Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Advancing the Enterprise in Volatile Times: Supply Chain as a Source of Reason
Enterprises facing tariff spikes, freight cost surges, and geopolitical fragmentation must separate measurable (quantitative) shocks from structural (qualitative) risks. Leaders gain advantage by tightening controllable levers—pricing discipline, bonded inventory, freight timing, and proactive supplier negotiations—rather than blaming external volatility. A three‑horizon approach aligns tactical actions (0‑12 months) with strategic sourcing diversification (18‑24 months) and long‑term network redesign (3‑5 years). Building a horizontally connected "Constellation of Value"—strong partnerships, shared visibility, and synchronized operations—turns relationship equity into financial resilience during uncertain times.
IMF’s No‑Bailout Stance Pushes China, Ecuador Back to Markets
Striking that China has taken $2 billion off the table since 2021 while the IMF put $2 billion in ... Talk about not using IMF funds to bailout China back during the pandemic turned out to be just that, talk. You...
Why the Concern over Capital Flows
The Reserve Bank of India introduced tighter rules on external commercial borrowings to curb volatility in the capital account, even as the current account remains stable. While gross foreign direct investment (FDI) has averaged $78 billion annually, equity repatriation has surged,...
EM-DM Convergence: A Secular Trade on Deglobalization
Bill Campbell argues that deglobalization is creating a secular convergence between emerging‑market and developed‑market sovereign debt. While investors remain fixated on U.S. policy, structural shifts have strengthened EM fiscal positions and left DM yields underpriced. This mispricing opens a yield‑enhancing,...
Did Indonesia Just Lock Itself Into an Energy Future It Can’t Afford?
Indonesia’s new trade agreement obliges the country to import $15 billion of U.S. oil and gas each year, contradicting President Prabowo Subianto’s pledge for energy self‑sufficiency. The deal was signed to sidestep tariffs that were later nullified, leaving Indonesia locked into...
Businesses Anticipate Obstacles Ahead: Statistics Canada
Statistics Canada’s Q1 2026 Business Conditions survey shows 59.2% of firms expect cost‑related obstacles, down slightly from Q4 2025, while optimism rises to 73.1% for the next year. Inflation remains the top concern, cited by 40.8% of businesses, especially in...
Maersk Pulls U.S., Other Sailings From Red Sea
Maersk announced it will reroute several U.S. and other services from the Red Sea to the Cape of Good Hope, citing unforeseen security constraints in the region. The changes affect both ME11 and MECL routes, with one westbound and two...
Weekly Gold (XAU/USD) Forecast: US-Iran Standoff Trumps US PPI, Setting S...
Gold surged past the $5,200 per ounce mark, targeting a seventh consecutive monthly gain as investors seek safety amid escalating US‑Iran tensions. The geopolitical flashpoint has revived haven demand, outweighing the muted impact of a weaker US Producer Price Index....
Australian Bonds Attract Global Hedge Fund Flows as AI Trade Loses Momentum
Global hedge funds are redirecting capital into Australian government bonds as AI‑driven equity valuations lose steam. Inflows to Australian bond funds topped AUD 4 billion in 2025, the strongest in four years, driven by the country’s 4.7% 10‑year yield—the highest among developed...
One Month in, Can Honduras’ New President Put the Country on the Path to Lasting Economic Gains?
Honduras’ new president Nasry Asfura has launched a suite of early reforms focused on fiscal austerity, expanding the Temporary Import Regime and re‑joining the World Bank’s ICSID to boost investor confidence. His administration secured a meeting with former President Donald...
STR/Tourism Economics Forecast Shows Uneven 2026 Hotel Growth Across Major Global Markets
The 2026 hotel market forecast from STR and Tourism Economics shows uneven growth across regions. Europe’s RevPAR is projected to rise to 1.1% driven by the Milan‑Cortina Olympics and luxury demand in Paris, while 11 European markets face occupancy pressure...
Producer Prices Surge, Profit Margins Hit Record Highs
🔥 My colleague Meagan Martin-Schoenberger has updated the producer price index data released today. The index showed the largest increase in core goods (wx food and energy) prices since early 2022; profit margins soared to their highest on record, with...
AI's Asset Demand Shifts Money From Tech to Commodities
The framing here just seems so clear to me. AI buildout requires a ton of real assets and commodities to complete Cyclical re acceleration is bullish commodities Everyone is overweight tech and AI is now questioning the validity of the multiples...
Merz in China: Germany Between De-Risking and Strategic Partnership
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz concluded a two‑day visit to China, pledging a comprehensive strategic partnership while emphasizing the need for de‑risking amid trade imbalances. He highlighted persistent overcapacity and urged Beijing to play a constructive role in curbing Russia’s war in...
Sticky US PPI Sour Risk Mood; Sterling Hit by UK Political Blow
US producer‑price index jumped 0.5% month‑on‑month in January, outpacing expectations and reigniting concerns that inflationary pressures remain entrenched. The surprise lift pushed Dow futures down over 500 points and nudged the 10‑year Treasury yield below the 4% threshold, suggesting markets...
