Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
China’s Big Bet on Central Asia Is Paying Off
China’s investment strategy in Central Asia is moving beyond the debt‑trap stereotype, emphasizing joint ventures and infrastructure that fuel industrial growth. In 2025, Chinese foreign direct investment rose roughly 15% year‑on‑year, with Kazakhstan alone attracting about $12 billion in energy projects. The region’s sovereign‑debt ratios stay under 30% of GDP, indicating sustainable financing. Analysts argue the partnership now reflects genuine interdependence rather than one‑sided dependence.
Global Disruptions Seen to Open Trade Opportunities for Asean – DTI
The Philippine Department of Trade and Industry says ongoing global disruptions – from the Middle East conflict to the US‑China trade war – are creating fresh trade openings for ASEAN. At the pre‑ASEAN Business Environment Forum (ABEF), DTI executive director...
France Deploys Warships, Europe Stays Engaged Amid Oil Surge
france sending warships to the med/red sea and potentially toward hormuz — framing it as “strictly defensive” and about freedom of navigation. message: europe won’t be (completely) sidelined as us–israel–iran escalation hits shipping lanes and pushes oil toward $100+.
REPORTS OF THE DEATH OF THE BUSINESS CYCLE ARE VASTLY EXAGGERATED
Kevin Muir argues that claims of the business cycle’s demise are overstated, noting that cyclical patterns still shape macroeconomic outcomes. He points to a recent tipping point where labor market slack is eroding, causing unemployment to rise faster than expected....
📈 Data to Start Your Week
The Strait of Hormuz closure removed roughly 20 million barrels per day, creating the largest oil shock in history and dwarfing the next five biggest disruptions combined. In the AI arena, Anthropic’s Claude has surged to about 70% of U.S. business...
The Global Week Ahead
Oil prices surged above $100 per barrel as the Iran‑US‑Israel conflict intensifies, leaving the Strait of Hormuz gridlocked. G7 finance ministers are meeting to discuss a coordinated release of strategic oil reserves, while the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank...
From Infrastructure Investment to Expanded Market Access: China’s Belt and Road Initiative in Africa and the Implications for U.S. Trade...
China’s Belt and Road Initiative has propelled its trade with Africa to $348 billion in 2025, a 17.7% jump driven largely by a surge in Chinese exports and massive infrastructure‑focused loans. The initiative recently expanded zero‑tariff market access to all 53...
VOL REPORT: Stagflation Fears Drive Widening Volatility Risk Premium
Stagflation concerns have pushed volatility risk premiums to record levels across commodities and equities. One‑month implied volatility for crude oil surged to 104%, the highest since 2020 and near 2008 crisis peaks, with the volatility risk premium now almost twice...
Spain Targets 2028 Digital Euro to Cut US Dependence
USD stablecoins guarantee a digital euro; now we have even more proof of this from Spain: “Europe needs a sovereign payment architecture,” and “the noticeable increase in US stablecoin-based financial intermediation increases the urgency.” Spain Pushes for 2028 Launch of...
Strait of Hormuz Shutdown Starts Impacting Brent Prices
My chat with @SoumayaKeynes about oil on the @FT podcast. When we did this on Thursday, Brent was $83 and there was lots of humming and hawing if they can go higher. We discussed the shutdown of the Strait of...
JPMorgan Just Put a 10% Price Tag on the Iran War
JPMorgan’s head of global market intelligence warned that the Iran war could push the S&P 500 down about 10%, citing oil prices breaching $120 a barrel and heightened inflation risk. The bank’s outlook marks a sharp reversal from earlier estimates of...
2 Big UK Car Associations Are Telling Drivers to Ditch Non-Essential Journeys as Oil Soars Above $100 a Barrel
Oil prices surged past $100 a barrel after the Iran‑related conflict disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, sending crude to near $120 in a single day. In response, the UK’s AA and RAC urged motorists to skip non‑essential trips and adopt...
Recession Odds Jump on Kalshi After Oil Tops $100
Prediction‑market platform Kalshi saw recession odds climb above 34% on Monday, the highest level since November, after U.S. crude oil breached the $100 per barrel threshold. The surge in oil prices follows recent Middle‑Eastern output cuts and the closure of...
As Trump Tariff Refund Process Takes Shape, Importers Remain Uncertain
U.S. Customs and Border Protection announced it will create a refund process for Trump‑era tariffs invalidated by the Supreme Court, aiming to launch within 45 days. The agency has not yet detailed how importers will file refunds in the Automated...
Stagflation's Real Impact on Stocks Explained
Everyone is suddenly talking about stagflation… but most people have no idea what that actually means for the stock market #stockmarket #stocks #stagflation
Europe’s “Limited Responsibility” Model Must Go
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned that Europe’s “limited responsibility” fiscal framework must be abandoned to protect prosperity and sovereignty. She made the remarks at an informal European Council meeting and the Munich Security Conference, calling for deeper fiscal...
