Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
India's 20 Years of GDP Misestimation: New Evidence
A new working paper reveals that India’s GDP figures have been systematically misestimated over the past two decades. Growth from 2005 to 2011 was likely understated by roughly 1–1.5 percentage points, while the 2012‑2023 period appears overstated by about 1.5‑2 points. The authors attribute the bias to two methodological flaws: using the formal sector as a proxy for the informal economy and relying on commodity‑price‑based deflators. Revised calculations released in February 2026 aim to correct these distortions.
AI, India, and the Future of Service-Led Growth
Raghuram Rajan argues that India’s service‑led growth model—built on software, consulting and urban services—remains resilient despite AI’s rise. He explains how services have become embedded in tradable goods, turning back‑office functions into Global Capability Centres that command a strong cost...
Top Links 1037 How Bad Is a Closure of the Straits? Revisiting THAT Summers Chart! The Brits and Dubai &...
Recent surveys reveal a majority of fund managers believe US technology companies are overinvesting in artificial intelligence. Analysts point to soaring R&D budgets and hiring spikes that outpace clear revenue prospects. The sentiment reflects growing skepticism that AI hype translates...
Oil Surged Past $100 Before Coming Back to Earth. Wall Street Is Bracing for What Comes Next.
Oil prices surged past the $100‑a‑barrel benchmark over the weekend as tensions escalated in Iran, prompting panic across markets. G7 nations quickly pledged to tap strategic reserves and President Trump’s reassurance helped pull prices back, allowing major indexes to close...
Iran War Will Increase Inflation and Unemployment
The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has revised its UK economic outlook, cutting 2026 GDP growth to 1% and flagging higher inflation and unemployment due to the escalating Iran conflict. Inflation is projected to rise to 2.7% before easing to...
Market Spinning After 'Most Epic Price Reversal in Oil History'
Oil prices surged past $100 per barrel before reversing sharply, marking what analysts call the most epic price reversal in oil history. The swing was driven by mixed signals about the U.S.–Iran conflict, including President Trump's comments and hopes of...
US Designation of Afghanistan 'Regrettable,' Afghan Taliban Says
On March 10, 2026, the United States designated Afghanistan as a “state sponsor of wrongful detention,” demanding the release of two American citizens, Mahmood Habibi and Dennis Coyle. Afghan Taliban officials condemned the move as regrettable and urged a diplomatic solution through...
The Housing Market Freezes as Americans Brace for War
The On The Market podcast highlighted how the emerging Iran‑Russia conflict is injecting fresh uncertainty into the U.S. housing market, prompting buyers and sellers to pause amid rising oil prices and potential rate hikes. Transaction volume has slipped to under...
Denis Beau: Economic Developments in France and the Euro Area
Denis Beau highlighted that France and the euro area have remained surprisingly resilient despite a cascade of shocks, including the Covid‑19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and heightened trade tensions. Inflation has dropped sharply, reaching 1.7 % in January and nearing...
Michele Bullock: Listening to Australians, Interpreting the Data and Setting Monetary Policy
Michele Bullock, the Reserve Bank of Australia governor, outlined why the Board unanimously raised the cash rate in February. She highlighted that inflationary pressures have intensified since mid‑2022, driven by capacity constraints and a still‑tight labour market. Underlying price growth...
Sarah Hunter: Recent Refinements to the Dual Mandate and Navigating Back to Target
Sarah Hunter, speaking at a Norway conference, outlined the outcomes of the 2022‑23 Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) review and the subsequent refinements to its dual mandate. The review praised three decades of strong economic performance under flexible inflation targeting...
Hormuz Has Exposed Shipping’s New Visibility Divide
The recent missile and drone attacks in the Strait of Hormuz exposed a stark visibility divide in maritime logistics. While insurers pulled war‑risk coverage and AIS signals were jammed, some operators leveraged digital twins and scenario modelling to reroute traffic...
Markets Showing Immutable Laws in Action on Iran, Says BlackRock's Wei Li
BlackRock chief global investment strategist Wei Li argued that the market’s reaction to the Iran war illustrates enduring financial principles rather than a blanket risk‑off shift. Oil prices surged roughly 8% as the conflict escalated, pushing U.S. Treasury yields up...
Export Routes Matter More than Production Amid US‑Iran War
As the US-Iran war goes on, focus on oil flow and not on oil production: What matters now is exports ex Strait of Hormuz, not well head output in KSA, UAE, Iraq, Qatar and Iraq. Yes, later is deteriorating, but former...
Lotus to Leverage Reduced EV Import Tariffs in Canada
Geely‑owned Lotus will become the first Chinese electric‑vehicle brand to sell in Canada under a newly reduced import tariff of 6.1 %, as announced by CEO Feng Qingfeng. The Canadian government will issue up to 24,500 permits per six‑month period, cutting...
Iran War Could Knock UK Homebuyer Confidence, Says Builder Persimmon
Persimmon warned that the escalating conflict with Iran could erode UK home‑buyer confidence, adding pressure to an already fragile mortgage market. The builder still expects to complete 12,000‑12,500 homes in 2026, a modest rise on 2025, and reported a 9%...
