Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
MOSCOW BLOG: Russia as a Supermarket Dressed up as a Country
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov announced a sweeping fiscal overhaul, lowering the oil‑price budget rule threshold by $1 each year for five years to shift revenue reliance from oil and gas to domestic consumption. The move follows a sharp drop in hydrocarbon earnings, which now account for just 20% of total income, while VAT already supplies 40% of the budget after a recent rate hike. Siluanov aims to replenish the National Welfare Fund to cover the projected 2026 deficit of RUB 3.8 trillion. The strategy seeks to insulate Russia’s finances from escalating EU sanctions on energy exports.
Iran's Araqchi Aims to Reprise Role as Nuclear Dealmaker
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araqchi, a veteran negotiator backed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, is spearheading a fresh push to revive a nuclear deal and avert U.S. military action. He frames Iran’s approach as “bazaar‑style” bargaining—patient, continuous, and strategic—while warning that...
What’s Next for China’s Yuan Payment System? Adviser Banks on Close Trade Partners
Former ICBC chairman Chen Siqing urged China to embed its Cross‑border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) into bilateral trade frameworks, especially with Belt‑Road and RCEP partners, as geopolitical tensions heighten reliance on non‑US payment networks. He highlighted CIPS’s rapid growth, processing...
Chile Moves to Fast-Track New Lithium Deals
Chile’s mining ministry is set to file five new lithium contracts in March, just days before President Gabriel Boric departs office, as part of a push to accelerate the 2023 national lithium strategy. The contracts target the Salar de Ascotán,...
Operationalizing AI at the Federal Reserve
Federal Reserve Governor Waller outlined a systematic rollout of artificial intelligence across the central bank. The Fed has built a common, general‑purpose AI platform that all Reserve Bank employees can access for drafting, summarizing, and analysis. Specialized AI tools support...
US Airforwarders Warn New Tariffs Will Create Disruption
U.S. President Donald Trump announced a temporary 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, to be applied for 150 days after a Supreme Court decision nullified the prior regime. The Airforwarders Association (AfA) warned the measure will...
Ukrainian Steel, Agricultural Sectors in the Fight for Market Share Despite Non-Stop War
Ukraine’s agriculture and steel sectors remain economic pillars despite war‑driven disruptions, contributing roughly 7‑8% and 5.7‑7.2% of GDP respectively. Grain exports have fallen to their lowest level since the invasion, while sunflower crushing is 9% below last year and 26%...
China Lithium Prices Surge as Zimbabwe Suspends Raw Mineral Exports
China’s lithium carbonate futures surged after Zimbabwe suspended all raw mineral and lithium concentrate exports. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange contract jumped 6.07% to 178,020 yuan, having peaked above 9% earlier in the session. Zimbabwe, the continent’s top lithium producer, shipped...
Ghana to Channel Artisanal Gold Into Formal Trade to Boost Revenue
Ghana announced an artisanal and small‑scale mining (ASM) gold formalisation programme that will channel roughly 127 metric tons of gold per year into official trade. The Ghana Gold Board, via the newly created GoldBod, will purchase a minimum of 2.45 tons weekly,...
China's 90% Model Threatens 20 Industries—Act Now
My new book China's 90% Model launches March 17 To mark the launch of my book, I am hosting an exclusive session for my LinkedIn community. Are You Aware? Do You Know? In one hour I will take you through: 🔹What China's...
Tshisekedi Prioritises Gold Sector Reform to Boost State Revenue
President Félix Tshisekedi announced a comprehensive reform of the Democratic Republic of the Congo's gold sector, targeting the massive revenue loss from smuggling and informal trade. The plan, presented at a Council of Ministers meeting on 20 February 2026, seeks...
Collateral Economic Damage in Russia-Ukraine Crossfire
The U.S. State Department lodged a formal protest with Ukraine after a drone strike hit Russia’s Black Sea oil terminal in Novorossiysk, damaging American economic interests. Ukrainian Ambassador Olha Stefanishyna confirmed the warning, urging Kyiv to refrain from targeting U.S....
Financial Statements of the ECB for 2025
The European Central Bank posted a €1.3 billion loss for 2025, a sharp improvement from the €7.9 billion deficit recorded in 2024. The turnaround stems mainly from a dramatic reduction in net interest expense as liability remuneration rates fell and TARGET balances...
Trump’s Secret Weapon in the Rare Earth War
China’s decades‑long dominance of rare‑earth processing is being challenged as the United States and allies pour over $8.5 billion into reshaping the supply chain. REAlloys Inc. has become the only North‑American company that can convert rare‑earth concentrates into metals and alloys,...
What Will the Fed’s “Warsh Era” Bring?
Kevin Warsh’s nomination to replace Jerome Powell places a deeply divided Federal Reserve at a crossroads. Warsh argues the institution needs a revamped analytical framework and a “balance‑sheet theory” rather than a singular focus on rate cuts. He suggests structural...
