Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
China Is Playing the Long Game over Iran
China is maintaining a cautious diplomatic stance toward Iran despite a 25‑year strategic partnership and its role as Tehran’s primary oil buyer, accounting for over 80% of Iranian exports in 2025. Beijing publicly urges restraint and dialogue while opposing Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons, fearing regional escalation that could threaten vital shipping lanes. The restraint is not a sign of unreliability but a long‑term strategy to deepen economic dependence and gain leverage as U.S. pressure on Tehran intensifies. China’s approach blends energy security, geopolitical calculus, and a bid to shape the Middle‑East balance of power.
India’s Fiscal Deficit Touches ₹9.8 Lakh Crore in April–January
India’s fiscal deficit for April‑January 2026 hit ₹9.8 lakh crore, about 63 % of the government’s full‑year estimate. Net tax receipts climbed to ₹20.94 lakh crore, while non‑tax revenue rose to ₹5.57 lakh crore. Total government outlays increased to ₹36.9 lakh crore, with capital expenditure reaching ₹8.4 lakh crore. The widening...
Planqc Recognized as Key Player in Europe’s Quantum Computing Ecosystem
A new BCG and UnternehmerTUM report crowns planqc as a leading European player in neutral‑atom quantum computing. The analysis projects quantum technologies could generate $450‑850 billion in global economic value by 2040, underscoring Europe’s need for industrial‑scale, sovereign solutions. It stresses...
VLCC Rates – How High and for How Long?
The crude tanker market is experiencing a sharp surge, with VLCC spot hires topping $200,000 per day and one‑year time‑charter equivalents reaching $135,000. Baltic Exchange data show composite VLCC rates near $169,000 daily, while International Seaways (INSW) reported Q4 2025...
Treasury Adapts as AI and Tariffs Reshape Supply Chains
Treasury teams are confronting a new era where AI, blockchain and tariff volatility are reshaping supply‑chain finance. A Citi Institute report finds 36% of large corporates now use AI in trade, with 72% seeking working‑capital gains and liquidity release. Tariff...
Electric Vehicles and Industrial Policy Could Transform African Economies
African nations sit atop a critical share of the world’s cobalt and other minerals essential for electric‑vehicle batteries, yet most of the value is still captured abroad. The author argues that proactive industrial policy—mirroring China’s use of special economic zones,...
Tariffs Fail to Knock Markets and Meta Strikes $60bn AI Chip Deal with AMD
The episode examines the fallout from recent US tariff moves, noting that despite uncertainty and mixed corporate news—such as Aston Martin’s job cuts—the FTSE 100 remains near record highs. It highlights the AI arms race, focusing on AMD’s $60 billion chip...
ECB Consumer Expectations Survey Results – January 2026
The ECB’s January 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey shows median inflation perception falling to 3.0% and 12‑month inflation expectations dropping to 2.6%, while three‑year expectations hold at 2.6% and five‑year expectations ease to 2.3%. Nominal income‑growth expectations rose to 1.2%, driven...
Why Trump’s Criticism of Maliki Strengthens Him in Iraq
President Trump publicly rejected Nouri al‑Maliki’s nomination as Iraq’s prime minister, a move that back‑fired by rallying Shiite factions around the banner of national sovereignty. The episode exposes Iraq’s elite‑driven, communal power‑sharing system, where prime‑minister selection occurs outside parliament and...
Oil Producers Negotiate Ending Windfall Tax with UK Government
The UK Treasury is weighing an early repeal of the Energy Profits Levy, a windfall tax that now sits at a 78% headline rate on North Sea oil and gas. Ministers have been meeting industry groups to assess the impact...
CMA CGM Fills Gap Between Japan and Europe
France’s CMA CGM has introduced Ocean Rise Express, a weekly direct service that links Japan and South China with North Europe. The route is operated solely by CMA CGM using a fleet of fourteen 7,000‑to‑10,000 TEU vessels, calling ports such as Kobe, Yokohama,...
S Korea’s Hanwha to Buy LNG From Venture Global
South Korea's Hanwha Aerospace has signed a sales and purchase agreement to buy 1.5 million tonnes per year of liquefied natural gas from U.S. exporter Venture Global, with deliveries slated to start in 2030 and run for 20 years. The deal...
The Market Brief
U.S. equity markets opened with a sharp selloff, pulling the S&P 500 and Nasdaq toward monthly losses while the Dow remains on track for a February gain. Despite the decline, about 70% of S&P constituents closed higher, indicating broad participation....
Waiting for the Next Cycle Could Sink Your Shipping Strategy
Shipping is undergoing a structural reset as geopolitics forces trade routes to shift, turning volatility into a permanent operating condition. The Red Sea crisis and sanctions on Russian energy demonstrated how quickly voyages lengthen and insurance costs rise, exposing owners...
SF FedViews: Prospects for AI-Related Activity Add to Uncertainty Around the Economic Outlook in 2026
Despite a fourth‑quarter slowdown to 1.4% annualized, the U.S. economy is projected to resume solid, above‑trend growth in the first half of 2026. Labor market indicators show stabilization, with January adding 130,000 jobs and the unemployment rate edging down to...
