Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Why Iran Isn’t Attacking America’s Bases in Turkey
Iran has launched strikes against U.S. bases in the Gulf States, citing their role in the U.S.-Israel campaign, yet it has refrained from hitting the two American installations in Turkey. Tehran views the Gulf nations as militarily weak and economically vulnerable to drone attacks, making them low‑risk targets. Conversely, Turkey’s battle‑hardened armed forces, extensive drone‑warfare experience, and NATO membership present a formidable deterrent. Additionally, Turkey’s alliance with Azerbaijan adds a geopolitical layer that would dramatically expand any conflict with Iran.
Gold Drops Amid Geopolitical Tension Due to Liquidity Crunch
Why Gold ( XAUUSD ) is heading down despite rising geopolitical escalations ? In short, this is a liquidity event. For detailed context , with potential trade idea on GOLD & SPX , watch the video below (8 minutes video...
UAE Stocks Slide As Trading Resumes After Iran Conflict Closure
UAE equities fell sharply when markets reopened after a two‑day shutdown caused by the US‑Israeli attacks on Iran. The Dubai Financial Market General Index slid up to 4.9%, led by drops in Emirates NBD and Emaar Properties. Abu Dhabi’s FTSE...
Thailand, South Korea Lead Asia’s Oil‑Shock Market Turmoil
In Asia, Thailand and South Korea have the highest GDP exposure to imported oil & so the violence today in Korea and Thai markets reflects fear how that will play out. Note that this is negative for Asia in general but...
Geopolitical Uncertainty Highlights Tourism’s Safety Appeal
Travel sellers at ITB Berlin 2026 warned that the ongoing US‑Israel‑Iran war is pushing tourists toward regions perceived as safe. They highlighted Asia‑Pacific’s stability, low crime rates and effective crisis management as key selling points. Singapore, Taiwan, Japan and Bhutan...
Global Geopolitical Tensions Drive Capital Into Safe Havens:
Geopolitical tensions in 2026 have re‑emerged as a primary driver of global capital flows, prompting investors to seek defensive positions. Tens of billions of dollars have moved into money‑market funds, while traditional safe havens such as U.S. Treasuries, gold, and...
Retailing During Wartime
The emerging conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran threatens the flow of oil and liquefied natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz, potentially pushing crude prices above $100 a barrel. Higher energy costs are expected to translate into...
Zodiac Maritime Stacks Tanker Orderbook
London‑based Zodiac Maritime is expanding its crude carrier renewal by ordering five new tankers in Asia. The deal includes four 319,000‑dwt VLCCs from Jiangsu New Hantong Ship Heavy Industry at roughly $120 million each, slated for 2029 delivery, and a 157,000‑dwt...
Congo-Kinshasa: Mineral Rivalry, Geopolitics and the Imperative of Peace in Eastern DR Congo
Eastern DR Congo’s eastern provinces sit atop lithium, gold, coltan and other critical minerals that power the global energy transition and digital economy. Rising demand has drawn a slate of international actors, from the United States to China, intensifying geopolitical...
Volatility Deepens on Dalal Street; Srinivas Rao Ravuri Advises Selective Approach
Indian equities deepened their decline on Tuesday as fragile sentiment and weaker-than-expected third‑quarter earnings weighed on the market. CIO Srinivas Rao Ravuri highlighted that forward earnings multiples sit around 19‑times, which he finds comfortable but not compelling. He favoured domestic‑driven...
Market View: Gold Rush, Oil Shock & Sea’s Surprise - Markets Brace for a New Volatility Cycle
In this episode, Michelle Martin and market analyst Ryan Huang dissect a volatile global backdrop, covering Asian equity declines, the earnings surge and share‑price drop of Singapore‑based Sea Ltd (Shopee), Singapore’s push to become a regional physical gold hub, and...
Gujarat Gas Shares Plunge 4% After 50% Supply Cut to Industrial Users Amid Middle East Conflict: Report
Gujarat Gas announced a 50% cut in gas supplies to industrial customers after the US‑Iran conflict disrupted regasified LNG imports, sending its shares down 4% to Rs 382 on the BSE. The company, which sources roughly 70% of its gas from...
US Dollar Index Rises Above 99.00 as Middle East Tensions Drive Inflation Fears
The US Dollar Index surged past the 99‑point mark, trading around 99.20 for a third consecutive day, as investors reassessed Federal Reserve rate‑cut expectations. The 10‑year Treasury yield steadied near 4.06%, reflecting higher real yields amid rising inflation concerns. Escalating...
Retail‑Heavy Korean Market Crashes, Triggers Circuit Breaker
*CIRCUIT BREAKER TRIGGERED AFTER S. KOREA'S KOSPI PLUNGES 8% *KOREA'S KOSPI EXTENDS DROP TO 10% AFTER TRADING RESUMES The chart shows that the South Korean KOSPI stock index has doubled since last August (green) and has already corrected 17% from Friday's high...
