Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Gilt Yields Rise as Hopes for Bank of England Rate Cut Fade
UK inflation fell to a ten‑month low in January, reviving hopes of a Bank of England rate cut in March. However, gilt yields surged, with five‑year yields up 19 basis points, ten‑year up 14 basis points and two‑year up 12 basis points, erasing recent borrowing‑cost relief. Mortgage specialist Nicholas Mendes warned that the near‑term cut is now less probable as supply‑chain shocks keep inflationary pressure alive. He highlighted that lingering energy‑supply disruptions could add 0.3‑0.4% to UK inflation, complicating the BoE’s policy path.
PMI Rebound Offers Limited Boost for Crypto Speculation
ISM vs Bitcoin relationship is more correlation than causation. The difference today compared to past cycles is credit spreads were wide to start the PMI rebound, due to prior growth scares that led to risk off environments. Since 2022, spreads...
Oil Shock Math Reveals Dwindling Exporter Surplus, Reshaping Trade
Some basic oil shock math, focusing on the impact on global trade ... Remember that we are starting from an unusually low surplus in the fuel exporting economies ... 1/ https://t.co/WIeQBspqCY
Reactions to the US-Israel Attack on Iran; Prepping for the Two Sessions; Science and Technology Insurance
The United States and Israel launched a strike against Iran, dominating global headlines as China prepares for its annual Two Sessions. Beijing’s response has been limited to diplomatic condemnations, mirroring its usual stance in such crises. Iranian crude accounts for...
Iran Regime Fall 48% Likely, History Shows Failure
According to @Polymarket, there is a 48% chance that the Iranian regime will fall before 2027. Trump is engaged in a risky operation. THE HISTORY OF REGIME CHANGES = FAILURE. https://t.co/xdpgxVS4Gd
Price Wars Hurt Productivity, Threaten Chinese Economy
.@Aligarciaherrer: “They cut prices aggressively, not because they’re getting leaner…but because everyone else is doing it and they fear losing customers…Unproductive companies are hurting the productive ones, which is…not good for the Chinese economy.” https://t.co/ZakESJy4Fc
Missiles Made in Ukraine Are Bringing Putin’s Invasion Home to Russia
Ukraine’s domestically produced FP‑5 Flamingo cruise missile achieved a landmark strike in February, hitting the Votkinsk missile‑production complex deep inside Russia. The missile, developed by startup Fire Point, boasts a claimed 3,000‑kilometre range and a payload of over one tonne,...
Tariffs Drive U.S. Equipment Production Overseas, Cutting Jobs
"Tariffs Force Down Heavy Equipment Sales and Jobs" https://t.co/gAxfFeOvbe "it is more economical to build a forklift overseas, import it and pay the tariff" "multiple layers of tariffs on inputs have made it even more expensive to build machinery on American soil"...
Gundlach Urges Investors to Shift From Dollar to Foreign Assets
Jeff Gundlach: “My recommendation is that US Dollar based investors should be investing in foreign markets in foreign currencies. Because the US Dollar appears to be in a long-term bear market” https://t.co/b2PwOxuvyI
Stanley Druckenmiller: Massive Disruption Ahead
In a recent Morgan Stanley interview, legendary macro investor Stanley Druckenmiller explained that contrarianism is often overrated and that true returns come from anticipating shifts in perception. He highlighted his successful bets on Teva Pharmaceuticals, which doubled after the market...
US-Iran Conflict to Cut Brazil Diesel Spot Deals
The US‑Iran conflict has driven NYMEX heating‑oil futures up more than 12%, causing diesel premiums at Brazilian ports to more than double within a day. Spot‑market diesel deals are expected to grind to a halt as import costs surge and...
Mining Underpins National Profit Growth, ABS Reveals
The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that gross operating profits across private‑sector firms rose 5.8% in the December quarter, driven largely by an 8.1% surge in mining profits. Mining sales grew 1.2% and inventories increased 0.7%, while wages in the...
Oil Holds Gain as Traders Brace for Fresh Attacks in Middle East
Oil prices continued to rise as the United States and Israel escalated military actions against Iran, prompting Tehran to threaten to close the Strait of Hormuz and launch drone attacks on the U.S. embassy in Riyadh. Brent crude climbed above...
Surging Oil Prices Could Derail Pakistan’s Fragile Economic Recovery
Oil prices jumped nearly 10 % after Iran’s retaliatory strikes, prompting JPMorgan to warn that Brent could reach $120 per barrel if Strait of Hormuz disruptions persist. Pakistan, which imports 85 % of its crude, faces a current‑account deficit increase of $1.5‑$2 billion...
Stocks Tumble, Oil’s Gain Fans Inflation Concerns: Markets Wrap
Global equities fell on March 2 as escalating Middle East tensions pushed oil prices higher, reviving inflation concerns. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped up to 2%, with South Korea’s Kospi sliding more than 4% after a long‑weekend session. U.S. S&P 500...
