Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
2026 Canadian Trade & Customs Outlook: Trade Remedies
Baker McKenzie highlights a sweeping overhaul of Canada’s trade‑remedies regime, with the CBSA making annual administrative reviews the default for updating normal values, export prices and subsidy amounts. The agency recorded a near‑record number of anti‑dumping and countervailing duty investigations in 2025, adding new product categories such as forged grinding media and oil‑and‑gas well casing. A CAD 617.7 million budget over five years will fund heightened enforcement, especially to protect the steel sector from U.S. Section 232‑related diversion. Importers and exporters must adapt to expanded subject goods, tighter procedural rules, and limited judicial review options.
Nintendo Sues US Government over Donald Trump's Illegal Tariffs
Nintendo has filed a lawsuit against the United States government alleging that tariffs imposed under former President Donald Trump's executive orders violate the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The complaint, lodged in the United States Court of International Trade,...
Alaska North Slope Crude Hits Record High: Correction
Delivered prices for medium sour Alaska North Slope (ANS) crude hit a record high on Thursday, trading around an $8.30 per barrel premium to July Ice Brent, the highest since Argus began tracking in January 2018. Purchases by South Korean...
Did Trump Force China's Hand? Beijing Nears 500-Jet Boeing Deal Ahead Of Xi Summit
Boeing is reportedly close to securing a record 500‑plane order from China, primarily 737 Max jets, with an additional 100 wide‑body aircraft under discussion. Sources say the deal could be unveiled during President Trump’s Beijing visit from March 31 to...
France & Western Europe Are Collapsing: Conversations for Rebuilding
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio described Europe as America’s cultural "child," sparking a series of candid discussions in Paris about France’s perceived decline. French intellectuals and policymakers voiced deep pessimism over migration, identity, and stagnant economics, echoing Rubio’s critique...
Gemini Suspends, Revamps Middle East Services Amid Growing Conflict
Gemini Cooperation announced the suspension of several Middle East services, including routes to Europe and Asia, as well as regional shuttle operations, citing the escalating war in the Gulf. The alliance, which includes Maersk and Hapag‑Lloyd, is launching a new...
Weekend Risk Fears May Trigger Volatility Crush, Buying GDX, SLV
I think this should be getting more attention. Everything is about the rate of change. While I don't think this war 'goes away' soon, I wonder if today's sell off is people afraid of holding risk into a weekend due...
Weak Jobs Data Drives Mortgage Rates Downward
Another horrendous jobs report saved mortgage rates today. Had it come in hot, we'd likely have a 30-year fixed closer to 6.25% again during peak home buying season. Granted, w/o the conflict in Iran we'd probably be at 5.875% or lower...
Fed's Hammack: Dollar Dominance Remains Intact as Fed Stays Patient
Federal Reserve President Christopher Hammack warned that inflation remains too high and broadly based, signaling that the central bank will likely keep interest rates on hold for an extended period. He reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to its inflation mandate while...
February Logistics Manager’s Index Heads up to 61.5 as Lean Inventories Tighten Transportation Capacity and Push up Freight Rates
The Logistics Manager’s Index rose to 61.5 in February, the strongest reading since February 2025 and above the long‑term average of 61.3. Inventory levels slipped to 53.8 while inventory cost pressure eased, yet warehousing utilization accelerated and transportation prices jumped...
SPX Closes Weekly Sell‑off, Bearish Outlook Persists
SPX ( US500 ) Sells closed fully today to end the week. Although we still remain bearish on SPX , especially after today's "too bad" US jobs data but we also have to understand that indices can see sharp pullbacks on...
Gold Bulls Near Perfect Fundamentals; Dip Likely Brief
Perfect fundamental picture is almost set for Gold bulls Although if a Geopolitical de-escalation happens , it can cause a dip ( but very likely it will be quickly bought ) It's about time now only
China Really Thinks It Is Just Defending Itself
China’s Communist Party frames its far‑reaching global actions as defensive, even as it expands military capabilities, maritime claims and economic influence. This self‑perception stems from a blend of historic victimhood and a belief in inherent peacefulness, which turns defensive intent...
Rising $100 Oil Prices May Dampen Middle East Conflict
With Oil prices nearing $100 already , risks of a potential de-escalation keep on rising. I may be wrong , maybe oil prices will remain elevated for months , who knows , I am just saying what has the higher probability...
Oil Spikes 43% in Two Months, Trump Eyes Hormuz
BTW, oil rallied an additional 43% over the next 2 months. Trump will do everything he can to open the strait of Hormuz and prevent a similar outcome. As I noted in an earlier post this week, I expect it...
