Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Dar Ports Become Bargaining Chip Against Mombasa for EA Traders
South Sudan is redirecting most of its import‑export cargo from Kenya’s congested Mombasa port to Tanzania’s Dar es Salaam and Tanga terminals after a bilateral agreement. The shift follows persistent delays, a $5,000 security levy per container, and higher handling costs at Mombasa. Tanzania offers lower tariffs, longer free‑storage periods and a digital customs integration to curb tax evasion. Trade between South Sudan and Tanzania rose to $10.1 million in 2024, signalling a broader re‑balancing of East African trade corridors.
US Dollar Index Falls to Near 97.50 as White House Policy Doubts Linger
The U.S. Dollar Index slipped to around 97.50 during Asian trading, marking a second straight session of decline amid White House policy doubts. President Donald Trump’s State of the Union remarks defended and expanded Section 122 tariffs to 10 %, adding trade‑related...
Global Equities Rise as India Volatility Falls
Global Market Update: Gift Nifty +53.00 (0.21%) 25,672.50 DowJones +307.77 (+0.63%) 49,482.27 Nasdaq +288.40 (+1.26%) 23,152.08 India Vix -0.6875 (-4.86%) 13.4625 S&P 500 +56.07 (+0.81%) 6,946.14
CGT Concerns Don’t Stack Up
The Real Estate Institute of Australia (REIA) has publicly opposed the government’s plan to halve the capital gains tax (CGT) discount from 50 % to 25 %. REIA argues the cut will force landlords to raise rents to offset lower after‑tax returns,...
5 European Oil Stocks To Buy As Iran Risk Premium Boosts Oil Prices
Geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran have added a sizable risk premium to oil, pushing Brent into the low‑70s and sparking forecasts of $100 per barrel if conflict escalates. The surge has lifted the STOXX Europe 600 Oil...
A New Twist: What’s Next After the Supreme Court Tariff Ruling
Supreme Court ruled the administration lacked authority under IEEPA to impose global tariffs, instantly invalidating duties ranging from 10 % to 50 %. The decision leaves $130 billion in collected tariffs without an approved refund process, while Section 301 and Section 232 tariffs remain in...
Developments in Foreign Exchange and Over-the-Counter Derivatives Markets
The BIS Triennial Survey shows global foreign‑exchange turnover jumped to US$9.5 trillion per day in April 2025, a 27 % rise driven by heightened volatility, hedging and speculative activity. Spot and outright forwards led the surge, while currency‑option turnover more than doubled and...
Recent Changes in Credit Markets and Their Implications for Monetary Policy
The February 2026 bulletin outlines three post‑pandemic credit‑market shifts that have eased financial conditions: bank‑funding cost spreads fell about 70 basis points, variable mortgage‑rate spreads narrowed roughly 65 basis points, and business‑credit supply expanded with non‑bank lenders gaining market share. These...
On the Road to Better Cross-Border Payments: How Is Australia Travelling?
Australia is gradually aligning with the G20 Roadmap for cross‑border payments, having met the universal access target but still falling short on cost, speed and transparency goals. Bank‑based transfers to advanced economies cost about 4 % for a A$1,000 payment, while...
Tactical Agreement Proving Elusive for Central Asian States Grappling with Water Deficit
Central Asian states recognize an urgent water shortage as they pursue water‑intensive projects like nuclear plants, data centers and expanded mining. Upstream nations Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan control most supplies, while downstream Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan depend on irrigation, creating a...
Turkey and BP Reshape the Balance of Power in Northern Iraq
Turkey’s state‑owned TPAO and Britain’s BP have signed a comprehensive oil and gas cooperation agreement targeting Iraq’s Kirkuk basin. TPAO aims to lift 500,000 barrels per day by 2028, while BP’s initial target is 328,000 barrels per day, with plans...