Iran Conflict Tests 2026 Air Cargo Outlook
Xeneta’s March 5 report warns that the Iran‑U.S./Israel conflict is reshaping the 2026 air cargo outlook. February showed a 6 % YoY volume rise and spot rates up 5 % to $2.58/kg, indicating resilience. With the Strait of Hormuz closed, jet‑fuel costs could...
What Ukraine Can Learn From Poland’s Rocky EU Accession in 2004
Ukraine has set 2027 as its target for full EU membership, framing accession as an existential and strategic priority amid an ongoing war. Since accession talks began in June 2024, Kyiv has completed screening of 33 negotiation chapters in under...
Zimplats Heads for Government Talks as Unpaid Export Proceeds Surge 158%
Zimplats, Zimbabwe's leading PGM producer, will meet the government to resolve delayed local‑currency payments under the Reserve Bank's 30% export surrender policy. The company's deferred liquidation account swelled 158% to US$78.1 million between June 2025 and December 2025, reflecting export proceeds...
Pre-Markets Down as Middle East Tensions Remain
Pre‑market trading is under pressure as the Iran conflict pushes WTI and Brent crude above $100 a barrel, lifting oil prices 78% year‑to‑date. Major indices are slipping, with the Dow down 1.16%, the S&P 500 off 1.05% and the Nasdaq losing...
Iran War Pushes Rupiah Close to Historic Low
The United States‑Israeli war on Iran has driven the Indonesian rupiah to Rp 17,009 per dollar, flirting with its 1997‑1998 crisis low. Bloomberg data show the currency briefly breaching the Rp 17,000 psychological barrier before settling near Rp 16,950. The conflict has also...
Iran Names a New Supreme Leader. What to Know About the Successor to the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
Iran's Assembly of Experts appointed 56‑year‑old Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late Ayatollah, as the new supreme leader amid an ongoing war with Israel and heightened attacks across the Middle East. The appointment reinforces the Revolutionary Guard’s hard‑line stance and...
Calm Amid Storm: Indian Founders Hold Steady As Middle East Tensions Rise
Escalating US‑Israel and Iran conflict is disrupting tech hubs across the Middle East, prompting global giants like Microsoft, Nvidia and Amazon to shut their Dubai offices and shift staff to remote work. Indian founders based in Dubai report that day‑to‑day...
GOP Whip Tom Emmer Predicts Oil Prices Will Drop After Iran War
House Majority Whip Tom Emmer told CNBC that oil prices, which surged above $100 per barrel after Middle Eastern production cuts tied to the U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran, will "tumble" once the operation concludes. President Donald Trump echoed the short‑term...
Global Economy Faces More Violent, Frequent Shocks
Thank you, Andrew, Becky, and Joe for the conversation on Squawk Box this morning. FYI, here is one of the clips... https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/03/09/the-global-economy-is-subject-to-more-violent-and-frequent-shocks-says-mohamed-el-erian.html ... and here is the full interview: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/03/09/watch-cnbcs-full-interview-with-allianz-chief-economic-advisor-mohamed-el-erian.html #economy #markets @cnbc #oil #middleeastwar
Putin Warns Iran War Could Shut Hormuz Oil Flow
MOSCOW, March 9 (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday that the Iran war had triggered a global energy crisis and cautioned that oil production dependent on transport through the Strait of Hormuz could soon come to a...
Sanchez Challenges Trump over Iran War Policy
Why Spain’s Sanchez is standing up to Trump on the Iran war https://t.co/Jq0rQAMH0R via @rorihuela https://t.co/sF1Tq53V7f
Iran Warns Oil Tankers to Tread Carefully in Hormuz
Oil tankers transiting Strait of Hormuz ‘must be very careful,’ Iran foreign ministry warns: CNBC $USO $XLE
China Condemns Interference, Defends Iran's New Leader
China Says Opposes Any Targeting of New Iran Leader "China opposes interference in other countries' internal affairs under any pretext, and Iran's sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity should be respected," he said when asked about the threats against the new leader. ...
New Pipeline Could Ease Hormuz Strait Oil Disruption
Read @JavierBlas on the oil pipeline that could ameliorate the closure of the Straight of Hormuz https://t.co/hfkrPgLpIy https://t.co/BIgHZhk6rA
China's PPI Negative Three Years, Signaling Persistent Deflation
China is in the grip of a DEFLATION. In February, its Producer Price Index (PPI) was NEGATIVE at -0.9%/yr. If that's not bad enough, China's PPI has been negative for 3 STRAIGHT YEARS. DEFLATION = AN ANEMIC MONEY SUPPLY GROWTH STORY. https://t.co/HLuNvjATSK
Quit Intentions Hit Lowest Point Since Survey Start
The % of workers who plan to quit their jobs has fallen to its lowest level since the start of the NY Fed's survey. People who have a job are not giving them up right now https://t.co/p7kO4PdQ2A
Significant Break Identified in Time Series Data
We will of course need careful empirical analysis to be sure, but this is a very strong and telling break in the time series. https://t.co/r6avYSPdM6
Brazilian Real Surges, Echoing Post‑Ukraine Shock
In the last two trading days, the Brazilian Real has outperformed every other EM currency. This parallels price action after Russia invaded Ukraine. The same terms of trade shock that took $/BRL to 4.50 then is happening again now. Prime...