RSPG: A Clean Way To Take Advantage Of The Iran Conflict
RSPG, the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Energy ETF, offers investors exposure to 22 U.S. energy companies positioned to benefit from rising oil prices amid the Iran conflict. Its equal‑weight methodology normalizes valuation outliers and reduces concentration risk, eliminating the...
US PX May Tighten on Mideast Gulf Fighting
US‑Israeli attacks on Iran have halted vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening paraxylene (PX) shipments from Saudi Arabia's Jubail port to the US Gulf Coast. While 56% of US PX imports come from Saudi Arabia, roughly half load...
Brazil’s Oil Production Keeps Growing
Brazil is accelerating toward becoming the world’s fourth‑largest oil producer, buoyed by its 2025 entry into OPEC+ and a massive offshore pre‑salt development program. The pre‑salt basins, which contain 81% of the nation’s proven reserves, are driving a 14.6% jump...
Iran Conflict Drives Oil and LNG Prices Higher
Oil, LNG Prices Spike as Iran Conflict Continues Ron Bousso, senior columnist for Thomson Reuters, discusses oil, LNG markets and the likelihood that Middle Eastern tensions will keep prices high. #IranWar #IranIsraelWar https://youtu.be/TyuJU-0pvIo
Missouri Farmer Says Growing Global Competition Makes Boosting Demand for U.S. Corn More Critical than Ever
Missouri farmer Brian Willott warns that Brazil’s expanding double‑cropping of corn and soy is intensifying global competition for U.S. grain. He argues that U.S. corn’s quality edge must be leveraged to secure premium prices and new export markets. Willott also...
Nola DAP Re-Export Demand Drives Prices Higher
Re‑export demand for diammonium phosphate (DAP) at New Orleans lifted prices to $650 per short tonne, a 4% rise from the previous week. About 30,000 st were sold for re‑export, mainly to a Latin‑American distributor, while 170,000 t of DAP arrived at Nola...
LNG Shutdowns and Refinery Halts Complicate Global Energy Outlook
Middle‑East hostilities have forced Qatar to shut its flagship LNG export plant and Saudi Arabia to pause operations at its largest oil refinery, while tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly stopped. The disruptions arrive amid a global...
Reflections on the Latest Middle Eastern War and How the Dollar Might Be Impacted
The early stages of the Iran‑U.S./Israel war have pushed investors toward the dollar as a safe‑haven asset. While the dollar is currently strengthening, the article warns that a protracted conflict could unleash currency‑market turbulence reminiscent of the 1970s transition to...
Prompt Ammonia Prices Jump at Inland US Locations
Spot ammonia prices in the US Corn Belt surged on March 2, with CF Industries raising offers to $760‑$850 per short ton at inland locations. The jump reflects strong pre‑plant fertilizer demand and a tightening nitrogen market influenced by the Middle...
Geopolitical Shock From Operation Epic Fury Tests Muni Market Resilience
Operation Epic Fury, the U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran, is driving heightened volatility across global markets. Oil and natural‑gas prices have surged, prompting a risk‑off shift in equities and signaling inflation concerns in bond yields. Municipal bond investors face uncertain supply‑demand...
CFOs Are Feeling the Tariff Whiplash
CFOs are grappling with sudden tariff volatility after the Supreme Court struck down Trump‑imposed duties, only for the administration to reimpose a 10% flat tariff that quickly rose to 15%. The back‑and‑forth has left manufacturers uncertain about sourcing, lead times,...
TPM26: Iran Conflict Puts New Risk on US Economic Growth: Yellen
Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that the Iran‑Israel conflict threatens to choke oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, sending crude futures to their highest level in over a year. Higher energy prices could lift inflation and undermine the...
Fed More Likely to Stay Pat?
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady, prompting the dollar index to climb and Treasury 10‑year yields to rise about nine basis points. Higher yields reflect tighter monetary expectations, while the 10‑year TIPS also edged up six...
Hegseth Says Iran Campaign ‘Not Like Iraq or Afghanistan’
The United States and Israel launched a massive air campaign against Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, sinking warships and striking more than 1,000 targets. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth framed the operation as a focused effort to destroy Iran’s...
Hormuz Shutdown Spikes Sulphur, Hikes African Copper Leaching Costs
The cost of leaching copper oxide ore in the Central African Copperbelt is about to get even more expensive. In the past few days a number of Middle Eastern Oil refineries have been attacked / closed. In addition, exports through...
Crypto Bets Risky Amid Fragile Equity Market Outlook
“It’s very obvious that there’s a lot of fragility in the market… and it’s very hard to bet on crypto if you think that the equity market might take a real bath here.” https://t.co/oUCYvsFWWo
Iran Risk Brief: Maintaining Defensive Posture, Vigilance for Disparate Outcomes, Opportunities
The U.S.–Israel air strikes on Iran on Feb. 28 have heightened geopolitical risk, creating a fluid credit environment that could swing from rapid de‑escalation to a protracted regional war. DoubleLine’s Global Sovereign Debt team entered the episode with a defensive posture,...
