Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
US to Allow Resale of Venezuelan Oil to Cuba
The U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced it will approve third‑party applications to resell Venezuelan crude and refined products to Cuba. Transactions must follow the same conditions as U.S.-authorized sales to Venezuela's state oil firm, including depositing proceeds in a U.S.-controlled bank account. The guidance limits sales to humanitarian‑related refined products and bars transfers to Cuban military or intelligence entities. Non‑U.S. companies can also receive resale authorizations, while Cuban imports of U.S. oil require Commerce Department approval.
Current Stance:
My positioning & stance update on Gold , Dollar , US indexes & Bitcoin 🧵
Four Years On, Ukraine’s War Still Refuses to End
Four years after Russia’s 2022 invasion, the conflict has settled into a grinding stalemate, with Russia controlling roughly one‑fifth of Ukrainian territory and both sides suffering up to 1.8 million casualties. Civilian deaths exceed 15,000 and millions remain displaced, while reconstruction...
The New Age of Western Industrial Policy: Is There a New Playbook?
A virtual “Trade Winds” event on March 11, 2026 gathered top economists and policymakers to assess the resurgence of Western industrial policy. Speakers outlined a growing toolbox—including procurement preferences, subsidies, and public‑private partnerships—driven by competitiveness, innovation, and economic‑security concerns. The measures aim...
The Trump Administration's America First Investment Pledges
The Trump administration announced an "America First" investment drive that has secured more than $5 trillion in pledges from foreign governments for projects across defense, technology, energy and infrastructure. The deals are framed as reciprocal arrangements, linking tariff relief to partner...
The State of US-Japan Economic Relations in a Changing Global Economy
A recent webinar examined the evolving economic partnership between the United States and Japan, highlighting trade, investment, and supply‑chain dynamics amid shifting global patterns. Experts discussed how post‑pandemic realignments and technological change are reshaping bilateral ties. The dialogue also addressed...
Manufacturing Industry Forecast 2.9% Growth in 2026 As Asia Leads The Way
Interact Analysis projects global manufacturing output to grow 2.9% in 2026, up from 2.0% in 2025, with an average annual rate of 3.1% through 2030. Asia emerges as the strongest region, delivering 3.2% growth and a $30.1 trillion output, while India...
CARICOM, Cuba and the U.S.
At the CARICOM summit in St. Kitts and Nevis, leaders denounced U.S. interventions, highlighting a de‑facto oil blockade on Cuba and pressure on the island’s medical‑mission exports. Prime Minister Terrance Drew described severe shortages of food, water and electricity, while...
Bahri Charters Five Supertankers as Rates Approach $200K/Day
Saudi Arabia’s largest oil shipper, Bahri, provisionally chartered five very large crude carriers as daily charter rates neared $200,000, the highest level since 2020. The vessels are slated to move Saudi crude to Asian markets, chiefly China, in the coming...
British Charm Offensive on 'Made in Europe' Under Way as London Seeks Closer EU Ties
British Business and Trade Secretary Peter Kyle is leading a diplomatic push to embed the United Kingdom in the EU’s new “Made in Europe” procurement framework. The effort follows a stalled attempt to join the €150 billion Security Action for Europe...
EM Earnings Surge 31% YoY, Outpacing US and Commodities
One way to visualize the global earnings convergence is by showing earnings estimates for the different regions on a log scale. All estimates are rising but EM estimates are rising the fastest. Shown another way, EM estimates are now rising at...
China's Gold Reserves Jump 260% Since 2022
Since October 2022, China’s gold reserves have SURGED by 260%. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/ot9Q5fMQ8n
How Timor-Leste Uses Tourism to Cement Its ASEAN Role
Timor‑Leste is leveraging its recent ASEAN membership to accelerate a sustainable tourism strategy that showcases its pristine marine and mountainous assets. By joining ASEAN, the nation gains access to regional marketing channels and co‑branding opportunities, allowing it to present itself...
Trump Quiet on $2,000 Tariff Rebate Checks
EVERCORE: “.. Trump has not emphasized the $2,000 ‘tariff rebate’ checks since earlier this year, suggesting that at least for now this has fallen off the agenda ..” 😔 https://t.co/EN0kaph84R
Solar Boom Fueled by Debt, Not True Cost Savings
I don't think the world is ready for the reality that the great solar boom wasn't as cost-efficient as everyone thought. And actually, in a round-about way, was probably predominantly subsidised by growing Western indebtedness, at the cost of middle-class...
Germany to Include CCS-Based H2 in 'Acceleration Law'
Germany's Bundestag will vote on a hydrogen acceleration law that expands eligible infrastructure to include carbon‑capture‑and‑storage (CCS) based hydrogen production. The amendment also adds import facilities for power‑to‑liquid fuels such as synthetic aviation fuel. Projects designated as "overriding public interest"...