The Future of Japan’s Regional Banks: Demographics, Mergers, and a Tight Market
Japan’s regional banks, once pillars of local growth, now face shrinking deposits and borrowers as the nation records its 16th consecutive year of population decline. Consolidation is accelerating, highlighted by the 2025 Aomori Bank‑Michinoku Bank merger that now controls about...
Inflation Pressures Persist Despite Bullish Equity Outlook
Scott @ScottWapnerCNBC @HalftimeReport kindly forward this to Slink, @saraeisen (who has expressed the view that inflation is declining) and your panelists who mostly insist as part of their bullish stance on equities that inflation has been conquered. From Peter Boockvar...
PPI Spikes 0.8%, Ending Rate‑cut Hopes
PPI just printed 0.8% vs 0.3% expected. Let that sink in. Producers are paying MORE. That cost gets passed to YOU. This is the hottest PPI in over 6 months and it just killed every rate cut fantasy on Wall Street. Buckle up —...
Global Stocks: Barclays Shares Fall as Collapse of UK Specialist Mortgage Lender Revives Wider Worries
Barclays shares slipped 1.6% after reports it faces roughly £600 million exposure to the collapsed UK specialist mortgage lender Market Financial Solutions (MFS). The fallout also highlighted potential losses for Santander and Jefferies, underscoring broader concerns about the fast‑growing private‑credit market....
EUR/JPY Pressured Lower by Yen Strength, Softer German Inflation
EUR/JPY slipped to around 184.00 on Friday, marking a second consecutive decline of 0.10%. The drop was driven by a stronger Japanese yen after mixed inflation data showed a 1.6% year‑on‑year rise, with core CPI at 1.8% above expectations. Meanwhile,...
Germany Annual CPI Inflation Declines to 1.9% in February Vs. 2% Expected
Germany's flash CPI data showed annual inflation easing to 1.9% in February, undercutting the 2% market forecast. The month‑on‑month CPI rose 0.2%, while the ECB’s preferred HICP climbed 0.4% monthly and posted a 2.0% annual rate, also missing expectations. The...
Canada Hotels Posts Record RevPAR in 2025
Canadian hotels closed 2025 with a record RevPAR of $142.89, a 4.1% year‑over‑year increase, according to Cushman & Wakefield. Growth was uneven, as Ontario and Quebec fell short of the national average while domestic leisure travel buoyed other regions. New...
Why Sourcing Shifts Are Easier Said than Done when Battling Tariffs
Tariff volatility under the Trump administration is forcing U.S. brands to rethink where they source products. Executives like Brooklinen's COO note that shifting production to a new country takes months, not weeks, and domestic cotton supplies are limited. Companies are...
US–Caribbean Tensions, Cuba Sanctions and the Future of Regional Tourism
At CARICOM’s 50th heads‑of‑government meeting, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized Washington’s renewed focus on the Caribbean, tying security, energy and investment to the region’s tourism‑driven economies. He warned that transnational crime and energy instability threaten visitor confidence, while...
Metals May Lift Commodities, Yet Risks Favor Decline
Deflation May Reign If Metals Meet High-Price Cure - That orange juice and cocoa were the worst-performing commodities in 2025, after being among the best in 2024, may foreshadow metals in 2026. In the history of the Bloomberg Commodity Spot...
EU Carbon Prices Slip 20% Amid Reform Push
CHART OF THE DAY: The cost of European CO2 allowances has fallen ~20% in recent days after several key countries asked Brussels for a reform. Italy has gone as far as asking the Emissions Trading Syste to be suspended. CO2...
Ontario Vows More Cash to Boost Mining
Ontario’s government is pledging additional cash to accelerate mining development, announcing C$140 million for road work to the Ring of Fire and billions for high‑capacity power lines. The province upgraded Kinross Gold’s Great Bear project under the One Project One Process...
Canada’s Q4 GDP Dips as Inventories Plunge
The Canadian economy ended the year on a softer note as a sharp decline in business inventories drove down real gross domestic product by an annualized 0.6% in the fourth quarter. The decline was partially offset by increased household spending,...
Core Wholesale Prices Jump 0.8% in January, Outpacing Forecasts
"Core wholesale prices rose 0.8% in January, much more than expected" https://t.co/LVa2AuC787 "For the full year, core wholesale prices accelerated 3.6%" Big Jan26 drivers: -professional & commercial equipment wholesaling services -Trade services -metals https://t.co/SIuJIRE7bD
Spanish Analyst Warns Gibraltar Shift Would Harm Spain, Morocco
The Blind Spot's resident Spaniard says Brits shouldn't worry about Gibraltar turning Spanish. Were that the case, it would set off a series of dominoes that could devastate both Spain and Morocco. https://t.co/gFok91QaFp
Low Treasury Yields Revive MMT Enthusiasm Flood
Feeling listless and disjointed as I await the inevitable barrage of "#MMT was right all along" posts now that 10-year Treasury yield has fallen below 4%... https://t.co/ANQCCAXJms
Strong Current Accounts Can't Stop Taiwan, Korea Currency Weakness
Taiwan's currency has depreciated even as Taiwan's current account has soared (to 20% in calendar 2025, with 30% expected in 26). But Taiwan is not alone -- the Korean won is also very very weak even as Samsung...