Strait of Hormuz: Politics Clash, Captains Hold the Final Say
Iran says the Strait is closed. The U.S. military says it’s open. Reality: you still have to convince a captain to sail it. Ten years ago, shore-side managers could (and did) twist arms. Today? Nobody wants to become TikTok famous for twisting arms...
Wall Street Rebounds as Oil and Gold Retreat
Is the market already done with the US-Iran war? Wall Street erased early losses while gold and crude oil recoiled from panic highs. Now what? #OilPrices #Crude #Iran #IranWar #stockmarkets #Dollar #Macro https://t.co/sUv93zfPtT
TGS Live: Larry Kotlikoff on Debt, Tariffs, and the Public Role of Economists
In this live episode, Glenn Lawry talks with distinguished economist Lawrence Kotlikoff about the public role of economists, the need for them to move from descriptive to prescriptive work, and how economic tools can help both households and policymakers. Kotlikoff...
Kharg Island Identified as Critical Oil Export Choke Point
Kharg Island is a 'choke point' for Iran's oil exports, says VanEck Funds CEO https://t.co/rI4JYhLG71
Oil Market Stays Calm Amid War Rhetoric
"Oil market not too worried" @Bear__85 "You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you" --Leon Trotsky https://t.co/G26AVdQkOv
Tariffs Turned UK Manufacturers Away From the US Market in 2025
British manufacturers have sharply reduced their focus on the United States in 2025 due to President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariff regime, according to the UK Trade Barometer survey of 2,000 firms. Export activity migrated to Asia and Europe, with China,...
Red Sea Crisis Hits 834 Days, Hormuz Just Three
“Today is day 834 of the Red Sea crisis and day 3 of the Hormuz crisis,” shipping analyst Lars Jensen
Europe’s Gas Prices Surge 50% Amid Hormuz Tensions
European gas just posted its biggest one-day jump since the Ukraine invasion. Up ~50% as Hormuz security stalls LNG shipping. Energy shocks don’t disappear — they compound. Just when inflation felt contained, volatility returns. Cost-of-living isn’t gone. It was dormant. #NaturalGas #TTF #Hormuz #EnergyCrisis...
Uzbekistan’s Afghanistan Push Accelerates
Uzbekistan has accelerated economic integration with Afghanistan, with 2025 bilateral trade reaching $1.5‑$1.68 billion—a 53% jump from the prior year and 2.5‑fold growth since 2021. Deputy Prime Minister Jamshid Khodjaev aims to lift trade to $5 billion, backed by a forthcoming Kabul...
Support Montana's Palladium Mine for Economy and Security
US Senator Steve Daines on Montana palladium mine, in the wake of US tariffs on Russian supplies of the metal used to make semiconductors and other materials:
Oil Market Stays Calm Despite Ras Tanura Strike
Despite the strike on Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery, Aramco’s Ras Tanura facility, the oil market remained relatively calm throughout the day. Stay tuned. https://t.co/HzbD8gLZNn
CEE FX: Forint and Lira Seen Under Pressure – ING
ING analyst Frantisek Taborsky warns that Central and Eastern European (CEE) currencies, especially the Hungarian forint and Turkish lira, will feel downward pressure as an Iran‑related energy shock pushes oil and gas prices higher and strengthens the US dollar. The...
Iran Commander Declares Hormuz Closed, Threatens Passing Vessels
Iran commander says Strait of Hormuz closed, vows to hit ships trying to pass, report says: CNBC $USO $XLE
France Revives Nuclear Buildup, Sparking Arms Race Fears
For the first time since 1992, France will expand its nuclear weapons arsenal. Why expand? France already has the world’s fourth-largest nuclear arsenal, following Russia, the US and China. THE LAST THING WE NEED IS ANOTHER ARMS RACE. https://t.co/khuyfhNe9A
PSEi Falls 2.79% as Middle East Tensions Spark Sell-Off
Philippine stocks tumbled on Monday as the PSEi slipped 2.79% to 6,426.83 points, driven by heightened US‑Iran tensions and fears of rising oil prices. The sell‑off was broad‑based, with the services sector falling 4.11% and foreign investors exiting with net...
War Undermines Plans, Makes Predictions Fragile
Profound. No plan is unchanged by war, and all predictions are rendered wafer thin. Bowen’s priceless insight.. https://t.co/h4FDPyZ6Y4
Crossroads, Interrupted
A sudden conflict with Iran has forced the closure of Persian Gulf air traffic, curtailing more than 90% of flights for Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad. The three Gulf carriers—often called the ME3—operate the world’s busiest transit hub, moving 182 million...
IEEPA Refund Delays Cost Taxpayers $700 Million Monthly
Friday, the Trump administration began stalling IEEPA tariff refunds in court. In a new @CatoInstitute blog post, we review US regs on customs duty refunds & find that IEEPA delays will cost taxpayers ~$700M/month (~$23M/day) in additional interest payments owed...