Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Temnycky in Real Clear Defense on the Impact of Russia’s Full-Scale Invasion on US and European Security
Mark Temnycky argues that Russia’s full‑scale invasion of Ukraine has shattered the post‑Cold War security paradigm in Europe, forcing the United States and its allies to re‑arm and rethink deterrence strategies. He warns that the policy choices made by Washington, European capitals, and Kyiv will determine whether this surge in defense spending translates into lasting stability or fuels a new cycle of crises. The article highlights the urgency of coordinated NATO reforms, deeper burden‑sharing, and the need for a credible long‑term deterrent posture. Temnycky concludes that Europe’s security future hinges on decisive, unified action now.
Will Trump Scramble Santander's Plan to Buy Webster?
Banco Santander’s $12.3 billion bid to acquire U.S. regional bank Webster Financial is now under pressure after President Donald Trump announced he would cut off trade with Spain. The political spat, sparked by Spain’s refusal to allow U.S. military use of...
Webinar Summary: US Supreme Court Ruling Triggers Major Shifts in US Trade Enforcement Strategy
The U.S. Supreme Court’s February 20 decision declared all tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) illegal, immediately halting collection and creating uncertainty for importers. In response, the administration invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act, imposing a...
Is Myanmar’s Military Government Planning Airstrikes on Rare Earth Mines?
A potential supply shock emerged as Myanmar's junta reportedly plans airstrikes on rare‑earth mines in the Kachin‑controlled Pang War region. Chinese mining firms responded by raising national flags on sites and ordering bomb‑shelter construction to signal locations to aircraft. China...
Mortgage Rates Hover Near 5% as Jobs Data Looms
Mortgage rates have eased back toward the 5s today, potentially due to oil transport assurances from the President. The 30-year fixed is just 8 bps away from a 5-handle again, despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Jobs report on Friday...
Trump Officially Nominates Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair as Iran War Complicates Path for Rate Cuts
President Donald Trump formally nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair, aiming for quicker interest‑rate cuts. Warsh, known for advocating balance‑sheet reduction and lower rates, faces a skeptical FOMC amid the escalating U.S.-Israeli...
Middle East War Puts Trans-Pacific Service Contract Talks in Limbo
Container lines have halted 2026‑27 trans‑Pacific service contract negotiations as the Middle East war ties up roughly 10% of global container tonnage and pushes bunker fuel prices higher. The conflict adds uncertainty to cost structures and functional capacity, prompting carriers...
Middle East War Slows Trans-Pacific Service Contract Talks Further
Container carriers are pausing or slowing 2026‑27 trans‑Pacific service contract negotiations as they gauge the fallout from the Middle East war. The conflict has immobilized an estimated 2 %‑10 % of global container tonnage, tightening available capacity. Simultaneously, soaring bunker fuel prices...
EU Unveils Maritime Industrial and Ports Strategies to Boost Shipbuilding, Security, and Decarbonization
The European Commission unveiled two coordinated initiatives—the EU Industrial Maritime Strategy and the EU Ports Strategy—to reinforce Europe’s shipbuilding capacity, secure port operations, and accelerate the sector’s shift to clean energy. Key measures include a Maritime Value Chains Alliance, a...
Qatar LNG Shutdown Sends Global Gas Markets Into Turmoil
Qatar Energy declared force majeure on its LNG exports, halting production at the Ras Laffan plant amid the escalating U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. The shutdown, which affects roughly 20% of global liquefied natural gas, is expected to last at least...
Defense Metals Conditionally Approved for Canadian Infrastructure Funding
Defense Metals received conditional approval for C$1.88 million from Canada’s Critical Minerals Infrastructure Fund to build a 60‑km transmission line delivering up to 35 MW of hydroelectric power to its Wicheeda rare‑earth project in British Columbia. The Wicheeda deposit holds 25.5 million tonnes...
The Best Playbook for Investing During a War Is Usually Doing Nothing
The New York Times argues that the best response to the Iran‑Israel conflict‑driven market turbulence is to stay the course. While short‑term speculation in energy, defense stocks, gold or Treasuries can appear tempting, academic research shows that most investors achieve better...
Mortgage Rates Nearing Sub‑6% Despite Week’s Volatility
Even with all the madness of this week #mortgagerates are almost back below 6% #realestate #housing #chartdaddy #mortgagespreads
New Atlas Tool Tracks Iran War Shipping Disruptions
We just updated Flexport Atlas to better track disruption to container shipping from the Iran war. Go to https://t.co/W2RkZnA4nS and use hotkey “D” to toggle it on. Our status calculations (all real time) Stalled: stayed within 30 km radius for 24h ...
Brokers Note Rising Middle East Demand Following Outbreak of War
Cargo charter brokers report a surge in enquiries after the US‑Israel missile strikes on Iran triggered the grounding of major Gulf carriers. Qatar Cargo, Emirates SkyCargo and Etihad Cargo have largely halted scheduled flights, prompting shippers to seek ad‑hoc charters....