South Korea and the Philippines Expand Ties in Nuclear Energy and Critical Minerals
South Korean President Lee Jae‑myung visited the Philippines on March 3‑4, 2026, marking the 77th anniversary of diplomatic ties and signing ten memoranda of understanding across AI, cybersecurity, defense, and energy. The two leaders pledged deeper cooperation on critical minerals, leveraging...
Investors Fear Missing Post‑War Rally More Than Downside
An interesting feature of this market, similar to what @kevinmuir has pointed out ... Is that most of my clients are less worried about the downside in stocks and EMFX ... and more worried about missing the rip when the...
Market Turmoil Is Hitting Most Traditional Safe Havens. UBS Says This Is the Place to Hide
Geopolitical tensions between the U.S., Israel and Iran have rattled traditional safe‑haven assets, with gold and consumer staples slipping as oil prices breach $100 per barrel. UBS recommends pharmaceutical stocks as the new defensive refuge, citing their inverse link to...
ECB Schnabel: ECB Is Still in a Good Place, but War Increases Upside Inflation Risks
ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said the central bank’s policy stance remains appropriate despite a temporary inflation overshoot, provided expectations stay anchored. She highlighted that inflation is projected to meet the 2% target over the medium term, reinforcing a...
Isabel Schnabel: Navigating Inflation and Employment in an Era of Supply Shocks and AI
In a March 2026 speech, ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel argued that, despite calls for a dual mandate, single‑mandate and dual‑mandate central banks usually adopt similar policy actions because price stability constrains any employment‑focused easing. She highlighted that more...
Wavelength Podcast: Episode 100. War Risk, Rates and Bad Planning?
Episode 100 of TradeWinds' Wavelength podcast examines the shipping fallout from the US‑Israel attacks on Iran and the broader Operation Epic Fury. It details how the conflict has driven VLCC day rates toward record levels and sparked debate over war‑risk insurance coverage in...
U.S. Economy Loses 92,000 Jobs in February
The U.S. labor market contracted in February as nonfarm payrolls dropped by 92,000, marking the second‑largest monthly loss since early 2025. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% and the labor‑force participation rate fell to 62.0%, the lowest level since...
Global LPG Conversations: Middle East War Hits Global LPG Markets
The episode examines the immediate impact of the Middle East war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on global LPG markets, focusing on sharp price spikes in Asia's forward curve, especially the August Faris Index, which jumped 24%...
DeepMind's AGI Economics Role Challenges Traditional Growth Paradigms
To all my Economics / Wellbeing / Happiness / Flourishing expert friends, what are your thoughts on GoogleDeep Mind's search for a "Director, AGI Economics?" This is from the Job Application: "Artificial Intelligence could be one of humanity’s most useful...
ADNOC CEO Meets Japan PM Takaichi as Strait of Hormuz Tensions Mount
ADNOC CEO Sultan Al Jaber met Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in Tokyo as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalated, emphasizing energy security and confirming that the Ruwais LNG export facility remains on schedule. He reassured that construction has not...
A Brutal Jobs Report
The latest BLS jobs report showed U.S. employment contracting by 92,000 jobs in February, with a further 69,000‑job downgrade for December and January, pushing the unemployment rate to 4.4%. Over the past 12 months, employers added just 156,000 jobs—far below...
UAE Tug Loss Raises Maritime Death Toll to 11
This appears to be the UAE tug Mussafah 2. Reports are that all eight crewmembers have been lost. The tug was responding to the containership Safeen Prestige which was in distress after being attacked by Iran. This...
Trucking Jobs Post Slight Decline in Unexpected Total Payroll Drop
The February nonfarm payroll report showed an unexpected 92,000‑job decline, with truck transportation employment slipping by 500 to 1,462,500 positions. This marks a 22,100‑job shortfall compared with a year earlier and a net loss of 4,700 jobs since December. Warehouse...
US Wins Over Iran, Reshapes Global Oil Power
"U.S. Success Against Iran Could Be a Game Changer for World Oil Security," @WSJ https://t.co/ICXqOkIlg2 If Iran, along with Venezuela, is soon ruled by a regime friendly or at least not hostile toward the U.S., that would neutralize two oil exporters...
Job Data Flips: Expected Gains Turn Into Losses
if you expected a gain of 55K jobs and the economy instead lost 92K and you thought two months ago the economy gained 48K jobs, but it turns out it lost 17K i mean what are we even doing here
Iran War's Ripple Effect on Economy and Markets
Great to have @Seawolfcap back for this week's "FND" on our WAWD @Substack. We discuss the impact of the war in Iran on the economy & markets & share some thoughts on $CVNA $AXP $APO #GOLD #ENERGY $RVI #privatecredit #AI...
