Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Italy February Preliminary CPI +1.6% vs +1.1% Y/Y Expected
Italy's February preliminary HICP rose 1.6% year‑on‑year, beating the 1.1% consensus. Core inflation accelerated to 2.4% from 1.7% in January, with services inflation jumping to 3.6%. The hotter reading aligns with broader Eurozone CPI data, intensifying price‑pressure concerns. Analysts suggest the data could shift the ECB’s stance from rate cuts toward possible hikes.
India Starts Countervailing Duty Probe Against Chinese PVC Resins
India’s Directorate General of Trade Remedies has opened a counter‑vailing duty investigation into imports of Chinese PVC resins after domestic producers filed complaints. The petitioners, including Chemplast Cuddalore Vinyls, DCM Shriram and DCW Ltd, claim Chinese manufacturers receive government subsidies that enable...
Risk Off as Market Ponders New Energy Crisis From Iran Conflict.
The episode analyzes how the escalating Iran‑Israel conflict is triggering a fresh energy crisis, especially in Europe, where gas spot prices have surged 70% and oil is trading above $80 per barrel. Hosts discuss market reactions: a brief rally in...
February Brings Another Sharp Inflation Rise in Turkey
Turkey's annual inflation rose to 31.5% in February, driven primarily by a 2.96% month‑on‑month CPI increase. Food prices surged, with annual food inflation at 36.5%, while core inflation eased to 29.5%, its lowest since late 2021. Producer‑price inflation remained around...
Oil and Beyond Oil: What Might Be the Economic Implications of Iran’s War on Asia?
The United States and Israel have launched a military strike on Iran, prompting analysts to model two outcomes: a swift conflict that keeps oil prices near a baseline of $80 per barrel, and a drawn‑out war that could push prices...
How Music Retailers Can Deal With Tariffs and Save Their Customers
Independent music retailers are grappling with a new 15% tariff imposed for 150 days after the Supreme Court struck earlier duties, while consumer confidence stays weak and industry consolidation accelerates. Vendors have raised prices and tightened MAP policies, squeezing margins...
Vietnamese Exporters Face Rising Costs, Delays as Middle East Tensions Disrupt Red Sea
Vietnamese exporters are confronting higher logistics, insurance and raw‑material costs as Middle‑East tensions disrupt Red Sea shipping lanes. Companies such as Dony Garment and Cat Van Loi report potential 15‑20‑day delays that could jeopardise peak‑season deliveries and project timelines. Panic‑buying...
France’s Economy Stands Strong, ECB Should Stay Hands‑Off
France has low exposure to Middle East shock, low inflation and resilient growth. ECB should not react to energy swings. Risk: energy volatility. Trade: overweight French banks. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Piero Cipollone: The Digital Euro - Enhancing Payments in the Euro Area
In a February 2026 speech to Italy’s Parliamentary Committee, ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone outlined the digital euro initiative, stressing its role in modernising payments and reinforcing trust through democratic legitimacy. He framed the project as a strategic response...
ECB's Villeroy: It Would Be a Mistake to Predict Rate Move in a Hurry
ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy warned that forecasting a rate move too quickly would be a mistake, emphasizing that policy decisions will not hinge solely on volatile energy prices. He noted that France’s exposure to Middle‑East tensions remains limited,...
Iranian Drone Attack Halts LNG, Sparks Dual Energy Shock
🚨 IRAN WAR DAY 4 — A DIFFERENT SHOCK 🚨 Day 4 changes the calculus. This isn't just an oil story anymore. QatarEnergy — the world's largest LNG supplier, covering 20% of global supply — halted all production after Iranian drones...
China May Need US Cooperation on Iran Energy
Here is a picture of @TheMichaelEvery being interview by a large Dutch man in Cape Town and in the process being hit by the epiphany that the geopolitical irony of the Iran situation is that China might be put in...
Some EU Governments Are Trying to Escape Gmail, Zoom, AirBnB, Microsoft, Visa and Amazon – It’s Not Easy
After the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Trump administration barred eleven ICC judges and prosecutors from using U.S.-based payment cards, email services and e‑commerce platforms. The sanctions effectively cut off access...
Implications of Prolonged Unrest in Iran for Pakistan
The United States and Israel launched coordinated attacks on Iran after the February 27 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei, prompting Tehran to close the Strait of Hormuz and target regional airports. Iran’s resilient regime is now focused on defending its...
Trump Says 'Sad to See' US-UK Relationship Is Not What It Was
U.S. President Donald Trump told The Sun that the U.S.-U.K. partnership has deteriorated after Prime Minister Keir Starmer delayed permitting American forces to use British bases for defensive strikes against Iran. Trump contrasted Britain’s stance with France’s support, calling the...
Global Travel Leaders Formalise Cross-Sector Coordination Through the Global Resilience Network
Senior leaders from travel, finance, technology and government have launched the Global Resilience Network (GRN), a cross‑sector coordination platform active across Europe, Asia, the Middle East and the Americas. GRN moves beyond traditional forums by providing an invitation‑only infrastructure that...