Taiwan Premier's Japan Baseball Visit Strains Tokyo‑China Relations
Taiwan’s premier made a personal trip to Japan and appeared in public to watch the island’s baseball team in action, a rare visit that risks deteriorating Tokyo’s ties with China further https://t.co/CqBObJKdDb
Even After Iran's Surrender, Oil Recovery Weeks Away
If the war ended today with Iran's complete and total surrender, Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic would take two weeks to return to normal and Gulf oil production two months to get back to pre-war levels. And that's optimistic. https://t.co/o3CKt61EZn
Turkey's Economy Surged While Saudi and Iran Stagnated
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: Before the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, the economic performance of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Iran were virtually identical. The only economy in the region that boomed was Turkey. A GRAPH IS WORTH A THOUSAND WORDS. https://t.co/1l6xvZVSll
Nowcast Shows Shipping Volumes Collapse, Dragging Economy
Some weekly inputs are coming into our nowcast-model today, and it looks pretty painful to be honest. Especially in growth terms. The shipping/trucking/export/import volumes look bad. Really bad. So this is starting to impact the economy (already)..
France Says G7 Still Hesitant on Oil Stockpile Releases
France says G-7 is not there yet on releasing oil stockpiles https://t.co/aduCab1b7z via @WHorobin @Alemrome https://t.co/YIIOlUuvMQ
Year‑long 10% Energy Surge Adds 40bps Inflation, Cuts Growth
1/5 A 10% increase in energy prices that persists for a year would push global inflation up by 40 basis points and slow economic growth by 0.1-0.2%, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said. So, what price measures "persists for a...
China’s Low Inflation Mirrors Slower Money Supply Growth
China’s inflation rate comes in at 1.3%/yr in February, BELOW its 2% target. China’s money supply (M2) is growing at 9.0%/yr, BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 10.0%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its inflation target of 2%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY =...
G7 Finance Ministers Address Global Economy Amid Middle East Conflict
Today, on the invitation of Minister Roland Lescure of France, which holds the G7 Presidency, I took part in a meeting of G7 Finance Ministers on the global economic situation and Middle East conflict. My statement on the meeting: https://t.co/NnpeYX73nn...
Beyond Price Control: New Roles for a Full US SPR
People recoil at the idea of using the SPR just to damp prices. But now that the US has plenty of domestic oil, what other purposes would it serve? What other conditions would be an appropriate time to use it?
Oil Spikes Above $119 as Supply Cuts, War Fears Loom
LONDON, March 9 (Reuters) - Oil prices surged to more than $119 a barrel on Monday, hitting levels not seen since mid-2022, as some major producers cut supplies and fears of prolonged shipping disruption gripped the market due to the...
Global Bonds Tumble as Oil Spikes on Middle East Conflict
LONDON/SINGAPORE, March 9 (Reuters) - Bonds across the globe sank on Monday as a rapidly worsening U.S.-Israeli war with Iran briefly pushed oil prices near $120, heightening investor fears over inflation which they bet may prompt European central banks to...
Seizing Iran’s Kharg Port Could Halve Oil Output
LONDON, March 9 - Iran's oil exports would stall and output halve if the U.S. and Israel were to seize its port on Kharg Island, triggering further attacks from Tehran on regional oil infrastructure, JP Morgan said in a note.
G7's 400‑Million‑Barrel Release May Mask Iran Conflict Risks
G7 countries looking at releasing oil reserves. Maybe 400 million barrels. How much impact will this have? What if the Iran war continues, and reserves are drawn down?
June Fed Rate‑cut Odds Drop to 40% Amid Oil Surge
Market expectations of a June rate cut from the Fed have fallen to around 40%, close to their lowest levels in months following the run-up in oil prices, according to CME Group https://t.co/1DRbhts0Fk
Energy Shock Forces ECB Rate Hikes, Traders Bet Higher
Energy shock rewrites the ECB’s rate path as traders bet on hikes https://t.co/PhHe7FAJb5 via @highisland @greg_ritchie https://t.co/FvJg4WW5Ei
EU Secures Russian Arctic LNG Ahead of Gas Ban
EU Buys 100% of Russian Arctic LNG Just 9 Months Before Planned Gas Ban. And the Iran war impact? https://t.co/235AGjQMDs