Iran Dispute Threatens US Farm Exports, Especially Olive Oil
🇺🇸🇪🇸USA & Spain are at odds over Iran, and Trump has floated a trade embargo. What could that mean for U.S. ag? On the import side, olive oil would be the biggest victim. USA exported a record $2.4B in farm goods...
Gulf Oil and Gas Crisis Sparks Calls for Renewables Investment
The war between the United States, Israel and Iran has disrupted oil and LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz, halting Qatari LNG production and sharply raising global energy prices. About one‑fifth of world oil and LNG passes the strait,...
Fiscal Rules in Emerging Market Economies
The World Bank’s January 2026 Global Economic Prospects report finds that more than half of emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) now operate under at least one fiscal rule, up from roughly 15 % in 2000. Fiscal rules are linked to medium‑term...
War Is Hell (MLS Edition)
The United States’ declaration of war on Iran has pushed crude oil to around $74 per barrel as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, prompting expectations of higher‑for‑longer energy costs. Higher oil prices are feeding inflation, forcing bond investors...
History Shows Most Nations Experience Mass Displacement—Stay Mobile
That is an old saying I learned in Hong Kong that is meant to convey that any place can become unsafe and that having the ability to go to other places is invaluable. It is a lesson from history that...
Metals Movers: Stainless Insights with ISSDA’s President
In this episode Deepika Singh talks with Rajamani Krishnamurthy, President of the Indian Stainless Steel Development Association (ISDA), about the rapid expansion of India’s stainless‑steel sector and the structural challenges it faces. Krishnamurthy stresses that the biggest hurdle is the prevailing...
Revive US Manufacturing to Secure National Defense
Re: concerns about how loss of manufacturing capacity in the US has put national security at risk in the case of a war. It seems like looking how to address shortages we observe now, with so much US-armed global conflict...
US Reopens Chinese Tech Data Security Scrutiny Amid Military Labels
This is a repeat of what happened in 2020 under the first Trump admin. Back when they first started exploring the TikTok ban as well. Was primarily around how Riot, Epic and others handled US user data. Ultimately...
Ensuring People’s Well-Being Amid Fears of War Escalation
Rising tensions between Iran and Israel have revived concerns over the security of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for nearly one‑fifth of global oil shipments. Analysts outline three scenarios: a contained but prolonged missile exchange, a broader regional war...
China’s Composite PMI Hits 3‑Year Low, RatingDog Peaks
The February PMI updates came across the wires earlier today - the final readings for much of the developed but first reading for China. Notably, the Chinese gov't's own composite dropped to a 3-year low while the 'RatingDog' surged to...
Trump Sends Interior Secretary to Venezuela for Oil Revival
President Trump deployed Interior Secretary Doug Burgum to Venezuela as part of his bid to revive oil & mineral production there. In between conversations with oil and mining executives, Burgum is now meeting w/ interim President Delcy Rodriguez. https://t.co/beZPI3VM4I https://t.co/vc6M08u0pz
Goldilocks Makes Surprise Cameo In US Services Sector
The Institute for Supply Management released a surprisingly strong services‑sector PMI on March 4, showing the index climb to 55.2, well above the 53.5 consensus. New orders surged 4.1% month‑over‑month and employment added roughly 150,000 jobs, underscoring robust demand. Analysts dubbed...
US Must Pay Interest on All Tariff Refunds
"US to Pay Interest If Ordered to Pay Importers Tariff Refunds" https://t.co/An3drmGJ4F It is the law, after all. Question is: how many refunds actually get issued after a lengthy court/administrative battle. The answer should be: all, now. But... https://t.co/xGmrydPr1P
Yield Rise Minimal Despite Growing Middle East Tensions
Mideastern commodity force majeures beginning to populate my X feed Western company evacuations of Mideastern countries beginning to populate my X feed Western investor consensus still heavily weighted to this being a short conflict. Yet 10y UST yields are only up to 4.08%?...
Tariff Roundtable Looks at What Happens Next for Supply Chains
A week after the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling, industry leaders report little immediate impact on sourcing, freight bookings, or trade volumes. Companies are adopting a cautious stance, reviewing inventory and carrier commitments while holding existing network configurations. The ruling provides...
Bitcoin's Drop Signals Inevitable Low‑price Commodity Slump
Can we avoid typical low-price cures toward $40 crude, $3.5 corn in 2026? Bitcoin bear market prove otherwise starts at about $74,000 https://t.co/TATxs2Sdkc
Fed Stuck: No Cuts Amid Rising Stagflation
The Fed is trapped. Oil at $81 → inflation rising. Stocks selling off → growth slowing. Yields above 4% → no room to cut. Stagflation isn't a theory. It's a Tuesday. Rate at 3.5-3.75%. Next meeting March 17. They will do nothing. And that's the problem....
