Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
France to Help Secure Shipping Lanes
French President Emmanuel Macron announced a new coalition to secure vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea amid the US‑Iran war. The initiative will mobilize military assets, including repositioning the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle to the Mediterranean. The United States will complement the effort with naval convoys and political‑risk insurance for ships. Traffic through the Hormuz Strait has already fallen 94% since the conflict began.
White House Offers Shifting Rationales for War with Iran
The Middle East conflict entered its fourth day as the Trump administration launched a military strike against Iran. White House officials have offered a series of shifting rationales—ranging from regime change to preemptive action and nuclear disarmament—despite intelligence assessments indicating...
VC Index Drop Signals Broad Interest Rate Decline
The Venture Capital Index is now down more than 30% from its peak. This reinforces the idea that the entire interest rate curve may be headed materially lower, in my view. Yes — both short and long end of the curve. Also, separately: Just...
Fed Warns Iran Conflict Could Spark Lasting Inflation Shock
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said his outlook, up until a few days ago, supported maintaining a general easing bias. Inflation has been on a trajectory of "gently heading down" while there's no evidence the labor market is tightening. But...
TPM26: Flexport CEO Sees AI’s Impact on Logistics Accelerating
Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen announced that artificial‑intelligence tools can trim roughly 10% off the back‑office component of ocean freight costs, enabling logistics firms to scale without proportionate hiring. He revealed that Flexport entered a "code red" mode in November 2025,...
Mideast War to Tighten LatAm Polymer Supply: Update
US‑Iran hostilities have disrupted Middle‑East sea lanes, prompting carriers to suspend loadings, impose a $3,000 emergency surcharge and reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope. The resulting capacity crunch is tightening polyethylene and polypropylene shipments to Brazil and the...
What Does Indonesia Get Out of the US-Indonesia Agreement on Reciprocal Trade?
In February 2026 President Donald Trump and President Prabowo Subianto signed a U.S.-Indonesia Agreement on Reciprocal Trade that obliges Jakarta to facilitate $10 billion of U.S. investment and import roughly $33 billion of American goods, mainly energy and agriculture. The deal was...
TPM26: Global Trade ‘Still Strong’ Despite Uncertainties: Hellmann CEO
Hellmann Worldwide Logistics CEO Jens Drewes told the TPM26 conference that global ocean freight volumes remain robust despite heightened geopolitical risks, including ongoing trade tensions and the expanding Middle East conflict. He highlighted continued strength in worldwide trade and pointed...
ExxonMobil Optimizing Assets to Offset Disruptions
ExxonMobil said its worldwide scale and diversified portfolio allow it to mitigate disruptions from the latest Middle East conflict. Senior vice president Jack Williams highlighted the company’s ability to shift feedstock and products using its trading arm and long‑term charter fleet....
CN Index Climbs as Middle East Tensions Reinforce Shipping Risk
The Container News (CN) Index climbed to 543 this week, keeping global container shipping in the High Pressure zone. Freight rates across major East‑West lanes showed mixed movement, with softness on Asia‑USEC and Asia‑USWC but strength on Far East‑North Europe...
Unlocking Global Growth: A Practical Road Map for Cross-Border E-Commerce Success
Retailers are turning to cross‑border e‑commerce as domestic markets saturate, with global online sales forecast to hit $6.8 trillion by 2028. A Total Retail whitepaper, created with Melissa Data, highlights that address errors affect nearly one‑fifth of orders, driving costly failures....
In Brief: Increasing Tensions Between China and Japan Create Risks for the Region
Tensions between China and Japan have escalated after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s November statement linking Japan’s response to a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan. Japan’s recent electoral win has enabled a surge in defense spending, while China signals willingness...
US Gulf MR Freight Trades Just Under All-Time Highs
Freight rates for medium‑range tankers loading on the US Gulf coast surged as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz nearly stopped, prompting buyers to scramble for alternative diesel supplies. Chevron’s Europe‑bound voyage hit Worldscale 365 ($72.39 per tonne), while ATMI’s Caribbean...
Air Freight Backlog Set to Gridlock Asia Airports Amid Middle East Conflict: K+N CEO
Air cargo originating in Asia for the US and Europe will soon pile up at regional airports as the expanding Middle East conflict grounds a sizable share of available capacity. Kuehne + Nagel CEO Stefan Paul warned that backlogs will materialise by...
WTO Meet: India Pushes Tech Transfer to Boost Developing Nations’ Trade
India has urged developed nations at the WTO ministerial to adopt concrete technology‑transfer measures that would help developing and least‑developed countries access advanced, environmentally‑sound inputs. The proposal highlights export controls on semiconductor chips and rare‑earth minerals, as well as rigid...
India-UK Trade Deal Faces Challenges Amid West Asia Conflict
India and the United Kingdom are set to activate the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) by early April, granting Indian exporters duty‑free access to 99% of the UK market. However, the ongoing West Asia conflict threatens to disrupt shipping...