This Week's Chart, Next Week's Markets
The Economist’s language analysis shows State of the Union speeches have increasingly dwelled on past achievements, a trend echoed by President Trump’s nostalgic rhetoric. Investors are left questioning the outlook for a country that spends more time reminiscing than forecasting....
New Chinese Entrant Into the Cape Sector
National Fortune Shipping Group, a Chinese firm incorporated in April 2025, announced the acquisition of two second‑hand capesize bulk carriers—NF Fortune and NF Future—at $18.5 million each. The vessels, the 177,200‑dwt Mikata and the 185,900‑dwt Ally, were built in 2005 and...
Why Systematic and Global Macro Are Back at the Center of Institutional Portfolios:
Institutional investors are rebalancing portfolios toward quantitative and global macro hedge‑fund strategies as volatility, rate uncertainty, and geopolitical shocks return. The shift reflects a deeper focus on true diversification, liquidity, and defensive alpha rather than pure yield hunting. Modern quant...
Strategic Lithium Reserve Needed to Stabilize Supply
I’ve submitted formal comments into the docket. My core message: supply diversification alone is not enough. If we want durable investment in allied lithium production and processing, we must address price volatility. Lithium’s boom-bust cycles have repeatedly delayed capital formation and midstream...
Global Funds Return to India as Earnings Outlook Improves
Global funds are pouring back into Indian equities, buying about $2.1 billion of shares in February – the strongest monthly inflow in eight months. The rebound follows a record outflow in 2025 and is driven by a newly signed US‑India trade...
Weaker Dollar Raises Import Costs, Boosts Export Appeal
"When the dollar falls in value... it takes more of our dollars to buy stuff from abroad." That’s the basic math of a weaker currency: imports cost more, and so do the everyday items with imported parts. The upside is...
WA Takes Its Critical Minerals Roadshow to North America
Western Australia’s Mines and Petroleum Minister David Michael is leading a delegation of critical‑minerals firms on a trade mission to Canada and the United States. The team will hold meetings in Toronto, New York and Washington DC to promote Australian lithium, rare‑earth...
Investment Hinges on Capital Cost, Not Cash Windfalls
The tariff refund issue is fun to follow. But it doesn't matter much for the macroeconomy. Business investment determined more by cost of capital than cash availability. Keynesian multiplier very low on one-time transfers to businesses. And debt impact large...
Japan Capital CPI Slips Under BOJ Target in Policy Test
Tokyo’s February CPI showed headline inflation at 1.6% year‑on‑year, while core inflation slipped to 1.8%, falling below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for the first time in 16 months. The core‑core measure, which excludes fresh food and energy, accelerated...
Energy Insiders Podcast: China’s Clean Energy Surge Reshapes Coal, Oil and the Grid
China’s clean‑energy surge is reshaping its energy landscape, with record solar installations and a 30% jump in wind capacity driving more than a third of the nation’s economic growth. Lead analyst Lauri Myllyvirta highlighted that renewable build‑out now outweighs traditional...
Renaissance at Market Speed: UK Wholesale Finance in 2026
At the Goldman Sachs EMEA Head of Trading conference, FCA chief executive Nikhil Rathi outlined a sweeping reform agenda aimed at cementing the UK’s position as a global wholesale‑finance hub. He highlighted recent regulatory wins – from tighter market‑abuse enforcement...
PBOC Cuts FX Risk Reserve Ratio to 0%, Slowing Yuan Appreciation
China's PBOC will cut the foreign‑exchange risk reserve ratio for forward FX sales from 20% to 0% starting March 2, 2026. The move aims to ease hedging costs, curb excessive yuan appreciation, and signal a shift from emergency policy tools....
Google's TPU Rental to Meta Fuels AI Chip Rivalry
Macro: AI compute demand surges. Google rents TPUs to Meta in a multibillion deal, sharpening TPU vs NVIDIA rivalry; AMD also supplies Meta. Risk: Google manufacturing limits. Trade: Buy GOOG. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
China Faces Capital Shortage, World's Least Crowded Trade
"If you look at the hard numbers, China is capital starved right now—it's the least crowded trade in the world." - Ed Grefenstette (EP.488) With thanks to @AlphaSenseInc, @MorningstarInc, and Ridgeline.
The EU's Path to Service Growth and Clean Tech
The EU can boost growth by deepening single‑market integration for high‑value services and by accelerating clean‑tech investments. While the United States pursues protectionist manufacturing policies and retreats from climate commitments, it still enjoys a large services surplus that could wane....
China Realizes Mao’s Dream, Leads Global South
"how China became the leader of the global south" will be a macro theme receiving tons of ink in coming years. Incidentally, this was always Mao's dream
Eurozone Inflation Dovish, yet France‑Spain Surprises Challenge Doves
EZ inflation still looks dovish to us for February, but upside surprises in France and Spain this morning doing doves no favours; the "in a good place" mantra to stay. Let's see what Germany's state CPIs throw at us in...
