Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Hormuz Traffic Slows After Strike On Iran
Oil tankers are increasingly bypassing the Strait of Hormuz following the US and Israel airstrikes on Iran, prompting major shipping lines to issue cautionary directives. While the waterway remains officially open, Bloomberg tracking shows a buildup of idle vessels both inside the strait and in the Gulf of Oman. Japanese carrier Nippon Yusen and Greek operators have advised their fleets to reassess or avoid transits, and several gas tankers bound for Qatar have paused voyages. Despite the slowdown, about 17 tankers still transited the strait at the time of reporting.
Mainstream Economists Overlook Private Debt, Miss Recession
1/8 I predicted the Great Recession 3 years before it happened. It might sound ridiculous, but mainstream economists have convinced themselves that private debt does not matter. They only monitor government debt. EconomicTheory
Trump’s Iran Threats Spark Retaliation, Oil Surge, Prolonged Conflict
Trump communicates intention of full destruction of Iran leadership and military while calling for regime change. Iran hits all of its neighboring countries who were likely on the more apprehensive side of US taking action in the first place and...
DRC’s Cobalt Quotas Reshape the Global Critical Metals Market
The Democratic Republic of the Congo announced strict cobalt export quotas—18,125 tonnes for Q4 2025 and 96,600 tonnes for 2026—while reserving 10% of production as a strategic stockpile. The policy, aimed at curbing smuggling, stabilising prices and capturing more domestic value,...
Iran Strike May Push Oil to $73.90 Resistance.
$USOIL monthly - The Israeli-U.S. strike in Iran will propel the price of crude oil to the 1st yearly resistance at 73.90. Above that there's the June 2025 high at 77.64. These are the 2 potential upside targets for next...
FIIs Pour Rs 22,615 Crore Into Indian Equities in February. Can Iran-Israel Conflict Flip the Trend?
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned net buyers in February, pouring Rs 22,615 crore into Indian equities, with Rs 19,782 crore going to secondary markets and Rs 2,832 crore to primary issues. However, a sharp sell‑off on February 28 saw FIIs dump Rs 7,536 crore, dragging the Nifty and Sensex...
Record US Crude Exports Threaten Brent Price Rally
Is Crude Oil Becoming a Rally to Sell? US crude and liquid fuel net exports approaching 4 million barrels a day in 2026 -- the highest ever -- may be a primary price-pressure factor for oil. My graphic shows an annual...
PortSide Stories: Yokohama
The Port of Yokohama remains Japan’s busiest container gateway, handling millions of TEUs each year and accommodating the world’s largest vessels. Its deep‑water berths link Japan’s export‑heavy industries—automobiles, electronics, food—to markets across Asia, North America and Europe. Beyond logistics, the...
Predict the Next Global Shift with Real‑Time Intelligence
Can you afford not to know what’s coming next? We are entering one of the most significant geopolitical and economic shifts of our lifetime. Power balances are changing. Conflict cycles are accelerating. Markets and global systems are entering a new phase. Global Forecaster...
Vanguard’s India Portfolio Shines: 12 Stocks Rally up to 120% in FY26, 8 Fresh Q3 Picks
Vanguard Fund’s India portfolio surged, now valued at ₹69,100 crore, a 60% jump from the March quarter. The fund holds stakes in 48 BSE‑listed companies, placing it among the top three active foreign institutional investors in the country. Twelve of its...
Houthis Vow to Resume Attacks Following Iranian Strikes
Following US and Israeli strikes on Iran, Yemen’s Houthi rebels announced they will resume attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea, ending a four‑month lull. BIMCO warns that ships linked to US or Israeli interests face heightened risk, though...
Japan's Consumption Tax Suspension May Not Result in Lower Food Prices
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi plans to suspend Japan’s 8 percent consumption tax on food for two years to ease inflation pressures. The proposal meets skepticism from economists and small‑business groups who argue the cut may not translate into lower retail prices....
Iran-Israel Conflict: Expect a Gap-Up Opening in Gold and Silver. Here's How to Trade Bullion on Monday
The recent pre‑emptive Israeli strike on Iran has reignited geopolitical tension, prompting a sharp rally in precious metals. While Indian MCX gold and silver futures slipped modestly on Friday, COMEX prices surged, with gold up 2% to $5,296 per ounce...
The Head Fake: Buying the Chinese Stocks Post-Ruling Dip
The U.S. Supreme Court’s February 20 decision struck down IEEPA‑based tariffs, removing the worst‑case tariff risk for Chinese e‑commerce firms. The market’s initial rally faded as investors fretted over a possible 15% global tariff, creating a temporary dip in Alibaba...
BTC Below $67k: Stay Short Until $70k
Macro: BTC $70k. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Elliott Wave Analysis of USDJPY – March 2nd, 2026
USDJPY recorded a solid monthly gain in February as Japan's inflation slipped lower, strengthening expectations of a more dovish Bank of Japan. The currency pair’s upward momentum has reignited speculation that it could approach a multi‑decade high. Elliott Wave analysts...
