerated. The trade surplus expanded sharply, reinforcing the country’s position as a...
China’s AI Tech Rotation Amid Modest Growth Forecast
NPC signals 4.5–5% growth, tech rotation to AI specialists and ~1.5tn CNY ultra‑long bonds to fund infra; housing risks and policy disappointment loom. Trade: buy selective China AI-tech names for cyclical catalyst exposure. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Copper Shortage Imminent: Prices Set to Hit $15k
https://t.co/U4SkF1hAbc @UBS boosting its copper price target is just the latest confirmation of what we’ve been warning about for years: the world is flying head-first into a structural copper shortage. A projected $15,000/tonne copper price by 2027… and a half-million-tonne supply deficit...
Here's How Bitcoin's Price Rise Could Be Fueled by Job-Stealing AI Software
NYDIG research chief Greg Cipolaro argues that Bitcoin’s trajectory will be shaped more by AI’s macroeconomic impact than by its own technology. He highlights that AI‑driven automation could cut jobs, suppress consumer demand, and trigger central‑bank liquidity responses that may...
Demand Rises, Inventory Falls Amid Mortgage Rate Tension
What will happen? What did happen with the housing data last week? Demand went up, inventory went down, but I also have a special section about #mortgagerares and the conflict. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #realestate #housing #economics #chartdaddy
Iran War Urges China to Fast‑track Renewables, Shun Coal
Thinking ahead... does this push China to further speed up the adoption of renewables + batteries and make it even more reluctant to wind down coal. The Iran war is an object lesson in a) American power (which shale has...
Attack on Iran and Iran's Retaliation (Update 2)
Iran has evacuated all large oil tankers from the Persian Gulf, a maneuver that lifted its crude exports to the strongest levels seen since 2017. The clearance follows a recent attack on Iranian interests, which Tehran frames as a catalyst...
Brazil's Oversized Money Supply Fuels Inflation Above Target
#BrazilWatch🇧🇷: Brazil's inflation is 4.4%/yr. That's ABOVE its 3.0% inflation target. Brazil’s M4 is growing at 9.6%/yr. That is ABOVE Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 7.1%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its 3.0%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY....
China Aims 5% Growth; Consumption, Innovation to Drive 2026
China Daily: “Around 5% seen as likely GDP target—Consumption, innovation expected to emerge as key economic engines in 2026” https://t.co/mvmKY53AFy
Iran Crisis Puts the Regime's $7.8 Billion Crypto Shadow Economy in Spotlight
Fresh U.S. and Israeli strikes have shone a spotlight on Iran’s parallel crypto economy, now estimated at $7.78 billion. Since legalising mining in 2019, Tehran subsidises electricity for licensed operators who sell Bitcoin to the central bank, using it to bypass...
Eurozone Inflation Below Target as Money Supply Lags
The Eurozone’s inflation comes in at 1.9%/yr. That's below its 2%/yr target. The ECB’s money supply is only growing at 3.4%/yr. That's BELOW Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 6%/yr, a rate consistent w/ hitting ECB’s 2%/yr target. INFLATION STORY = MONEY SUPPLY...
Trump's War Risks Global Energy Market Instability
How Trump’s War Could Destabilize the Global Energy Market #energysky -- via Heatmap News https://t.co/5Rh1Ysyc2w https://t.co/XMEM6rLIOY
QazMoly Nears $240M US Funding for Tungsten Project in Kazakhstan
Kazakh miner QazMoly is close to securing up to $240 million from the U.S. Export‑Import Bank to fund its Drozhilov tungsten project, provided all output is sold to U.S. buyers. The financing would cover a large share of the mine’s capital...
Jeff Sachs: US Has Just Stepped Into Trouble over Iran
Distinguished Columbia Prof. Jeff Sachs on the US strikes on Iran: “The U.S. has stepped into shit today, if I could put it bluntly.” https://t.co/TcqwrdIyD9
West's Import Dependence Stems From Financial‑First Economy
Visionary investor @ctindale takes on THE big question: How did America and the West become so dependent on imports for almost everything we use? Tindale says the Western focus on the financial economy over the material economy has led to a...