Japan's Jobless Rate Rises to 2.7% as Workers Seek Better Positions
Japan’s unemployment rate ticked up to 2.7% in January, ending a five‑month decline. The labor ministry reported a 0.4% dip in total employment and a 3.2% rise in the unemployed, driven largely by a 7.9% jump in voluntary quits. Job...
France Says It Will Work with China on De-Esclatating Iran War
French Foreign Minister Jean‑Noël Barrot and Chinese counterpart Wang Yi held a call to coordinate de‑escalation of the escalating Iran conflict. Both ministers pledged to pursue a political solution that safeguards collective security while acknowledging Iranian aspirations. Barrot accused Tehran...
Qatar’s LNG Crisis: The Massive Geopolitical Risk Premium—And How You Can Profit From It
Qatar, the world’s largest LNG exporter, faces a supply crunch as regional geopolitical tensions and export‑capacity constraints tighten the market. The disruption has injected a hefty risk premium into spot and forward LNG prices, pushing contracts up 15‑20% year‑over‑year. Buyers...
Market Makers Now Serve as ETF Authorized Participants
Back in the day, Goldman Sachs was the premier Wall Street bad guy. The investment bank attracted endless scrutiny of the supposedly conflicting and asymmetric arrangements that powered its broker dealer operations. Key among these were its primary dealer arrangements....
BOJ Might Have to Put Off March Rate Hike Amid US-Iran Conflict - Report
The Bank of Japan is likely to postpone its March interest‑rate hike as market volatility from the US‑Iran conflict intensifies. Yen depreciation remains the only clear trigger for a hike, but geopolitical risk and rising oil prices are prompting caution....
Union Maritime Bulks up with First Newcastlemax Newbuilds
Union Maritime, a UK‑based tanker operator, is linked to its first Newcastlemax bulk carrier order, potentially securing up to four 215,000‑dwt vessels from China’s Wuhu Shipyard. The deal includes two firm ships and two options at roughly $76 million each, with...
Israel-Iran War to Discourage Investment Into India, Offset Trade Deal Positives: BMI
BMI warns that the Israel‑Iran conflict will increase policy uncertainty and deter foreign investment in India. The firm keeps its FY2026/27 GDP growth forecast at 7 % but flags geopolitical risks that could offset gains from new US and EU trade...
It’s Not Just About Freedom. Here Is the Real Reason They Hit Iran...
The blog argues that the U.S. strike on Iran is driven as much by oil and the desire to protect the petrodollar as by promoting freedom. It highlights how BRICS nations have been building alternative oil‑trade mechanisms using non‑dollar currencies...
Performance Shipping Orders Suezmax Pair in China
Performance Shipping, the Nasdaq‑listed Greek tanker owner, has signed contracts for two 158,000 dwt suezmax vessels with Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding. Each newbuild costs $81.5 million and is scheduled for delivery in October 2028 and May 2029. The ships will be Tier III, scrubber‑fitted and meet...
Taiwan Doesn’t Have to Choose
Taiwan, home to 23 million people, sits at the nexus of global trade routes and the semiconductor supply chain, making its stability a linchpin for worldwide commerce. The Kuomintang (KMT) argues that the island should not be forced to align exclusively...
AI-Driven Market Dispersion Hits Multi-Decade Highs
From The Wall Street Journal: “Market ‘dispersion’ is hitting levels not seen in decades as investors sort AI winners from losers.” (Recall that Dispersion — both within and across sectors and economies — is one of the three key themes I’ve...
DC's Limited Tricks Can't Stop High Oil Prices
DC won’t let high oil prices hurt Americans Good luck As @rory_johnston frames it, here are the options • SPR release (here we go again) • Sanctions relief on Russia (err... not great) • Gas tax holiday (2022 redux) You can’t print barrels https://t.co/3KCAj8NtGr #Oil #EnergyMarkets...
VLCC Rates Hit New Sky-High Record: $424,000 Per Day
VLCC charter rates surged to a record $424,000 per day after the U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran, as the Strait of Hormuz was officially closed to traffic. Spot rates for Middle‑East‑to‑China voyages jumped well above $400,000, dwarfing the recent $100,000‑plus benchmarks....
Ships Still Transit Strait of Hormuz Despite Closure
Strait of Hormuz Traffic March 2, 2026 The past 24 hour ship passages through the Strait of #Hormuz after #Iran declared its closed.
Geopolitical Tensions Push SPX Futures Down, Near Key Range
Good morning, Mostly Deep Red Arrows around the World as Geopolitical tensions spread thru 9 Countries. $spx futures -120 Looks like we will be right around big important range area. $spy $675ish https://t.co/S9yXkXPEy9
What Is the Difference Between Rare Metals vs Rare Earth Elements?
The article clarifies that “rare metals” and “rare earth elements” are distinct concepts. Rare metals are an industrial label for low‑volume, supply‑concentrated metals often produced as by‑products, while rare earths are a scientifically defined group of 17 elements. Key examples...
