Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
US Says It Supports Pakistan's 'Right to Defend Itself' Against Afghan Taliban
The United States publicly affirmed its support for Pakistan’s right to defend itself against attacks by Afghanistan’s Taliban, whom Washington designates as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist group. The statement follows a rapid escalation after Pakistan’s airstrikes on Afghan territory sparked retaliatory Taliban fire along the border, which both sides describe as an "open war" with heavy casualties. Washington, a long‑time non‑NATO ally of Pakistan, expressed sorrow over the loss of life while reiterating the Taliban’s failure to honor counter‑terrorism commitments. The flare‑up highlights deep‑seated disputes over cross‑border militant sanctuaries.
Recommended Weekend Readings
The newsletter highlights a resurgence of U.S. geopolitical pressure on China, from Trump’s revived Monroe Doctrine in Latin America to a new 15% global tariff. Demographic data show major population gains in Texas and Florida while New York and California...
Who Runs Venezuela Now? Trump, Oil and the Fight for Power
In January 2026 the United States orchestrated the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, installing an interim administration that quickly aligned with Washington. President Donald Trump has since proclaimed control over Venezuela’s vast oil reserves, sealing new contracts with U.S....
Oil Prices Hit 8-Month High as US-Iran Tensions Fester
Oil prices jumped to eight‑month highs on Friday as diplomatic hopes between the United States and Iran faded, reigniting geopolitical risk premiums. Brent crude breached the $85‑per‑barrel mark while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose above $80. Traders cited potential supply...
Dow Closes More than 500 Points Lower After Hot Inflation Report, Mounting Concerns About AI Impact
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 521.28 points, or 1.05%, to finish at 48,977.92 after a hotter‑than‑expected producer price index showed 0.5% inflation in January. The broader market fell, with the S&P 500 down 0.43% and the Nasdaq off 0.92%, as...
US rPET Demand Under Sustained Pressure: PRC
US recycled PET (rPET) demand remains weak, prompting concerns at the Plastics Recycling Conference. The recent shutdown of Evergreen Recycling’s Ohio and New York plants cuts domestic processing capacity by roughly 16%, tightening an already strained market. Low‑priced imports and abundant...
The Chokepoint at the Center of the US-Iran Standoff
Brent crude has nudged into the low $70s as U.S.-Iran tensions rise, underscoring the market’s sensitivity to the Persian Gulf. About 20% of global oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow chokepoint that could be disrupted by conflict....
Interpreting the Shrinking Term Spread
The 10‑year versus 3‑month Treasury spread has been compressing sharply, as high‑frequency data show a pronounced narrowing. Analysts note that the traditional term premium calculation omits heightened default risk, which is evident in rising U.S. Treasury CDS spreads. When inflation...
Week Ahead: US Dollar Slips on Trade Uncertainty as NFP, Eurozone HICP Loom
US Dollar slipped this week, trading near 97.60 on the DXY, down about 0.2% as traders digest the Supreme Court’s decision that declared Trump‑era tariffs illegal and the administration’s subsequent new levies. A stronger‑than‑expected Producer Price Index failed to lift...
Traders May Rotate Into Bitcoin if UBS’ Bearish US Stocks View Comes True
UBS downgraded U.S. equities to neutral, warning that high valuations, a weakening dollar and policy uncertainty limit upside for the S&P 500. The downgrade coincided with Bitcoin slipping below $65,500 as the market reacted to stronger-than‑expected U.S. inflation data and a...
Opaque Private Debt Markets Reveal Growing Financial Fragility
Private debt markets have been struggling for some time. These are nonbank lenders, largely in the private equity space, although they do rely upon bank credit. This is one of many fragilities in the financial market and the economy more...
Beyond the Third Neighbor: Mongolia-US Ties in an Era of Great Power Competition
The United States and Mongolia marked 39 years of diplomatic ties while deepening their Strategic Partnership with flagship projects such as the $462 million MCC Water Compact and a USTDA‑backed aviation safety program. Mongolia’s recent accession to the Trump‑led Board of...