The Guardian View on Rachel Reeves’s Spring Statement: Stability Cannot Mean Sacrificing Living Standards | Editorial
Rachel Reeves’s spring statement reaffirmed a commitment to fiscal discipline, citing OBR projections that borrowing will fall and fiscal headroom has increased. The editorial warns that the UK’s exposure to soaring oil and gas prices from the Gulf conflict could...
Wednesday: RBA's Bullock Says March Call 'Live'
The episode covers a sharp rise in oil prices amid Middle East tensions, its impact on global markets, and an upgraded Australian Q4 GDP forecast of 0.7% growth. ANZ economists discuss central banks' cautious stance on inflation, noting higher oil...
US Valuation Premium Shrinks as Global Earnings Surge
Global markets are at or near all-time highs, supported by strong earnings growth around the world. The rest of the world is outperforming the US on a combination of better earnings growth, competitive payout ratios, and lower valuations. As such,...
The Single Market Myth: How Ottawa and the Provinces Can Finally Dismantle Canada’s Costly Internal Trade Barriers
The Macdonald‑Laurier Institute argues that Canada’s internal trade barriers remain a costly, under‑addressed obstacle to growth. While the EU enjoys seamless cross‑border commerce, Canadian provinces still regulate goods, services and professional credentials independently, creating inefficiencies. The report proposes a joint...
International Finance Watchdog Warns Stablecoins Are Increasingly Used in Sanctions Evasion and Money Laundering
The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) released a 42‑page report warning that stablecoins have become the most frequently used virtual asset in illicit transactions, including sanctions evasion by Iran and North Korea. It cited data showing stablecoins accounted for 84%...
#AtlanticDebrief – What’s in Store for the Three Seas Summit? | A Debrief From Amb. Romana Vlahutin
The Atlantic Council’s #AtlanticDebrief interview with Croatia’s Special Envoy Romana Vlahutin outlines the agenda for the 2026 Three Seas Summit in Dubrovnik. Senior Fellow Ian Brzezinski and Vlahutin discuss how the summit will focus on strategic connectivity, energy diversification, and...
How a Crisis over a Stockpile of Uranium Created an Opening for US Reengagement in Niger
The failed December 7, 2025 coup in Benin has left Niger’s military government even more isolated, sharpening a diplomatic opening for Washington. Niger’s junta seized roughly 1,000 tons of uranium yellowcake from French firm Orano, but legal rulings and transit obstacles have frozen...
What the Iran-US War Means for Asia
The Diplomat’s Asia Geopolitics podcast examined the U.S. and Israeli bombing of Iran, framing it as a flashpoint that could reshape Asian strategic calculations. Hosts Ankit Panda and Catherine Putz highlighted how the conflict tests nuclear deterrence credibility and may inspire North...
Critical Minerals in Focus as Major Toronto Mining Conference Underway – by Ian Bickis(CTV News Northern Ontario – March 2,...
The Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) conference in Toronto, drawing over 27,000 attendees, has placed critical minerals at the forefront of its agenda. Industry leaders warned that geopolitical fragmentation is heightening supply‑chain vulnerability for metals such as copper,...
Accredited Official Statistics: GDP Deflators at Market Prices, and Money GDP March 2026 (Spring Statement)
The Treasury published accredited official statistics on GDP deflators and money GDP on 3 March 2026. The dataset provides historical deflator outturns from the 1955‑56 financial year through 2024‑25, sourced from ONS series L8GG (financial years) and MNF2 (calendar years). Money GDP...
Why Do Experts Think Emerging Markets Will Outperform?
Emerging market equities delivered a 33.6% return in 2025, the strongest since 2017, outpacing the MSCI World’s 21.1% gain. Analysts cite continued dollar weakness, lower valuations, and AI exposure as catalysts for further outperformance into 2026. Inflows are expected as...
London Marine Insurers Expand Gulf High-Risk Zone as Mideast Conflict Escalates
London’s marine insurers, via the Joint War Committee, have expanded the Gulf’s high‑risk war‑zone to include waters around Bahrain, Djibouti, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar. The move follows a rapid escalation of Middle‑East hostilities, prompting a five‑fold jump in war‑risk premiums...
Oil Levels Dictate Market Peaks During Exogenous Shocks
Updated chart of our 1-variable stock market. This is how markets behave during exogenous shocks - stocks need oil to peak. Aftermath eco forecasts rarely matter. Same thing happened last year, but with trade uncertainty. Need something to the...
Russian LNG Carrier ‘Arctic Metagaz’ Reportedly Ablaze Off Malta as Maritime Patrol Aircraft Circles
The Russian‑owned LNG carrier Arctic Metagaz caught fire in the central Mediterranean off Malta on Tuesday, with its AIS signal disappearing shortly before the blaze. The vessel, loaded at the Saam floating storage unit, is part of a shadow fleet...