USPS Suspends Mail to Middle East and Numerous Military Post Offices
The United States Postal Service announced a temporary suspension of acceptance for items bound for 18 countries, citing logistics impacts from the Middle East conflict. The list includes Algeria, Iran, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates, among others. In parallel,...
Divergent Chinese PMIs Suggest Resilient External Demand, but Soft Domestic Environment
China's official manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.0 in February, matching a 33‑month low, while the private RatingDog index rose to 52.1, highlighting a split between domestic weakness and export‑driven resilience. Sub‑indices show production, new orders and employment contracting, even as...
Navigating the Escalation of Conflict in Middle East
Escalating conflict in the Middle East is destabilizing maritime supply chains, with vessel itineraries adjusting by the hour and many shipments facing uncertain destination outcomes. Xeneta’s analyst briefing highlights three immediate pressure points: containers already at sea, forced diversions and...
China’s RatingDog Manufacturing PMI Climbs to 62.1 in February, Services PMI Rises to 56.7
China’s RatingDog Manufacturing PMI surged to 62.1 in February, up from 50.3 in January, while the Services PMI rose to 56.7, both beating market expectations. The strong readings signal a robust rebound in Chinese factory output and service activity. The...
Iran Likely to Shut Hormuz Strait, Threatening Global Oil Supply
According to @Polymarket, there is a 67% chance that Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31. The probability has SOARED in the last few hours. 20% OF THE WORLD’S OIL, AND ~40% OF CHINA’S OIL, FLOWS THROUGH THE...
China's Mixed PMIs Hint at Possible Stimulus
China PMIs Send Mixed Signals as Markets Watch for Stimulus—Nonmanufacturing PMI, which covers both service and construction activity, edged up to 49.5 in February https://t.co/7qblrUNU7k https://t.co/7qblrUNU7k
Taiwan Dollar Drops to Weakest Since May as Stock Outflows Surge
The Taiwan dollar fell to 31.782 per U.S. dollar, its weakest level since May, after foreign investors sold NT$230.2 billion of Taiwanese stocks this week – the largest weekly outflow since at least 2000. The sell‑off was triggered by heightened geopolitical...
US Kills Iran Leaders; War Persists, Oil Spikes
The US just killed Iran's top leaders, but the war isn't ending. The Revolutionary Guard is still fighting, and oil has spiked past $85. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/oiXuHGPp3W
USD/INR Spikes Past 92, Warning of Inflation Surge
Usdinr crossed 92, a very quick move from the 90s. This plus crude will hit inflation in 6.months if it isn't controlled
Iran Conflict Could Turn Canada Into the Market’s Most Reliable Oil Supplier
Oil prices surged as Iran's IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, cutting 70‑80% of traffic. Brent crude rose above $80 per barrel for the first time since July 2024, while U.S. energy stocks outperformed the broader market. Analysts, led...
China Seeks New Oil Sources as Middle East Supply Wanes
CHINA’s options to deal with loss of oil supply from Iran and the Middle East: https://t.co/pf8gYZWvxE
KR Regulators Deploy $10T Stabilization Fund Amid 25% Rally
KR REGULATORS READY W10TN STOCK MKT STABILIZATION FUND DEPLOYMENT I mean they do still know the market is still up 25% this year right?
Market Turmoil Continues in Asia Amid More Middle East Strikes
Asian markets slipped further on March 4 as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated. Iran’s continued attacks and heightened Israeli‑U.S. pressure pushed energy prices higher, while airlines kept flights grounded. South Korea’s KOSPI index dropped again, marking a second consecutive...
US Imposes Preliminary Countervailing Duties on Solar Imports
U.S government sets preliminary countervailing duties on solar imports from India, Indonesia and Laos #energysky -- via pv magazine global: https://t.co/xLDIGb82s4
KOSDAQ Crash Triggers Circuit Breaker, Crypto Flows Questioned
*CIRCUIT BREAKER TRIGGERED AFTER S. KOREA'S KOSDAQ PLUNGES 8% Where did you think all those crypto flows ended up https://t.co/JzbQThyUAl
Geopolitics Continues to Influence Demand From Canada to the US as Capacity Shifts Elsewhere
Canadian airlines are trimming U.S. leisure capacity and redirecting aircraft to Latin America and the Caribbean as geopolitical tensions and trade‑policy shifts dampen cross‑border demand. Air Canada signals that the decline may be bottoming out, while Porter Airlines adds new...
War‑Driven Oil Surge Threatens Gold Market Stability
The US-Iran war has driven up oil prices, stoking inflation fears and lifting yields alongside the dollar. Will this break the gold market? #GOLD #GoldPrice #USIranConflict #Dollar #Stocks #Markets #Macro #Trading https://t.co/ciFOGnfO6T
Majority Demand Congressional Approval Before Trump Acts on Iran
According to a CNN poll, 62% of U.S. adults say that Trump should obtain congressional approval before any further military action in Iran. THE PUBLIC IS TURNING ON THE WAR PRESIDENT. https://t.co/4jYyZSLJ7C
Falling Approvals Shatter Housing Targets
The Australian government’s National Housing Accord, launched on 1 July 2024, set a goal of delivering 1.2 million new dwellings within five years. ABS data show that after the first 15 months, about 81,000 homes—27 % of the target—remain unbuilt, creating a sizable shortfall. The...
