Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Hormuz Closure Sends Gas Prices Soaring, LNG Cargoes Toward Asia
The recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a sharp rise in global natural‑gas prices, except in North America, which remains insulated by abundant domestic supply. The disruption forced several LNG carriers originally bound for Europe to reroute toward Asian markets, tightening European supply and boosting spot rates. Analysts expect the price surge to persist while geopolitical tensions remain unresolved. The shift underscores Asia’s growing role as a fallback destination for LNG amid supply shocks.
China Searches for a Way Out of Brazil’s Steel Barriers
Chinese steel exporters are confronting steep anti‑dumping duties in Brazil, ranging from $285 to $710 per tonne, which could render Chinese imports unviable for up to five years. The duties target pre‑painted, cold‑rolled, and coated steel, prompting Chinese firms to...
Carney’s Iran Misstep Highlights Need for Policy Reset
Carney’s Early Iran Misstep — Time to Reset Stick with this interview. It's long, complex, and not always easy to understand, but at the end of it I felt like I understood the dilemma facing MarkJCarney and Canada over Iran...
Costco Issues Urgent Warning to Shoppers
U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have pushed crude oil into the mid‑$70‑per‑barrel range, sending the national average gasoline price up 27 cents to $3.25 per gallon. Analysts warn the pump price could climb to $3.50‑$3.70 soon and possibly breach...
2026 Geopolitical Turmoil Drives Global Oil Price Swings
The geopolitical rollercoaster that is 2026 continues and is impacting global oil prices. #canada🇨🇦 #canada #trade #energy
Oil Prices Plunge as Trump Signals Iran War Nearing End
U.S. President Donald Trump’s remarks that the conflict with Iran is “very complete” sent oil markets tumbling. Crude futures dropped about 6.9%, settling at $84.62 a barrel, the steepest decline in weeks. Trump claimed U.S. forces had neutralized Iranian naval...
Trump's Iran Comment Pushes Oil Below $90, Markets Rally
As I noted in this thread, no oil infrastructure was damaged. This was all about waiting for a resolution to gets the ships moving again. Looks like that happened and the market is pricing in the end of the war. Headlines * TRUMP...
Former Ag Secretary Says Tariffs Threaten Key Export Markets
Former U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Dan Glickman warned that presidential tariffs are endangering key export markets, especially for soybeans. He highlighted that U.S. agriculture relies heavily on overseas sales and that recent tariff measures have squeezed demand and farmgate prices....
Markets Watching for Trade Developments Ahead of Trump-Xi Talks
Agricultural markets are closely monitoring the upcoming face‑to‑face meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing at the end of March. The talks follow a late‑October summit that produced a trade framework committing China to 25 million...
The Company Behind One of Trump's Oft-Worn Shoe Brands Is Suing His Administration over Tariffs
Footwear maker Weyco Group, owner of Florsheim, filed a lawsuit in the U.S. Court of International Trade seeking refunds for tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. The company alleges it paid up to a 145% duty on Chinese imports and...
Markets Rebound as Iran Conflict Eases and Oil Reserves Released
If you’re wondering how the stock market closed green after oil dropped 30% Here’s what just changed: > President Trump just signaled the war with Iran may be nearing an end > G7 nations are reportedly considering releasing up to 400M barrels from...
What I Got Wrong About the Post-Global Financial Crisis Recovery ❤️🩹
On March 9 2009 the S&P 500 closed at a historic low of 676, marking the bottom of the Global Financial Crisis market decline. The National Bureau of Economic Research later confirmed the recession officially ended in June 2009, but did not announce this...
Stocks Recover as Oil Retreats From $119: Stock Market Today
Crude oil futures hovered just below $119 per barrel, easing fears of a supply shock amid heightened Middle‑East tensions. The broader market rebounded, with the Nasdaq gaining 1.4%, the S&P 500 up 0.8% and the Dow rising 0.5% after a volatile...
Anne Applebaum Inspects the Shards of Post-War Order
Anne Applebaum warned that Europe is increasingly hedging against U.S. security and trade dependence as the Russia‑Ukraine war drags into its fifth year. She highlighted the erosion of the post‑World‑II liberal, rules‑based order, noting that terms like “liberal world order”...
June Fed Rate‑cut Odds Drop to 28% After Iran Tensions
A different cut of the same idea, using options prices that reference 3-month SOFR via the Atlanta Fed's tracker In the one week between Feb. 27 (the day before the first strikes on Iran) and Mar. 6, the probability of at...
The Iran Energy Shock Reverberates Across Financial Markets
The outbreak of war involving Iran has triggered a sharp contraction in oil output and transit, pushing global energy prices up by over 15 percent. The surge in energy costs is reigniting inflation expectations worldwide, prompting traders to anticipate more...
Patience Saves; Oil Slides Amid Trump Hormuz Threat
I am glad that I have remained patient so far. If you had jumped the bandwagon on oil this morning, you would have been 20% down ish by now. I know the below is not a guarantee, but I stick...