Gas Prices Rise 27 Cents, War Hits Wallet
Since last week, average US gasoline prices are up 27 cents to $3.25 per gallon. WAR = COSTS AMERICANS AN ARM AND A LEG. https://t.co/2wqMMXwNZP
Asian Unemployment Surpasses Overall Rate in February
Outside of a handful of months in 2020 the Asian unemployment rate has been below the overall unemployment rate for the entirety of the last 20 years, but it popped above in February: https://t.co/i10DDosA0u
China Funds 168 Ports, Reshaping Global Trade
China providing money to 168 ports in 90 countries. Add the very large Chinese Cosco shipping firm. China and control of global trade and international logistics. The silent trade war.
Gold Positioning Flushed; Long GLD and GDX
New @ForwardGuidance chartbook just dropped for this week's episode. Wanted to call out a few we did not discuss live on the pod. Takeaway: Gold positioning length has been absolutely flushed (and these charts are few days old, before the recent...
China Halts Fuel Exports as Oil Shock Spikes Prices
Bracing for an oil shock, China ordered refiners to halt new diesel and gasoline export contracts and cancel existing shipments. From a week ago, their diesel prices are up 13.5%, gasoline up 11%. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = COLLATERAL DAMAGE =...
Policy Choices Cost US Rare Earths Dominance
The backstory on exactly how the US ceded its rare earths/critical minerals dominance is here --> https://t.co/m6IQmzrJHT
China's Anger Grows as Oil Spikes, Summit Uncertain
Grumbling out of China is getting louder as crude pushes higher....... I am leaning now 50/50 that the meeting with XI and Trump even happens now. Hope I am wrong because would like to see it. Time will...
Equities Show Less Volatility Than Commodities
Certainly less of a "shit yourself due to volatility" vibe to the equity basket than the commodity so far. https://t.co/jjg4da39Sf
Gulf Nations Reassess US Deals Amid Israel‑Iran Conflict
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar are reviewing US contracts and future investment commitments. The US-Israeli war on Iran is putting investments at risk. WAR = COLLATERAL DAMAGE AND COSTS. https://t.co/YXzBzPwL7O
Market Ignoring Looming Risks as SPY Nears Peak
SPY is 2.4% from its all-time high. In the middle of a war. With oil spiking. With yields surging. The market hasn't priced in the worst case. It hasn't even priced in the base case. That's the scariest part. https://t.co/d7MxjrSyrG
Hedge Funds Stay Growth‑Focused as AI Tools Gain Traction
𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐤: Fresh launches, team moves are keeping hedge funds in growth mode, while Middle East tensions prompt firms in the Gulf to review near-term plans and continuity playbooks. Meanwhile, AI agent workflows are moving from buzzword to toolkit https://t.co/jiiupziBYa
War Costs Explode: Iraq $8 Trillion, Iran Ahead
Remember the Iraq war? It was supposed to be a cake walk that would cost US taxpayers a mere $50 billion. IT ACTUALLY COST $8 TRILLION. The US taxpayer will face sticker shock when the bill for America’s war against Iran arrives. WARS...
Clean Energy Investment Nears Military Spending Threshold, War Delays
One of my predictions in our Climate Brink year end wrapup was that 2026 might be the first year where global clean energy investment exceeds global military spending. Unfortunately with recent wars we will likely have to wait a few more...
Iran Conflict May Prompt US to Lift Russian Oil Sanctions
My friend & oil expert Javier Blas reports just what I’ve been anticipating: that the US-Israeli war on Iran would force the US to lift sanctions on Russian oil. https://t.co/4VIvPSwm63
Fed Rate Cuts Ahead Spark Explosive Metals Rally
Metals and miners have recently pulled back as investors suddenly think the Fed won’t be as dovish. Wait until they realize the policymakers are cornered into cutting rates regardless of inflation accelerating, just to keep the government’s debt affordable. That’s an explosive...
Yen Poised to Gain Whether War Eases or Escalates
Yen could be setting up for a win-win type environment. 1. War deescalates, oil down, dollar down. 2. War escalates and everything goes to shit, capital flight from US assets, flight to Yen safe haven. It's interesting to me because there's a...
DXY Near Peak as Metals Rise, USD Fundamentals Falter
Was looking for this dollar rally upon Iran invasion but now it is at a critical juncture. Metals showing life could be signal that this is about as high as DXY gets. Despite this squeeze higher, fundamentals for USD and...
Inflation and Job Loss Cripple 2026 Real Estate
Surging inflation and sagging employment double whammy for the fragile real estate market in 2026 https://t.co/4yrdR28tG3
Kashy
Chicago Booth's Anil Kashyap re:Fed's Mary Daly&Anna Paulson: "If there's anybody from the WH here, I think you should have confidence that you have 2 very thoughtful people looking at the numbers...would be a shame if that's not true 2...