Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Israeli Military Says It Will Pursue Every Successor of Iran’s Khamenei
Israel's military announced it will target any individual involved in appointing a successor to Iran's slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The statement, posted in Farsi on X, underscores Israel's intent to intervene after the U.S. and Israeli strikes that killed Khamenei. The warning coincides with Iran's clerical assembly convening to select a new supreme leader. Reuters reported the development.
Borderlands Mexico: Authorities Move to Cancel Permits for 350 Mexican Steel Importers
Mexican authorities have suspended import activities and begun canceling permits for 350 steel‑importing firms as part of Operation Clean‑Up, a coordinated crackdown on smuggling and misuse of trade programs. The Ministry of Economy flagged these companies among 750 firms suspected...
Oil Prices ‘Could Breach $100 a Barrel Within Days’ Amid Supply Disruption From Iran War
Goldman Sachs warned that global oil prices could breach $100 a barrel within days and climb to $150 by month‑end if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Iran’s effective blockade has cut crude flows through the strait to roughly 10%...
East African Citizens Brace for Hard Times as Gulf War Escalates
East African economies are bracing for fallout from the escalating Gulf conflict after US and Israel attacks on Iran. Brent crude surged past $84 a barrel, pushing fuel costs and inflation higher across the region. Economists warn that higher import...
How Iran-Israel War Reshapes Sudan’s Fragile Frontlines
The Iran‑Israel conflict has forced Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar to divert attention and resources after Iranian missile reprisals, weakening their mediation role in Sudan’s three‑year war. Analysts argue this shift could either spark renewed diplomatic pressure to end...
(Public- No Paywall) Oil Prices Could Rise to Unprecedented Levels- Anas Alhajji On Iran War Economics
Anas Alhajji warns that the escalating Iran war could push oil prices to unprecedented levels, potentially driving Brent above $120 per barrel. He cites a likely sharp reduction in Iranian output and limited OPEC spare capacity as key supply constraints....
Top Market Expert Predicts FIIs Unlikely to Return Anytime Soon After Nearly $2 Billion Selling in March
Foreign institutional investors dumped nearly $2 billion from Indian equities in March, driven by heightened Middle‑East tensions and Brent crude trading above $90 a barrel. The outflows, amounting to roughly Rs 21,829 crore, pushed the Nifty 50 down about 6% year‑to‑date and erased Rs 19 lakh crore...
Video: Oil Price Shock & Silver Exchange Bar Shortage With Bond Selloff
A recent video analysis highlights a sharp oil price shock, driven by escalating Middle‑East tensions, that pushed crude above 10% in a single week. Simultaneously, the market for exchange‑grade silver bars is tightening, with inventories down roughly 15% as industrial...
China Faces Energy Crisis as Gulf Oil Imports Halt
China imports crude oil based on the day, between 65 and 85% of its total, and about three-quarters of that comes specifically from the Persian Gulf. And that has now dropped to zero. Unlike countries like the United States, which...
US Oil Independence Shifts Gains to Industry, Hurts Drivers
“The US is roughly speaking oil independent… on net, we export petroleum products.” That’s why this is less an ‘America is poorer’ story than an ‘Americans reshuffle who wins’ story. Oil industry wins. Drivers lose. https://t.co/Efd22aQEeK
700 Cargoes, $40 Billion, and the Russian Exit Threat: How the Hormuz Shock Shattered Europe’s Energy Calculus
The sudden closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted roughly 700 oil cargoes, representing about $40 billion in trade, and exposed the vulnerability of Europe’s post‑2022 energy strategy. Simultaneously, Russia warned it could exit the European market before any formal ban,...
South Korea Mulls First Oil Price Cap in 30 Years
South Korea is considering to introduce an oil price cap for the first time in 30 years 🇰🇷 🛢️ It is being considered carefully because of possible side effects including market distortions and fiscal burdens, according to Yonhap https://t.co/r66h5y13D6
Helium Concerns Overblown; Oil and JKM Drive Korean Stocks
This is very reminiscent of the “WDC is a zero because of neon gas shortage from Ukraine” episode. The impact of higher oil, or more importantly JKM prices, for Korean equities is a real discussion. This helium stuff is not though.
Mideast War Week Wields High Frequency Onslaught
MSCI stock index gains have halved to a 7% year‑to‑date increase, while JP Morgan’s local and hard‑currency corporate and sovereign bonds are up about 1% YTD. The escalating Israel‑US versus Iran war is drawing parallels to the Russia‑Ukraine conflict’s global market...