Hormuz Shipping Slowdown Spurs Port Congestion From India to Singapore
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly stalled, with crossings dropping 66% and crude‑oil futures briefly spiking above $115 per barrel. The U.S. responded with a $20 billion maritime reinsurance program aimed at protecting vessels and cargo. The slowdown has...
EU Think Tank Warns Market Weaponization Needed to Counter China
Weaponise EU market against China or face manufacturing collapse: official think tank EUISS study urges bloc to “preserve and create technological chokepoints”, diversify markets away from China – in both instances mirroring long-term moves made by Beijing – to give it...
EU Enlargement: What's in It for European Businesses?
EU enlargement commissioner Marta Kos urged European firms to invest in candidate countries, citing past enlargement’s boost to exports, supply chains and GDP. She emphasized reforms—independent courts, anti‑corruption, free media—as prerequisites for safe investment. New research from the Confederation of...
How $4/Gallon Gas Could Take the Economy From a Nearly Complete Stall Into Outright Recession
Gas prices hovering just above $3 per gallon have acted as a modest tailwind for U.S. consumers, but a rise to $4 per gallon would erase that benefit and return to a neutral stance relative to wages. The economy is...
4th Quarter Review: From Momentum to Selectivity
In the fourth quarter of 2025 U.S. markets extended gains while the margin for error narrowed across policy, valuation and data. Artificial‑intelligence demand remained robust, yet investors grew more selective, emphasizing balance‑sheet strength and near‑term cash flow. The Federal Reserve...
Redfin Economists’ Weekly Take: Mortgage Rates Poised For Volatility As Iran Conflict Escalates and Inflation Data Looms
Redfin economists warn that mortgage rates could remain volatile as the Iran‑Israel conflict drives oil prices toward levels last seen during the Ukraine war and fresh inflation data arrives. February core CPI is projected to rise 0.2% month‑over‑month, while the...
Tariff Uncertainty Expected to Weigh on U.S. Container Imports in First Half of 2026, NRF Says
The National Retail Federation’s Global Port Tracker projects U.S. container imports will stay below last‑year levels through the first half of 2026 due to lingering tariff uncertainty and geopolitical risk. After the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs, the Trump...
Kazakhstan’s Pragmatic Foreign Policy Faces Uncertainty Amid Attacks Across the Middle East
Kazakhstan’s President Kassym‑Jomart Tokayev has steered a pragmatic foreign policy through the recent wave of missile and drone attacks across the Middle East, opting for neutrality while maintaining diplomatic channels with Iran, Israel, Gulf states and the United States. He...
Brazil's Market Near Historic Lows, Poised for Capital Influx
Brazil’s CAPE ratio is approaching one of the most undervalued levels in its history. The Brazilian equity market is nearly as cheap as it was at major historical bottoms — the early 2000s and the political crisis of 2015–16. This is a...
The US’s Critical Minerals Club Threatens an Equitable Clean Energy Transition
The United States is forming a critical‑minerals trading bloc aimed at breaking China’s dominance in supply chains for digital and defense technologies. The initiative downplays clean‑energy needs, even though analysis shows only a handful of the 33 minerals the UK...
Kwasi Kwarteng: Labour ‘at Risk’ without More Tax Rises Amid Bond Jitters
Former chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng warned that the UK may need to introduce tax hikes as early as November to fund energy subsidies amid soaring oil prices and a sudden spike in government bond yields. He likened the current market turbulence...
Polish Central Bank Gold Buys Likely Fund Wartime Plans
I've just done a deep dive on how the Polish central bank's gold purchases may have been intended for wartime financing from day one. When you look at promo NBP materials, the dog whistles were pretty brazen in retrospect. That...
Iran Conflict Accelerates Shift to Electricity, Threatening Oil
How the Iran War Will Kill Oil and Gas O&G now have a competitor: electricity. High prices + volatility encourage consumers to buy check out the competition. Especially in the Global South. Buckle up, Canada. MarkJCarney #cdnpoli #abpoli #bcpoli https://youtu.be/dDbCM-M2UWA
The Iran Crisis and the BRICS Dilemma
The Iran‑U.S. conflict is spilling into the Gulf, forcing BRICS to confront its first major geopolitical test since the 2024 expansion. While Russia and China back Tehran’s strategic autonomy, India adopts a cautious stance to protect its Chabahar‑linked trade interests....
No, Turkey Is Not the New Iran
Israeli officials and U.S. think tanks are warning that Turkey could become a strategic rival comparable to Iran, citing President Erdogan’s authoritarian turn and regional ambitions. The article argues the "new Iran" label is misleading because Turkey lacks Iran’s ideological...
Higher Oil Prices Just Shift Relative Prices, Not Inflation
My take on the effect that increasing oil prices have on inflation: "There is a lot of narrative being spun in the newspapers saying that oil price increases will cause inflation. No. It simply means that the price of oil will...