UK Appoints Barclays Executive as Top Bank of England Regulator
The UK government appointed Katharine Braddick, a former regulator now Barclays group head of strategic policy, as the Bank of England's deputy governor for prudential regulation. Her five‑year term begins on July 1, 2026, succeeding Sam Woods. The move follows finance...
Matson Q4 Ocean Profit Stable
Matson reported marginally weaker fourth‑quarter results as container volumes slipped 2.3% year‑over‑year, driven by a 7.2% drop in China shipments amid ongoing trade‑war pressures. Ocean operating income dipped to $136 million on revenue of $704.2 million, but the company was partially offset...
YSpace, York University Open the Door Between Canada and Korea’s Tech Ecosystem
YSpace, the entrepreneurship hub at York University, has signed two memorandums of understanding with South Korea’s Korea Business Angels Association and the Seoul AI Hub. The agreements give YSpace a formal mandate to help Korean startups enter Canada and to...
US Ignores China AI Threat to Corporate Profits
Notable IMO b/c thus far this sell-off narrative seems to be focused solely on how US AI could disrupt the US. No one seems to be worried yet about what happens to US corporate profits if China AI disrupts the US. If...
During Lula’s Visit, South Korea and Brazil Agree to Revive Mercosur Trade Talks
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva visited Seoul, upgrading the bilateral relationship to a strategic partnership and signing ten MOUs across AI, biotech, agriculture, health and security. The summit’s headline outcome was the decision to revive stalled Mercosur free‑trade...
Where We Are in the Storm | ClubGPF Clip with George Friedman
In a recent ClubGPF live discussion, Geopolitical Futures chairman George Friedman revisited his book *The Storm Before the Calm* to argue that America is moving through an 80‑year institutional cycle. He compared today’s political polarization and economic anxiety to three...
GDP Revision May Widen FY27 Fiscal Deficit Ratio, Raise Debt Path Concerns
India's new series GDP data for FY26 shows nominal output ₹345.47 lakh crore, about 3.3% below the budget’s estimate. This revision pushes the FY27 fiscal‑deficit ratio to roughly 4.46% of GDP, up from the projected 4.31%, and lifts the FY27 debt‑to‑GDP ratio...
GBP/USD Slips as US PPI Lifts US Dollar, Middle East Risks Rise
GBP/USD slipped about 0.10% to 1.3469 as US core PPI jumped 3.6% YoY, reinforcing expectations of a less dovish Federal Reserve. The stronger dollar was further supported by rising geopolitical risk in the Middle East, which hurt risk‑on sentiment. In...
GDP Revision Trims FY26 Size to ₹345 Lakh Crore; $4 Trillion Mark May Slip
India’s nominal GDP for FY 2025‑26 has been revised down to ₹345 lakh crore, a 3.3 % cut from the earlier ₹357 lakh crore estimate. In dollar terms this puts the economy at roughly $3.79 trillion, postponing the $4 trillion milestone to a later fiscal year. The downgrade...
Germany Plans to Scrap Subsidy for Small-Scale Rooftop Solar
Germany plans to abolish fixed feed‑in tariffs for rooftop solar installations under 25 kW starting in 2027, arguing that falling equipment costs now make small systems economically viable without subsidies. The draft proposal, seen by Bloomberg, would shift policy emphasis toward...
Russia’s Rosatom Will Continue Foreign Nuclear Power Plant Projects Despite UK Sanctions
Russia’s state‑owned nuclear group Rosatom announced it will press ahead with its overseas nuclear power‑plant projects despite the United Kingdom’s new sanctions targeting three of its subsidiaries. The UK imposed nearly 300 measures aimed at curbing Russian energy revenues, citing...
China: Policy Mix Guides 2026 Growth Path – UOB
UOB analyst Ho Woei Chen projects China’s 2026 real GDP growth at 4.7%, with the National People’s Congress likely setting a target range of 4.5‑5%. Inflation is expected to stay low, with a CPI target near 2% and actual inflation around 0.9%....
