Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Cross-Asset Vols Spike on Iran Risk as Oil Surges
Cross‑asset implied volatilities surged after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, with oil 1‑month vol jumping 7 points and the skew inverting through the 6‑month curve – a pattern last seen during the 2022 Russia‑Ukraine war. Credit volatility also spiked, as the VIXIG index rose 10 points week‑over‑week, pushing credit vol from the cheapest to a higher‑priced tier. Meanwhile, the VIX index climbed nearly 4 points despite a 1.1% drop in S&P futures, driven by higher SPX fixed‑strike vols and steeper skew. Cboe’s newly launched Magnificent‑10 options saw robust activity, trading roughly 40,000 contracts worth $1.6 billion, mainly in near‑term puts.
India's LNG Tankers Divert Away From Strait of Hormuz
Escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz forced Indian LNG carriers to reroute, leaving only one of Petronet's three captive tankers able to unload at the Dahej terminal. The 138,000 m³ Disha is stalled at Ras Laffan, while Aseem diverted away...
HAL, BDL, Other Defence Stocks in Focus as War in Middle East Escalates; What to Expect?
Indian defence stocks rallied as Middle East tensions rose after Iran's Supreme Leader was killed. HAL and BDL saw modest gains despite year‑to‑date declines of over 11% and 15% respectively. The recent India‑Israel defence pact and Prime Minister Modi’s visit...
Geopolitical Risk and AI Risk Converging
The Capital Flows Research team notes that geopolitical instability and AI safety concerns are increasingly overlapping, creating a compounded risk environment. The analyst introduced a new AI-driven mapping tool and released a suite of TradingView indicators to monitor these dynamics....
Avoid Market Open Trades Without a Clear Plan
Back to Investment Markets in light of Iran-US-Israel War 📈 "If you don't have a clear game plan, you shouldn't be taking any action at the market open... If your game plan is to reduce risk across the board, again open is...
SET Index Falls on Iran-US Conflict
The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) opened down 1.73% to 1,501.78 as investors reacted to the Iran‑US conflict. Energy‑linked shares such as PTTEP and PTT rose, while non‑energy stocks like Gulf Energy, Bumrungrad Hospital and Airports of Thailand fell sharply....
AUD/JPY Trades Above 111.00 After Paring Recent Losses
AUD/JPY rebounded to trade above the 111.00 level during Asian hours, offsetting earlier losses despite heightened safe‑haven demand from the Middle East crisis. The Australian dollar’s recovery was supported by a modest easing in domestic inflation and a dip in...
China to Order up to 120 Airbus Jets
The Chinese government is preparing an incremental order of up to 120 Airbus jets, a move announced by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz during his February 25 state visit to Beijing. The exact aircraft variants, delivery timetable, and contract value have not...
Intermediaries See Shift to Fixed Income Ahead of Rate Cuts, Eye New Markets for Growth: BOS Survey
A Bank of Singapore survey of 90 senior intermediaries across Singapore, Greater China and Dubai shows a clear shift toward fixed‑income products as investors brace for anticipated rate cuts. One‑third of respondents expect rising demand for bonds, while alternative investments...
BoJ’s Himino Says Policy Should Gradually Move Toward Neutral Stance with Moderate Rate Hikes
Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Himino said the central bank’s policy remains somewhat accommodative but should gradually move toward a neutral stance through moderate rate hikes. He noted that the inflation gap is still slightly negative but expected to...
ASIA BLOG: The Fall of the Islamic Republic of Iran Will Boost the Rise of Asian Business Links No End
An Israeli‑U.S. strike that killed Iran’s supreme leader has weakened the Islamic Republic, prompting speculation that its eventual collapse could reshape Asian economic ties. Iran holds the world’s fourth‑largest oil reserves and the second‑largest gas deposits, assets long constrained by...
