Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Japan Seeks Exemption From US Tariff Hike Amid Trade Concerns
Japan has asked the United States to exclude it from a planned tariff hike that would raise duties from 10% to 15%, warning that higher rates could damage its auto sector and jeopardise the $550 billion Strategic Investment Initiative tied to Japanese funding of U.S. projects. The request follows the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to keep tariffs on cars, steel and aluminium, making Japan’s concessions for 2025 fragile. In parallel, India upgraded its FY27 GDP growth outlook to 7‑7.4% on the back of reform momentum and new trade deals, while noting that a prolonged Iran crisis could pressure the rupee, current‑account deficit and inflation. The Indian fiscal plan now targets a 4.3% deficit for FY27.
US Skips Congressional Review to Approve Munitions Sale to Israel
The U.S. State Department approved a $151.8 million foreign military sale to Israel, delivering 12,000 BLU‑110A/B 1,000‑pound bomb bodies, and bypassed the usual congressional review by invoking an emergency authority. Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared an emergency to expedite the...
NVDA Bonus Linked to FY27 Revenue, Buy on Pullbacks
Nvidia ties CEO Huang’s $4M bonus to FY2027 revenue milestones. Macro: AI-driven revenue surge. Key factors: record FY26 sales, China export limits, TSMC shift to Vera Rubin. Risk: geopolitical export curbs. Trading insight: accumulate NVDA on meaningful pullbacks. — Viktor...
Aggressive EV Adopters Cushion Oil Price Shocks; US Lags
Countries that have adopted electric vehicles the most aggressively will suffer the least from oil price spikes. The US, of course, is not one of those. [Corrected graph.] https://t.co/jl1blEELO0
The Iran War and Global Trade: Will the Cape Route Become the New Normal?
Armed attacks on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in early 2026 forced shipping lines to reroute around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope. The Cape route, once a contingency, saw usage surge, echoing past disruptions of the...
US Investors Push Asian Funds to Create Restricted‑tech Vehicles
FT: US investors are increasingly asking Asian fund managers to carve out special vehicles so they can invest in the region without falling foul of American investment restrictions on Chinese technology. https://t.co/BxNIMQgnjK
US Waives Penalty Tariffs, India Keeps Strategic Ambiguity
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: The US reverses course. First, the US placed 25% “penalty tariffs” on India for buying Russian crude. Now, the US has granted a 30-day waiver that will allow India to buy Russian oil. MODI’S STRATEGIC AMBIGUITY REIGNS SUPREME. https://t.co/zWsRpg2QtK
When Neighbours Stop Knocking: The Hidden Impact of Canada’s 2025 Tourism Decline on US Local Labour Markets
In 2025, Canadian tourism to the United States dropped 25% after heightened geopolitical tensions and Trump‑era rhetoric. The decline hit service‑oriented ZIP codes where Canadian visitors comprised at least 1% of foot traffic, leading to a 6% employment contraction in...
Third Inflation Shock May Reset Economic Normal
New at THE OVERSHOOT: If You Thought the Inflation Outlook Was Bad Before... https://t.co/EpRm2cRwzB The big question is whether the latest "shock", which by my count is at least the 3rd in the past 6 years, is enough to recalibrate beliefs about what's...
VIX Spikes Often Precede Stock Rebounds—Still Just Probabilities
The $VIX increased 48% this week, the 21st biggest weekly spike ever. What has happened in the past following the biggest $VIX spikes? Stocks have tended to bounce back with above-average forward returns. Does this always happen? No. There are no certainties in markets,...
Cross-Border Restrictions in the Age of Geopolitical Tensions: What Seven Decades of Data Tell Us
A new study uses large‑language‑model techniques to convert the IMF’s 70‑year AREAER narrative archive into a daily, country‑level dataset of cross‑border financial restrictions (iBoP‑C and iBoP‑S). The high‑frequency indices reveal a stop‑go pattern of financial liberalisation, with advanced economies easing...
China’s Modest Target Risks Stalling Demand Revival
The Economist: “China’s new target is too low. Judging by the country’s recent record, it will set a ceiling on the government’s efforts to revive demand, perpetuating the economy’s biggest problems.” https://t.co/r2SPU7niNb
Fed ‘Utterly Paralyzed’ as Iran Conflict Stokes Stagflation Fears
The Federal Reserve entered 2026 optimistic about a soft landing, but the sudden Iran‑Israel conflict has driven crude above $95 per barrel, pushing gasoline prices to record highs and reviving cost‑push inflation concerns. A weak jobs report further erodes labor‑market...
Putin Benefits as Russia Aids Iran, US Relaxes Sanctions
russia providing iran with targeting assistance against the us military. us reducing sanctions on russian oil export. quite the both/and for putin.
Prolonged Disruption Turns Focus to Inventories
The International Energy Agency’s chief announced that global oil markets are currently well‑supplied, eliminating any immediate need to tap strategic inventories. While some regions continue to experience supply disruptions, the agency sees no justification for coordinated production cuts at this...