From Tariffs to Trade Flows: Diversion Effects and China’s Exports to the EU
U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports have coincided with a near‑10% year‑on‑year rise in China’s exports to the EU during 2025, but the surge began before the tariff hike and has not accelerated since. A difference‑in‑differences analysis of over 3,000 product...
China's True Trade Surplus Far Larger Than Reported
China's surplus is understated after 2022, as China adjusted its BoP methodology to shade its reported surplus down -- and given China's size, its surplus is massive v the global economy (even more true using customs trade) 1/2
HK Inflation Near Target, Currency Board Proves Effective
Hong Kong’s inflation rate comes in at 1.1%/yr in January, JUST A TAD below its de facto 2%/yr inflation target. Hong Kong’s Dollar-Based Currency Board is WORKING LIKE A CHARM. https://t.co/7NNKGjeDXe
Stocks Fall on Credit, War Jitters as Oil Surges: Markets Wrap
Wall Street stocks slipped as investors grew uneasy about artificial‑intelligence‑driven disruption and mounting private‑credit risks that fund many tech firms. The S&P 500 edged toward its worst monthly performance since March, while bonds and gold rallied and oil prices neared $67...
US ITC to Study Impact of Stripping China’s Trade Status
Reuters: The U.S. International Trade Commission said on Thursday it would investigate the economic impact of revoking China’s permanent normal trade status over a six-year period, a move that would likely increase tariffs on Chinese imports. https://t.co/T0xSqrLDgN
Korea Faces Speculative Bubbles Approximately Every Five Years
It seems like Korea goes through these speculative bubbles every five years or so https://t.co/jCSmYlbkaj
DFC Reauthorization Is Here: The Good, the Bad, and the Next Steps for Connectivity
The U.S. Development Finance Corporation (DFC) received a major re‑authorization embedded in the FY2026 NDAA, boosting its contingent liability limit to $205 billion and expanding geographic eligibility for ICT projects. The bill creates a $5 billion equity revolving fund—though unfunded—and grants new...
Nvidia Secures Limited H200 Chip License for China
Nvidia said it secured a license to ship a small number of its less advanced H200 chips to customers in China, inching forward in its bid to return to the world’s largest semiconductor market Small number? https://t.co/qcOey50mOL
U.S. Military Buildup Casts Shadow Over Iran Talks
The United States and Iran held a third round of indirect nuclear talks in Geneva, with Omani mediation reporting significant progress and technical discussions slated for Vienna next week. Simultaneously, Washington has launched its largest Middle East military buildup since...
Short‑term Gains Ignite the Citrini Doom Loop
This is precisely how the Citrini doom loop begins. The prospect of short term gains like this outweighs concerns over longer term externalities and negative feedback loops.
900 Companies Sue Over $100B Illegal Trump Tariffs
Almost 900 companies are SUING for refunds from the more than $100 Bn in ILLEGAL tariff revenue Pres. Trump collected in 2025. All Trump's ILLEGAL tariffs have done is MAKE ENEMIES and create LEGAL & FISCAL CHAOS. https://t.co/I1jP900jcz
Canada Should Brace for Tariffs No Matter What, US and Canadian Officials Say
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer warned that tariffs on Canada are here to stay, linking higher duties to reciprocal market access under the Trump administration’s “America‑first” agenda. Canada now faces a 10% ad valorem levy on non‑USMCA goods, 50% tariffs on...
Economic Rebound Fuels Surge in Job Postings
What if the job postings theme was more of a macro story than an AI one and now that the economy is re-accelerating so are job openings?
Hanwha and Greece’s Onex Shipyards Partner to Expand U.S. Shipbuilding
South Korean conglomerate Hanwha Power Systems and Greece’s Onex Shipyards & Technologies signed a trilateral agreement, witnessed by U.S. officials, to develop LNG‑powered newbuildings and floating storage‑regasification units. Hanwha will supply critical equipment to Onex’s two Greek shipyards while sharing...
Canada’s Inflation On Target, Money Supply Grows Below Golden Rate
Canada's January inflation (CPI) is ON TARGET at 2.29%/yr. Canada’s money supply (M3) is growing at 4.02%/yr. That’s a bit below Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of ~6-8%/yr, a rate consistent with Canada's 1-3%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY...
Chicago Fed Forecast Shows February Unemployment Near 4.3%
The Chicago Fed Real-Time Unemployment Rate Forecast for February is 4.28%, so not likely to be much different from the BLS’s official reading last month. https://t.co/fmDwn7LlNk https://t.co/nw9NVUBD9I
How China Is Betting Cheap AI Will Get the World Hooked on Its Tech
China is accelerating a strategy to flood the market with low‑cost AI tools, aiming to make its platforms indispensable worldwide. ByteDance’s Seedance 2.0, a text‑to‑video generator, exemplifies this push, while Chinese labs have been accused of harvesting OpenAI‑Claude responses through...
AI-Driven Bottlenecks Threaten Prices, Smartphone Market to Drop 13%
The ai advances are real, but they imply some very unpleasant bottlenecks for a bunch of industries, and risk stoking prices in a variety of goods. Tariffs arent the only source of short run inflation risk