European Rate Markets: Eurobonds, By-Elections and the Spring Statement
In this episode, Francis Diamond and Aditya Chaudhia discuss European rate markets, focusing on euro‑area bond issuance, German duration outlook, and UK political developments. They assess the limited near‑term impact of proposed EU defence‑related Eurobonds, maintaining a neutral stance on...
How to Deter Chinese Aggression Against Taiwan, with Rep. John Moolenaar
In a February 27 2026 Atlantic Council podcast, Rep. John Moolenaar, chairman of the House Select Committee on China, argued that deterring Chinese aggression in the Taiwan Strait is a core U.S. national‑security interest. He discussed the economic stakes of the U.S.–China rivalry...
AI-Driven Recession Threatens Benefits of Lower Mortgage Rates
Cheering for lower mortgage rates has always been a delicate balance of hoping for payment relief w/o a wider economic downturn. In other words, getting a cheaper 30-year fixed without a big increase in unemployment or a stock market crash. The fact...
AI Agents and the Future of Global Trade with Alibaba’s Kuo Zhang - Ep. 291
In this episode, Kuo Zhang, President of Alibaba.com, explains how the platform’s new AI agent, Axio, is transforming global B2B trade by handling complex sourcing tasks, from interpreting natural‑language requests to managing compliance, logistics, and supplier communication. He highlights real‑world...
IAEA Report Says Iran Must Allow Inspections, Points at Isfahan
The International Atomic Energy Agency released a confidential report urging Iran to grant unrestricted access to all nuclear facilities, highlighting the Isfahan site where a new enrichment plant and tunnels store uranium enriched up to 60%. The agency estimates Iran...
UK HRC Discount to North EU Expands
UK hot‑rolled coil (HRC) prices are trading at an average €62 per tonne discount to north‑European benchmarks after Tata Steel UK closed its last blast furnace in September 2024. Imports have surged from 770,000 t in 2023 to 1.4 million t in 2025,...
PBOC Allowing Gradual RMB Appreciation, Not Stopping It
The claim by @robinbrooks_j & others that the PBOC is intervening to stop the RMB's advance strikes me as a misunderstanding. This is the 7th month of RMB gains. If PBOC is intervening to "stop" CNY rise, it is not...
Cuba’s 49% Inflation Ranks Fifth Worldwide
#CubaWatch 🇨🇺: Today, I measure Cuba’s inflation rate at 49.0%/yr. That makes Cuba the WORLD’S FIFTH-HIGHEST INFLATOR. SOCIALISM = POVERTY. https://t.co/62I1XycBU8
2 Olympic Gold Medalists Show the Mixed Results of China’s Efforts to Bring Back Diaspora Talent
China’s municipal government paid Olympic skiers Eileen Gu and Beverly Zhu a combined $6.6 million in 2025, highlighting Beijing’s renewed push to lure diaspora talent. The effort builds on the legacy of the Thousand Talents and Qiming programs, which offer generous...
Gold Hits Record 8-Month Streak as S&P Falters
The S&P 500 is headed for its first RED month since April 2025. Meanwhile, GOLD is headed for its 8th consecutive GREEN month. That’s gold’s longest winning streak in history. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/sNJYx0tj3z
Next Week’s Trading Outlook: Key Markets, Themes, Risks
I discuss market conditions, key markets to watch, core themes and top global macro event risk (including #NFPs) for next week's trading in this week ahead video: https://t.co/lp8DLESugk https://t.co/0HVj5C19GQ
U.S. Moves to Permanently Seize Sanctioned Tanker ‘Skipper’ and $150M Oil Cargo
The U.S. Department of Justice filed a civil forfeiture complaint to permanently seize the motor tanker Skipper and its 1.8‑million‑barrel Venezuelan crude cargo. Authorities seized the vessel off Venezuela in December 2025 after it operated without nationality and falsely claimed...
