Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
What Are the Main Events for Today?
The European session delivered two key data points: Germany’s preliminary Q4 GDP rose 0.3% quarter‑on‑quarter, beating expectations, and Eurozone CPI showed a 1.7% year‑on‑year headline increase with core inflation at 2.2%. Both releases are final figures that historically have limited market impact, leaving the ECB’s policy outlook unchanged. In the U.S., only low‑tier reports such as MBA mortgage applications and Canadian wholesale sales were on the calendar, offering little new insight for the Fed. A packed roster of central‑bank speakers, including several hawkish Fed officials, rounds out the day’s agenda.
Explainer: How Supreme Court Ruling Upends Regional Shipping Order
Panama’s Supreme Court has terminated the nearly 30‑year concession that gave Hong Kong‑based CK Hutchison control of two strategic ports on the Panama Canal. The decision clears the way for Danish carrier A.P. Møller‑Maersk to take over operations at the terminals,...
Who Showed up — and Who Didn’t — for Kyiv’s Big Day
Europe marked the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full‑scale invasion with a high‑profile solidarity event in Kyiv, where EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Portugal’s Prime Minister António Costa stood beside President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The gathering showcased symbolic support...
Godongwana Holds Better Budget Cards but Economic Recovery Remains Inadequate
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is set to present a 2026 budget bolstered by higher-than‑expected tax receipts, driven by a commodity price surge and improved collection efficiency. Despite the fiscal headroom, his GDP outlook remains bleak, projecting growth under 2%—far short...
Market View: Banks, Planes & Political Signals
The episode reviews recent market moves, highlighting OCBC's 3% profit rise driven by strong non‑interest income and a proposed special dividend, while noting net interest margin compression. Singapore Airlines showed robust revenue growth and higher passenger loads but saw net...
Emerging Markets Outpace US Stocks Since 2024 Peak
🚨Have US stocks PEAKED? The US stocks versus emerging market equities ratio has been falling for the last 15 months, after peaking in November 2024. Over this period, emerging market stocks have returned +48% while the S&P 500 delivered just +15%👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-stock-market-has-peaked
Japan Govmt Nominates New BOJ Board Members as Rate-Hike Path Comes Into Focus
Japan’s government has nominated professor emeritus Toichiro Asada and law professor Ayano Sato to the Bank of Japan’s nine‑member monetary policy board, pending parliamentary approval. The appointments arrive as the BOJ exits its ultra‑easy stimulus regime and lifts rates to...
US Shale and SPR only Temporary Buffers for Iran Shock
U.S. shale + SPR barrels & China’s vast stockpiles will offset Iran oil disruptions, writes @ronbousso1 But shale doesn't surge on command & stockpiles are a short-lived buffer The most likely shock absorbers are a limited Iran conflict & China stepping...
New Dedicated Freight Corridor From Dankuni to Surat to Boost MP Logistics, Exports
Union Railways Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw announced a 2,052‑km Dedicated Freight Corridor from Dankuni in West Bengal to Surat in Gujarat, traversing Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. The East‑West line will link with the existing Western Dedicated Freight Corridor, providing...
Coal India Backs Phased Rollout of National Coal Exchange to Protect Energy Security
Coal India has endorsed a phased rollout of the National Coal Exchange, aiming to move coal trading from traditional e‑auctions to a regulated electronic platform with market‑based price discovery. Executive Director V S Maharaj emphasized that reforms must be calibrated to protect...
Yogi Adityanath Meets Singapore President to Boost Infrastructure and Innovation Ties
Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath met Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam to deepen ties in infrastructure, innovation, skill development and sustainable growth. The discussion highlighted the recently upgraded India‑Singapore Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and aimed to channel Singaporean expertise and capital...
Liquidity, Not Earnings, Halts Market Rally
What happened to the stock market? The market rally has come to a HALT. Earnings and innovation are not the problem, liquidity is.
Government Monitors Iron Ore Pricing Shifts Amid China Talks
The Australian government is closely tracking new iron‑ore pricing arrangements being trialled between Chinese buyers and major Australian producers. Companies such as Fortescue and Rio Tinto have begun using Fastmarkets, while BHP negotiates with China Mineral Resources Group over alternative...
Bangladesh Election Reduces Political Uncertainty but Forthcoming Reform Execution Remains Critical
Bangladesh’s February 12 election gave the Bangladesh Nationalist Party a decisive parliamentary super‑majority, easing short‑term political uncertainty. The win clears the path for a long‑awaited constitutional referendum that could reshape the legislature, judiciary and prime‑ministerial term limits. Fitch Ratings notes that...
Panama Seizes Two Canal Ports
Panama's government announced the seizure of two strategic ports along the Panama Canal, citing national security and revenue concerns. The move follows a series of regulatory actions aimed at tightening state control over critical infrastructure. Officials indicated that the ports...
Freightos Weekly Update: Uncertainty Surges Again as SCOTUS Decides and Trump Responds
The U.S. Supreme Court struck down the Trump administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs, prompting President Trump to issue an executive order that imposes a 10% global tariff under Section 122, with a possible...