Lithium Demand Rebounds 25% as Low‑cost Supply Tightens Price Gap
Lithium bottom: demand +25% as EV/ESS rebound; SQM+Codelco JV raises low-cost supply, tightens cost curve; prices ≈70% below 2022 — overweight low-cost lithium producers. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
China’s Gold Hoard Surges, Likely Underreported
🔥We are probably not bullish on gold enough: China's official gold holdings are now worth a record $370 BILLION, doubling in just 1.5 years. The value has more than TRIPLED since 2022. China is buying 10 TIMES more gold than it officially reports👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/china-sold-a-significant-amount-of-us-treasuries-in-2025
Hong Kong’s 2nd Richest Man Li Ka-Shing to Sell UK Electricity Operator for $14B
Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka‑shing's CK Infrastructure Group agreed to sell UK Power Networks to French utility Engie for £10.5 billion (about $14.2 billion). The deal, slated for mid‑2026, is part of a sweeping portfolio overhaul that includes potential divestments of ports and...
Global Growth Cools, Central Banks Pause; Short EUR/USD
Macro: global growth cools; central banks pause. Key factors: easing inflation, mixed earnings, USD strength. Risks: policy missteps, China slowdown. Trade: short EUR/USD. 📉 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Malaysia’s Economy Faces Geopolitical Shock and Record IPO
Major news to track on February 27, 2026: 1. The Friday Power-Play: Malaysia's Economy in the Crosshairs A critical convergence of geopolitics and capital is reshaping Malaysia’s financial landscape this morning. From high-stakes Cabinet decisions on US tariffs to the largest...
Argentina’s Milei Scores Win with Controversial Labor Overhaul
Argentina’s Senate approved President Javier Milei’s Labor Modernization Act, a sweeping overhaul that lengthens the workday to 12 hours, cuts severance payouts, eases firing, and curtails union activity. The legislation aims to bring the country’s 40% informal workforce into the formal sector,...
The Week in Charts: GDP Growth, National Monetization Plan, IT Troubles
India’s economy grew 7.8% in the December quarter, a deceleration from 8.4% in the prior quarter, driven by weaker agriculture, non‑manufacturing output and reduced government spending. The statistics ministry’s revised base year projects FY25‑26 GDP at 7.6%, up from 7.1%...
EU Targets Pre‑consumer Scrap in CBAM to Stop Evasion
EU proposes CBAM treatment for pre-consumer aluminium and steel scrap to curb circumvention and boost traceability. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/02/eu-cbam-pre-consumer-scrap-proposal.html
Iran Bans Hormuz Traffic, yet Tankers Still Sail
Iran is sending out warnings on VHF announcing the banning of all ships from the Strait of Hormuz. However, traffic is still moving. What's Going on with Shipping will be monitoring traffic through the Strait. https://t.co/0rPIFY825Q
Trump, Iran and Geopolitical Mind Games
The Trump administration has escalated threats of military action against Iran while covert nuclear talks continue, and Tehran’s state media claim the pressure is a distraction linked to the Epstein scandal. In parallel, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit...
EU Extends GSP Benefits to Special Economic Zones
News feed cleanse and the nerdiest post you'll see all weekend. The EU's new Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP) rules will also apply to goods manufactured in special economic zones and export processing zones. Which is pretty cool.
Turkey's Lira Faces Pressure Amid Iran War Uncertainty
When markets open tomorrow night, they'll be hunting for winners and losers from war with Iran. Turkey is a big energy importer (red) and its trade deficit excluding gold and energy is near record levels (blue). Turkish Lira will be...
Pakistan-Afghanistan Live: Iran, EU Urge Dialogue Amid Deadly Clashes
Escalating clashes along the Pakistan‑Afghanistan border have intensified after Taliban‑aligned drones struck Pakistani military camps in Miranshah and Spinwam, prompting Islamabad to launch airstrikes on Afghan cities, including Kabul. The violence shatters the October cease‑fire and revives fears of a...
Gold +22%, Silver +31% Amid Global Chaos
The chaos doesn't stop. There's been Greenland, a yield spike in Japan, private credit ructions and AI. Now it's Iran. Easy to miss the forest for the trees and that's precious metals. Gold is up 22% this year. Silver 31%....
Community Buzzes Over 5‑Minute Macro Pro Q&A Clip
Our community is buzzin' about this 5 min clip from this week's Macro Pro Q&A Show https://t.co/MxH68qpK7Y
How America’s Action in Venezuela Guaranteed Guyana’s Oil Future
U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in a January 2026 raid, removing the military threat to Guyana’s Essequibo region and clearing the path for the country’s oil expansion. Guyana’s offshore Stabroek Block, operated by ExxonMobil with Chevron and CNOOC,...
March Markets Driven by Existing Forces, No Policy Shifts
March 2026 Monthly: March seems to be more about the unfolding of current forces driving the capital markets, rather than new forces or policies. All the G10 central banks but the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meet in March, and...
Qatar Airways Halts Cargo Amid Iran Strikes, Freight Costs Surge
Qatar Airlines is pausing cargo operations as the Iran strikes play out. Prices and transit times on Asia to Europe air freight spiking.