Ryozo Himino: Japan's Economy and Monetary Policy
Ryozo Himino delivered a speech in Wakayama outlining Japan’s macro‑economic landscape through a detailed AD‑AS diagram. He organized endogenous variables in a circular layout, positioning stable exogenous factors at the core and short‑lived variables on the periphery. The presentation linked...
Chiara Scotti: Programme for Strengthening the Central Bank Capacities in the Western Balkans with a View to the Integration to...
The European System of Central Banks has launched Phase III of an EU‑financed technical cooperation programme to strengthen central bank capacities in the Western Balkans. Hosted by Banca d’Italia, the initiative builds on two successful phases that delivered training, internships and...
Iran Conflict Sparks Volatile WTI Oil Prices
𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗜𝘀 𝗛𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗼 𝗢𝗶𝗹 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀? West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) has recently shown erratic price movements following the military conflict involving Iran. Oil has long been a critical commodity supplied by the Middle East. Because of the geopolitical tensions that...
State Bank of India Shuns Russian Crude Oil Payments Despite US Reprieve
State Bank of India (SBI) has refused to process payments for Russian crude oil even after the United States issued a temporary waiver for Indian imports. The bank cites uncertainty over the waiver's duration, potential sanctions exposure, and reputational risk...
Buckle Up
In this episode of Reuters Morning Bid, Amanda Cooper and Mike Dolan dissect the wild swings in oil prices after former President Trump hinted the Iran conflict could end soon, noting crude jumped $30‑$25 per barrel in a day before...
RBZ Gold Stockpile Grows 250% as Mineral Royalties and Export Proceeds Boost National Buffers
The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) boosted its gold holdings by roughly 250%, rising from 1.5 tonnes in April 2024 to 4.03 tonnes by December 2025. This surge helped lift total foreign‑currency reserves from US$276 million to about US$1.2 billion, expanding import‑cover from 0.18 to 1.5 months....
Govt Eases FDI Norms for China, Other Countries Sharing Land Border with India: Sources
India has amended Press Note 3, easing foreign‑investment rules for all nations sharing a land border, including China. The change removes the mandatory pre‑approval requirement for investments from companies with shareholders in these countries, though approval remains required for any sector....
China’s Energy Defences Ease Sting of Iran War Instability
China is strengthening its energy security framework to offset volatility caused by the Iran‑related conflict. The government has expanded strategic petroleum reserves, accelerated domestic renewable projects, and secured new long‑term contracts with alternative suppliers. These moves aim to insulate the...
Hormuz Closure Sends Bunker Prices to Record Levels
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran‑US/Israeli conflict has driven bunker fuel prices to record highs, with IFO 380 averaging $841.50 per tonne globally and Singapore reaching $1,073. At least 20% of the world’s HSFO exports are now...
E-Way Bills Point to Slower yet Robust Economic Activity in February
India's e‑way bill generation slipped 3.1% in February to 132.5 million, yet it remains the third‑highest monthly total on record, signalling sustained logistics activity. Analysts attribute the dip to February’s shorter calendar and seasonal softening after a strong January, not a...
Germany's Surplus Grows as Domestic Demand Slumps
Good Morning from Germany, where the trade surplus widened to €21bn in January, up from €17.4bn the prev month; the highest level since the summer of 2024. However, this does not signal a revival of Germany’s export model. Exports fell by...
Ocean Network Express Operational Updates for Middle East
Ocean Network Express (ONE) announced immediate operational adjustments across multiple routes as the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed due to escalating security challenges in the Middle East. The carrier is deploying alternative routings to keep vessels moving while safeguarding crews,...
China’s Nudge, a U.S. Permission, an Iranian Rapprochement — India’s Balancing Act on an Economic Thread
India is walking a diplomatic tightrope as escalating Iran‑U.S. tensions threaten its oil supplies while it seeks to preserve economic stability. Beijing has called for deeper BRICS coordination, but New Delhi has remained silent on the Iranian attack, emphasizing dialogue...
China Prioritizes Iran's Energy Over Regime Politics
This is perhaps the best analysis I’ve seen so far offering an onshore Chinese perspective on Iran and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. “China’s disillusionment with Iran’s leaders means that Beijing is not inherently opposed to regime change. Because...
Asian Shares Surge, Echoing Rally on Wall Street as Oil Prices Sink Back to About $90
Asian equities rebounded sharply on Tuesday as oil prices retreated from a peak near $120 to around $90 a barrel, easing geopolitical risk concerns. President Donald Trump’s remarks that the Iran‑related conflict was “very complete” further calmed markets. Japan’s revised...
Iran Strikes Push Oil Higher and Raise Inflation Risks - Weekly Roundup: 10 March
Oil prices surged past $100 a barrel after US and Israeli strikes on Iran, reviving inflation concerns and prompting analysts to warn of a dual recession‑inflation risk. Meanwhile, Swift is launching a new cross‑border retail payments framework to improve speed...