First Closure Hard, Repeated Closures Become Effortlessly Easy
Shutting down Hormuz the first time is like withdrawing from a golf tournament the first time. The second time becomes soooo much easier and will happen with much less provocation.
Gold Price Fades on Inflation Concerns, Silver Price Rebounds
Gold slipped to about $5,015 an ounce on Monday, a 3% intraday drop, before regaining most of the loss, as a stronger U.S. dollar and inflation‑driven rate worries kept investors on the sidelines. Silver, by contrast, rose over 2% to...
Maritime Dominance Requires More than Shipyards: Chokepoints, Navies, Finance
President Trump’s push for “America’s Maritime Dominance” aims to break China’s grip on global shipbuilding. But shipyards are only one piece of maritime power. Th real contest runs through chokepoints, naval force, commercial fleets, and the insurance and financial systems...
Iranian Leaders Grasp U.S. Politics Better Than Vice Versa
Whether these arguments from the Iranian Foreign Minister are sincere or not, Iranian leaders seem to understand U.S. politics far better than American leaders understand Iranian politics.
Tariffs Incrementally Push Retail Prices Higher in 2025
"The Slow Climb: How Tariffs Gradually Raised Retail Prices in 2025" via @federalreserve https://t.co/HJiDIY3j8v "consumers are in fact paying higher retail prices because of tariffs" 😮 https://t.co/SbgM6kbcPA
Trump’s Iran War Comment Sends WTI Below $90
WTI crude oil fell below $90 per barrel after President Donald Trump told CBS that the Iran war is “very complete, pretty much.” Earlier in the day, WTI had surged to a peak of $119. https://t.co/ElHrOuNRmc
2026 Risk Assets Outlook: Bonds, China Stocks Shine
OUT NOW - Michael Howell @crossbordercap on: - why he expects 2026 to be bad for risk assets - why he's bullish bonds & Chinese stocks - Gold, Bitcoin, & yield curve, and "Turbulence" phase of Liquidity cycle Apple🔊https://t.co/7bjoJLeYdJ Spotify📽️https://t.co/plpNPVQicu https://t.co/1mD9VJPm5e
Oil Plunges $30 on Trump’s Iran War Comment
The oil market thinks Trump just TACO’d (I’m less convinced, but let’s see) A $30 price swing in a day, helped by expectations of a big strategic oil stock release. Such larks. Oil tumbles to $90 as Trump says Iran war...
Oil Prices Held by Hormuz Tanker Standstill Risk Premium
The oil price isn't one of those things that spirals infinitely up. At current levels near $100, a big risk premium prices the temporary standstill of tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. You can bet Trump is working like crazy...
Markets Doubt US-Iran Conflict's End Amid War Debate
The betting market remains skeptical about the end date to the US-Iran conflict being in sight. Interesting that he is calling it an outright 'war'. Executive branch doesn't have the power to declare war. https://t.co/cUBtf0lV7M
Italy’s Giorgetti Warns ECB Against Hasty Rate Hikes
Italy’s Giorgetti cautions the ECB against the temptation of raising interest rates https://t.co/CasNsOy0KU via @Alemrome https://t.co/z3ATeFnSqp
Bad News Signals Market Bottom Amid K‑Shape Divide
🆓 Monday links: bottoming on bad news, the K-shaped economy, and the rise of GDP jamming. https://t.co/W6jd47jqkH chart: https://t.co/sRyFpUbgLf https://t.co/oOvSgydCoj
Rising Oil Prices Threaten U.S. Recession Amid Middle East Conflict
Surging oil prices have sparked fears that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could inflict steep financial costs on Americans "I am very concerned this could tip us into a recession if it persists," one economist tells @nytimes https://t.co/VkqGBNMgAR @TonyRomm...
Japan Weighs IEA Oil Release Amid Middle East Turmoil
Very good discussion with Japan's Minister of Economy, Trade & Industry Ryosei Akazawa @ryosei_akazawa about recent developments in the Middle East and the implications for Japan's energy security We discussed the available options, including a possible @IEA stock release https://t.co/rCnXYDGIHK
Constructive Talk with India's Energy Minister on Market Stability
Very constructive meeting with India's Minister for Petroleum & Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri @HardeepSPuri We discussed the latest developments in energy markets amid the conflict in the Middle East and the options on the table. We agreed to continue to...
Putin Urges Russia to Capitalize on Soaring Oil Prices
Putin says Russia should take advantage of the sky-high oil prices after US-Israeli attacks on Iran. Russia should redirect supplies to Europe elsewhere, he adds. “If we shift our focus right now to the markets that need more supplies, we might...
Yield Curve Decoupled, Then Flattened After 10‑year Spike
Curve shape (white) was completely uncorrelated with level of rates through first week of Iran conflict. That trend changed overnight when 10s peaked ~4.20%. Since then, have seen notable flattening. 1/ https://t.co/zHYcDKsXG6