US Beef Supply Relies Heavily on Mexican Cattle
"Texas Feedlot Operators Explain Why U.S. Beef Supply Depends on Mexican Cattle Imports" https://t.co/D3IHviRfRg https://t.co/fO9Ac9MceR
IEA‑Trump Alliance Risks Oil Glut, Markets Unconvinced
Looks like the start of a beautiful “oil glut” partnership between the IEA and the Trump administration. Markets may have other ideas. #OilMarkets #EnergyPolicy #IEA #Geopolitics #EnergySecurity https://t.co/IPd77wk6Q7
Market Expectations of Inflation
Friday’s 5‑year Treasury‑TIPS breakeven spread sits above the Federal Reserve’s 2 % inflation target, mirroring the Federal Reserve’s Dodd‑Katz‑Wright (DKW) expected inflation series. Both metrics suggest market participants price in CPI inflation well above 2 % for the medium term. Kalshi’s latest...
Hormuz Crisis Proves Oil Supply Far From Abundant
Claims that the world is “well supplied with oil” during a Hormuz crisis are obviously false @SecScottBessent With 35% of maritime oil flows offline, your comments are at best out-of-touch with reality. At worst, they're lies #OilMarkets #Hormuz #EnergySecurity #IranWar #Geopolitics
Tehran Fuel Depot Hit, Iran’s Domestic Supply Crippled
Strike on a Teheran fuel depot is unconfirmed @shanaka86 If true, it's about domestic fuel, not oil exports The target choice matters. It squeezes Iran internally without blowing up global oil markets. #IranWar #oilmarkets #Hormuz #EnergySecurity #Geopolitics
Adnoc Adjusts Flows, Deliveries to Maintain Supplies
Abu Dhabi’s state‑owned oil giant Adnoc announced it has activated contingency protocols to keep crude flowing despite the Iran‑US‑Israel conflict disrupting tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The company is adjusting offshore production, leveraging the 1.5 million b/d ADCOP pipeline that...
Hormuz Traffic Stalls; Iran Maintains Chokepoint Control
The Strait of Hormuz has seen virtually ZERO movement in the past 24 hours. IRAN CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE KEY CHOKEPOINT IN THE GULF.
Everyone's Watching Fertilizer Stocks. The Real Hormuz Agriculture Trade Is in South America.
The sudden closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered a rapid surge in urea prices, prompting sell‑side analysts to recommend buying North American nitrogen producers such as CF Industries, Nutrien and Mosaic. The logic hinged on the fact that roughly...
Kuwait Cuts Crude Output on Hormuz Disruption: Update
Kuwait’s state‑owned oil company KPC announced a precautionary cut to crude output and refinery runs after the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut down oil exports amid escalating conflict between the US, Israel and Iran. The firm issued a force majeure...
Second Bulk Carrier Claiming To Be Chinese Passes Through Hormuz
A second bulk carrier, the Liberia‑flagged Sino Ocean, announced Chinese ownership while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, joining Iron Maiden that did the same earlier this week. Both vessels used destination signals like “CHINA OWNER” to seek safe passage amid...
U.S. Debt Outpaces Growth, Threatening Investor Portfolios
Jerome Powell warns the U.S. is on an unsustainable fiscal path, with national debt growing faster than the economy. Investors, learn how this affects the stock market, portfolio risk, and long-term wealth building. Smart value investing can protect your financial...
Iran Conflict Fuels Endless Oil‑price, Russia‑Ukraine Funding Loop
So the longer the Iran conflict lasts... 1. The longer oil prices are higher 2. The longer the Trump admin allows Russian oil to be sold without sanctions 3. The more financial firepower Russia has to support Iran to prolong the conflict ...rinse and...
Kuwait Cuts Crude Output After Hormuz Disruption
Kuwait's state‑owned oil company KPC announced a precautionary cut to crude production and refinery runs after the Strait of Hormuz became effectively closed following U.S. and Israeli air strikes on Iran. In February, Kuwait produced 2.59 million barrels per day, with...
Marcos Departs for US Visit on Sunday
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. departs for a working visit to New York on March 8, where he will address the United Nations General Assembly and the Commission on the Status of Women. He will call for peace in the Middle East,...
Pakistan Seeks Saudi Red Sea Route for Oil After Iran Closes Hormuz
Pakistan is turning to Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea corridor to import crude after Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz following recent U.S.–Israeli strikes. The disruption threatens Pakistan’s already tight fuel supply, prompting the government to adopt aggressive conservation policies,...
Indo-US Trade Talks Reset; Deal Now Expected in 3-4 Months
Indo‑US trade talks have been reset after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, activating the joint statement’s review clause. Both governments now have a three‑to‑four‑month window to reassess the proposed preferential...
George Answers Your Questions: First Thoughts on the Attack on Iran
George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures provides his first assessment of the recent attack on Iran, describing the immediate strategic context and the organization’s internal response. He explains that Geopolitical Futures has moved to a “Red Alert” posture, mirroring past crisis...
The Acceleration
The blog post claims that within a week the Trump administration is moving toward a ground invasion of Iran, citing rumors of U.S. special forces embedded with Kurdish fighters and coordinated air strikes with Israel. It asserts that Russia is...
Singapore Airlines Suspends Singapore‑Dubai Flights Until 2026
Singapore Airlines has cancelled all flights to and from Singapore-Dubai until 15 March 2026 due to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East.