Supply Shock Forces Demand Destruction, Remote Work Encouraged
Hello from Hanoi where the energy and supply shock from the war is hitting it here. The government wants people to use less fuel for transport by working from home. When there’s a supply shock & u can’t increase it...
Bypasses and SPR only Buy Time; only Hormuz Reopening Solves
Oil bypass pipelines buy time, but don't solve the problem. SPR/IEA release would buy more time, but doesn't solve either. Ultimately, only one thing solves the problem: re-open the Strait of Hormuz. But rather than hitting the wall this...
Next Steps for Rasht-Astara Line to Be Taken Next Month?
Russia and Iran will sign off the 164‑km Rasht‑Astara railway line on April 1, 2026, a cornerstone of the International North‑South Transport Corridor (INSTC). The €1.6 billion project, jointly funded by Moscow and Tehran, aims to streamline cargo flow from India...
Middle East Strikes and Oil Surge Amplify Global Risks
As strikes shake the Middle East and oil prices soar, what are the global ramifications of the US and Israel’s conflict with Iran? 🎥 Tune in LIVE as @TimOBrien discusses with @JavierBlas and @MarcChampion1 Tuesday, March 10 @ 8:30 am EDT...
Trump Vows ‘Death, Fire, Fury’ over Hormuz Closure
Trump threatens ‘Death, Fire and Fury’ if Iran closes Strait of Hormuz The US President claims the war on Iran is "very complete" but also hasn’t ruled out taking over the Strait https://t.co/xy4DfQoYYm
European Markets Head for Positive Open as Oil Prices Slide
European stock futures surged 1‑2% on Tuesday as oil prices retreated after President Trump suggested possible action to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. Brent crude slipped 6.8% to $92.25 per barrel, easing pressure on energy‑sensitive equities. The rally could...
Iceland and Norway React as Trump Eyes Greenland
As Trump has been screaming into the void about acquiring Greenland, the wheels over in #Iceland and #Norway are starting to turn. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/wGaex4mPph #eu #europeanunion #geopolitics https://t.co/7SEnZinGjq
US Retail Container Imports Set to Decline Amid Tariff Uncertainty
U.S.-bound retail container import volumes are expected to see annual declines over the first half of the year, due to ongoing tariff-driven uncertainty & potentially the Iran conflict according to the latest Global Port Tracker report. https://t.co/hASNRjFabC
Petronet LNG, GAIL, Indraprastha, MGL, ATGL Gain up to 6% as Trump’s Iran War Remarks Lift Market Sentiment
Shares of Indian gas distributors surged after President Donald Trump suggested the Iran war could end soon, easing fears of prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Petronet LNG jumped nearly 5% to ₹292.30, GAIL rose 2% to ₹152.50, and Indraprastha Gas...
US Policies Drive Europe Toward Cheaper Chinese Imports
The shock is coming from the United States, whose actions continually raise of the cost of living / cost of business for Europe. It should be no surprise that this results in increased imports from a supplier who offers cost...
Hormuz Closure Could Push Oil Past $200
HOW OIL COULD SURGE TO $200 AND BEYOND @tracyalloway and I talk with @Rory_Johnston -- typically one of the least-alarmist people in oil -- about how the longer the Straight of Hormuz is shut, the greater the likelihood of an...
World Leaders Scramble to Buffer Economies From War
Global leaders race to shield their economies from war shocks https://t.co/i7GALZxtxQ via @endacurran @jdorosario @DanielPFlatley https://t.co/LHSlsEyQV6
China’s Early‑year Exports Jump 22%, EU and SE Asia Lead
China’s exports increased 21.8% year on year in dollar terms in January and February mainly due to shipments to south-east Asia, which increased 29.4%, and to the EU, up 27.8%. Exports to the US fell 11% while imports from the...
China's Economic Surplus Outpaces Global GDP Share
One of my better charts -- shows China's surplus relative to global GDP. Has had a big impact I think ... https://t.co/xkL0hjBjP1
UK’s Gas Dependence Leaves Households Facing 60% Bill Surge
Britain is more exposed than other European economies to the latest movements in energy markets due to greater reliance on natural gas. Households are also in a fragile position as energy bills are still 60% higher than before Russia’s full-scale...
G7 Energy Ministers to Discuss Oil, LNG Amid SPR Debate
G7 energy ministers are scheduled to hold a video call (involving the IEA too) today to discuss the oil and LNG markets. Yesterday, G7 finance ministers flagged a potential use of the oil SPR. Japan and several other north East...
Europe's Energy Weakness Undermines Euro Compared to Peers
Europe's energy vulnerability is contributing to the euro having a worse war than its peers, writes @marcusashworth https://t.co/D2PXb56w3z via @opinion https://t.co/aIh2l1QXUy
Trump, Putin Discuss War, Peace Amid U.S. Sanction Review
Trump, Putin talk of war and peace as US weighs easing Russian oil sanctions https://t.co/XxiEKNK66b