Agoa Extension Brings Relief, yet Policy Uncertainty Clouds US-Africa Trade Future
The U.S. Senate trimmed the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) renewal to a single‑year extension, sparking optimism among exporters but deepening long‑term uncertainty. Simultaneously, Washington imposed tariffs of 10‑30% on key African products, and non‑tariff measures continue to raise...
Eurozone February Final Consumer Confidence -12.2 vs -12.2 Prelim
Eurozone consumer confidence held steady at a final -12.2 in February, matching the preliminary reading. Economic confidence slipped to 98.3, missing forecasts, while industrial confidence fell to -7.1 and services confidence dropped to 5.0, both below expectations. Employment expectations declined...
India Braces for Unusually Hot March that Can Put Key Crops at Risk, Sources Say
India is expected to experience one of its warmest Marches on record, with temperatures projected up to 7 °C above normal in Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and parts of Madhya Pradesh. These states produce more than 80 % of the nation’s...
ECB President Lagarde: My Baseline Is that I Will Stay Until the End of My Term
ECB President Christine Lagarde told reporters her baseline assumption is that she will remain in office until the end of her six‑year term. Analysts note her wording leaves room for an earlier exit, a scenario that has been floated in...
Debate Needed: Jane Street's Role in Bitcoin Liquidity
There’s a lot of heated views about the Jane Street Terraform story. Those who say “nothing to see here” and no big market maker conspiracy. And those who think something very untoward has been happening for ages. I think both...
Zimbabwe's Lithium Ban Likely Short‑Lived, Minimal GDP Impact
The Zimbabwe export ban seems to be due to transfer pricing, ie producers understating grade/value of exports. Similar to what we saw from the Chinese company that operated Bald Hill in Australia a few years ago. On my calcs, average Zimbabwe...
Brazilian and Malaysian Ports Ink MoUs
Brazil’s Suape Industrial Port Complex signed two MoUs with Malaysia’s Westports and Northport at Port Klang, establishing a permanent communication channel between the two port groups. The agreements aim to launch new long‑distance maritime routes and expand logistics links, potentially...
Fire Horse Freight Frenzy: VLCC Markets Smash Records in Supertanker Anniversary Year
The 2026 Year of the Fire Horse marks the 60th anniversary of the world’s first VLCC, Idemitsu Maru, and has sparked a surge in supertanker charter rates, with spot prices topping $200,000 per day and rumors of a one‑year deal...
Christine Lagarde: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament
Christine Lagarde told the European Parliament that euro‑area inflation has fallen sharply, reaching 1.7% in January and hovering near the ECB’s 2% target. Despite the data, surveys show households still perceive price growth about 1.2 percentage points higher than official...
Thailand’s Gulf Energy Seeks More April LNG
Thai private‑sector importer Gulf Energy announced a new tender for two additional April LNG cargoes, targeting delivery windows of 22‑23 April and 25‑26 April. The offers are to be priced against the northeast Asian spot LNG index, with the tender closing on...
S Korea's SK Hynix Invests $15bn in Semiconductor Plant
SK Hynix announced an additional 21.6 trillion won ($15 bn) investment to expand its first semiconductor fab in Yongin, raising the total spend to 31 trillion won. The funding, slated for March 2026‑December 2030, will add five clean rooms, bringing the site to six and...
CMB.TECH Seals Five-Year Capesize Charters
Belgian shipowner CMB.TECH has secured five five‑year charters for its capesize bulkers, adding $304 million in revenue and lifting its contract backlog to roughly $3.05 billion. The deals, which start in the coming months, include vessels built between 2014 and 2018 and...
LEI for the Global Economy Was Unchanged in December
The Conference Board reported that the Global Leading Economic Index (LEI) held steady at 0.0% in December, marking the first month of flat growth since the index’s inception. Major economies displayed mixed signals: the United States slipped 0.2%, China declined...
China’s Role: Minor Export Market, Major Input Supplier, CNY Undervalued
It means a lot less than this. As an export market China is way less important than the US to Germany/ the EA. As a source of consumer & intermediate inputs China is of course a massive supplier,...
Japan and Korea Hit Record Highs on Nvidia Rally
Asia stocks rally: Japan & S.Korea hit records as Nvidia lifts chipmakers; China/HK mixed, BOJ inflation data a risk. Trade: buy Korean memory names on pullbacks. 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
US Stock Market | Fed Policy in Wait-and-Watch Mode as Markets Eye Next Rate Move
Federal Reserve officials signaled that the current policy rate is appropriately balanced, with St. Louis Fed President Albert Musalem noting no immediate need for cuts. Musalem warned that a rise in layoffs combined with weak job creation could tip the labor...
Southeast Asia’s Grab Finally Turns a Profit
Southeast Asian super‑app Grab reported its first full‑year profit in 2025, posting a $200 million net gain after narrowing losses from $1.7 billion in 2022 to $158 million in 2024. Revenue climbed roughly 20% to $3.4 billion as transaction volume rose 21% to $22 billion...