Iran Signals Possible De‑Escalation, Strait Oil Flow Uncertain
Neighbouring countries will no longer be targeted, unless attacks originate from there, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian says. What does this mean? — This could be the first sign of de-escalation in the one-week-old war. — Time will tell if Pezeshkian was actually speaking...
The China 5: Trade Flows, Housing Stalls & K-Economy
China’s export sector remains robust, buoyed by deep‑seated cost advantages and policy support, while domestic demand continues to falter. Container freight rates edged higher despite Iran‑related shipping risks, and real‑estate prices and sales plunged 27% year‑on‑year. The economy is increasingly...
Trump's Iran War Drains Nearly $1 Billion Daily
CNN reports that Trump's war in Iran is costing the US more than $890 MILLION PER DAY. WAR = MASSIVE COST = FISCAL PROBLEMS. https://t.co/NDO5P1kaiE
Israel's 1.8% Inflation Matches Golden Money‑supply Growth
Israel’s inflation is 1.8%/yr. Israel’s broad money supply is growing at 8.1%/yr. That's WITHIN Hanke's Golden Growth Rate range of 7.7%-9.7%/yr, a rate consistent w/ hitting Israel’s 1%-3%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/CWltetUlYU
Commerce Ministry Assures of Restoration of Full RoDTEP Benefits to Exporters From April 1: FIEO
India's Commerce Ministry announced that the full Remission of Duties and Taxes on Exported Products (RoDTEP) benefits will be reinstated from April 1, 2026, after a temporary 50% reduction that lasted until March 31. The scheme, which refunds 0.3%‑3.9% of...
Mexico's Inflation Aligns with Hanke's Golden Money Growth
Mexico’s inflation is 3.8%/yr. Mexico’s money supply (M4) is growing at 9.2%/yr. That's WITHIN Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 7.3%-9.3%/yr, a rate consistent w/ hitting Mexico’s 2%-4%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/jQ05GUvmPW
Markets Silence Geopolitics Until Crisis Strikes
I originally published this financial history article in January 2023, but its core point about how markets have a habit of treating geopolitical risk as background noise right up until the moment it’s not seems relevant again. https://t.co/KjyIjzqpnb
US Manufacturing Slows; Iraq Conflict Could Deepen Supply Chain Strain
PMI shows US manufacturing softness. That means supply chains too. What will the Iraq war do?
Kuwait's Forced Oil Shutdown Deepens Economic Crisis
Adding to Kuwait's economic misery, it has just been forced to shut down its oil production. Since the Global Financial Crisis, Kuwait's economy has tanked. Turkey's has boomed. And contrary to WESTERN PROPAGANDA, Iran's did not collapse, prior to the US-Israeli...
Buy‑the‑dip Mindset May Fail After Latest Shock
Following geopolitical shocks, investors have been conditioned to buy the dip. THIS TIME THEY MIGHT BE WRONG. https://t.co/rbiIiiZSzE
Bessent Likely to Lift Sanctions on Russian Oil
To avoid further panic in the oil markets, I anticipate that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will be forced to "unsanction" more Russian oil trapped in the sanctioned shadow fleet next week. SANCTIONS CREATE NOTHING BUT TROUBLE. IT'S TIME FOR BESSENT...
Foreign Investors Boost US Assets 31% in 2025
Despite what you read daily in the press, the de-dollarization narrative doesn’t have legs. In 2025, overseas investors bought a net $1.55 trillion in long term US financial assets. That’s UP 31.4% since 2024. https://t.co/NUFKLfdh4l
Geopolitical Tensions Meet Key US Inflation Data This Week
Iran war headlines will be in focus this week but US inflation will also be front and center. Here are the reports to watch 👇 🇺🇸 US -CPI -Personal Income/Spending -UMich Sentiment Index -Durable Goods -Housing Data 🇪🇺 EZ -EZ & GE IP -GE Trade 🇨🇦 CA -Jobs -Trade
Dollar Weakness, Not $100 Oil, Drives the Trade
In the space of one week, we've gone from everyone saying oil prices would barely move to now everyone falling over themselves predicting $100 oil. Whatever. I don't think that's where the trade is. The trade is in the Dollar,...
Japan's Debt Limits Yen Defense Amid Market Shocks
In trade-weighted terms, the Yen is lower now than mid-2024 when Japan intervened to prop it up. Japan's high public debt is a terrible weakness. When unexpected shocks come along - like war in Iran - its hands are tied...
Reopening Hormuz Strait Essential to Curb Oil Price Surge
STRAIT OF HORMUZ re-opening is central to any effort to prevent another spike in oil prices: https://t.co/hWRuSylzaC
Polymarket Predicts US Troops in Iran by Year‑end
MASSIVE: Polymarket traders expect US forces to enter Iran before the end of the year. https://t.co/2rC7Fs38kh