How Sanctions Can Help Stabilise Global Oil Supply
A G7‑backed price cap on Russian oil, introduced in 2022, is shown to boost near‑term extraction while curbing global oil prices and volatility. The cap neutralizes market power and reduces the option value of holding reserves, shifting producer incentives toward...
Germany's Factories Run Below Average Amid Green Sanctions Pressure
Germany’s manufacturing capacity utilization is only running at 77.5% in January. Its long-term average since 1991 is 83.2%. GERMANY’S GREEN MADNESS & SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA ARE A DEADLY ONE - TWO PUNCH. https://t.co/S87Xs4GTJY
Egypt's Oversized Money Growth Fuels 12% Inflation
Egypt's inflation rate is 11.9%/yr. Egypt's money supply (M3) is growing at 20.6%/yr. That's ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate range from 11.1%/yr- 15.1%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its inflation target range of 3%/yr-7%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY...
US Says It Supports Pakistan's 'Right to Defend Itself' Against Afghan Taliban
The United States publicly affirmed its support for Pakistan’s right to defend itself against attacks by Afghanistan’s Taliban, whom Washington designates as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist group. The statement follows a rapid escalation after Pakistan’s airstrikes on Afghan territory...
Are Tariffs Still Viable for US 2026 BOP?
New at THE OVERSHOOT: Tariffs and "International Payments Problems" https://t.co/A8fIZJSUSB It has long been accepted that tariffs (eg Section 122) are an acceptable tool for managing BOP issues. The real question is whether they would be useful for the U.S. in 2026. https://t.co/CDdBRF2zxx
Druckenmiller Bets on Higher Rates, Cuts AI, Values Sizing
Key takeaways from Druckenmiller - Sees potential for higher long rates thanks to productivity growth - Out of the AI trade at this point - What he learnt from Soros was sizing - Visualizes the future 18-24 months out - Sells if valuation becomes...
Recommended Weekend Readings
The newsletter highlights a resurgence of U.S. geopolitical pressure on China, from Trump’s revived Monroe Doctrine in Latin America to a new 15% global tariff. Demographic data show major population gains in Texas and Florida while New York and California...
India Poised to Gain From U.S. Tariff Shift
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal and U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick just discussed tariff policy in New Delhi. After SCOTUS struck down Trump’s emergency tariffs, India stands to be one of the BIGGEST BENEFICIARIES. INDIA = PLAYING THE LONG GAME. https://t.co/ywtbcs3yl1
Trump Praises Pakistan, Signaling Shift From India
#PAKWatch🇵🇰: Trump on intervention in Afghanistan–Pakistan: “I would, but I get along very well with Pakistan—great PM, great general, leaders that I respect. Pakistan is doing terrifically well.” More evidence of Trump’s PIVOT away from India towards Pakistan. https://t.co/aEvLxL5Ygh
Who Runs Venezuela Now? Trump, Oil and the Fight for Power
In January 2026 the United States orchestrated the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, installing an interim administration that quickly aligned with Washington. President Donald Trump has since proclaimed control over Venezuela’s vast oil reserves, sealing new contracts with U.S....
Global Debt Hits Record High, Driven by China, US
SCMP: "Global debt climbed to a record high in 2025, rising at the fastest pace since the pandemic, with China and the United States accounting for a large share of the increase, according to a new report." https://t.co/GSQFwnXnb0
Brent Contango Signals Market Downplays Iran Disruption Risk
Brent DFL rolling into contango suggests the market is fading the Iran oil disruption risk @Rory_Johnston A US strike will probably still happen But traders aren’t pricing sustained barrels off the market. #Oil #Brent #Iran #EnergyMarkets #Geopolitics
US‑Iran Tensions Heighten Rare Earth Supply Scrutiny
The potential U.S. conflict with Iran will create an interesting dilemma regarding weapons re-arming and supply chains. Rare earth elements will come under even greater scrutiny, especially given the already strained trade relationship with China.
February: Metals and Energy Surge While Stocks and Crypto Dive
February... Silver $SLV: +13% Energy $XLE: +10% Gold $GLD: +9% International Developed $VEA: +6% EM $IEMG: +6% Oil $USO: +3% Bonds $AGG: +2% S&P 500 $SPY: -1% Nasdaq 100 $QQQ: -2% Financials $XLF: -4% Mag 7 $MAGS: -7% Software $IGV: -10% Bitcoin $IBIT: -22% Fartcoin $FART: -31%
New Global PMI Upswing Expected Through 2027
It’s been a while since I’ve seen so much focus on the ISM. Our work has over 15 individual series that lead this data (regressions don’t work well out of sample), between 6 and 18 months and another dozen that...
Cuba’s 49% Inflation Ranks Fifth Worldwide
#CubaWatch 🇨🇺: Today, I measure Cuba’s inflation rate at 49.0%/yr. That makes Cuba the WORLD’S FIFTH-HIGHEST INFLATOR. SOCIALISM = POVERTY. https://t.co/62I1XycBU8