When Rubber Was the Critical Imported Good
At the outset of World War II, the United States relied almost entirely on imported natural rubber, which supplied roughly 70 percent of tire production. When Japan cut off shipments in April 1942, the country faced a crippling rubber famine that limited military...
World Briefs | UAE Bourse to Resume Trading After Iran Strikes
The UAE Capital Markets Authority announced that the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and Dubai Financial Market will resume trading on Wednesday after a two‑day suspension triggered by Iran’s missile and drone strikes. The closure halted billions of dollars in listed...
Europe’s Pharma Trade with the US Remains Critical Despite Tariff Turmoil
U.S. pharmaceutical tariffs on EU imports have risen to 15% after a brief 10% measure, reviving trade tensions despite a prior MFN deal. Europe is pursuing alternative markets, notably a new EU‑India free‑trade agreement that could eliminate up to 11%...
Hormuz Closure Halts All Jebel Ali Container Services
To see exactly which ocean container services are disrupted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz visit Jebel Ali port on Flexport Atlas and look at the list of services calling there. Jebel Ali in Dubai is...
Geopolitics Decoded: Investment Insights Ahead of Headlines
Thoughts? Follow @tallguytycoon - I break down geopolitical events and how they impact investments before the news does.
A Middle Powers Club Would Make the World More Dangerous
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Davos speech called on Canada, India, Australia and Japan to form a middle‑powers club as the liberal order strains under U.S. pressure. The proposal marks a shift toward collective diversification away from the United States...
Iran Conflict Spurs Gas Prices Near $3.5 Threshold
My friend and renowned oil expert Javier Blas has it right. ONE OF THE COSTS OF THE NETANYAHU-TRUMP WAR ON IRAN = A GAS PRICE SURGE. https://t.co/cnsDUpCpbY
US Policy Uncertainty Likely Rising, Outpacing Dollar Index
All things considered, I would expect the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index to be higher... Uncertainty index vs DXY on the weekly: https://t.co/sVGAiUIrV7
Lawmakers Push for Elimination of Indian Duties on US Cotton Amid Stalled Trade Deal
A bipartisan group of House members led by Rep. Jodey Arrington sent a letter to USTR Jamieson Greer urging the removal of India’s 11% tariff on U.S. cotton as a priority in the pending U.S.–India trade talks. They cite the...
Easter Europe Travel Spikes as Middle East Conflict Drives Demand
Ryanair's O'Leary sees surge in Easter bookings to Europe due to Middle East war https://t.co/TDpGBi7ecF
Kevin Warsh: The Radical Fed Chair Who Bridges Tech
Why I’m so bullish on the era of the Radical Fed Chairman: Most technicians aren’t technologists. But Kevin Warsh is both. 👇 https://t.co/90GCOPkuDW
Peru and the Limits of Alarmism About Chinese Investment
The Port of Chancay, inaugurated in 2024, is a joint COSCO‑Volcan venture financed by a $975 million Chinese loan. In its first ten months of operation, the port moved $1.88 billion in trade and generated $234 million in customs revenue, moving toward a...
Bitcoin Can't Be Frozen, Stablecoins Can
People keep asking, “Why not stablecoins”? The most obvious explanation is actually quite simple: stablecoins can be frozen, Bitcoin can’t
Oil Spike Threatens USD’s Medium‑Term Reserve Status
I was on @Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal yesterday to discuss fallout from the spike in oil prices for the global economy and what this means for US reserve currency status. We're getting a risk-off Dollar rally now, but medium-term this...
Markets Price Supply Shock, Real Rates Rise
FWIW/IMHO: markets are pricing in a supply shock. Different from the pandemic, no expectation of rate cuts that wouldn't help. Real rates up.
AI Capex Boom Outpaces Global GDP, Prompting US Shift
“There’s just not enough GDP to support all of them.” @dampedspring returns to @excessreturnpod to break down the funding test behind the AI Capex boom, how the Iran conflict is being priced, and why he’s shifted away from US assets. https://t.co/wooKnQeQKH
European Gas Trades over Five Times U.S., Inventory Crunch.
European natural gas is trading at >5x US natural gas prices. Last time this was the case was August 2024. $EQT $AR $RRC $CRK $CNX $EXE https://t.co/f1wU8S3w6b
Stocks May Need to Tumble as Bonds Buy Crash Insurance
The SPX is now down ~2.5%. As the red annotations show, the 10-year yield is 5 bps lower to 4.06%. Bonds are being bought as crash insurance. This probably means stocks have to crash to keep bonds from trading back to 4.11%. https://t.co/Ks8NfeSfzT
Dollar Surge Flushes Gold, Emerging Market ETFs
The rock solid complacent trends like $GLD, $EEM, and $ACWX all getting flushed today as the dollar rips another day https://t.co/f6LhWCRZLV
Weiss' Strategy Benefits Netanyahu, Trump as CBS Rises
Semafor: "Weiss’ approach has paid some dividends." For Netanyahu and Trump. A new CBS News emerges amid Iran crisis https://t.co/BllROEbkrD