Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Abercrombie & Fitch Forecasts Muted Annual Sales Amid Tariff Uncertainty
Abercrombie & Fitch announced it will factor a 15 percent U.S. tariff into its fiscal 2026 outlook, projecting net‑sales growth of 3‑5 percent and earnings per share between $10.20 and $11. The company estimates the tariff will shave about 70 basis points from net sales, a smaller hit than the 170‑basis‑point impact it warned of for 2025. Analysts had expected 4.2 percent sales growth, so the forecast falls slightly short, while the EPS midpoint exceeds expectations. Shares fell roughly 7 percent after the release.
Canada, Brazil Launch AI Push to Find Nickel Deposits
Canada and Brazil have signed a technical cooperation agreement to apply artificial intelligence to nickel exploration. The Geological Survey of Canada and Brazil’s Geological Survey will merge geology, geochemistry, geophysics and remote‑sensing data into a shared AI‑driven modelling platform. Initial...
A Year without USAID: In Kenya, the Shock Reaches Herders and Hospitals
A year after the Trump administration’s stop‑work orders halted U.S. development assistance, Kenya is feeling the loss of roughly $470 million per year that USAID had funneled into its economy, 80 % of it earmarked for health. The abrupt funding gap coincides...
Morning Market Brief
In this Morning Market Brief, Lars Fuller explains the S&P's rebound after a 2.5% drop, attributing it to U.S. actions securing oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which lowered oil prices from $77 to the $74‑$75 range. He predicts...
Kroenig Quoted in The New York Times on US Policy in Iran
The New York Times quoted Atlantic Council senior director Matthew Kroenig on March 3, revealing that President Trump is expected to favor a rapid, limited operation in Iran rather than a drawn‑out conflict. Kroenig, a nuclear strategy expert, said the administration aims to...
Kroenig on Reagan Institute Podcast on US Policy Toward Iran
On March 3, Atlantic Council vice‑president and Scowcroft Center senior director Matthew Kroenig appeared on the Reagan Institute podcast to discuss U.S. policy toward Iran. He examined the tension between preemptive military options and diplomatic engagement amid Tehran’s nuclear advancements and...
CPKR EBITDA Surges
Macro: capacity leverage and RWA demand lifted CPKR Q4 EBITDA +19.5% (FY+46.7%). Key: whole‑hog optimization, low leverage. Risk: execution/export cycles. Trade: buy on pullback <$16.50. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Fed Likely to Hold Rates, May Tighten if Inflation Persists
NEW: Beth Hammack of @ClevelandFed tells @nytimes that with inflation too high and rates at neutral, the Fed should be on hold for "quite some time." The next move may also not necessarily be down: "If we don’t see inflation...
Jefferies Faces Scrutiny over MFS, First Brands Exposure
Jefferies Financial Group disclosed a £100 million exposure to the collapsed UK lender Market Financial Solutions, prompting a 9% plunge in its shares that later stabilized but fell an additional 2%. The bank also faces lawsuits over a $715 million receivable tied...
Good News, Bad News, Stupid News
Barclays released a research paper flagging the risk of stranded transition assets, suggesting that wind and solar projects could lose value despite soaring oil and gas prices. The paper arrives amid heightened geopolitical tension in the Middle East, which has...
U.S.-Iran Attacks, Trump Tariffs: Where Should Investors Draw The Line?
U.S.–Iran hostilities and renewed Trump tariff threats pushed the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow below their 50‑day moving averages, deepening market volatility. The IBD Breakout Opportunities ETF (BOUT) gapped down, testing its 10‑week average, while individual breakout candidates like Ubiquiti, Motorola...
Britain Needs to Keep a Cool Head over Middle East, UK PM Starmer Says
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer urged the nation to keep a cool head over the Middle East conflict, addressing public anxiety about potential escalation. He responded to criticism from U.S. President Donald Trump over Britain’s limited backing of U.S. strikes...
TIGA Calls on the UK Government to Strengthen the Video Games Expenditure Credit in the Upcoming Autumn Budget
The UK games trade body TIGA is urging the government to boost the Video Games Expenditure Credit (VGEC) in the upcoming Autumn Budget, proposing a 53% credit rate for projects with budgets up to £23.5 million. It also recommends expanding qualifying...
Middle East War Threatens Oil Markets, Accelerates Clean Energy Shift
Many consider a widespread war in the Middle East the worst-case scenario for the global oil and gas markets. That war is here, and it could have long-lasting impacts on energy and climate policy. This week on Zero, I speak...
China Keeps Aluminum Cap, Prices Hit New High
The timing of our China Macro Watch report on February 25 has proven fortuitous. In that note, we laid out why Beijing is unlikely to lift its 45mn-ton aluminum output cap — a policy that has effectively anchored global supply...
Animal Spirits: A Wave of Redemptions
Blackstone’s flagship private credit fund is experiencing a wave of redemptions, marking one of the sharpest outflows in the private‑credit space this year. The fund’s investors have withdrawn roughly 5% of assets within a few weeks, prompting concerns over liquidity...