Sticky PPI Keeps Rates High, Drives Yield Decline
The PPI is not falling, it has become sticky. It means rates stay higher. That will slow things down. Thus bond yields are falling. Makes sense? God knows https://t.co/XxE0jqRJ3L
Thin Retail Margins Force Sellers to Pass Tariffs
"Many sellers simply don’t have much of a choice but to pass on the cost of tariffs. 'At a certain point—because retail is, as you know, a mid-single digit operating margin business—if people’s costs go up by 10%, there aren’t...
Fed's Massive Balance Sheet, Not Warsh, Needs Trimming
"Kevin Warsh Isn’t Crazy, the Fed’s Big Balance Sheet Is" The obvious path to shrink the Fed's balance sheet is to go back to a corridor system. It worked for over 100 years as @josephsternberg points out. The problem: the establishment...
China's Central Bank Eases Dollar Purchases to Curb Yuan Rally
China Central Bank Moves to Tame Yuan Rally—China’s central bank on Friday moved to combat a rally in the yuan by making it cheaper for importers to buy dollars and sell the Chinese currency. @RebeccaYFeng https://t.co/uVx5NuUmDE
Trump Trade Anger Boosts Canadian Domestic Spending and Tourism
Trade is among people, and retaliation can be too: "Anger over President Trump’s trade policy has fueled a notable increase in Canadian spending on domestic products and local tourism, according to research from the Bank of Canada." https://t.co/Nmzo5Yn2ay
Expect Multiple Severe Bear Markets in Your Investing Career
Bear markets happen more often than many realize, and most people will have to navigate multiple severe downturns during their investing years. https://t.co/3M4SDMlWOY
Post‑July Tariff Uncertainty May Stall Business Investments
"Meanwhile, new questions about what the tariff regime will look like after July, when Trump’s new global duties expire, could again put many business investments on hold, limiting the productive effect of any more immediate influx of cash." https://t.co/PeFBYyWQqH https://t.co/0oVZHlSMF9
Norwegian Krone Leads Safe‑Haven Surge Amid Debt Monetization
The debasement trade is about markets searching for safe havens from debt monetization. That's driving up safe haven currencies. Norwegian Krone just took the lead (orange), while Swedish Krona (red) is in second place. Swiss Franc (black) is in third... https://t.co/hjA5jhrvvn...
Bloomberg Overlooks Key Current Vs. Financial Account Split
An interesting article from Bloomberg -- but one that misses an important part of the real story by following the recent advice of CATO and the WSJ oped page and ignoring the classic split in the balance of payments between...
US Producer Prices Surge Past Expectations in January
US January Producer Price Index prints at 0.5% vs 0.3% expected - previously 0.4% m/m Core #PPI at 0.8% vs expected 0.3% - previously 0.6% m/m Core PPI at 3.6% vs 3.0% expected - previously 3.3% y/y/ Headline PPI 2.9% vs expected 2.6%...
Governments Will Counter AI-Driven Deflation Pressure
AI will not materialize into prolonged deflation as governments will be forced to act. A few weeks ago in my weekly Scouting the Tape piece I wrote the below. Give my presentation from last summer's Monetarium event a watch. https://t.co/FFulg5I5cg https://t.co/opgAb1hH2N
Tariff Payments Show Voters, Not Foreigners, Foot the Bill
The process and legal fights over paying back import taxes will help shove tariffs back into voters’ minds, as well as provide them an excruciatingly detailed civics lesson in who literally pays the levies. (Hint: it’s not foreign governments.) https://t.co/N8dOe6rapr
Yuan
Not a total surprise -- the pace of appreciation was clearly pulling in funds betting on a further rise, and the yuan is heading toward levels where the PBOC has resisted appreciation in the past ... 1/
Real Yields Plunge, Not Breakeven Inflation, Despite AI Hype
With all the chatter about AI disruption, I would have expected lower breakeven inflation to be driving the fall in nominal Treasury yields, since AI is a deflationary shock. But that's not what's happening at all. It's real yields that...
Gold's $5,000 Level Marks Pause, Not Sell‑Off
After the January sell-off, gold has settled above $5,000. So that sell-off wasn't a sell-off at all, it's a pause. We saw the same thing after the pull-back in October after the IMF/WB meetings. A short pause before the debasement...
Emerging Markets Resume Currency Interventions Amid Falling Dollar
The Dollar is falling steadily versus EM. Brazil and Mexico are allowing their currencies to rise, but China, Korea, Thailand, Taiwan and Chile are intervening to stop their currencies from rising against the US Dollar. EM currency manipulation is back... https://t.co/4z57KA153r...
Give Citizens Equity, They'll Protect Against Nationalization
If you want American citizens to defend your company from nationalization, you probably want to let them own a piece of it. Just my two cents.
PBOC Eases FX Forwards, Stalls Yuan Rally Amid USD Consolidation
$USD consolidation continues, but PBOC eliminates reserve requirements for fx forwards and makes it easier for banks to provide liquidity offshore. Stops yuan rally for the moment. Denmark calls snap election. Greens win in the UK. https://t.co/hLRGJsDgY2...