U.S. Treasury Sanctions 12 Tankers in Iran’s Shadow Fleet
The U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control announced sanctions on 12 tankers and their owners that have shipped hundreds of millions of dollars in Iranian petroleum and petrochemical products. The designations also include nine individuals and entities in Iran,...
BNY’s Eric Hundahl Talks 2026 Market Opportunities & More
BNY Mellon’s senior strategist Eric Hundahl outlined the investment landscape for 2026, emphasizing opportunities across emerging markets, technology, and sustainable assets. He highlighted that easing inflation and stabilizing fixed‑income yields are creating a more favorable risk‑adjusted environment. Hundahl also warned...
JPMorgan, BofA Favor Venezuela Bonds With More Unpaid Interest
JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America are urging clients to buy Venezuelan global bonds that carry large amounts of unpaid interest, known as accrued coupons. The banks argue that these distressed securities could deliver outsized returns if Venezuela...
Higher Real Wages Benefit Workers as Consumers
People seem to have forgotten that workers are consumers. Rising real wages is pro worker too, even if some tasks get replaced.
Britain’s Attitude Toward Nato Across the Political Parties
Prime Minister Keir Starmer is championing a “NATO First” agenda and a defence budget of 3 percent of GDP, aiming to raise spending by about $23 billion a year. The Conservatives, now in opposition, echo the 3 percent target for 2030 and suggest shifting...
USDJPY‑Yield Spread Correlation Rebounds to Strong Positive
The rolling 40-day (2 month) correlation between $USDJPY and the US-Japan 2-year yield spread has rebound to a stronger positive (+0.6) after 10 months of inversion. Will it just start syncing up or will this gap in carry standing close?...
Tech Exports Drive 5% GDP, 7% Jobs in India
According to the World Bank, computer & information services exports account for nearly 5% of India’s GDP and generate roughly 7% of India’s employment. NO WONDER PM MODI IS SO POPULAR. https://t.co/aWyUaxVmlL
ECB Adopts Opinion on Appointment of Its Future Vice-President
The European Central Bank’s Governing Council issued an opinion supporting the EU Council’s proposed candidate, Boris Vujčić, for the next Vice‑President. Vujčić, currently Governor of the Croatian National Bank, will assume the role on 1 June 2026 for a non‑renewable eight‑year term,...
Donald Trump’s Tariffs Affect AmiAmi, Aitai Kuji, and Hobby-Genki
U.S. courts have struck down President Donald Trump’s 2025 tariff authority, prompting a revised global tariff of 10%. The ruling has forced Japanese hobby retailers AmiAmi, Aitai Kuji, and Hobby‑Genki to hold or delay shipments to the United States. Both...
OPEC+ Poised for Cautious Supply Hikes Amid Y2K‑style Glut
OPEC+ likely to restart supply hikes The oil glut is looking more like Y2K Still, OPEC+ increases will probably be cautious. https://t.co/XT9I0sGhYp #Oil #OPECPlus #EnergyMarkets #Geopolitics #Shale
Applied Materials to Pay $252.5M to Settle Export Violations
Applied Materials agreed to pay a $252.5 million penalty to the U.S. Department of Commerce, settling 56 export‑control violations involving illegal shipments of ion‑implanting equipment to China’s SMIC. The settlement also requires two internal audits of the company’s compliance program, and...
Goal Is to Remove Fear of ‘Tariff Wall’, but Can’t Rush: Nirmala Sitharaman
Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said the 2026‑27 budget will lower tariffs only after a detailed sector‑by‑sector review of protection duration and domestic capacity. She emphasized removing the fear of a “tariff wall” while avoiding rushed cuts that could harm...
Thailand Interest Rate Cut
The Bank of Thailand cut its benchmark rate to 1.0 % on February 25, 2026, a 25‑basis‑point reduction from 1.25 % and the lowest level since October 2022. The move was unexpected, coming after a similar cut in December and reflecting a revised outlook...
Cintrini Resorts to Zandi’s Stats Amid Worsening
Just when you think it can’t get worse we got Cintrini appealing to Zandi “stats”
Trump's State of the Union Included Almost 1,200 Words About His LatAm Policies
Trump’s 2026 State of the Union devoted nearly 1,200 words to Latin American policy, far outpacing other regional references. The speech stressed new trade tariffs, immigration reforms, and security cooperation, echoing recent moves such as Honduras expelling Cuban doctors and...
Factor National Interests, Avoid Becoming Market Victim
You can begin factoring national interests and power factors into your preferred free market analysis or you can be a victim of it. https://t.co/bDXsO4Jd8A
Thoughts on the Potential Broader Significance of the Supreme Court's Tariff Decision
The U.S. Supreme Court in Learning Resources v. Trump struck down President Trump’s expansive tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The majority opinion, authored by Chief Justice John Roberts, held that the president cannot wield unlimited...