The Emerging US Influence Threat to British Democracy
The United States’ 2025 National Security Strategy signals a new soft‑power push, funding MAGA‑aligned think tanks in the UK and Europe while tech oligarchs pour record sums into political campaigns. By the end of 2025, US‑backed donors contributed $429 million to...
Geopolitics in the Evaluation of International Scientific Collaboration
Recent randomized surveys of US policymakers and scientists reveal a pronounced “China penalty” in grant evaluations. When the only variable changed is the collaborator’s nationality, support for US‑China proposals drops sharply compared with identical US‑Germany proposals, with unconditional approval falling...
CIA Launches Fresh Social Media Push to Recruit Iranians as Trump Threatens Military Action
The CIA has launched a new Farsi‑language recruitment campaign on X, Instagram, Facebook, Telegram and YouTube, urging Iranians to contact the agency using disposable devices and trusted VPNs. The guidance stresses operational security, recommending Tor and non‑Russian/Chinese VPNs. The effort...
Trump’s IEA Threat Spurs Canada to Build Own Data
Trump's Bullying of IEA a Wake-up Call for Canada Energy Sec Chris Wright: Stop promoting net-zero or US will pull out of iea. Canada needs data, modelling for trade negotiations, policy. Where will Mark Carney Carney get it? Our own economists. #cdnpoli https://youtu.be/DhE1Gfoh-yY
VP Vance Says US Sees Evidence Iran Is Trying to Rebuild a Nuclear Weapon
U.S. Vice President JD Vance announced that Washington has identified evidence Iran is attempting to rebuild its nuclear weapons capability after June U.S.-led strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Vance reiterated that Iran must not acquire a nuclear bomb, framing the...
Why the Arctic Matters to the United States
The Arctic is emerging as a strategic frontier for energy, trade and security, as melting ice unlocks vast hydrocarbon and critical‑mineral deposits and shortens shipping lanes. Russia controls more than half the Arctic coastline and is modernizing its military presence,...
Soybeans, Corn Find Support From Short Covering, Dollar Weakness
Soybeans and corn rallied on short covering and a weaker U.S. dollar, lifting both grain complexes despite mixed weather signals. Brazil’s soybean harvest is progressing, but export forecasts were trimmed to 10.69 million tons, while Argentina’s rain benefits later‑planted beans. Traders...
Sri Lanka Is Now India’s Best – and Maybe Last – Friend in South Asia
India has re‑asserted Sri Lanka as its most dependable South Asian partner through swift humanitarian aid after Cyclone Ditwah and a $4 billion financial lifeline during the 2022 debt crisis. Operation Sagar Bandhu delivered $450 million in disaster relief without adding to Colombo’s debt burden, while...
Decoding Congress's 1975 Balance‑of‑Payments Language
This is a thread that only Adam Tooze, a few international economist and a couple of very well paid trade lawyers are likely to enjoy … The basic question is what did Congress mean back in 1975 when they wrote about...
Saskatchewan Premier Heads to India for Trade Talks
Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe is leading a week‑long trade mission to India, concentrating on agriculture, potash and uranium. The trip coincides with the Raisina Dialogue and runs alongside Prime Minister Mark Carney’s meetings with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Moe aims...
MEPs Ask Where EU Billions for Africa Came From
MEPs have pressed the European Commission to clarify how the Global Gateway initiative raised its claimed €306 billion in financing. They highlight a stark gap between the €150 billion projected for Africa and the under €10 billion actually earmarked as EU guarantees. The...
Shipper Purchase Orders Hold Steady Despite Tariff Uncertainty
Shippers continue to place purchase orders with Asian factories despite ongoing tariff uncertainty, according to Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka. January TEU volumes fell about 12% year‑over‑year, with imports down 13% and exports down 8%, while empty...
The US and Mexico Need Stronger Financial Cooperation to Disrupt Illicit Financial Flows
The United States and Mexico have launched a new financial‑intelligence partnership to curb the money that fuels drug cartels, highlighted by the recent killing of Jalisco New Generation leader El Mencho. Mexico’s Financial Intelligence Unit and banking regulator have shifted toward...