Oil Price at Two-Year High After Qatar Warns All Gulf Production Could Stop Within Days
Oil prices surged to a two‑year high after Qatar’s energy minister warned that all Gulf oil and gas exporters could cease production within days amid the escalating Middle‑East conflict. Brent crude rose above $93 a barrel, and the minister suggested...
Inside Trump’s Long-Term Economic Strategy, with EXIM Bank’s John Jovanovic
John Jovanovic, chairman of the U.S. Export‑Import Bank, outlined a long‑term economic agenda that aligns with former President Trump’s focus on export resilience and strategic stockpiles. He detailed Project Vault, a demand‑driven critical‑mineral reserve designed to curb just‑in‑time vulnerabilities. Jovanovic also...
Stocks Sell Off, Yields Rise, Energy Surges on War in Middle East (253)
The Feb. 28 outbreak of war in the Middle East sparked a broad equity sell‑off during the March 2‑6 week, while energy stocks were the only sector to post gains, rising about 1 %. Treasury yields climbed across the curve, except for a...
Peter Conti-Brown on a New Fed-Treasury Accord
In this episode, host David interviews Peter Conti‑Brown about his recent essay outlining three possible reforms to the Fed‑Treasury relationship, focusing on discount‑window liquidity and its stigma. They discuss recent remarks by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman and Treasury Secretary Janet...
US Recycled Plastics Hold Steady Amid Iran War
US recycled plastics markets stayed largely flat this week despite the outbreak of war in the Middle East, as participants adopt a cautious stance amid feedstock and shipping uncertainty. Recycled PET prices were unchanged, while recycled PP rose 1¢/lb and...
Beyond Mining: Oklahoma Bets on Refining to Anchor US Critical Minerals Supply Chain
U.S. critical‑minerals strategy is shifting from mining to processing, and Oklahoma is positioning itself as a domestic hub for refining, smelting and magnet manufacturing. The state is courting major projects, including a $4 billion aluminum smelter by Emirates Global Aluminium at...
Friday Footnotes: What Another War Could Mean for Grains
Angie Setzer, a grain‑market analyst, pivots her column to assess how the latest war could reshape global wheat dynamics. She highlights blind spots in the traditional wheat balance sheet, noting that disrupted Black Sea routes and export restrictions are tightening...
US Weighs Military Powers to Restart Oil Pipeline
The Trump administration is weighing the use of the 1950 Defense Production Act to override a California state court order and restart an offshore oil pipeline serving Sable Offshore. A Justice Department opinion argues the law can preempt state consent...
UK's Starmer Discusses Military, Intelligence Support with Saudi Crown Prince
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer held a phone call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman after Iran’s missile strikes on Saudi Arabia. Starmer confirmed the UK is dispatching additional fighter jets, helicopters and a destroyer to the region and...
EU Countries Joining US, Israel Attacks Would Become Iran's "Legitimate Target", Deputy Minister Says
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht‑Ravanchi warned that any EU nation joining U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran would become a "legitimate target" for Tehran. While France, Greece and Italy have dispatched warships to the region, most EU officials are...
Sinocism Weekly - March 6, 2026
China’s annual Two Sessions opened with Premier Li presenting a modest Government Work Report that trims the GDP growth target to 4.5‑5% and signals limited fiscal stimulus. The report re‑affirms the push for technological self‑reliance and new quality productive forces,...
Diving Headlong Into Catastrophe + Silver Vault Holdings Update
Following the US‑Israel strike on Iran, energy supplies have been sharply curtailed, pushing oil and fertilizer markets into scarcity and igniting a rapid rise in inflation expectations. At the same time, government bond yields have climbed, reflecting investors’ shift to...
Brazilian Steel Slab Exports Double in February
Brazilian steel slab exports more than doubled in February, reaching 835,327 metric tonnes, up 117% year‑over‑year. The United States and the European Union drove the surge, with U.S. shipments rising 54% despite 50% tariffs and EU imports jumping from 50...
Next Week’s Menu: March 7-13, 2026
The upcoming week (March 7‑13, 2026) is packed with macroeconomic releases and policy events. Central banks in Pakistan, Turkey, Peru and Serbia will hold monetary policy reviews, while the United States publishes a full slate of data including quarterly GDP, PCE deflator,...
Falling Mortgage Rates May Boost US Housing, PVC
U.S. mortgage rates slipped below 6% for the first time in over three years, reviving affordability and prompting forecasts of an 8% rise in home sales by 2026. Despite the rate dip, new‑home construction is expected to decline modestly, with...
CMA CGM Preps for Challenging Year After 2025 Revenue, Profit Decline
Container shipping giant CMA CGM warned that its 2025 revenue and profit will fall, signalling a tougher outlook for the sector. The company projects only moderate growth in 2026, with freight rates likely to be influenced by escalating tensions in the...
Fed Faces Dual Threat: Rising Inflation and Unemployment
The Fed’s biggest fear has always been having to choose between fighting inflation and protecting jobs. Friday’s employment report brought that dilemma a step closer. “Let’s not overreact to one month’s numbers, but an environment in which inflation is rising and...