Hong Kong Sees Fast Growth Continuing Into 2026 on Rebound
Hong Kong’s Financial Secretary Paul Chan announced a 2026 GDP growth projection of 2.5%‑3.5%, raising expectations beyond the 2%‑3% range slated for 2025. The forecast follows a 3.5% expansion in 2025, the strongest pace since 2021, underscoring a robust post‑pandemic...
Vaca Muerta's Promise Stalls Behind Fiscal and Infrastructure Hurdles
Argentina’s Vaca Muerta looks great on paper, but it’s not the next Permian. Argentina’s fiscal mess, weak infrastructure, & massive capex needs are real barriers. Continental’s hype says as much about a fading Bakken play as it does about Vaca Muerta. https://t.co/SGzycaNHEd #Oil...
Markets Misread Dovish BoJ as Bullish Amid Rate‑Driven Rally
so Japanese markets suffered deflation for decades at the hands of a dovish BoJ... and the markets have had a historic rally on the back of rising rates and yet somehow the market thinks dovish BoJ nominations is bullish... got it
What’s Next for Ukraine: Investment
Ukraine will emerge from the war burdened with massive debt, but experts Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Maurice Obstfeld argue that restructuring—potentially including outright forgiveness—is essential to attract private capital. They estimate a $40 billion annual investment gap, split between rebuilding destroyed assets,...
Home Prices Stay Resilient Across 2.75%-18% Rates
The history of home prices when rates ranged from 2.75% to 18% during this period. https://t.co/I0aE7X40Jt
Uranium Enrichment Capacity, Not Reactors, Limits Supply
Uranium enrichment is running straight into a hard physical bottleneck Enrichment capacity, not reactors, is the constraint The US is still deeply dependent on Russian enrichment https://t.co/UzZh17Lcy5 #NuclearEnergy #Uranium #EnergySecurity #SupplyChains #EnergyTransition #Geopolitics
A Tale of Two Financial Centres: Brexit Uncertainty and the Fragility of Cross-Border Capital Flows
A new firm‑level study of Swiss‑UK capital linkages finds that the Brexit referendum’s surge in policy uncertainty sharply reduced short‑term debt flows from Swiss‑resident firms to the United Kingdom, while equity investments remained stable. The contraction is driven almost entirely...
Top Countries Supplying US Solar Panels in 2025
From which countries did the US import solar panels in 2025? #energysky -- via Solar Power World: https://t.co/50iShtuhwp
WSJ Dismisses Balance of Payments, Sparks Skepticism
Well, the WSJ oped page lost me with statement that the balance of payments is a non issue ... 1/2
Ratcheting up the Economic Coercion on Japan; Mixed Holiday Economic Data; Germany's Merz Arrives in Beijing; US-China; AI; Political Education...
China’s Ministry of Commerce escalated economic pressure on Japan by adding 20 Japanese firms to its export control list and another 20 to a watch list, targeting dual‑use items. Foreign Minister Wang Yi intensified rhetoric, accusing Japan of harboring ambitions...
Foreigners Still Buying US Assets Despite Dollar Weakness
Foreign stocks are beating US stocks and the dollar is weakening, yet foreigners bought $1.4 trillion in US securities last year. The selling wave everyone is talking about isn't showing up in the data. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/yXliX9IMIO
Markets Teeter on Tariffs, Iran Tensions, Trump SOTU
Stocks & the dollar hang in the balance amid tariff chaos and possible war with Iran as President Trump delivers his State of the Union speech. Are the markets in trouble? #SOTU2026 #Trump #tariffs #Iran #market #stockmarkets #DOLLAR #Macro #Trading https://t.co/PVSRBaRIjl
The 0.7100 Hurdle: Key Factors Driving AUD/USD's Range-Bound Trade as CPI...
AUD/USD remains trapped in a tight 0.7040‑0.7070 range as traders weigh the Reserve Bank of Australia's 3.85% policy rate against looming Australian CPI data. The pair failed to break the 0.7100 resistance, keeping bullish momentum at bay despite a resilient...
Clean Energy Markets Face a Volatile Year Despite Record Global Investment
Global renewable‑energy investment hit a record $386 billion in 2025, driven by offshore wind and small‑scale solar in emerging markets. In the United States, clean‑energy funding slumped sharply in Q4, falling 36 percent after the Biden‑era EV tax credit was eliminated, resulting...
Eight Questions (and Expert Answers) on What’s Next for US Tariff Policy
President Donald Trump announced a 10 percent tariff on most imports, revising his earlier 15 percent target. The move follows a Supreme Court decision that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not grant the president authority to impose such duties. Experts...
'Chaotic': Big Law Trade Attorneys Deluged With Client Inquiries After Tariff Ruling
Big law trade attorneys are experiencing a flood of client inquiries after the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated key Trump-era tariffs. The ruling enables importers to seek refunds, prompting firms like Quinn Emanuel to launch a dedicated tariff‑refund litigation task force....