Iranian Missiles Shake Gulf Cities After US, Israeli Strikes on Iran
Iran fired a barrage of missiles at Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain in retaliation for recent U.S. and Israeli strikes. All four Gulf states’ air defenses intercepted most of the projectiles, though debris caused at least one...
Iran Conflict Sparks Oil Surge and Market Turbulence
Major News to Track on March 1, 2026: 1. US-Israel Strikes on Iran Escalate, Khamenei Reported Dead 2. Oil Prices Surge Amid Fears of Strait of Hormuz Disruption 3. Global Stock Markets Brace for Volatility Post-Iran Attacks 4. EPF Announces...
Hormuz Closure After US‑Israel Strike Sends Markets Tumbling
🚨 OPERATION EPIC FURY — Feb 28, 2026 US and Israel launched a massive military campaign against Iran at 1:15 AM ET. Regime change is the stated goal. Iran retaliated, striking US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and UAE. US officials say...
Gold to Surge After U.S. Strike on Iran
A U.S. and Israeli strike on Iran broke over the weekend, prompting immediate reactions in precious‑metal markets. Because traditional markets are closed, the first price signal came from crypto‑linked gold tokens, with Tether Gold jumping 1.57% to about $5,341 per...
Weak Dollar Often Worsens, Not Fixes, Trade Deficit
A Weak Dollar Won’t Fix the Trade Deficit There’s a popular belief that a weaker dollar will reduce the U.S. trade deficit by boosting exports and reducing imports. In the short term, the opposite often happens. When the dollar falls, imports immediately become...
PMI Spike Signals End of Bear Market, Favor Equities, Crypto
Quite good actually; The recent read on PMI gave a big outlier: 57.7 The highest read since May '22. It doesn't say that we immediately need to pump with #Bitcoin or whatsoever, although it gives an indication of where the economy and markets...
Egypt Urea Sold Higher After US, Israel Attack on Iran
Egyptian fertilizer producers Mopco and Alexfert each sold 6,000 t of granular urea for March loading, pricing the cargoes at $505/t and $495/t FOB respectively. The transactions reflect a price jump after the United States launched major combat operations in Iran...
Energy Fundamentals Outweigh Geopolitics as US Capex Plummets
Iran/US experts are everywhere today... Here is a friendly reminder that the case for energy is rooted in structural forces — not short-term geopolitical events. US energy sector capex, adjusted for GDP, is still down nearly 80% from prior peaks. Investors obsess...
Upcoming Trade Gains Interest per Jan 13 Macro Memo
Here’s what we wrote in our last macro memo on January 13th, should become a much more interesting trade over the coming weeks: https://t.co/iqiIN2DGsB
Monthly Market Commentary
DoubleLine’s Monthly Market Commentary delivers a concise, multi‑asset review for investors, advisers and institutions. Each edition synthesizes recent moves in fixed income, equities, credit and commodities while tying them to macroeconomic data and central‑bank actions. The report also breaks down...
Erdogan Warns US‑Israeli Strikes Could Ignite Regional Fire
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: President Erdogan condemned the US–Israeli strikes on Iran and warned that if diplomacy and common sense do not prevail, the region could be dragged into a “ring of fire.” ERDOGAN'S 'RING OF FIRE' IS AN UNDERSTATEMENT. https://t.co/EISjbPXLJq
Geopolitical Crises Cause Short-Term Pain, 5% Median Rebound.
Here's a list of major geopolitical events since WWII. Up a median of 5% six months later. All of them felt really bad at the time. https://t.co/Jb3QXL0L05
A Proxy Without a Purpose: Hizballah and the Iran Crisis
The United States and Israel’s escalating attacks on Iran have revived questions about Hezbollah’s strategic value as Tehran’s premier proxy. After a costly 2024 war with Israel, Hezbollah’s long‑range strike capability and leadership have been severely degraded, while the Lebanese...