Depressed Oil‑Gold Ratio Signals Multi‑Year Energy Outperformance
Oil peaked in 2008 at $140 and has fallen sideways since to ~$65 today. In hard-money gold terms, 1 ounce buys 100 barrels of oil. Oil has been deflating for decades. The only time it was cheaper was 2020 when...
Tariff Hikes Boost Inflation Expectations, Curb Durable Purchases
New @ClevFedResearch paper finds US tariff hikes & tariff uncertainty increase consumers' inflation expectations, while uncertainty "strongly discourage[s] consumers from buying durables, especially cars and big-ticket items." https://t.co/IhbQU2Pc4M https://t.co/6C1XUPmqch
New 10pc US Tariff Keeps Aromatics Arbs Shut
The United States imposed a new 10% tariff on imports of benzene, toluene and mixed xylenes (BTX), effectively closing paper arbitrage opportunities despite sizable price premiums over South Korean supplies. With freight costs around $72 per tonne, the tariff neutralises...
Nvidia News Set to Shake Global Markets Amid KOSPI Slump
Just a reminder. With the KOSPI all but a semiconductor ETF in drag, tonight's Nvidia news will have serious global ripples.
Ukrainian Attacks Thrive as Russian Forces Fragment
The Ukrainians remain outnumbered. However, since Russian units are scattered, isolated, and unable to communicate, they are left vulnerable. So, organized Ukrainian offensives are finding success…for now. #ukrainewar #starlink #geopolitics https://t.co/C4sJyTga9A
Moody’s: Port Import Gains From Supreme Court Tariff Ruling May Prove Fleeting
The U.S. Supreme Court struck down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, potentially unlocking refunds on more than $90 billion of duties and lowering landed costs for importers. Moody’s expects a short‑term surge in cargo volumes at major...
Economy Shifts From K-Shape to Emerging “E” Shape
Is this still a K-shaped economy? This was a hot topic of conversation at the #NABE conference this week. In 2026, I told @hdubroff that I see more of "E" shaped economy. https://t.co/rYUsXmGuCy https://t.co/JHiwnPutqZ
Sky‑high Prices Strain Americans, Exposing Trump's Affordability Flaw
Americans are exhausted by prices that remain far above pre-pandemic levels. From a year earlier: Coffee +18.3%. Ground beef +17.2%. Electricity +6.3%. AFFORDABILITY = TRUMP'S ACHILLES HEEL. https://t.co/b1uvKYJPHt
The U.S. Military Must Save Itself Before Saving Others
Jennifer Kavanaugh revisits her 2023 argument that U.S. military aid creates a trade‑off between Israel and Taiwan, noting the calculus has shifted. She now warns that the United States’ own depleted air‑defense munitions and other materiel are the primary constraint,...
Germany Urges China to Let RMB Appreciate, Reversing Stance
Germany joining the chorus call for China to allow the RMB to rise -- a big change from 15 years ago, when Germany didn't think China's currency management was its problem https://t.co/1J5Z0lrxma
Fiscal Policy Dragged Q4 Growth, Boosts Q1
Hutchins Fiscal Impact Measure: Local, state & federal fiscal policy shaved 1 pct pt from GDP growth in Q4. We expect it will be *add* 2.6 pts in Q1 as effects of shutdown are reversed, will be roughly neutral...
Can Project Vault Fortify the US Industrial Base Against Mineral Chokepoints?
In February 2026 the U.S. Air Force faced F‑35 radar delays because gallium supplies were blocked by China, prompting the launch of Project Vault, a $12 billion strategic critical‑mineral reserve backed by the Export‑Import Bank and private investors. Unlike the historic...