US Stock Market | Investor Rush Sparks Historic Scramble for New Bond Issuances
Investor demand for U.S. corporate bonds has surged to historic levels, making new issuances harder to access and allocations tighter. Barclays’ analysis of TRACE data shows competition in investment‑grade debt is up 15% and high‑yield debt up 30% compared with...
NZD/USD Holds Gains Around 0.6000 as US Dollar Falters on Tariff Concerns
The New Zealand dollar extended its rally for a third straight session, hovering around the 0.6000 level against the US dollar during Asian trading. The move reflects pressure on the US dollar as President Trump defended tariffs and the IMF warned...
Amazon's $50B AI Bet Boosts NVDA Play
Macro: Big-ticket cloud/AI capital flows concentrate. Key: Amazon pledges $15bn now, $35bn tied to IPO/AGI. Risks: valuation/tech execution. Trading insight: Buy NVDA on AI infra demand. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Dollar Remains Dominant; No Viable Reserve Alternatives Yet
My @BrookingsInst blog on whether US reserve currency status is eroding. There’s no sign the fall in the Dollar is accompanied by foreign reserve managers bailing on the greenback. There simply aren’t any viable alternatives, including the Euro… https://t.co/U189pIWHJ4
Kenya, Uganda in Race to Change Sacco Rules as Losses Hit Members
Kenya and Uganda are overhauling Sacco regulations after a series of collapses and fraud that have eroded member confidence. In Kenya, the Kuscco scandal exposed a $103 million loss, prompting a committee to recommend raising the minimum membership to 100 and...
Brazil's Trade Surplus Ignored, Real Remains Undervalued
No other EM has transformed itself in the past decade quite like Brazil, which has shifted its trade balance into a structural surplus. This shift has gotten no recognition in markets whatsoever. The Real remains deeply discounted compared to pre-COVID... https://t.co/1DJ37H8dXi...
Dollar Hits Post‑Election Low, Signals Ongoing Debasement
The Dollar yesterday made a new post-election low against EM (black line). Except for the tariff turmoil in Apr. '25, USD has been falling in a straight line against EM currencies. This is the best leading indicator for Dollar direction....
Turkey's January Trade Deficit Hits Near‑worst, Lira Tumbles
Turkey's trade deficit for January - out today - shows further deterioration. Chart below shows the trade deficit every January from 2000 - 2026. The 2026 number is the worst deficit except for 3 prior years (2018, 2022, 2023). This...
Brazil Real Rebounds to 4.50 as Dollar Weakens
After Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Brazil's Real went from $/BRL 6.00 to 4.50 in a few months as rising commodity prices lifted the terms of trade. Now the Real is gaining along with most other EMs as Dollar...
Yen Rebounds While RMB Gains Accelerate in FX Consolidation
Within the continued consolidation of the FX market, there are two standouts: 1) After being the only G10 currency that fell yesterday, the yen is the only one higher today. 2) the RMB's gains have accelerated. https://t.co/AiTduO3fl9 https://t.co/BxiHf6en8T
Importers Weigh Discount for Guaranteed Immediate Tariff Refunds
If you are an importer, what % discount would you accept to get paid the full amount on your tariff refunds right now with 100% certainty and you keep the money even if there are no refunds.
One‑Third of South Africans Unemployed, Economy Stagnates
In, South Africa, one in three people are OUT OF WORK. No wonder its economy has STAGNATED. https://t.co/8TbCpugNqS
IMF Confirms US Fiscal Boost Exceeds Estimates
People keep telling me I'm wrong about the US fiscal boost this year, but the IMF just published this.. thats bigger than our estimates btw https://t.co/HKAuw6DenI
Inside How Liquidity Providers Power ETFs and Markets
Join me at 2pm GMT today on Spaces to discuss what’s really going on behind the scenes when liquidity providers like Jane Street support key ETFs and markets. https://t.co/a9uhteuOzP
UBS Predicts 20% Chinese Stock Rally on Inflation
Chinese stocks may gain another 20% as rising inflation expectations translate into better earnings, according to UBS Securities Asia https://t.co/X14DnpuQpY
China's Rare Earth Export Curbs Still Limit US Supply
Chinese rare earth export controls are still choking off lots of material to the US
Trump's Pressure Pushes Modi to Diversify India’s Trade Partners
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: Thanks to Trump’s threats and tariffs, Modi has pivoted and opened India’s doors to Japan, Brazil, Canada & the EU. MODI IS FASTER ON HIS FEET THAN YOU THINK. https://t.co/I5SCjNBPfI
Nuanced Take: BoP Deficit Matters,
I actually don't think Mark and I are that far apart (tho I wouldn't start by arguing that a BoP deficit is meaningless, as I certainly find value in some cuts of the balance of payments + get annoyed when...