ECB Won’t Base Rates Solely on Energy Prices, Villeroy Says
Villeroy says the ECB won’t set rates based solely on energy prices https://t.co/G8My89Yxzs via @SamyAdghirni https://t.co/rTdDrkhLLF
Europe Faces Looming Energy Crisis: Key Takeaways
What does the potentially emerging energy crisis mean for Europe? Yesterday I was in a media briefing with 75 journalists. Here is a snippet of what I told them. https://t.co/3dT441Yllq
US, China Discuss Investment Revival Ahead of Trump’s Trip: Sources
U.S. and Chinese officials have begun talks to revive reciprocal investment ahead of President Donald Trump's scheduled visit to Beijing. Both sides are exploring structured joint ventures and licensing arrangements, with Beijing demanding stronger protection for its firms and Washington...
2022 Traders Rediscovered JKM‑Equity Link Amid Gas Surge
Everyone that traded during 2022 just collectively remembered the relationship between JKM and Japanese/Korean Equities that we all forgot when natural gas prices were calm.
China's Oil Stockpiles Offer Buffer Against Price Spikes
“Can China act as a buffer? China has been loading up on cheap, sanctioned oil, putting some of it away in storage. In a report, analysts at Morgan Stanley said China could slow down on its purchases if oil prices...
Gold Soars Again Following Latest War, While Silver Pulls Back
Gold futures surged roughly $100 on Monday, briefly topping $5,400 as investors fled to the traditional safe‑haven amid a new Middle East conflict. In contrast, silver futures slipped $3.62, ending near $89.80 after a volatile swing between $86.73 and $97.30....
LNG Supply Shocks Expose Energy Transition’s Fatal Flaw
Qatar LNG offline — unprecedented. U.S. exporters win, importers lose, says @seb_kennedy Ukraine & Iran wars expose a core flaw in the “energy transition” narrative. All energy depends on supply chains — break them, you break energy. No supply chains, no energy. Plan B? #LNG...
Iran Denies Ras Tanura Attack, Blames Israel
Ras Tanura was attacked by Iran based on all reliable reporting @RyanRozbiani A Tasnim denial is just that, not independent confirmation. #Iran #RasTanura #OilSecurity #MiddleEast #FactCheck #Geopolitics @VandanaHari_SG
Iran Strike Sparks Cross-Asset Volatility, Market Outlook Discussed
I'll be on with @MariaBartiromo tomorrow am- 7:10 EST on @FoxBusiness discussing the surge in cross-asset volatility given the Iran Strike & what it means for markets
Yuan Gains Return Real Exchange Rate to 2024 Levels
The yuan's appreciation against the dollar over the last few months looks to have pulled China's real exchange rate back to its end 2024 levels (February is my estimate based on the CFETS index) 1/ https://t.co/KtxZcE3nT7
Hormuz Traffic Plummets, 150 Tankers Stranded, Oil Halted
Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is running 70% below normal. Roughly 150 tankers are stranded in the Strait. If that’s not bad enough, the IRGC adviser, Sardar Jabari, stated, “Not a single drop of oil will leave the region.” https://t.co/A4WO3ah53J
Low Tariffs Make New Trade Deals Marginal; Boost Domestic Demand
I very much agree with this. For most products and for most countries (the US is now an exception, China has been a bit of an exception) tariffs are already generally low, so the incremental impact of a classic free trade...
Dimon Warns Inflation May Spark Economic Downturn
“Right now, the economy is doing fine, asset prices are high…I think the probabilities of something going south are more than other people think..I think inflation will cause the economic downturn:” JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon https://t.co/xB4HN6ITSk
Trump Refuses Refunds After Supreme Court Deems Tariffs Unlawful
After Trump’s tariffs were ruled unlawful by the US Supreme Court, he is now dragging his feet and refusing to refund Americans who were illegally TAXED by tariffs. https://t.co/vlXQUbwjEo
Oil Shock Math Reveals Dwindling Exporter Surplus, Reshaping Trade
Some basic oil shock math, focusing on the impact on global trade ... Remember that we are starting from an unusually low surplus in the fuel exporting economies ... 1/ https://t.co/WIeQBspqCY
Iran Regime Fall 48% Likely, History Shows Failure
According to @Polymarket, there is a 48% chance that the Iranian regime will fall before 2027. Trump is engaged in a risky operation. THE HISTORY OF REGIME CHANGES = FAILURE. https://t.co/xdpgxVS4Gd
Price Wars Hurt Productivity, Threaten Chinese Economy
.@Aligarciaherrer: “They cut prices aggressively, not because they’re getting leaner…but because everyone else is doing it and they fear losing customers…Unproductive companies are hurting the productive ones, which is…not good for the Chinese economy.” https://t.co/ZakESJy4Fc
Tariffs Drive U.S. Equipment Production Overseas, Cutting Jobs
"Tariffs Force Down Heavy Equipment Sales and Jobs" https://t.co/gAxfFeOvbe "it is more economical to build a forklift overseas, import it and pay the tariff" "multiple layers of tariffs on inputs have made it even more expensive to build machinery on American soil"...