Iran Conflict Spurs Oil, Markets, Crypto, Uranium Opportunities
Thoughts? The Iran war and oil crisis affect your money across four key areas: oil prices and inflation, stock market volatility, cryptocurrency movements, and overlooked opportunities in uranium and energy security stocks.
Booked Profits, Gold Bullish; SPX Neutral, Gap Fill Anticipated
GOLD & SPX TRADES UPDATE: Booked profits right at the weekly open in anticipation of gap fills on both & middle east tensions holding lesser impact than everyone's fearing. On SPX , i am leaning neutral to slightly bearish , not much...
Australian Airline Qantas' Shares Fall More than 10% on US-Iran Conflict
Qantas Airways’ shares plunged more than 10% to A$8.92, their lowest level in ten months, after the United States and Israel launched large‑scale strikes on Iran, sending oil prices sharply higher. The geopolitical flare‑up forced the closure of key Middle...
Jobs, Sales Data May Confirm Fed Rate Path Amid Tensions
Geopolitical shocks meet key labor and retail data this week. February jobs and January sales could seal the Fed's rate outlook amid Middle East tensions. 🟢 Open https://t.co/NUBk2v4rcI
Middle East Conflict Cuts 18% of Global Air Freight Capacity
18% of global air freight capacity has been taken out of the market by conflict in the Middle East this weekend.
Uzbekistan’s January Foreign Trade Rises 29% to $5.8bn
Uzbekistan’s foreign trade turnover jumped to $5.8 bn in January, a 29.2% year‑on‑year increase. Exports rose 26.7% to $1.69 bn, driven by industrial goods, food, chemicals and services, while imports climbed 30.3% to $4.14 bn, widening the trade deficit to $2.44 bn. China remained...
U.S. Pulls Out of Key Syrian, Iraqi Bases
This comes after several other positions in Syria and Iraq have been vacated by U.S. forces in recent months. Among those are Al Asad air base, which Iran targeted in 2020 after the U.S. killing of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani.
US‑Israeli Iran Strike Threatens President’s MAGA Support
In his latest Greed & Fear FLASH, my good friend Chris Wood wrote: "The US-Israeli attack on Iran... [is] extremely risky politically for the US president, most particularly as his MAGA base is against overseas wars." https://t.co/MyysVy5Ukr
Lufthansa Group and Air India: Closer Ties to Build on EU-India Free Trade Agreement
Lufthansa Group and Air India announced a joint business agreement (JBA), the first airline‑to‑airline JBA since Lufthansa’s 2017 partnership with Singapore Airlines. The deal deepens an existing codeshare and Star Alliance relationship by integrating network planning, joint sales, marketing, schedule...
Japanese Investment in China Jumps 55% Amid Tensions
“At a time when Tokyo and Beijing appear to be drifting further apart politically, Japanese capital is moving in the opposite direction…Japanese foreign direct investment into China surged by 55.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025.” https://t.co/osyTCAOqOp
Brent Crude Jumps 7% Amid War‑Driven Price Surge
On the opening of the Intercontinental Exchange Market in London, BRENT CRUDE SURGED. Since the close on Friday, it's up over 7%, trading at $78 / barrel. THE WINDS OF WAR = HIGHER OIL PRICES = MORE AFFORDABILITY PROBLEMS FOR TRUMP. https://t.co/H6nboenO4u
China’s Oil Buying Spree May Be Running Out of Steam
China’s oil imports reached a record 11.55 million barrels per day in 2025, a 4.4% increase over the prior year, driven by aggressive stockpiling and expanded storage capacity. While the country continues to buy discounted Russian crude and benefits from Saudi...
King Dollar Not Dead; China Still Buying Dollars
Talk of the death of King Dollar is premature. Exhibit #1: China. It runs a large current account surplus, and is accumulating a mountain of predominately dollar-denominated foreign assets at record rates. Those who YAK about DE-DOLLARIZATION should start to FOLLOW THE...