Money Supply Surge Keeps Precious Metals Bull Market Early
The U.S. money supply has soared nearly 5x since 2000, pushing the cost of living significantly higher — yet most people still prefer dollars over gold & silver. That means the precious metals bull market is still very young,
January 2026 Erdmann Housing Tracker
The Erdmann Housing Tracker notes that core inflation—excluding rent—has now been tracking a 2% trend for roughly three and a half years. This prolonged alignment suggests price pressures are stabilizing outside the rental sector. The brief also hints at deeper...
Monetary Policy Committee Policy Rate Likely to Remain Unchanged
The Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% during Wednesday’s meeting, buoyed by a stronger‑than‑expected 2.5% year‑on‑year GDP growth in Q4 2025 and a clearer political environment after the election. Economists...
China to ‘Expand the Country’s Market Share and Influence on Prices in the International Gold Market’ – Hong Kong Official...
Hong Kong announced a concerted push to become a premier international gold trading hub, aligning with China’s goal to expand its market share and influence on global bullion prices. The city plans to increase gold storage capacity to over 2,000...
Bull Market Still Strong, Yet Flattening Into Picks‑and‑Shovels
Another week, another headline bombshell. Such has been the norm during the past year or so. But charts are charts, and there is a lot we can learn from them in order to optimize the signal-to-noise ratio. What do...
Could Canada and Australia Form a Critical Minerals Supergroup? – by Ian Verrender (Australian Broadcasting Corporation – February 24, 2026)
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to address the Australian Parliament, signalling a push toward a Canada‑Australia critical minerals partnership. His recent World Economic Forum speech urged medium powers to forge new alliances, a message that provoked a sharp...
BoT Upgrades Thai GDP Forecast After Robust Q4
The Bank of Thailand raised its 2026 GDP growth projection to 1.9%, up from 1.5%, after a stronger‑than‑expected fourth‑quarter performance. Governor Vitai Ratanakorn stressed that tighter coordination between fiscal stimulus and monetary easing is essential to move the economy toward...
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ANALYSIS: Trump Tariff Snotklap Is a Jolt of Note for SA’s Economy
The US Supreme Court rebuked President Trump’s broad tariff authority, prompting a 10% across‑the‑board duty that replaces the 30% reciprocal tariff South Africa faced. The reduction levels the playing field for SA exporters, while gold surged to a three‑week high...
PBOC Buying $100B Monthly to Curb Yuan Surge
The mandarins at the PBOC are in a difficult spot -- a faster pace of CNY appreciation against the dollar has convinced Chinese exporters to bring funds back home, and driven the need to buy $100b a month (give or...
Trump Tariffs Produce Negligible Job Growth, a Flop
My view in @FortuneMagazine on Pres. Trump's tariffs: "Only 181,000 total jobs were created in the US last year, down from 2.2 million in 2024. Contrary to the Spinmeister-in-Chief, tariffs are, when it comes to jobs, a flop." https://t.co/LtaB5ShdIl
US Imposes Cyber-Related Sanctions on Russian, UAE Individuals and Entities
The U.S. Treasury announced cyber‑related sanctions on four individuals and three entities, including parties in Russia and the United Arab Emirates. The measures target those involved in acquiring and distributing malicious cyber tools that threaten U.S. national security. The sanctions...
Dollar Weakness Shifts Next Bull Market Beyond America
The next bull market may not be American. Dollar weakness changes leadership. If the dollar is in a structural bear, global diversification stops being optional. Capital rotates. Narratives lag. Read the full framework: https://t.co/RJWIidZeAI @DynamicAlphaSol
Trump Wields Tariffs as Coercive Negotiation Tool
My views in @FortuneMagazine on Pres. Trump’s upcoming State of the Union: "With the tariff gun at their heads, the Tariff Man asserts that he can force them to sign on the dotted line, even if it is under duress." https://t.co/rfie6YbkBa
Oversupply and Military Threats Cast Shadow on Shipping’s Return
The container shipping sector is poised at a critical juncture in February 2026 as vessels tentatively resume the Red Sea corridor amid lingering military threats. At the same time, a deep structural oversupply of container ships is squeezing already fragile...
Eli Lilly's 2025 Irish Tax Bill Doubles U.S.
Whoah Nellie. Looks like Ireland's list of its top 3 corporate tax papers will need to be updated for 2025 ... Eli Lilly reported paying $6.6b to Ireland in 2025 (2x its US federal income tax payments) https://t.co/MEw7WMzPft
Tariffs Contradict Carnegie’s Friendship Principles, Says Fortune
My views in @FortuneMagazine on Pres. Trump’s upcoming State of the Union: "The use of tariffs as threats and leverage is nowhere to be found in Dale Carnegie’s 1936 classic How to Win Friends and Influence People.” https://t.co/rfie6YbkBa
France Revives Interventionist
Paging President Macron as well -- Old fashioned imbalances are back, as is intervention (now done through the back door) ... which sets the ground work for France to try to actually achieve something at its G-7
Inflation Gaps, Europe’s Structural Hurdles, US Court Ruling Explained
Tariffs, trade and transatlantic divergence Dr Linda Yueh unpacks inflation splits, Europe’s structural challenge and a landmark US court ruling https://t.co/0yboLoVlmp