No Market Dip After Iran Crisis Hints Bitcoin Surge
If this is the day that Khamenei is killed, Iran is being attacked by the U.S. And the markets aren't down at all. Then there's not really any argument left for uncertainty anymore and I would expect #Bitcoin to turn upwards. https://t.co/5S5RfEOLqd
Strait of Hormuz Status Threatens Shipping and Consumers
Is the Strait of Hormuz Open? ▶️Danger to Shipping ▶️US and UK Waring ▶️Impact for Consumers ▶️Other Factors Impacting Global Tanker Market ▶️Is US Sealift & Afloat Prepositioning Moving? Video: https://t.co/SgdGJdWaSD https://t.co/Cvj3mRaiq7
BofA: Slowing Demand to Hit Philippines Growth
Bank of America projects Philippine GDP growth at 4.6% in 2026 and 5.0% in 2027, falling short of the economy’s 5.5‑6.5% sustainable range. The slowdown is driven by weak household consumption, softer private investment and a tapering of government disbursements...
Bank Credit Surge Signals Inflation Pressure Ahead
The growth rate in U.S. commercial bank credit has been steadily picking up. On Feb. 18th it was 6.7%/yr. When it comes to the money supply, commercial banks are the elephant in the room. They produce 80% of M2. THE US INFLATION GENIE...
IRGC Threatens Hormuz Closure, Risking Oil Price Surge
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has reportedly warned that no vessels are allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. This blockade of the channel, which carries ~20% of global oil, threatens massive energy price spikes and severe, immediate disruptions...
BSP Flags Faster Inflation in February
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) projects February inflation to rise to between 2.3% and 3.1%, up from January’s 2% rate. Higher rice and fish prices, elevated petroleum costs and increased Meralco electricity charges are the main upward pressures, while...
Iranian Drone Strike Hits Near Dubai's Burj Khalifa, Evacuations Ordered
Following the US-Israeli attack on Iran, an Iranian counter-attack launched a drone strike close to the Burj Khalifa in Dubai, UAE. The Burj Khalifa has been evacuated. https://t.co/zrHYb8kfrf
One Year of Hyperscaler Capex Stuns With Massive Scale
The sheer volume of just one year of hyperscaler capex spending is mind boggling https://t.co/MtseOemoPC
10‑Year Yield Falls 34bps; Rate Cut Looms?
10yr yield down 34bps in less than 4 weeks @stockcharts Will rates drop on Monday? #Iran https://t.co/0jT2TsHb42
18 Industries Set to Generate $48T by 2040
Where will the next wave of global growth come from? 🌊 @McKinsey_MGI breaks down the 18 industries, from AI to healthcare, set to drive up to $48 trillion in revenue by 2040. These 🔟 charts visualize the future of competition: https://t.co/MURdZJwPdW...
Turkey's Soaring Inflation Mirrors Runaway Money Supply Growth
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: Turkey's CPI is 30.7%/yr. NO SURPRISE. Turkey's money supply (M3) is growing at 40.9%/yr. That is well above Hanke's Golden Growth of 12.4%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting Turkey's inflation target of 5.0%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/rvnlCC3318
US-Israel Strikes Trigger Global Market Volatility
🚨 The US and Israel just launched strikes on Iran. Tehran is firing back. Missiles hitting Gulf states. Markets open Sunday night. Oil. Gold. Nasdaq. Forex. Everything gaps. I'm going LIVE Sunday 6PM ET to break down what this means for your trades. Don't...
Canadian Universities Face New Business Model Without Indian Students
The quiet part here is that Canadian universities will get a business development opportunity without Indian students coming to Canada and seeking to work & stay, as they had under Trudeau policies which saw their numbers grow exponentially.
Canada Shifts Toward US-Led Regime Change Policy
It is notable that PM Carney has put Canada behind regime change by US force in Venezuela & in Iran. I believe this is a departure from the traditional position Canada takes on the global stage, but eager to hear...
Bond Rally Threatened by Potential Strait of Hormuz Closure
Bond bulls that were celebrating 10y UST yields dropping <4% on Friday waking up Saturday morning to reports that the Strait of Hormuz is possibly being closed 👇 https://t.co/pg9o9TPdO5
Markets Rebound Fast After Geopolitical Shocks—Buy the Dip
Markets have survived every geopolitical shock in history Pearl Harbor took 307 days to recover. Kuwait took 189. 9/11 took 31. The average? 47 days Today the US and Israel struck Iran. History says buy the dip - but how long...