China, Russia Poised to Bolster Iran’s Strait of Hormuz Blockade
Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson on Chinese and Russian support for Iran: “[China and Russia] may send additional naval assets to assist Iran in closing the Strait of Hormuz. They are continuing to supply intelligence … and critical minerals that Iran...
US-Israeli Strikes Against Iran Can Cause Plenty of Collateral Damage to Russia
The United States and Israel’s air campaign against Iran threatens the Russia‑Iran “North‑South” trade corridor, a lifeline that helps Moscow evade Western sanctions and sustain its war in Ukraine. The corridor, recently bolstered by a Russian‑Iran rail modernisation agreement, now...
Japan Set to Amend Article 9, Recognize SDF by 2030
I’m calling it now: Japan will amend Article 9 before 2030 to formally recognize the Self-Defense Forces in the Constitution
Asia's Undervalued Currencies Poised for Explosive Gains
Interesting piece from Bloomberg's Shuli Ren, on the risk that Asia's wildly undervalued currencies might have an explosive appreciation ... 1/3 https://t.co/j9M2wdl5ED
Low Fertility May Persist and Could Be Good for the Economy
A new study argues that persistently low fertility in high‑income countries may be economically beneficial. The authors note that total fertility rates have fallen below replacement and often under 1.3, a level once thought temporary. Cross‑sectional data show a positive...
Iran Conflict Creates Opportunity and Risk for Australian Grain
Escalating conflict between Iran, Israel and the United States has forced the Strait of Hormuz shut, pushing crude oil prices up 8‑10% and reverberating through agricultural markets. Higher energy costs raise nitrogen fertilizer prices and boost biofuel demand, tightening grain...
Middle East Conflict Spikes Oil, Lifts Dollar, Drags Dow
Further to the prior post: A classic initial market reaction to this weekend’s eruption of military conflict in the Middle East: Oil has surged over 10%, the Dollar has strengthened, and Dow futures have opened down some 500 points. #economy #markets #oil...
Asia-Pacific Fintech Funding Hits Decade-Low in 2025 as Investors Stay Cautious: KPMG
Fintech investment in Asia‑Pacific fell to a decade low in 2025, totaling $9.3 billion across 763 transactions, down from $11.7 billion in 2024. Venture capital supplied $7.5 billion of that amount, while mergers and acquisitions contributed $1.7 billion and private equity under $0.1 billion. Funding...
Singapore and Norway Activate EFTA Digital Economy Agreement
The European Free Trade Association‑Singapore Digital Economy Agreement (ESDEA) has entered into force for Singapore and Norway, following its signing in September 2025. The pact establishes binding rules for cross‑border data flows, electronic payments, and paperless trade, while prohibiting data‑localisation...
Australian Renters Endure Needless Suffering
Australian renters have faced a severe affordability squeeze as advertised rents surged 42% over the past five years, outpacing wage growth by nearly three‑to‑one. The median rental home now costs roughly $10,600 more per year than it did in early...
THE GREEK TOURISM SECTOR CONTINUED TO PERFORM STRONGLY IN 2025
Greece’s tourism sector posted strong growth in 2025, with total travel earnings climbing to €23.63 billion, a 9.4% rise over the prior year. Visitor arrivals reached 37.95 million, up 5.6%, and average spend per traveler increased 3.8%, boosting overall revenue. The United...
Plumbing Notes: Nothing Ever Happens
Money‑market volatility has markedly subsided, pushing overnight repo rates to near‑record lows and stabilising the SOFR‑FF basis. Higher inter‑bank volumes are keeping the basis narrow while swap spreads have widened, signalling easier funding conditions. The Federal Reserve’s aggressive volatility suppression...
The Risk of Unknown Unknowns for Global Markets Amid War in Iran
The recent escalation between the United States, Israel and Iran highlights the market challenge of "unknown unknowns"—risks that defy traditional modeling. While investors have tools to hedge known shocks, the lack of definable parameters forces regulators to prioritize liquidity and...