Back‑end Oil Futures Boost Equities Despite Physical Short Squeeze
Andy makes a great point here around potential L/S positioning in the oil and gas space. I think chasing the physical commodities up a tree here is dangerous but I still really like oil and nat gas equities for two...
2026 Canadian Trade & Customs Outlook: Forced Labour
Canada’s forced‑labour import prohibition remains largely unenforced, with the CBSA having detained only one shipment confirmed as forced‑labour since 2021. A private‑member Bill C-251 is advancing, proposing a rebuttable presumption that goods from certain entities are tainted unless proven otherwise....
Diesel Price Spikes Threaten the Global Economy
Oil shocks get headlines. Diesel shocks stop the world Trucks, ships, mines, farms, trains, planes & militaries all run on it Persian Gulf crude is ideal for making it Diesel fuel price hikes are the real killers of the economy #diesel #oilmarkets #energy #Hormuz...
Hormuz Strait Moves 35% of Global Oil Trade
Hormuz carries about one-fifth of global oil supply But roughly one-third of seaborne oil trade normally pass thru the Strait The real shock is 35% of globally traded oil. Peak oil is today’s reality. #oil #energy #Hormuz #geopolitics #EnergyMarkets https://t.co/ENXgbxfCcf
2026 Canadian Trade & Customs Outlook: Trade Remedies
Baker McKenzie highlights a sweeping overhaul of Canada’s trade‑remedies regime, with the CBSA making annual administrative reviews the default for updating normal values, export prices and subsidy amounts. The agency recorded a near‑record number of anti‑dumping and countervailing duty investigations...
WTI Jumps 36%, Second Biggest Weekly Rise in 40 Years
WTI Crude Oil prices spiked 36% this week to $91/barrel. This was the 2nd biggest weekly increase in the last 40 years, trailing only the 2020 Covid rebound after Crude Oil prices crashed to $15/barrel. Roughly 20% of global oil supply passes...
US $20B War‑Risk Backstop Fails to Attract Tankers
US offers a $20B maritime war-risk reinsurance backstop to coax tankers back into the Gulf No one wants it It doesn’t provide shipowners the incentive they need to sail into a war zone. #Hormuz #oilmarkets #shipping #geopolitics
Nintendo Sues US Government over Donald Trump's Illegal Tariffs
Nintendo has filed a lawsuit against the United States government alleging that tariffs imposed under former President Donald Trump's executive orders violate the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The complaint, lodged in the United States Court of International Trade,...
S&P 500 Faces Frequent 1%+ Drops Ahead
The S&P 500 fell 1.3% today, its 5th daily decline so far this year with a loss above 1%. Expect to see many more of these days in the coming weeks/months - the average year since 1928 has 29...
Inflation Measurement Flaws Favor Trump over Biden
There are measurement issues, and they go both ways. But what is really important for this lying hunk of shit is that whatever problems raise the measured rate of inflation now were also there UNDER Biden. Which means Trump got...
Alaska North Slope Crude Hits Record High: Correction
Delivered prices for medium sour Alaska North Slope (ANS) crude hit a record high on Thursday, trading around an $8.30 per barrel premium to July Ice Brent, the highest since Argus began tracking in January 2018. Purchases by South Korean...
Oil Ripping Signals Imminent End of Cycle
It gets harder to do this when oil starts ripping. Has historically been a “the cycle is close to being over” signal
Bolivia's Inflation Soars to 19.6%, Dollarization Needed
Bolivia's inflation remains out of control at 19.56%/yr. That is nearly 4x its August 2024 rate of 5.2%/yr. To kill inflation, Bolivia must dollarize. https://t.co/oK5i4Lims6
2025 Labor Supply Drops Amid Immigration Crackdown
Supply of Labor Fell in 2025 on Immigration Crackdown: Massive Change in Labor Market Dynamics that Explains a Lot. The annual adjustments of the labor force to the new population estimates are in, and they’re revealing https://t.co/MX3qqP698c https://t.co/slvC9NEfqW
Iran Conflict May Trigger 1970s‑style Oil Shock
This may not be WWIII. But it could be the 1930s moment of our era, writes @nfergus He notes, if the Iran war drags on and oil flows break, the shock could rival the 1970s. I'D SAY WE'RE ALREADY THERE WITH...
All‑Sector Slump Hits Jobs, Oil, Credit, AI
So in the same day we got negative data points/price action on: -jobs -oil -private credit -AI capex intentions
Trump's Disapproval Soars on Cost of Living, Tariffs
In the latest Fox News poll TRUMP IS TANKING. His disapproval rating on the cost of living is 67% and 63% disapprove of his tariff policies. THE TARIFF MAN = IN THE TANK. https://t.co/cPG2lx1syb
Indonesia Halts Board of Peace Talks, Calls End Iran War
Indonesia, the world's largest Muslim nation, with a Muslim population of over 240 million, has suspended all discussions on the proposed Board of Peace. Leading Indonesian Muslim groups have called for an exit from the Board and an end to the...