Safer Global Outlook Threatens Gold's Recent Surge
A Safer World Could Pressure Stretched Gold - Russia's invasion of Ukraine was a signal to buy gold, and subduing Iran could mark the opposite. Since the "unlimited friendship" between presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin in 2022, leadership in...
US Submarine Sank Iran’s Warship Off Sri Lanka Coast, Says Hegseth
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced that a U.S. submarine fired a torpedo that sank the Iranian frigate IRIS Dena in international waters off Sri Lanka. Sri Lankan authorities recovered several bodies, reported at least 80 deaths and rescued 32...
Indian Rupee Tumbles to a New Record Low Amid the US-Iran War. What's Next?
The Indian rupee fell to a new record low as the US‑Iran conflict sparked safe‑haven buying of the dollar and pushed oil prices higher. Higher oil costs and the realization that U.S. rate cuts may be delayed have lifted inflation...
Russian Oil & Gas Monthly - February, 2026
The February 2026 edition of Russian Oil & Gas Monthly highlights a sudden escalation in Middle‑East tensions, specifically the outbreak of hostilities involving Iran, Israel, and the United States. The conflict, which unfolded at the end of February, disrupted global...
US$12.5 Trillion in Travel & Tourism Investment Drive to Shape G20 Competitiveness Through 2035
The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) projects $12.5 trillion of travel‑and‑tourism investment across G20 economies through 2035, outpacing demand growth of 3.3% per year with a 4.6% annual investment rise. The report, released at ITB Berlin with Oxford Economics, warns...
Accumulate Bitcoin at $60‑65k Amid Deleveraging Dip
Macro: BTC -50% from ATH; driven by deleveraging and capitulation. Catalysts: Fed cuts, ETF adoption, tokenization. Risk: liquidity squeeze. Trade: accumulate BTC dips $60–65k. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Report: Trump Administration Reviews Tencent Gaming Investments over Security Concerns
The Trump administration is reviewing Tencent’s gaming investments for potential national‑security risks. Senior officials are assessing the Chinese conglomerate’s stakes in Riot Games, Epic Games, Supercell and other Western studios. The review comes amid heightened U.S.–China tensions and just before...
The Real Commodity Story
Under the Bretton Woods gold standard, oil was effectively pegged at about $2.60 per barrel, delivering remarkable price stability from 1950 until the system’s collapse. When the United States abandoned the gold‑linked dollar in the early 1970s, oil prices became...
Vietnam Emerges as Global Economic Growth Leader: Harvard, S&P Research
Vietnam is projected to outpace all economies in GDP growth over the next decade, according to Harvard’s Growth Lab and S&P Global research. Manufacturing activity accelerated in February, with the PMI rising to 54.3, marking eight months of expansion and...
Prediction: The Current Bull Market Will End When This Happens
The article warns that the AI‑driven bull market, which has lifted the S&P 500 88.5% since early 2023, could end if AI data‑center spending wanes. It highlights more than $600 billion in cloud‑infrastructure capex this year and the resulting boost to GDP...
Research: UK Official Holdings of International Reserves: February 2026
The UK’s official international reserves rose in February 2026, reaching approximately £115 billion, driven primarily by gains in foreign‑currency assets. Gold holdings remained steady at around £10 billion, while IMF‑related assets showed a marginal increase. The reserve portfolio’s composition shifted slightly toward US‑dollar‑denominated...
More on China and the Middle East War
China has launched a high‑profile diplomatic campaign to halt the escalating Iran‑U.S./Israel war, calling for an immediate cease‑fire and a return to negotiations. Beijing emphasizes its flexible, interest‑based partnerships with Tehran rather than a binding alliance, underscoring that the Middle...
Europe Bonds Extend Declines on Inflation Risk From Energy Spike
European sovereign bonds slipped for a third consecutive session as surging oil and natural‑gas prices revived inflation concerns. The rally in energy commodities coincided with a U.S. initiative to secure a key Middle‑East shipping lane, which failed to calm markets....
Indonesia’s Rating Outlook Takes Further Blow as Fitch Cuts View
Fitch Ratings lowered Indonesia's credit outlook to negative, citing rising policy uncertainty. The agency kept the long‑term foreign‑currency issuer default rating at BBB, an investment‑grade level. This follows Moody's February decision to downgrade the outlook amid concerns over governance under...
Trump’s Unaffordable Midterm Stimulus
The Congressional Budget Office released a stark outlook showing U.S. deficits expanding by nearly $1.5 trillion and the debt‑to‑GDP ratio surpassing 115 percent. President Donald Trump is proposing a fresh stimulus package—accelerated infrastructure grants, tax rebates, and expanded credit for small firms—designed...
Oil Crisis Drives Crypto Survival; AI Rules Written in Blood
@sandy_carter `s POV `Iran War, An Oil Crisis, A Crypto Stress Test, And An AI Reckoning` Oil. Crypto. AI. Most coverage is missing the "Big 3" takeaways: 1️⃣ Crypto’s Dual Identity: It’s a "risk asset" for Western traders but a "survival tool"...