U.S. Sees -2% as Volatile; Nikkei Drops 10%
Americans think a -2% day is crazy volatile, while the Nikkei is down 10% in the first three days of March https://t.co/997R5MoBjs
A Wartime Labour Market: The Case of Ukraine
Ukraine’s labor market has endured a massive shock since the February 2022 invasion, losing roughly a quarter of its pre‑war workforce due to displacement, mobilization and casualties. Despite a spike in unemployment above 20% in 2022, the rate fell to...
Oil Price Rise Might Push Peso Back to 59:$1
Rising crude prices, driven by the Iran‑Israel conflict, could push the Philippine peso past the 59 per‑dollar threshold. MUFG forecasts the PHP trading between 58.5 and 59.5 if oil steadies around $90 a barrel, while JP Morgan sees a modest global...
Trump Abandons Iran Regime Change, Hints at Oil Focus
trump has backed away from regime change in iran. so what’s the strategy? if not tehran, then maybe the oil. @gzeromedia
Reactions to Iran War; US-China; Two Sessions; DeepSeek and Qwen
China’s foreign ministry publicly condemned Israeli and U.S. military strikes against Iran, urging an immediate cease‑fire and emphasizing diplomatic solutions. Wang Yi’s call with Israel’s Gideon Sa’ar highlighted Beijing’s call for de‑escalation and protection of shipping lanes in the region....
Americas MGO Prices Soar on US-Iran War
Marine gasoil (MGO) prices in the Americas surged toward $1,000 per metric tonne, marking the highest levels since October 2023. The rally follows the US‑Israel weekend attacks on Iran, which threaten the flow of middle‑distillates through the Strait of Hormuz....
Iran Expands Attacks to Targets Outside Strait of Hormuz
Iran escalated its campaign against regional energy assets, deploying armed drones against the United Arab Emirates' main oil export hub and striking major ports in Oman. The attacks, which originated beyond the Strait of Hormuz, signal a widening of Tehran's...
Oil Prices Surge Higher as Market Adjusts Ceiling Scenarios
Brent crude rose to $85 per barrel on Tuesday, marking a notable surge amid heavy trading. The rally reflects market reaction to escalating tensions in the Middle East and concerns over supply disruptions. Traders are now focusing on how constrained...
France to Help Secure Shipping Lanes
French President Emmanuel Macron announced a new coalition to secure vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea amid the US‑Iran war. The initiative will mobilize military assets, including repositioning the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle to...
White House Offers Shifting Rationales for War with Iran
The Middle East conflict entered its fourth day as the Trump administration launched a military strike against Iran. White House officials have offered a series of shifting rationales—ranging from regime change to preemptive action and nuclear disarmament—despite intelligence assessments indicating...
VC Index Drop Signals Broad Interest Rate Decline
The Venture Capital Index is now down more than 30% from its peak. This reinforces the idea that the entire interest rate curve may be headed materially lower, in my view. Yes — both short and long end of the curve. Also, separately: Just...
Low‑beta, US‑linked European Sectors Stay Shock‑proof
GS Europe: Europe has re-rated in recent years Sectors with high US exposure and a low beta to the market should be mostly immune to recent shocks https://t.co/g2Fd3kpcA5
Venezuela Leads, Five Nations Face Hyperinflation
#HankeInflationDashboard: By my measurements, as of March 1st, this week's top 5 inflators are: 🇻🇪Venezuela — 656.1%/yr 🇰🇵North Korea — 107.8%/yr 🇮🇷Iran— 84.6%/yr 🇱🇾Libya — 63.8%/yr 🇨🇺Cuba — 50.0%/yr https://t.co/FrHE7rOpRu
Iran's Inflation Hits 87.2%, World’s Third‑Highest Rate
#IranWatch🇮🇷: Today, I measure Iran’s inflation at a PUNISHING 87.2%/yr. That's the world's THIRD HIGHEST INFLATION RATE. I remain the only reliable source of inflationary measures in Iran. https://t.co/Ur4qSrFxia
PCE Offers a More Accurate, Comprehensive Inflation Gauge
PCE is a better measure of all spending and takes account of consumer substitution in their spending. CPI’s advantage is speed: they can tabulate it quicker because you only need to check the prices of a pre-determined basket of...
V‑shaped Rebound Likely, but Deleveraging Extends Beyond One Day
Rooting for the immediate v shaped recovery in KOSPI/Nikkei but, in my experience, violent deleveraging events are seldom limited to a single session. Held off on any aggressive dip buying today.
Iran Conflict Spurs Gas Prices Near $3.5 Threshold
My friend and renowned oil expert Javier Blas has it right. ONE OF THE COSTS OF THE NETANYAHU-TRUMP WAR ON IRAN = A GAS PRICE SURGE. https://t.co/cnsDUpCpbY