Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Mombasa Port Congestion Disrupts Coffee Exports
Severe congestion at Kenya's Port of Mombasa is disrupting East Africa's coffee trade, with major exporter Sucafina warning of missed shipments and rising costs. Truck queues, customs bottlenecks, and limited empty‑container depots have left vessels idle and cargo handovers delayed. The bottleneck extends along the Northern Corridor, affecting landlocked neighbours such as Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi. Tea exporters have already turned to costly air freight to meet UK deadlines, highlighting the broader supply‑chain strain.
Funds Slowly Lifting Wheat Postion
Managed‑money funds have begun easing their long‑standing short stance in wheat, reducing a net short of 97,370 contracts (13.2 million tonnes) after buying back 26,772 contracts in the week to February 17. The spring wheat market remains the most heavily shorted, with...
Waaree Energies, Premier Energies Slip After US Announces 126% Duty on Solar Imports, Firms See No Material Impact
The U.S. announced a preliminary 126% counter‑vailing duty on certain solar imports from India, sending Waaree Energies and Premier Energies shares sharply lower—Waaree down 10% and Premier down 6%. Both companies said they have diversified supply chains and ongoing US...
A Cartload of Fertiliser
European carbon prices have slumped from over €92 to about €72 per tonne, eroding the financial incentive for low‑carbon fertilizer production. The author highlights a stark price contrast by purchasing five kilograms of Russian NPK fertilizer for €6.60, underscoring how...
Tariff Volatility Pushes Global Supply Chains Into Regional Reset in 2026
Genpact’s supply‑chain chief warns that escalating tariff volatility is driving firms to diversify suppliers and shift toward regionalized networks by 2026. Pandemic‑era investments in control towers and risk‑monitoring tools have equipped shippers to react quickly without external advisory projects. Companies...
Japanese Chemical Firms Pivot From China to India
Japanese chemical giants such as Mitsui Chemicals and Sumitomo Chemical are scaling back their China operations and redirecting capital to India. Investment in China dropped 46% year‑over‑year in 2024, while the number of Japanese sites in India rose to 5,205,...
Gold's Historic Premium Signals Potential 2025 Bust
The 2026 Gold Rush Risks a 2025 Bitcoin-Like Bust - At almost 3x, gold has never sustained a greater stretch vs. its 120-month moving average with inflation so low. The graphic highlights a historic oxymoron for the traditional haven: its...
US Treasury Borrowing No Longer Cheap Despite 4% Yield
There's lots of buzz about 10-year Treasury yield falling to 4%. But when you look at this yield vs US peers - hedging those yields back into US Dollars - the US picture isn't nearly so sanguine. The days when...
Marginal Well Models and Russia's Weak Wellhead Economics
Russian oil drilling contracted 3.4% in 2025, marking the first decline since 2021, with a sharp 10% drop in the second half of the year. The slowdown is attributed to a weaker Urals crude price and a stronger ruble, which...
Australia Ships LNG 16,000 Miles to Canada as Asia Demand Slumps
Australia’s Gorgon‑linked LNG exporter sent a cargo aboard the Maran Gas Hector to eastern Canada, covering roughly 16,000 miles – the longest route for Australian LNG to date. The move reflects a sharp slowdown in Asian demand, where shipments to...
Asia Daily: February 25, 2026
China signaled it will weigh counter‑measures after the United States imposed a temporary 15% tariff on all imports, while urging Washington to cancel unilateral duties and resume frank trade talks. A new IISS study warned that ongoing anti‑corruption purges have...
China Boosts Russian Oil Purchases – Oligopsony Looms
China has stepped in to purchase Russian crude that India declined, pushing Russian oil exports to their highest levels in two years. The shift has concentrated buying power among a few Asian importers, driving the Urals‑grade discount to a multi‑year...
Trade, Tariffs, and Trust at Econlib
President Trump used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to unilaterally raise tariffs, prompting legal challenges that culminated in the Supreme Court’s 6‑3 ruling in Learning Resources v. Trump. The Court held that IEEPA does not grant the president authority...
To Harness Saudi Arabia’s Demographic Dividend, Riyadh Must Invest in Human Capital
Saudi Arabia has appointed Fahad Al‑Saif as minister of investment, signaling a pivot from pure capital accumulation to a focus on total factor productivity. Foreign direct investment inflows have surged from roughly $3 billion in 2019 to $22‑28 billion today, while outbound...
Nepal's Soyoil Exports to India Jump Tenfold on Duty Free Access
Nepal's soybean oil exports to India surged more than tenfold in 2025, reaching a record 694,153 metric tons and generating over $1 billion in revenue. The growth was driven by duty‑free access under the South Asian Free Trade Agreement, allowing Nepal...
Govt Plans to Expand Domestic Shipping Industry to Reduce Dependence on Foreign Vessels: Sanjeev Sanyal
India is launching a ₹77,000 crore programme to build a domestic merchant fleet and expand shipbuilding, aiming to cut its reliance on foreign vessels that handle more than 90% of imports and exports. The plan prioritises ship construction, port upgrades, and...