Crisis Mode Returns: US‑Israel Strikes Ignite Market Volatility
Markets are back in crisis mode with the US–Israel strikes on Iran dominating headlines: global risk assets are reacting, oil prices are spiking, and S&P volatility is alive. Join us LIVE at 6pm EST as we break down how ES futures...
Fiat Currencies Fail; Bitcoin Offers a True Standard
100 Egyptian pounds equals 2 dollars. You try to spend money and have to deal with conversion rates All countries’ currency is just paper backed by nothing Dollars are printed and you are taxed to fund wars you don’t support The whole...
Middle Eastern Oil Giants Accelerate Multibillion-Dollar Clean Energy Push
Middle Eastern oil powerhouses, led by the UAE and Saudi Arabia, are accelerating multibillion‑dollar clean‑energy programs that span solar, wind, nuclear, and green‑hydrogen. The region’s renewable capacity is set to surge, with solar projected to grow ten‑fold and nuclear output...
Korea Leads 2025 Surge in US Equity Inflows
If there is a real risk off move (& it is still an if) the structure of the inflows that have covered the US current account deficit will matter. Foreign buying of US equity surged in 2025, and no where more...
Oil Prices Set to Drop, Fueling Roaring 2020s
YARDENI: “.. in our short-war scenario, oil prices should fall in the coming weeks after a ceasefire .. boosting US consumer spending and benefiting global economies .. The weekend’s Middle East developments make us even more confident in our Roaring...
India Set to Revive 1984 Water Project After Revoking Pact with Pakistan
India is set to restart the 1984 Jhelum River water‑management project in Kashmir, marking the first unilateral water‑flow decision since it suspended the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan nine months ago. The revival follows a brief armed clash between the...
Geopolitical Tensions Push USD, Gold, and Oil Higher
The old geopolitical playbook (USD up, gold up, oil up, bond yields down, stocks down) is on for now.
Foreign Investors Pour $1.55 Trillion Into USD, Defying “Sell America” Myths
Foreign investors poured a net $1.55 TRILLION into USD assets last year, up 31.4% from 2024. The oft repeated “Sell America” and “End of King Dollar” narratives don’t align with the facts. Hanke's 95% Rule: 95% of what you read in the...
KMTC Tied to Six HD Hyundai Boxships
Korea Marine Transport Co (KMTC) has placed a KRW 372.4 bn ($258 m) order for six 1,800‑TEU feeder containerships with HD Hyundai shipyards. The vessels are scheduled for delivery between August 2027 and June 2028, adding to KMTC’s fleet of more than 60 ships that...
The Data Sovereignty Fault Line Dividing Washington and Its Allies
The United States, via Secretary of State Marco Rubio, is urging diplomats to counter foreign data‑sovereignty measures, calling EU regulations overly burdensome and a threat to innovation. At the same time, France announced it will replace Microsoft Teams and Zoom with...
Latam Liftoff Peels Second-Tier Layers
Latin America’s MSCI index surged 20% in the first two months of the year, lifting the region’s weight in the global benchmark from 5% to roughly 15%, a level not seen since the early 2000s. The original “Big 3” markets—Argentina, Brazil...
Stocks Tumble, Dollar and Oil Rise on Iran Crisis: Markets Wrap
Global equities fell sharply on March 1 as the Iran crisis escalated, with Asian shares dropping 1.6% and U.S. and European futures slipping over 1% and 1.7% respectively. The heightened geopolitical risk pushed investors toward safe‑haven assets, lifting the U.S....
Travel Industry Faces Economic Strain, Overtourism, and Infrastructure Challenges
The travel and tourism sector is confronting a perfect storm of economic uncertainty, rising tax burdens, and mounting infrastructure strain. Consumer confidence dips have already curbed discretionary travel spending, while layered fees on flights, hotels and rentals add friction for...