ISM only Matters when Bitcoin Moves Opposite Direction
No one cared about the ISM when it was dropping for years while BTC went up. Now that BTC is going down and the ISM has gone up, it’s suddenly the indicator everyone cares about
PPI Stays Elevated at 2.9% Amid Fed QE Shift
January’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) was just released. PPI REMAINS ELEVATED at 2.9%/yr. As the Fed pivots away from Quantitative Tightening to Quantitative Easing, it’s having trouble putting the INFLATION GENIE BACK IN THE BOTTLE. https://t.co/PsHdiaQZzH
Bitcoin Drops 3% as Inflation Hots up Again, and a Quiet Services Spike Just Changed the Rate Cut Story
Bitcoin fell about 3% after January's producer‑price index (PPI) posted a 2.9% year‑over‑year rise, outpacing the 2.6% consensus. The surprise was driven by a services‑inflation spike, with trade‑service margins up 2.5%, while consumer‑price inflation (CPI) cooled to 2.4% YoY. The...
Orbán Deploys Troops, Labels Ukraine Threat to Energy
PM Viktor Orbán has deployed troops & police to protect Hungary’s critical energy infrastructure. Orbán cites an alleged "oil blockade" & "blackmail" from Ukraine. It’s as clear as the nose on your face that Hungary, a member of NATO, views Ukraine as...
U.S. Critical Mineral Imports Surge, Few Nations Dominate
America’s net import reliance for critical minerals in 2025, along with the primary countries supplying them between 2021 and 2024 https://t.co/89QwEHKe16 via @visualcap
Global Investors Turning Bearish, Urging “Sell America”
A theme that @myers_nyc is seeing amongst investors globally? "Sell America." "I've never seen sentiment this bearish toward the United States." https://t.co/iJAlPoLTTE
Global Rotation From US Assets to Rest of World Begins
The 15+ year breakout is sending a very clear message: The global rotation out of US-based assets and into the rest of the world has officially begun, in my view. New macro presentation is out: https://t.co/GY7oyQol42 https://t.co/rypcHQGugR
Druzhba Pipeline Remains Vital Amid Disputed Repairs
The Druzhba pipeline, which supplies 100% of Slovakia's oil & 86% of Hungary's oil, remains FRONT & CENTER. Hungarian PM Orban & Slovak PM Fico have both asserted that the pipeline is functional, while Ukraine asserts that the pipeline has not...
Weekly Chartbook Offers 50+ Slides for Forward Guidance
50+ slide chartbook to go along with our @ForwardGuidance episodes - posted every week. https://t.co/BewBom4N6L
Tariff Refunds Spark Unexpected Market Reaction
I run a family account that is very light on profanity, but I'm making an exception here because this is highly relevant re: policy - i.e., the market response to tariff refunds - and is also kinda funny https://t.co/W4w9escVzV https://t.co/5sIpIX72ON
Data‑driven Debate, Not Magical Thinking, Drives Solutions
A “serious and responsible discussion” would start with the data, name the trade-offs, and propose fixes. Magical thinking isn’t a program; it’s an alibi. https://t.co/wtjQL4ly9p
Hot PPI Fails to Dent Fed Cut Expectations
The hotter-than-expected headline PPI this morning didn't curb Fed rate cut expectations. The implied cuts through 2026 from Fed Fund futures has edged up a bit. $DXY hasn't taken the fundamental bait for a bearish wedge break though: https://t.co/CgVJLLvWs8
Trump Tariffs Drive Canada to Diversify Global Trade Partners
Thanks to Trump’s threats and tariffs, Canada is looking for new partners everywhere. Carney has already visited China, departed for India today, and will head next to Australia and Japan. TRUMP’S TARIFFS = PIVOTING AWAY FROM THE US. https://t.co/UHsis6akCV
AI Job Losses Could Spark Credit and Debt Crisis Soon
The question is NOT "Will AI take all the white-collar jobs or not?" (It won't.) The questions are: 1. "How many white-collar jobs does AI have to take to trigger a consumer credit, & then government receipt & global sovereign...