Peripheral Regions Are Overtaking Big Cities as Laboratories of Economic Resilience
New technologies enable small countries and mid‑size regions to out‑pace megacities as testing grounds for AI‑driven governance, renewable energy, and bio‑industrial innovation. Examples from Estonia, Uruguay, Kansas, and Singapore show rapid prototyping of digital services, local energy grids, and agri‑tech...
China’s Scale‑Subsidy Strategy Decimates Global Industries
China didn’t compete. It demolished entire industries through one ruthless strategy: build massive scale, use subsidies and currency manipulation, export at prices no one can match. Furniture, Solar Panels, Telecom Infrastructure, Textiles, Toys, etc. Gone. And 10 more industries are already under attack. My...
State of the Union 2026: What Trump Said — and What the Tourism Industry Heard
President Donald Trump’s 2026 State of the Union emphasized tariffs, massive investment and a “golden age” narrative, while omitting climate and LGBTQ issues. The travel and tourism industry, especially in Europe, interpreted the rhetoric as a potential cost increase and...
How Africa Keeps Losing Despite China V. West Race for Minerals
The United States hosted its first Critical Minerals Ministerial in February 2026, unveiling a preferential trading bloc, price‑floor mechanisms and a $12 billion strategic stockpile to curb China’s dominance. At the same time, a US‑backed consortium struck a $9 billion deal with...
What India’s New Inflation Data Is Hiding | The Great Confusing CPI (Consumer Price Index) Reset
India has unveiled a revamped Consumer Price Index, shifting the base year from 2012 to 2024 and overhauling the basket composition and weighting methodology. The new series shows a headline retail inflation of 2.75% in January 2026, markedly lower than...
Nikkei Index Ends at Record High
The Nikkei Stock Average closed at a record 58,583.12 points, up 2.20% as investors cheered the nomination of two new Bank of Japan policymakers viewed as dovish. The yen briefly slipped past the 156‑yen level before retreating, while the broader...
Home Depot CEO Flags a Disconcerting Lack of Faith in the American Economy: ‘Our Customers Are Telling Us that They’re...
Home Depot reported a 13% drop in Q4 net earnings to $2.6 billion as a stalled housing market curtails home‑improvement spending. CEO Ted Decker said consumers lack confidence, delaying large projects despite low mortgage rates and ongoing price cuts in new...
Fresh Math for World's Fastest Growing Economy: What's Behind India's GDP Revision and Why It Matters
India will revise its GDP series on Feb 27, moving the base year from 2011‑12 to 2022‑23 to better reflect digital services, renewable energy and post‑pandemic consumption patterns. The overhaul introduces double‑deflation accounting, the Proportional Denton method for quarterly‑annual alignment, and...
Sarah Hunter: Defining Full Employment and Its Intertwined Relationship with Inflation
Sarah Hunter explained that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) defines full employment as the highest sustainable job level compatible with low, stable inflation. She highlighted the intrinsic link between labour market balance and the RBA’s price‑stability mandate, noting that...
Bank of Japan Won’t Alter Its Policy Normalisation Path
The Bank of Japan affirmed its commitment to a gradual policy normalisation path, emphasizing data‑driven decisions despite the appointment of two dovish board nominees. While the new members are expected to voice opposition to tightening, the overall board composition remains...
FX Daily: Nvidia Earnings Could Be Big for FX
Ahead of Nvidia's earnings, analysts warn that a miss could trigger broader risk aversion, hitting the most exposed G10 currencies such as the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and Norwegian krone. The USD’s reaction will signal whether AI‑related concerns remain confined...
Structural Change—Canada at a Crossroads
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem warned that Canada faces deep structural shifts as U.S. protectionism, rapid AI adoption, and demographic aging reshape the economy. He noted the central bank kept its policy rate at 2¼ % while highlighting heightened uncertainty around...
US Formally Warned Kyiv over Attacks on Russia that Damage American Oil Majors’ Interests, Says Ambassador
The United States delivered a formal diplomatic warning to Kyiv after Ukrainian drones struck the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, a key export gateway for Kazakh crude that underpins American oil majors' interests. The attack disabled a single‑point mooring,...
Has U.S. Inflation Started Turning Higher Again?
U.S. tariff rates surged to an average of 13% in 2025, yet headline inflation fell to 2.7% year‑over‑year before rebounding in December. Companies initially absorbed tariff costs, but recent PCE data shows they are now passing them onto consumers, pushing...
Romania’s Government Approves Public Administration Reform, Economic Stimulus Package
Romania’s cabinet approved a sweeping public‑administration decree that will cut roughly 10% of civil‑service staff – about 12,800 jobs – and impose unified wage standards on the majority of local units. The same session cleared an economic relaunch package featuring...
SA Bank Says Gold to End Above $6,000/Oz This Year
Standard Bank’s African Markets Conference highlighted a bullish outlook for gold, with its head of precious metals projecting the metal to finish the year above $6,000 per ounce and potentially reach $7,000‑$10,000 next year if interest rates keep falling. Attendees...