Fed Moves Needn't Dictate Other Central Banks' Actions
The policies of the Fed impact economies globally, but that doesn’t mean other central banks have to follow the Fed. If the Fed were to implement surprise rate cuts, the Bank of England should arguably do the exact opposite. My latest...
China Warns US Trade Probe Could Spark New War
China warns about US trade probe. And tariffs. Will there be another trade war? And what then for supply chains?
Russia Boosts Budget Reserve Fund Amid Falling Oil Revenues
Russia's finance ministry announced plans to lower the cut‑off price that triggers the transfer of oil revenues into the budget reserve fund. The move aims to channel more of the declining oil proceeds into the $56 billion reserve to protect it...
Canada Enjoys World‑lowest Tariffs Amid Post‑ruling Calm
I imagine no one in Ottawa is in a great rush given the tariff chaos post Supreme Court ruling and the great deal Canada is getting right now -literally the lowest effective tariff rate in the world (possibly by accident...
Japan LNG Resales Hit Record as Companies Expand Overseas Trading
Japan’s LNG resales hit a record in fiscal 2024, surpassing the volume imported from any single supplier. Declining domestic consumption, driven by nuclear restarts, efficiency gains and renewable growth, has pushed utilities and trading houses to redirect surplus cargoes to...
Courts to Decide Why Collected Tariffs Remain Unrefunded
USTR: Courts will tell about tariff refunds. US collected the tariffs. Why are they not stepping up on refunds?
US Signals Steady Tariffs Ahead of China Meeting
U.S. Trade Representative Greer announced the administration will keep tariffs on Chinese imports between 35% and 50%, matching the levels set under the Trump administration. The U.S. does not plan to raise rates beyond this range and aims for continuity...
Overnight Trade
Crude oil rallied to $65.89 per barrel this morning as concerns over a potential Iranian conflict resurfaced, while the Canadian dollar held near 65.89 U.S. cents. In the grain sector, canola futures slipped to C$690.20 a tonne, pressured by a...
China’s 5-Year Plan Boosts Energy Security, Regional Self‑Reliance
How China’s 5-year energy plan could change the way it powers its economy Beijing will prioritise energy security through large-scale projects and greater regional self-reliance, as risks mount at home and overseas https://t.co/HwoETxozqe via @scmpnews
Brace for the Next Trade Storm After Tariff Blizzard
After the Tariff Blizzard, Are You Ready for the Next Storm? - https://t.co/syg5yLFZmi @joinindago #TrumpTariffs #IEEPA #SupremeCourt #globaltrade #supplychain #logistics #tradecompliance
U.K. Sanctions Maritime Mutual over Dark Fleet Coverage
Britain has placed sanctions on New Zealand‑based Maritime Mutual Insurance Association and its Gibraltar affiliate, accusing them of insuring dark‑fleet tankers that transport Iranian and Russian oil. The measures include an asset freeze and the disqualification of company directors. Maritime...
US Policies Amplify Global Inflation Beyond Shared Goods
"How U.S.-Centric is the Inflation Problem?" https://t.co/536nv3SjWg "whatever common elements are shared by globally traded consumer and business goods have been augmented by country-specific decisions in the United States, Germany, and Canada." https://t.co/QflnhV9CDt
Zambia to Build ‘Rainy Day’ Fund While Metals Surge
Zambia will establish a “rainy day” stabilisation fund to lock away surplus copper revenues as production hits record levels and prices hover near historic highs. The Treasury plans to finalise the fund’s framework this year before beginning deposits, using the...
India-Europe Spot Rates Climb on Seasonal Booking Demand, Tighter Capacity
Container carriers on the India‑Europe and Mediterranean lanes have raised February spot rates sharply, reflecting heightened seasonal booking demand and constrained vessel capacity. Forwarder data show spot asks climbing $400‑$500 per TEU since January, pushing average prices from Nhava Sheva/Mundra...
LNG Export Permits Strengthen U.S. Industry and European Security
I can't remember--who was the president 10 years ago? That Administration's decision to grant permits for LNG exports was a boon for the domestic O&G industry while also helping U.S. and European security by reducing dependence on Russian energy exports.
The Argentina Deal Is the Template of How Deals in the New World Order Will Work
On February 5, the United States and Argentina signed a bilateral agreement that goes beyond tariff cuts to align trade, investment, and national‑security priorities in critical minerals and energy. The pact obliges Argentina to facilitate U.S. investment across the entire...
Treasury Secretary Admits Tariffs Pretext, Investigations Reverse‑engineered
Also, it's nice to see the Treasury Secretary openly admit the new Section 301 investigations will be reverse-engineered to justify new tariffs. Not even a hint that the investigation might go negative. It's all just a pretext. https://t.co/HDwm3f4gpE https://t.co/U1olE8kLdE