Tariff Uncertainty and Affordability Pressures Causing Canadians to Put Brakes on Car Ownership: Turo
Turo’s fourth State of Car Ownership in Canada shows tariff uncertainty and rising cost‑of‑living pressures are dampening vehicle purchases. Seventy‑five percent of Canadians worry tariffs will lift prices, and one‑third say they are now less likely to buy a car....
EU Anticipates Exemption From US 15% Tariff Increase
EU expects exemption from the US universal tariff boost to 15% https://t.co/XiyLxBsgAB via @jendeben https://t.co/I0YRgVF88F
Trump’s Retreat Proves IEEPA Bans, Not Taxes
Assuming Trump backs off his Spanish Embargo threat (a safe assumption, IMO), it won't just be another TACO. It'll perfectly prove @ATabarrok's point here about why an emergency wartime law like IEEPA would allow a presidential import ban but not...
Spring Fertilizer Supply Fears Grow as Iran War Chokes Key Shipping Route
In this episode, host Sean talks with Stonex analyst Josh Linville about the sudden disruption to global fertilizer markets caused by the U.S. military operation in Iran and the resulting closure of the Strait of Hormuz. They explain how the...
Europe Faces Inflation Shock Twice US Level
Right now, Europe is looking at an inflation shock roughly double that of the US ~ 2%pts
EU Still Half Dependent on Visa, Mastercard
How close is the EU to break free from Visa and Mastercard's grip? https://t.co/S2cCelErDw 47% of the eurozone’s card payment value passed through Visa & Mastercard in 2025! This is not only financial, it is strategic.
Press Release: Global Corporates Bolster FX Risk Management Amidst Trade Uncertainty
Global corporates are intensifying foreign‑exchange risk management as trade volatility spikes. A new Treasury Today survey shows 88% now hedge FX, with 61% of previously unhedged firms contemplating hedging. Despite a 67% surge in hedging costs, activity has risen and...
64% Americans Oppose Tariffs, View Them as Sales Tax
My views on Trump’s tariffs and the tariff man himself: “The public is fed up with these tariffs. 64% of the American public is thumbs down on tariffs. Politically, they're not popular, and the reason is that they're sales taxes on...
Bitcoin Restores Trust Amid Broken Central Banks
This take-and yes dalio too-fundamentally fails to understand why central banks are broken and why they need bitcoin In an age where there is growing distrust everywhere, the only way - and i really mean the ONLY way- to fix the...
Afghanistan and Pakistan Are Facing ‘Open War’. De-Escalation Is Needed
Escalating tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan have erupted into open war, with Pakistan conducting air strikes on Kabul, Kandahar and Bagram, and the Taliban responding by targeting Pakistani military sites. The conflict follows a surge in cross‑border attacks by groups...
Crude Oil Nears Peak, Iran's $200 Threat Unfounded
$USOIL - Crude oil is already showing initial signs of topping as it did last June. I can't believe that some people are gullible enough to believe, that empty threats made by Iran about $200 crude oil prices, are actually...
US Drone Strikes in Iran Kill 742 Civilians
Yesterday, the US military bombed drone sites across Iran. According to the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, 742 civilians, including 176 children, have been killed in the bombings since Saturday. https://t.co/OYnTObNhC0
Cosco Halts Gulf Bookings, Defying Iran Alliance
Cosco suspends bookings on Gulf. China is an Iran ally. Why would a Chinese carrier do this?
Asia‑Europe Air Cargo Capacity Drops 39% Amid Gulf Shutdown
The Loadstar - Air cargo capacity on key Asia-Europe corridors has fallen 39% following the shutdown of major Gulf airspace and hubs amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East. https://t.co/XxAzcLFVzn https://t.co/VVlvHRVoSr
Shipping Lines Suspend Bookings, Reroute Vessels over Middle East Threats
Container shipping companies halt bookings, divert vessels due to Middle East risks https://t.co/WzcNxIAkRJ via @WSJ
Exclusive Macro Breakdown of Today's Rally Unveiled
I just posted a detailed macro breakdown of today's rally on @SliceApp This is where I share the deeper analysis, market correlations, macro trade ideas, and lessons I don't post anywhere else Join the community 👉 https://t.co/2RO8ANwj2x https://t.co/TKe1RoxUOt
Liquidity Buffers Intended for Crises Are Being Hoarded
Great point in @SecScottBessent speech: Post-2008 liquidity buffers were designed to be spent in a crisis. Instead, they are treated as untouchable minimums and so banks hoard liquid assets rather than deploy them, making stress worse. (1/3) @vtg2 @BrendanPedersen @amacker...
Trump Trade War Slashes US Exports to China 19%
This is the big one, MUST READ Thorough objective new analysis of the impact of Trump's trade war on China-US trade including on key industries @PIIE @ChadBown https://t.co/5eQUPlo1xx