Yuan Deposits Rise, Household Growth Slows, Non‑bank Surge Persists
Yicai: "Chinese yuan deposits saw strong year-on-year growth in January, but the pattern of slower household deposit growth alongside faster non-bank deposit growth persisted. Industry insiders said this does not mean that money is leaving the banking system, nor does...
US Holds Nearly All Global Data Center Capacity
The US has 3,960 data centers, more than the next 14 countries COMBINED. MASSIVE capital buildout. MASSIVE electricity demand. https://t.co/2CnR0GW60v
Several Trends Are Shifting Defense Tech Toward Europe
U.S. defense and tech giants are confronting a shifting landscape as Europe pursues digital sovereignty, strategic autonomy, and faster defense innovation spurred by the Ukraine war. New EU rules like the Digital Networks Act and Data Act compel American cloud...
Free Trade Is the Greatest Path to Prosperity and Peace
"In the name of both prosperity and world peace there are few steps that we could take which would contribute more than a complete move toward free trade." -- Milton Friedman https://t.co/5HsJX8FJPm
North Korean Won Plummets, Becomes World’s Second Worst Currency
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the North Korean won ranks as the WORLD'S 2ND WORST CURRENCY. The won has depreciated by over 50% against the USD in the past year. KIM JONG UN'S ANTICS = CURRENCY CATASTROPHE. https://t.co/mODtL8ocdu
UK’s Single Trade Window: Shaping Tomorrow’s Customs Efficiency
I wrote a short blog on the future of the UK’s Single Trade Window on the back of last week’s FT article co-authored by @pmdfoster /1 https://t.co/b4rmt3AXzu
Yen Rebounds, Forint Climbs, Yuan Rallies Onward
JPY reversing weaker HUF gaining (on negative polls for Orban) CNH continues to rally consistently
Indonesian-Chinese Shift Assets to Singapore, I’d Follow
You can tell that Indonesian-Chinese have moved assets to Singapore the past year. I would have done the same.
Yen Rebounds; Intervention Futile Amid Debt Overhang
The Yen is heading back to where it was before the "rate check" from the NY Fed. Intervention doesn't work, especially when the underlying issue is a massive debt overhang and politicians who prefer denial to taking hard, but needed...
Japanese Stocks Hit Record Highs Amid Yen, JGB Selloff
Yen and JGBs Sold on New BOJ Nominees While Japanese Stocks Rally to Record Highs: The dollar was initially sold during President Trump’s State of the Union Address. However, against most of the G10 currencies, it remains within the well-worn...
Turkey's Reserve Losses Signal Strong Depreciation Pressure
Turkey had sustained reserve losses towards the end of last year (blue), even though Lira was falling and USD was weak. That's a sign that depreciation pressure is substantial, a reflection of the large current account deficit. Same old story...
Dovish BOJ Picks Trigger Yen Selloff, Stock Surge
The main development today is the reaction to the two dovish nominations to the BOJ board. The yen and JGBs have been sold, while Japanese stocks raced to record highs. Note there are many large option FX...
Japan PM Takaichi Mocks US over Dovish Central Bank Picks
"Mine is bigger than yours" "Mine is better than yours" "My Central Bank appointee is more dovish than yours" says Japan PM #Takaichi to #Trump after she picked 2 #reflationist candidates #forex $USDJPY #USDJPY
Lagarde Likely to Exit Early, Knot Poised as Successor
Christine Lagarde is expected to leave the ECB before her term ends, paving the way for Klaas Knot to succeed her as president, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists https://t.co/rjUbI1zZMG via @jrandow https://t.co/aOgFWMclPG
BofA Records Highest Euro Allocation, Cuts US Exposure
Bank of America show the biggest positive allocation to #euro assets on record in an impressive global rebalancing. A net 22% say they hold a lower-than-benchmark allocation to US, from just 6% at end of 2025. The backlash appears to...
Ramadan Continues Amid Libya’s 56% Annual Inflation.
#LibyaWatch🇱🇾: Ramadan celebrations continue, but soaring prices leave many in Libya struggling. Today, I measure Libya’s inflation at 56.3%/yr. THE WEST'S REGIME CHANGE, WITH THE DECAPITATION AND REMOVAL OF GADDAFI = DESTROYED LIBYA. https://t.co/velLOmEvbM
Shanghai Loosens Homebuying Rules to Combat Property Slump
Bloomberg: "Shanghai eased homebuying rules, in the latest attempt by authorities to contain the nation’s prolonged property slump." https://t.co/7gAmMs7Onw
Spring Festival 2026 Consumer Sales Jump 13.7% YoY
1/3 Xinhua: "According to China's value-added tax invoice data, the 2026 Spring Festival holiday saw the average daily sales revenues of consumer-related industries increase by 13.7 percent from last year's Spring Festival holiday." https://t.co/kWT8ZTr29T