China’s Sovereign Debt Is Becoming a Strategic Alternative to US Treasuries: Economist
Chinese sovereign bonds are positioning themselves as a strategic alternative to US Treasuries, driven by investor demand for geopolitical hedges. Recent dollar‑denominated issuances in Hong Kong saw a 30‑times oversubscription, with coupon rates closely matching Treasury yields. Economist Xu Qiyuan...
DERIVSOURCE: Options Trading Spikes on Iran War
The US‑Israel‑Iran war has triggered an immediate surge in derivatives trading, especially ultra‑short‑dated options. Zero‑days‑to‑expiration (0DTE) contracts now dominate SPX volume, accounting for two‑thirds of activity. Traders are buying protective puts to hedge against further escalation, while crypto options have...
Geopolitical Instability Heightens Black Swan Scenario Concerns
Allianz’s latest Risk Barometer indicates that 51% of more than 3,000 executives view a geopolitically‑driven global supply‑chain paralysis as the most likely Black Swan event within five years, with a global internet outage close behind. The survey highlights rising concern...
Why Iran Isn’t Attacking America’s Bases in Turkey
Iran has launched strikes against U.S. bases in the Gulf States, citing their role in the U.S.-Israel campaign, yet it has refrained from hitting the two American installations in Turkey. Tehran views the Gulf nations as militarily weak and economically...
Gold Drops Amid Geopolitical Tension Due to Liquidity Crunch
Why Gold ( XAUUSD ) is heading down despite rising geopolitical escalations ? In short, this is a liquidity event. For detailed context , with potential trade idea on GOLD & SPX , watch the video below (8 minutes video...
KOSPI Plunges to Its Steepest Drop Since 2008
South Korea’s KOSPI index dropped the most since the 2008 financial crisis. It’s all starting to fit together My latest at Culpium https://t.co/75TudacVv5
Choose: AI Panic or US Debt Concern, Not Both
It seems difficult to say we should worry about AI and the US debt. Seems like its going to be one or the other.
Markets Face Redemptions, Housing Woes, and AI Optimism
Animal Spirits: A Wave of Redemptions Geopolitics vs the stock market vs AI Is inflation risk back? Is it time for a correction? The optimistic view on AI The most broken housing market in America The private credit crisis of confidence & more https://t.co/3VV58HRcdq https://t.co/V5eIvRDjMe
Iran's Turmoil Hurts Both Sides of K‑shaped Economy
Between falling stock prices and rising gas prices, events in Iran are negatively impacting both ends of the K-Shaped Economy.
Asian Tech Stocks Tumble Amid US‑Iran War Risk
Asian tech stocks reel as US-Iran war threatens infrastructure and supply chains https://t.co/oxpKfheSqI via @scmpnews
Markets Wobble as Oil Spikes; US Vows Tanker Protection
For a few hours yesterday morning, markets looked very scary. Brent was going vertical, USD was rising like crazy and S&P 500 was plummeting. The US calmed things down by promising to insure and escort oil tankers, but one Iranian...
Markets in Nervous Consolidation After Extended AP Equity Rout
Nervous Consolidation Featured after the Asia Pacific Equity Rout was Extended: The dollar is trading a little softer today, but the tone is one of nervous consolidation. The market is digesting reports that Iran has reached out to negotiate the...
South Asian Fertilizer Output Slips Amid Qatar LNG Outage
Fertilizer manufacturers in South Asia are beginning to cut output due to an outage at Qatar’s LNG export plant ⚠️ 🇮🇳 Some Indian manufacturers started reducing production at urea plans 🇵🇰 Pakistan’s gas distributor declared FM on to fertiliser plants https://t.co/LUjKJcUg25
Markets Consolidate Amid APAC Slide, Japan Threatens Intervention
Nervous consolidation is the main feature in the capital markets after Asia Pacific equities extended their slide. $USD is mostly softer but in yesterday's ranges. Japan's MOF threatened intervention. See https://t.co/24YmyiETAN https://t.co/XmEx257iS8
Trump's Hormuz Plan Could Hike India's Energy Costs
Trump’s Hormuz strategy may raise energy costs as India faces fertilizer and LNG supply risks | Mathrubhumi English https://t.co/BTL63LOcou
Swiss Inflation Low, Money Supply Growth On Target
Switzerland’s inflation rate at 0.03%/yr is at the lower end of the Swiss target range of 0-2%. NO SURPRISE. Switzerland’s money supply (M3) is within Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 4.4%-6.4%/yr at 5.3%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/wDVH5hwQyz
EU Ranks Third in Global Fossil Fuel Import Dependence
Europe remains one of the economies most exposed to volatility in global energy markets. The EU still depends on imported fossil fuels for close to 60% of its energy needs. Among large economies, only Japan and South Korea have higher levels of...
Geopolitics Threaten Chinese Firms' Access to Western Markets
What I don’t understand is the position of PRC companies. Do they want the headache of dealing with geopolitics? They’re competitive in their own right. If this goes on, Chinese products will be shut out of Western markets.