EM Currencies Surge, Yet Turkish Lira Slides Amid High Carry
Most EM currencies are managing to rally strongly against the Dollar so far in 2026. Turkish Lira is falling and the worst performer. This despite annual carry of over 30%. The fact that Lira is still falling is a sign...
Rial Depreciates as US Threats Loom Over Iran
FYI: as we wait to see if the Trump Administration will move forward with direct attacks on Iran, this is US Dollar - Iranian Rial exchange rate. The reversion to a float since the beginning of the year does not...
EU Consults on State Aid, Including for Hydrogen, CCS
The European Commission is consulting on revised state‑aid rules that will replace the current framework before it expires on 31 December 2026. The proposal, embedded in the General Block Exemption Regulation, streamlines approvals and exempts climate‑related aid under €30 million per firm or...
Bostic Warns Fed Independence Faces Real, Uncertain Threat
Outgoing Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic signals greater concern about the institution's independence than the more anodyne statements typically offered by his colleagues when the subject comes up He says there's an ongoing threat and the outcome is genuinely uncertain https://t.co/ntwkE73UgE
Dollar Slides vs EM, Brazil's Real Hits Two-Year High
The Dollar is tumbling. Not against the G10, where it's basically stable, but against EM, where it's making new lows almost every day. One of the main beneficiaries of all this is the Brazilian Real, which is the strongest versus...
Venezuela's US Crude Flows Far Shy of Trump's Claims
President Donald Trump claimed the United States received over 80 million barrels of Venezuelan crude, a figure far exceeding reality. Vortexa ship‑tracking data shows U.S. imports of Venezuelan oil totalled about 17.7 million barrels, roughly 300,000 barrels per day, in January and...
Iranian Rial Plummets, Ranks Third Worst Globally
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Iranian rial ranks as the WORLD'S 3RD WORST CURRENCY. The rial has depreciated by 43% against the USD over the past year. RIAL = IN REAL BIG TROUBLE. https://t.co/FmVN6Cuf8I
Excessive Household Debt Dampens Consumer Spending, BIS Finds
Interesting research paper from the BIS and Bank of Korea on the interplay between excessive household debt and consumer spending https://t.co/inCiWR5V6F
South Sudan Lacks Reliable Money Data, Undermining Accountability
South Sudan’s government hasn’t produced RELIABLE MONEY SUPPLY DATA since October 2024. SOUTH SUDAN = NO RELIABLE DATA = NO ACCOUNTABILITY. https://t.co/UAqAIjbHdP
Iran's Inflation Soars to 82%, World’s Second Highest
#IranWatch🇮🇷: Today I measure Iran’s inflation at a SKY-HIGH 82.0%/yr. That's the world's SECOND HIGHEST INFLATION RATE. I remain the only reliable source of inflationary measures in Iran. https://t.co/rjjYgxSo4g
Populism's Anti‑competition Myth Fuels Immigration Misunderstanding
There is a core idea underlying a lot of populism: nobody should have to compete anymore. The problem is, reducing competition is a zero (or even negative) sum game. This misunderstanding drives a lot of confusion about high skilled immigration. https://t.co/sYvbZRJAXJ
Europe's Anti‑Russia Stance Fails: Oil Still Bought
Are the RUSSOPHOBES in Europe still buying Russian oil? The answer is YES. SANCTIONS = NEVER WORK. https://t.co/EGIEz4CjE2
Trump Claims Right to Ignore Law, Destroy Nations
Former British diplomat Alastair Crooke on Trump’s world view: “[Trump] says ‘I will not be constrained by law or by convention or by any of the international institutions’… ‘I have the right to destroy countries.’ ” https://t.co/Bs2ZRsJMLL
Gold Surge Signals Safety; Crypto Remains Risky
Gold and silver pumping tells us money is moving to safety. That’s simply the current appetite of investors. Crypto still trades like is a risk asset. Long-term I’m bullish. Short-term, you need to start respecting where we’re at in the cycle.